EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by ainsworth74, 23 Jun 2016.

  1. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    That really is not true. For a long time, the Remainers in Parliament went along with the referendum result and went along with preparations for Brexit. The deal on offer from the EU was rejected when some remainers and some leavers voted against it. While there are undoubtedly a few people on the Remain side who won't accept anything other than revoking Article 50, I'm pretty sure you'll find the vast majority would be happy to support either a referendum on a specific deal, or would vote for a deal that they felt didn't harm the UK.
     
  2. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    What went through the minds of individual MPs in the days after the referendum is something we won't ever know, however I remember it wasn't uncommon on twitter to see people tweeting like "we don't have to have this". It's quite obvious there was always a segment of the remain contingent who were never going to accept the referendum result come what may. I suspect it's quite probable this also applied to some MPs.

    We even now have the likes of the Liberal Democrats implying that they likely wouldn't accept a second referendum producing a leave result!

    Meanwhile there's the usual deadlock in Northern Ireland, we can't have a hard border because that seems to upset everyone, but we also can't have a special NI-only backstop as that upsets the DUP. The latter arrangement might very well have been in place now had May not screwed up the general election.
     
  3. Killingworth

    Killingworth Established Member

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    Given that a Brexiteer had already started a petition for a second referendum before the result of the first was declared it comes a bit rich when Brexiteers expect all who voted to remain to immediately change their minds. Farage had accepted he'd lost - until he heard the result gave his side the win. We can have little doubt that 3 years after a similar narrow vote the other way he and his followers would have been agitating for another vote. In his position I would, and in the LibDems position I'd carry on advocating Remain as long as possible.

    What any of us do once we've crashed out, or exited in more orderly fashion, may depend on factors that will no longer be under our control.

    Of course the Northern Ireland situation would be easier if the politicians over there had not deadlocked their own Parliament out of action - and that's what we're in danger of doing over here.
     
  4. Nagora

    Nagora Member

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    I'm saying that civil unrest is the risk no matter what happens now because no one has seriously tried to create a consensus or compromise. It seems clear that there's trouble brewing in Scotland and NI if we leave; I thought I mentioned that - oh, yes, I did.

    Well they've bollocked that up then. A parliament where the government can do nothing but which can't go to the polls for a mandate is a minor national disaster - another great leaving present from Nick "Trust Me" Clegg and his fixed term parliament stupidity.
     
  5. Nagora

    Nagora Member

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    The issue with the backstop for the DUP (and others) is the lack of a end-by date. The EU want it to be essentially permanent.

    The Hard Border™ is a strange little-green-men thing that people keep talking about but seems to have little actual existence. In the 40 years or so I lived in NI and travelled to The South I never saw a border post manned by anything more official than a plastic chair. The posts were there but there was very little "hard" about them. People confuse army posts intended to slow or catch armed attackers with some sort of entry/exit system for normal people.

    The border was never very hard. The Irish didn't care about the border when people were being killed and they're not going to start caring now; the British only really worried about terrorists and so the plastic chairs were empty unless there was some specific alert. So who's going to enforce the Hard Border? Germany? That at least would be funny.
     
  6. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    I would say that there's a lot that the Government could do. They could, for example, start seriously trying to negotiate a deal. Or they could ask for an extension so they can leave Brexit for a few months and get on with running the country - to take two examples. Or they arrange a referendum on some specific Brexit arrangement - which realisitically, is probably the only this whole thing might get resolved. The reason the Government seems boxed in is because Boris has (presumably for purely electoral purposes) set himself in thrall to the hardcore Brexiteers in the Tory Party, as well as to his desire to neutralise the Brexit party electorally - and to achieve that he has set this daft arbitrary deadline of 31 October, refusing to countenance the obviously very sensible step of extending the deadline if he can't negotiate a reasonable deal by that date.

    As for the fixed term Parliament act - many other countries seem to manage with fixed terms. And it does have the huge advantage that it makes it harder for the Government to manipulate election dates to suit their own electoral purposes.
     
  7. dosxuk

    dosxuk Member

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    All of that could have been solved by May finding out what Parliament would have voted for, before going to the EU with her red lines and spending 18 months refusing to talk about what we actually wanted.

    If the government can't be bothered to find and build a consensus, they can hardly complain that people aren't getting on board with their plans. And the more they state that their plan is the only plan, the more people will stick to their own plan being the direct course.

    If we'd ended up with a plan for leaving the EU but staying in the common market, many remainers would have accepted this as a compromise. Sure, the ERG wouldn't have been on board, but you'd have got swathes of the Labour benches on board, including Corbyn.
     
  8. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    No, the Government can't one thing - leave with no deal. The other options available include: revoking Article 50, requesting an extension on the basis that there will be an election or new referendum, bringing a new deal to Parliament or bringing the existing deal back without insisting on the 'red lines'.
     
  9. dosxuk

    dosxuk Member

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    And now the Scottish Courts have decided the prorogration is unlawful.
     
  10. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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    Even then, the Government can leave with no deal on October 31st if it persuades Parliament to pass a motion saying it's happy for that to happen (and there's nothing to stop it happening at any further date either).
     
  11. Senex

    Senex Established Member

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    Well put. but unfortunately both May and Johnson have shewn all along that they are concerned only with trying (not very successfully!) to keep the Conservative Party together. On a matter of such importance, neither has been prepared to make any move at all to find any consensus between parties, let alone anything that might try and bring reconciliation after a referendum victory won by such a small majority. Even when May did finally claim to be consulting other parties, she appears to have been singularly inflexible.

    Addition: And things aren't helped when Johnson describes 52 to 49 as "the emphatic verdict of the referendum", as he was quoted as doing on a string of news broadcasts yesterday, as for example the Today programme at 6 a.m., 2 hours and 2½ minutes in, https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00088m9.
     
    Last edited: 11 Sep 2019
  12. nlogax

    nlogax Established Member

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    I have zero faith in the government abiding by that bill and the law. It is widely believed that Dominic Cummings and his fellow advisors have something in the works which may mean the PM avoids returning to the EU with a request for extending the leaving date.
     
  13. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    Perhaps, you know, like Farage and his army of chums who accepted the result of the last refferendum........................................

    We could have been finished with all this if the ERG nut jobs had backed their leaders deal. Perhaps they are guilty of what you ascribe to remainers above ;)

    I am sure he does. His plan hasn't worked that well so far!
     
  14. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    Hey, why not. We've already got the Executive and the Legislature at loggerheads, might as well get the Judiciary involved too!
     
  15. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    The legislature should have just amended the FTPA to hold an immediate pre-brexit eelction (voting 24th October) and ended this deadlock.

    They chose not to do so because they are terrified that Boris will win and Brexit will occur.
     
  16. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    amended for accuracy - avoiding the harmful no deal Brexit is the whole point of this argument and we are in this situation because ERG nut jobs wouldn't back their leader in delivering Brexit becuase
     
  17. nlogax

    nlogax Established Member

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    Exactly, and thank you. This is the point that many Leave voters seem to be wilfully ignoring.
     
  18. nlogax

    nlogax Established Member

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    Let's see how the Supreme Court rules next week when looking at the prorogation appeals..
     
  19. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    I voted remain. I think leaving is wrong and potentially very damaging. However, I accept that we will leave because we as a country voted to leave. I do not accept that we leave with no deal mainly because I remember what the chancers in charge now said about no deal then and the promises they made.

    I maintain this is all a game to further the agenda and ambitions of one Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
     
  20. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    I would agree with this. The country did vote to leave, but I cannot envisage a scenario where a majority voted for "no deal" - a lot of Leave voters would have voted for something like May's deal, and others for EEA/EFTA etc. No deal is a very minority, very right wing ideal.
     
  21. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    No, we are in this situation because the current Parliament refuses to back a deal, refuses to revoke, refuses to hold a new election or a new referendum.

    It in fact refuses to do anything substantial because it is terrified the public might not like it.

    We are stuck in this paralysis indefinitely because they are terrified that Brexit might happen, that Corbyn might become prime minister or that they might lose their seats in the backlash from revoking.
     
  22. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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    I think the fear that (no-deal) brexit will occur is greater than the fear of losing the election.

    I'm not sure if specifying the date in law would trump the Prime Minister's prerogative to change the date of an election. There are good reasons for this power: such as a national emergency like Fukushima disaster, widespread flooding, or if the Electoral Commission said that there was some serious irregularity or impropriety that meant it had to be rescheduled.

    If Parliament is reconvened in the meantime, we may see some movement toward calling an election on a specified date; I doubt that the MPs would be able to spend five weeks in Parliament still sitting on their hands and avoiding an election.
     
  23. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    That is incorrect. Parliament, led by a Conservative/DUP "coalition" refused to agree the deal on the table. That Conservative/DUP "coalition" ( with a couple of silly Labour types like Hoey) failed to support their leader because they wanted a fantasy unicorn world rather than a pragmatic if imperfecet agreement. They are the ones responsible for this situation. People Like Mogg and his ERG chums are the ones on the block for this. It isnt Parliament. It is brexit extremists to blame.

    The deal was there. The Tories rejected it.

    PS it is absolutely the fear of a damaging no deal and an unwillingness to facilitate the frankly cack handed machinations of Johsnon & Cummings that is driving current behaviour. Corbyn thinks he will win an election ffs!
     
  24. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    The PMs power to set the date of a snap election is not granted by prerogative powers.
    It is specifically granted by the FTPA.
    If the FPTA is amended to require an election on the 24th October then the PM can't stop it.
     
  25. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    Parliament rejected it.
    Unless you think opposition MPs didn't get to vote?

    Corbyn is not the labour parliamentary party, almost all of whom hate him.

    The current remain-Blatcherite parliament loses badly in an election because either Corbyn wins or Boris does.
    MPsy are still clinging to the 1979 consensus and can't face the reality that it's dead
     
  26. Killingworth

    Killingworth Established Member

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    More terrified to hold an election or a referendum because of the additional chaos either would provide. An election where Boris gets the largest number of seats is very likely, but it's a total lottery how the rest would be split. A referendum would provide immense controversy just deciding the terms!

    Just wait and see. Stability is not something to bet on, but Brexit is likely to have been achieved by 1st January, just as long as Boris can be persuaded not to die in his ditch.

    Anyway, his next big project is the Boris Bridge to Ireland, uniting the not yet independent Scotland with the bolshie folks who have had their Stormont parliament suspended since their last election on 2nd March 2017.
     
  27. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    I remind the forum that in the April round of votes it was a whipped Conservative vote that prevented any of the compromises from being accepted.
     
  28. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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    Ah, I'd interpreted your post as discussing the "Notwithstanding..." method of passing an act to bypass the FTPA (which would presumably mean rolling back to the system prior to the FTPA).

    Going for amending the FTPA itself would require the same approval of both houses (three readings and potential amendments from each), and I suspect the Lords would have been very reluctant to try rushing through amendments to statute last week.

    If it now emerges that Parliament will reconvene this month, and isn't in such a rush any more, I could see this option becoming a viable one.
     
  29. dosxuk

    dosxuk Member

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    Nobody has put forward a motion to amend the FTPA. The votes they have held are allowed for under the act are unamenable, and would allow the government to change the date of an election.

    Amending the act to remove that ability would be unlikely to pass either, as that ability can (and has, in 2001 most recently) be used appropriately and sensibly.
     
  30. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    In all fairness I think it was right not to vote for the deal whilst it contained the backstop in its current form. Furthermore, the heavy focus on the backstop meant other aspects weren’t subject to much scrutiny, particularly in the wider media.

    There may have been an understandable urge to agree to something in order to get things moving, however I think this would have gone on to be viewed as a mistake.
     

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