EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[SteveP29]

Saturday's going to be too much. Maybe a good day to turn off the phone, avoid the TV, get some fresh air..

Thankfully, proper football is back and a trip to Newcastle on the train will keep me away from news bulletins

 

[DarloRich]

so just to be clear: The fantastic deal we have on the table now, negotiated by the wonderful Johnson, is worse than the deal negotiated by the cowardly May and looks very much like an early offer made by the EU?

 

[Peter Kelford]

so just to be clear: The fantastic deal we have on the table now, negotiated by the wonderful Johnson, is worse than the deal negotiated by the cowardly May and looks very much like an early offer made by the EU?

Yes. The Backstop was an objectionable last resort. The backstop is now a somewhat unenforceable permanent plan.

 

[DarloRich]

Boris doesn't have to not ask for an extension. I believe the EU has said they won't grant one, this is the deal.

No they haven't. Jean-Claude Juncker has said he isnt minded to offer a "prolongation". It is not within his gift to do so anyway!

 

[YorkshireBear]

No they haven't. Jean-Claude Juncker has said he isnt minded to offer a "prolongation". It is not within his gift to do so anyway!

I've seen the error of my ways I misunderstood it

 

[Esker-pades]

P.S. Update from F.T. tonight, 318 for, 321 against. Wow!

There seems to be a trent towards support. The BBC reported it yesterday evening at 317 v 322.

My hope is that an amendment is passed so that there has to be a confirmatory referendum between this deal and no Brexit. How much of a chance that has of happening, I don't know.

 

[DarloRich]

So to be clear part 2: Not only do we have worse deal than the deal negotiated by the cowardly May we have a deal that, according to hateful experts, will be more damaging to the economy than the cowardly May deal.

insert hand clap icon here

 

[nlogax]

Stage 1 of (hundreds) nearly complete. The final stage will see the UK return to the EU, or whatever it's called by the time it happens.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There seems to be a trent towards support. The BBC reported it yesterday evening at 317 v 322.

A fair few Remainers are starting to tend to the idea that because we've messed the EU round so much we can't really be proper respected members any more so might as well leave.

 

[Killingworth]

A fair few Remainers are starting to tend to the idea that because we've messed the EU round so much we can't really be proper respected members any more so might as well leave.

Sad to say that's almost certainly right. Without a clear standard bearer for Remain the emotive 'Leave means Leave' campaigning has convinced enough that There Is No Alternative. And without that leader the EU sees it too. Remainers are seen as a rag tag mob of miscontents unable to coalesce around any leader or leadership team.

Which just goes to prove that democracy is a curious, nay dangerous thing. Being right is not enough to win any ballot. It means convincing enough who originally disagree, or don't know, that is the right answer. That didn't happen 3 years ago and not enough has changed since. Those in the middle just want 'it' over, for better or worse. The right answer starting from here is looking like leave.

Which brings us to the practical details we'll be discovering over the next few years. Future elections will be fought on manifestos no voter will want to accept 100%, even the MPs will have some reservations. We'll vote for the highlights in a manifesto (that we almost certainly won't have fully read) that suits us best at the time, sometimes tempered by the character of the candidates. Between elections situations change and any government has to move with the times. It could be said that is where we are now.

 

[DarloRich]

Remainers are seen as a rag tag mob of miscontents unable to coalesce around any leader or leadership team.

It simply goes to show how useless Corbyn is. The leader of the opposition should be that rallying point. He isnt because he is a useless old fool who is anti EU and will be very pleased to see us out that institution because he thinks that will help him deliver his fantasy world!

Which brings us to the practical details we'll be discovering over the next few years. Future elections will be fought on manifestos no voter will want to accept 100%, even the MPs will have some reservations. We'll vote for the highlights in a manifesto (that we almost certainly won't have fully read) that suits us best at the time, sometimes tempered by the character of the candidates. Between elections situations change and any government has to move with the times. It could be said that is where we are now.

that is what happens now! no one expect saddos like me read manifestos!

 

[AlterEgo]

I’m just glad to see the DUP dumped on from a terrific height.

 

[3141]

I voted to Remain, but the result was to leave, and I'm not at all sure that if there was another in/out referendum the result would be different. And if it was, the strength of feeling on the part of some leavers means the matter would not be fully resolved and divisions between the two viewpoints would probably deepen. The result of a referendum with a choice between this deal or remaining is also hard to assess.

If Parliament rejects this deal, will the EU be prepared to negotiate something different? How different would it have to be to get through Parliament? The most likely result of this deal failing to get through is a general election. Boris and co. would say they are the ones who can ensure the current deal gets through Parliament and we finally leave. If there is still a majority amongst voters in favour of leaving he might win, unless the pro-leave vote was split between Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Corbyn is so confused I don't know what he'd campaign for, but he risks many Labour supporters voting for the Brexit Party and therefore his party would fail to win a majority. Maybe no party would have a majority, and we'd still be stuck in uncertainty.

If hoping for a reversal of the 2016 referendum outcome is unrealistic, then going for Boris's deal is probably the best option (or the least bad one) that's now available. But that is also likely to lead to an election, which Boris would have a strong chance of winning, assuming that the Brexit Party doesn't get much support because it would be seen to have achieved its objective. However, Labour might have a chance, if Labour leavers switched their support back to it.

This mess, and the one we may still be in after the next election, all follows from the disastrous outcome of the referendum three years ago. I'm feeling that our best chance of moving forward is for the most recent deal to be agreed, even though there are fears that Brexiteer pressure may lead to its being abandoned in a few months' time and a no deal outcome replacing it.

 

[nlogax]

I’m just glad to see the DUP dumped on from a terrific height.

Awful crowd. Bunch of complete dinosaurs insistent on bringing back the 1970s.

 

[Howardh]

If the deal goes through, we will most likely have an extension to the transition period (so we are as good as in the Eu for several years) and hopefully a new government (Labour coalition) will secure a much better relationship than the Tories ever would. Could still keep our freedom of movement.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If Parliament rejects this deal, will the EU be prepared to negotiate something different? How different would it have to be to get through Parliament? The most likely result of this deal failing to get through is a general election. Boris and co. would say they are the ones who can ensure the current deal gets through Parliament and we finally leave. If there is still a majority amongst voters in favour of leaving he might win, unless the pro-leave vote was split between Conservatives and the Brexit Party. Corbyn is so confused I don't know what he'd campaign for, but he risks many Labour supporters voting for the Brexit Party and therefore his party would fail to win a majority. Maybe no party would have a majority, and we'd still be stuck in uncertainty.

My prediction: If Parliament rejects the deal and we get an election, the Brexit party will probably campaign for No-Deal, arguing that Boris's deal is a sell-out. The Tories will campaign for Boris's deal, and the Leave vote will be split, making a hung Parliament likely. I would expect that would quickly result in a 2nd referendum that puts staying in vs leaving immediately with a specific pre-arranged deal.

If Parliament accepts the deal, we'll quickly have a general election anyway, which the Tories are likely to win outright because we'll have left the EU so the Brexit Party won't have any reason to hoover up Tory votes.

 

[Killingworth]

If the deal goes through, we will most likely have an extension to the transition period (so we are as good as in the Eu for several years) and hopefully a new government (Labour coalition) will secure a much better relationship than the Tories ever would. Could still keep our freedom of movement.

When Brexit is voted through what advantage is there for Labour to back an election? Under Corbyn they'll lose so badly they'll be unable to seriously harry the government. Corbyn isn't so stupid that he doesn't know this, deep in his heart. How he handles it will be interesting.

ScotNats will be after their referendum, Stormont might get reopened, the Welsh will have to think again, the Brexit party won't have much reason to exist and as for the LibDems, if the deal goes through where does their Remain policy put them? Certainly not the official opposition.

 

[fowler9]

I'm feeling very pessimistic. I'm a remainer but part of me just wants this deal to go through to calm things down. Nationalism is a dangerous thing though. I am currently reading a book called HHhH about Operation Anthropoid and it is scary how easily people like Reinhard Heydrich got in to power. I read the Daily Mail yesterday and it was horrible how sycophantic they were about the deal. Going on about how all the dishonest foreigners were just wanting to be near our glorious leader Johnson.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I'm feeling very pessimistic. I'm a remainer but part of me just wants this deal to go through to calm things down. Nationalism is a dangerous thing though. I am currently reading a book called HHhH about Operation Anthropoid and it is scary how easily people like Reinhard Heydrich got in to power. I read the Daily Mail yesterday and it was horrible how sycophantic they were about the deal. Going on about how all the dishonest foreigners were just wanting to be near our glorious leader Johnson.

Nationalism can be dangerous, but generally speaking, it isn't really. For instance, wanting to buy purely, or as much as possible, British agriculture when doing your shopping is a form of nationalism, because your putting your nation's interest first before any others and perhaps even your own personal finances.

Nationalism is also an important reference in a very multifaceted and connected world for people to orient themselves amongst many other nations, cultures and societies. Nationalism becomes a problem when people turn to nationalism out of anger as a means of a solution to a problem, such as the "foreigners are taking all our jobs sterotype." When this kind of nationalism arises, there is often at the source, some kind of genuine problem that is either not acknowleged or rectified by the government or the problem is simply bigger than the government can handle-causing people to turn emphatically to nationalism-although these cases are much more rare.

The trouble, with being an anti-nationalist and pro-European, is that the EU is effectively nationalist-very much so. It's founding objective is to create an "ever closer union". Which can only mean a country of what could potentially be of incredible power. Even Michael Heseltine himself, probably the most pro-European British politican, stated his love of Europe is anchored in a quest for greater power. A true internationalist should treat the EU with much weariness, because the EU still marshals people along ethnic and religous lines-broadly speaking. A true international organisation that works for the benefit of humanity would transcend both national and continental borders.

Furthermore, having a world of larger continental economic blocs just creates quasi-super states that inevitably become more hungry for resources and more hawkish as their millitary potential grows-fuelling a toxic mix of more nationalism that replaced the "minor" nationalism of the original independent sovereign states. The current world we have, of nations generally accepting that co-operation is the way forward, with very few world spanning millitaries capable of enacting massive nationalist policy around the world by single countries-is a much better model in my view.

 

[Aictos]

I don't know if it's just me but I can't see Parliament ever agreeing to any deal seeing as they keep putting obstruction after obstruction as they seen hell bent on stopping Brexit rather then get on with it and then work to heal divisions between those who wanted to leave and those who wanted to remain.

Today is just a example of the great work that Parliament is doing to prevent any kind of deal.

 

[DarloRich]

I’m just glad to see the DUP dumped on from a terrific height.

Seema the DUP were the ones doing tbe dumping this afternoon...........

 

[edwin_m]

I don't know if it's just me but I can't see Parliament ever agreeing to any deal seeing as they keep putting obstruction after obstruction as they seen hell bent on stopping Brexit rather then get on with it and then work to heal divisions between those who wanted to leave and those who wanted to remain.

Today is just a example of the great work that Parliament is doing to prevent any kind of deal.

That reflects opinion polls and the result of the 2017 election. Support for Brexit is nowhere near as much as the people who are pushing it claim it is - on the basis of a referendum over three years ago when the campaign was based on falsehoods and the leave option now looks nothing like what it did then. Effectively the people were bounced into agreeing something which could never happen, and there is no majority for any single Leave option in Parliament or in the population.

This deal is a good deal worse than the previous deal for all but a small minority. It kicks the big decisions about the UK's future relationship with the EU down the road into the free trade agreement. So while May's deal was defeated largely because some pro-Brexit factions didn't like the intended long-term relationship, if this deal is accepted that big battle is still to come. Accepting the deal and leaving the EU means there is no chance of avoiding that battle because there is no easy way back in.

 

[Aictos]

That reflects opinion polls and the result of the 2017 election. Support for Brexit is nowhere near as much as the people who are pushing it claim it is - on the basis of a referendum over three years ago when the campaign was based on falsehoods and the leave option now looks nothing like what it did then. Effectively the people were bounced into agreeing something which could never happen, and there is no majority for any single Leave option in Parliament or in the population.

This deal is a good deal worse than the previous deal for all but a small minority. It kicks the big decisions about the UK's future relationship with the EU down the road into the free trade agreement. So while May's deal was defeated largely because some pro-Brexit factions didn't like the intended long-term relationship, if this deal is accepted that big battle is still to come. Accepting the deal and leaving the EU means there is no chance of avoiding that battle because there is no easy way back in.

I’m just fed up of it, surely it would be easier to just reform the EU into the United States of Europe etc... I am being sarky about that last point tho!

 

[talltim]

Looks like the government has wasted yet more money with their “fewer than x days until Brexit” advertising campaign. At least they used fewer, rather than less, but it’s just another lie to go with all the rest.

 

[najaB]

Looks like the government has wasted yet more money with their “fewer than x days until Brexit” advertising campaign. At least they used fewer, rather than less, but it’s just another lie to go with all the rest.

I wouldn't say wasted as it's far from certain that we won't leave on October 31st - with or without a deal. Plus, they had to work on the assumption that we would be leaving on the 31st since doing anything else would be tacit admission that BoJo wasn't negotiating in good faith.

 

[dosxuk]

I don't know if it's just me but I can't see Parliament ever agreeing to any deal seeing as they keep putting obstruction after obstruction as they seen hell bent on stopping Brexit rather then get on with it and then work to heal divisions between those who wanted to leave and those who wanted to remain.

Today is just a example of the great work that Parliament is doing to prevent any kind of deal.

I'm confident that if someone put forward a deal that had support from the majority of parliament, it would go through. If our leaders are unable to work with the other 600 odd MPs to actually discuss what sort of things they would back, instead going down the "we know best, and you have to vote for this or else" we would not be in this situation.

If they had done their "indicitive votes" session earlier in the year as a STV style vote rather than a series of yes-no votes, we would have had a route which most of parliament could support by now. Unfortunately that's no where near the deal that May / Johnson have stuck their hats to, so alternatives are not permitted.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm confident that if someone put forward a deal that had support from the majority of parliament, it would go through. If our leaders are unable to work with the other 600 odd MPs to actually discuss what sort of things they would back, instead going down the "we know best, and you have to vote for this or else" we would not be in this situation.

If they had done their "indicitive votes" session earlier in the year as a STV style vote rather than a series of yes-no votes, we would have had a route which most of parliament could support by now. Unfortunately that's no where near the deal that May / Johnson have stuck their hats to, so alternatives are not permitted.

And the majority of the public supports remaining anyway.

 

[superkev]

I'm amazed the EU hasn't by now got fed up an just said "goodbye, see how you go" to the uk.
After all they stand to gain a whole car industry, probably most of our aerospace and a few others too.
Boris would need our former contribution to pay for the dole queue.
K

 

[Peter Kelford]

I'm amazed the EU hasn't by now got fed up an just said "goodbye, see how you go" to the uk.
After all they stand to gain a whole car industry, probably most of our aerospace and a few others too.
Boris would need our former contribution to pay for the dole queue.
K

It shows that the EU are a decent bunch...

 

[Puffing Devil]

It shows that the EU are a decent bunch...

They will still be hurt if we leave, not as much as us, but still hurt. If we can be persuaded to stay, I think they will allow the extension. I would think that it's on the basis we have a GE or a referendum.