Exit strategy predictions

[matt_world2004]

If there is a an app , it would be much better if there is a link to a person's Google latitude/timeline account. This saves battery by not constantly pinging Bluetooth and it allows people to be warned retroactively

 

[Meerkat]

Actually, I think schools certainly shouldn't go back before September. Especially considering the fact that children are super-spreaders.

Are they? Has that been scientifically confirmed now?
These countries that are lauded for large scale early testing - surely they must have enough data about how people caught it to give some vague guidance on relative risks?

Whilst wandering home i pondered a staged pub opening plan - how about local pub only, photo ID required, defined by street name and if not enough pubS then different streets get different days? Would at least restrict the geographical spread of a pub based outbreak. Just tell the big brewers - “You want to open? Get the census data and sort something out!”

 

[edwin_m]

If there is a an app , it would be much better if there is a link to a person's Google latitude/timeline account. This saves battery by not constantly pinging Bluetooth and it allows people to be warned retroactively

Is the positioning accuracy on that good enough to tell if two people have been within 2m rather than say 5m?

 

[Mogster]

Coronavirus: We can cope with peak, hospital bosses say

Thousands of intensive care and hospital beds remain available as the UK heads for a peak in coronavirus cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

Positive news it seems, hospital admissions plateauing, hospitals are coping. Emergency capacity may not be needed, Excel centre still has only low numbers of patients.

How busy are hospitals?
On Tuesday, NHS England medical director Prof Stephen Powis said hospital cases appeared to be "plateauing".

There are about 19,000 patients being treated for coronavirus in UK hospitals.

But more than 30,000 beds had been freed in advance by cancelling non-emergency treatment and quickly discharging patients, allowing hospitals to cope.

The number of intensive-care beds have been doubled to nearly 10,000.

And more than 2,000 of them are still available.

On top of this, the NHS has paid for space in private-sector hospitals, including 8,000 beds, while a series of field hospitals are being planned.

And there are now doubts about whether all these will be needed.

The biggest field hospital, NHS Nightingale in London, has already opened.

It has space for 4,000 patients but has taken only a few dozen so far.

 

[Domh245]

Is the positioning accuracy on that good enough to tell if two people have been within 2m rather than say 5m?

It can (could!) barely follow my walk to uni properly - often tracking me going through other buildings and variously zigzagging along Derby Road! Even when my phone has been in use as a SatNav (and so constantly using the location service) it's had some interesting logging of where it think's I've been. It's of absolutely no use for tracking the sort of distances where there's a likelihood of transmission of the virus

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is the positioning accuracy on that good enough to tell if two people have been within 2m rather than say 5m?

No (particularly not indoors) which is why Bluetooth is being used.

 

[Cardiff123]

Coronavirus: We can cope with peak, hospital bosses say

Thousands of intensive care and hospital beds remain available as the UK heads for a peak in coronavirus cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

Positive news it seems, hospital admissions plateauing, hospitals are coping. Emergency capacity may not be needed, Excel centre still has only low numbers of patients.

Good news that hospitals are coping, but I doubt that we'll see the emergency hospitals that have been set up in the last few weeks just wound down once we're out of lockdown. The emergency hospital capacity that has been set up will most likely be mothballed over the next few months, in anticipation of a second wave of virus cases in the autumn.

 

[takno]

Are they? Has that been scientifically confirmed now?
These countries that are lauded for large scale early testing - surely they must have enough data about how people caught it to give some vague guidance on relative risks?

Whilst wandering home i pondered a staged pub opening plan - how about local pub only, photo ID required, defined by street name and if not enough pubS then different streets get different days? Would at least restrict the geographical spread of a pub based outbreak. Just tell the big brewers - “You want to open? Get the census data and sort something out!”

What on earth would be the point of that? My local is an absolute dive, and if I wanted to hang out with my neighbours I'd shout at them over the fence. I go to the pub to drink decent beer with people I like, and neither of those things is served by access to some government-appointed local for the alcoholics of sector 7

 

[Bletchleyite]

The best way to restrict something that can't be supplied per demand is just to require reservations. Pubs could do that just like restaurants - book a table and a period of time, table service for drinks, and nobody admitted as a walk-in.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

The best way to restrict something that can't be supplied per demand is just to require reservations. Pubs could do that just like restaurants - book a table and a period of time, table service for drinks, and nobody admitted as a walk-in.

That might work for people going out for meals but who on earth would want the hassle of booking in advance if they fancy a swift pint after work or whilst they're out on a walk? In my experience most pub visits tend to be spontaneous rather than planned meticulously.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That might work for people going out for meals but who on earth would want the hassle of booking in advance if they fancy a swift pint after work or whilst they're out on a walk? In my experience most pub visits tend to be spontaneous rather than planned meticulously.

Booking is a lot easier with mobile phones. Most cinema tickets for instance are now not purchased at the venue.

It's not at all unusual to go for a spontaneous meal but to phone the restaurant just before you leave to make sure a table will be available.

 

[Mag_seven]

How many restaurants or pubs would be viable businesses with the amount of custom they would get with social distancing measures in place? I don't think the numbers would add up somehow.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How many restaurants or pubs would be viable businesses with the amount of custom they would get with social distancing measures in place? I don't think the numbers would add up somehow.

Not all of them, clearly. But it'll be adapt or die. Some will I'm sure die, but many will adapt.

 

[bramling]

That might work for people going out for meals but who on earth would want the hassle of booking in advance if they fancy a swift pint after work or whilst they're out on a walk? In my experience most pub visits tend to be spontaneous rather than planned meticulously.

Personally I heavily dislike booking even for meals. If I had to compulsorily book then I probably wouldn't bother.

That may not be a problem as this will probably be countered by what will inevitably be reduced capacity anyway, but then there's still the issue that if only half a restaurant is occupied is the business viable? Those who will be okay I would suspect are those who can offset their losses with takeaways.

Out of interest, does a restaurant make money on takeaways? There won't be the added income from people buying drinks and accompaniments, however likewise there's a reduction in costs presumably (although most fixed costs would be remaining the same, and savings on things like washing up would be negligible).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally I heavily dislike booking even for meals. If I had to compulsorily book then I probably wouldn't bother.

And I dislike booking for rail travel - but I accept it is likely to become necessary for the next year or so if it isn't restricted only to key workers. Better that they are open with reservations than not open at all.

That may not be a problem as this will probably be countered by what will inevitably be reduced capacity anyway, but then there's still the issue that if only half a restaurant is occupied is the business viable? Those who will be okay I would suspect are those who can offset their losses with takeaways.

Out of interest, does a restaurant make money on takeaways? There won't be the added income from people buying drinks and accompaniments, however likewise there's a reduction in costs presumably (although most fixed costs would be remaining the same, and savings on things like washing up would be negligible).

Of course they make money on takeaways - why would they offer them if they didn't?

That said, takeaways will only work for some restaurants. Most people can't cook a decent Indian, Chinese or proper fish and chips at home. But they can produce the garbage foodservice places chuck out using an oven and a microwave just the same.

 

[bramling]

Of course they make money on takeaways - why would they offer them if they didn't?

That said, takeaways will only work for some restaurants. Most people can't cook a decent Indian, Chinese or proper fish and chips at home. But they can produce the garbage foodservice places chuck out using an oven and a microwave just the same.

Perhaps I should rephrase - do they make *much* money on takeaways? I suppose it must be viable to work purely on that basis as there are plenty of takeaway-only places.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Perhaps I should rephrase - do they make *much* money on takeaways? I suppose it must be viable to work purely on that basis as there are plenty of takeaway-only places.

I certainly know of a few small restaurants where takeaway is their main business and the restaurant is a bit on the side. The price of the food is about the same (OK, less tipping, I suppose) and yet you don't have to do anything other than cook it and spend 50p's worth of fuel and a minimum wage member of staff's time delivering it. No service, no cleaning etc.

 

[Meerkat]

I think they should ramp it up in other ways, such as the Government mandating insurers to cover delivery of food items as SD&P and more supermarkets doing essentials boxes with limited choices like Morrisons are doing. An Amazon delivery bod (or whatever) can get round far more houses chucking boxes out than someone who has to unload crates etc, and the orders could be prepared more efficiently.

SD&P?

 

[yorksrob]

That might work for people going out for meals but who on earth would want the hassle of booking in advance if they fancy a swift pint after work or whilst they're out on a walk? In my experience most pub visits tend to be spontaneous rather than planned meticulously.

I would if the alternative was not going to the pub.

 

[Bletchleyite]

SD&P?

Sorry, Social, Domestic and Pleasure (sometimes +commuting) - the form of car insurance cover most people have.

It would appear that some sort of similar deal has already been done for NHS Responder volunteers - normally that would require "volunteer driving" to be added, which many insurers offer as standard but not absolutely all do.

 

[Meerkat]

Sorry, Social, Domestic and Pleasure (sometimes +commuting) - the form of car insurance cover most people have.

It would appear that some sort of similar deal has already been done for NHS Responder volunteers - normally that would require "volunteer driving" to be added, which many insurers offer as standard but not absolutely all do.

That’s what I thought but didn’t see the relevance to Amazon....but think I misunderstood.
Are you suggesting volunteers queue, or volunteers click and collect?

 

[Bletchleyite]

That’s what I thought but didn’t see the relevance to Amazon....but think I misunderstood.
Are you suggesting volunteers queue, or volunteers click and collect?

I'm suggesting it would be easier to recruit people to do deliveries of "food box" type supermarket deliveries if the law was changed to permit them to use their own car and existing insurance policy for the purpose, as it removes the barrier to entry. For money, not volunteers, who have already been considered in this way.

 

[Meerkat]

I'm suggesting it would be easier to recruit people to do deliveries of "food box" type supermarket deliveries if the law was changed to permit them to use their own car and existing insurance policy for the purpose, as it removes the barrier to entry. For money, not volunteers, who have already been considered in this way.

It can’t be that difficult as plenty of Amazon and (particularly) Next deliveries get dropped off by private car round here. I assume companies that size check the drivers are properly insured.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

It can’t be that difficult as plenty of Amazon and (particularly) Next deliveries get dropped off by private car round here. I assume companies that size check the drivers are properly insured.....

I wouldn't bet on it, they're self employed...

 

[mailbyrail]

Did anybody spot the announcement yesterday about the government deciding to give recognition for care workers in the form of a badge?
The Daily Mail seemed to think it was a victory for them, the Daily Mirror was not too impressed. Whichever camp you fall into you might have though, 'Well, at least the Government has done something'.
Except they have done absolutely nothing, like so many of their announcements.
The whole scheme was developed by Care England who represent the industry and announced by them on 26 June 2019

News | Care England

www.careengland.org.uk

 

[takno]

It shouldn’t be necessary to be going to the supermarket more than once or twice a week, yet some people are going there daily. Most of my road for a start - and yes I know they’re doing it as I see them walking past with shopping bags or unloading them from the car.

Perhaps the queues will put a stop to this as people find it an unpleasant experience, but then we get the situation like with the empty honeypot sites - “there’s no one there so it’s not a problem if *I* visit”...

In common with most of the people on my street, I don't have a car. I can carry a couple of days of food for my flat at absolute best. In practice one of us is going out every day. My impression from when I've been there is that some of the customers (presumably those who live alone) don't necessarily need to be there, but are absolutely desperate for some social contact. Since the tills have had screens installed the staff are generally very accommodating of this and are trying their best to help. Honestly though, the number of people who spend most of their life surrounded by people and are now living spending weeks of their lives alone is terrifying.

 

[js1000]

80% of Coronavirus deaths in the UK are in the over 60s.

The way out of this is age-related. The under 40s represent 51% of the population. The first step should be to allow them to get back to work and socialise if they are living with anyone over 40.

Before someone says this is ageist - in the long term this will theoretically protect the older population in the longer term if some immunity is imparted across the younger generations. Their response to Coronavirus is extremely mild and very few will have to be hospitalised although there will be some exceptional deaths admittedly.

Imperial College have been leaning towards this strategy as it is completely logical. But Boris Johnson is somewhat against it as he doesn't want a 'two tier' system. However it does not make any sense to penalise younger, healthier people for no rational reason and may actually provide a longer-term route out this in terms of greater immunity within the population which would benefit the older generation who are more at risk.

 

[Meerkat]

80% of Coronavirus deaths in the UK are in the over 60s.

The way out of this is age-related. The under 40s represent 51% of the population. The first step should be to allow them to get back to work and socialise if they are living with anyone over 40.

Before someone says this is ageist - in the long term this will theoretically protect the older population in the longer term if some immunity is imparted across the younger generations. Their response to Coronavirus is extremely mild and very few will have to be hospitalised although there will be some exceptional deaths admittedly.

Imperial College have been leaning towards this strategy as it is completely logical. But Boris Johnson is somewhat against it as he doesn't want a 'two tier' system. However it does not make any sense to penalise younger, healthier people for no rational reason and may actually provide a longer-term route out this in terms of greater immunity within the population which would benefit the older generation who are more at risk.

Am I misunderstanding or is there a massive logic failure - unlocking people who Do live with over 40’s?

 

[bramling]

Am I misunderstanding or is there a massive logic failure - unlocking people who Do live with over 40’s?

I can see a problem in that if under-40s return to anything like normal life there will be a high chance of spread to older groups. Meanwhile what happens if an under-40 lives with someone who is over-40?

Any strategy that relaxes things for younger groups needs to be very careful that is doesn’t create a disproportionate risk for older groups, especially those in the 40-70 range.

I’m not saying it’s not the makings of an exit route, but there would be major issues which would require working through.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

80% of Coronavirus deaths in the UK are in the over 60s.

The way out of this is age-related. The under 40s represent 51% of the population. The first step should be to allow them to get back to work and socialise if they are living with anyone over 40.

How would this work for those who are in their 50s?