• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Exit strategy predictions

Status
Not open for further replies.

6862

Member
Joined
3 Dec 2014
Messages
506
I can understand that other people, particularly those in a high-risk group, may have an entireley different intrepretation, but at least that's the only interpretation I can use and stay sane. I have not had a face to face conversation with another human being, or seen anything other than the street to the nearest supermarket, and the nearest park, since the lockdown began. If this is going to be life for the next 2 years, or perhaps forever, it's not a life I want to live.

I had my first face to face conversation (2m separation but still technically illegal I suppose!) outside of my household for 4 weeks a few days ago, it was a strange feeling, and in my opinion that in itself is a sign of the damage this has already done to our society. And I feel much the same way about your last sentence!
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

yorkie

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
6 Jun 2005
Messages
67,429
Location
Yorkshire
The way I see it, the restrictions are to protect society, and the health service, from the overall consequences of the level of social contact in society as whole, not the individual from the consequences of their own social activity(which is impossible). The actual risk of contracting the disease from any given activity is very low, and also very difficult to assess. So if the authorities choose allow a particular activity which was previously banned, e.g. outdoor non-contact recreational team sports, I don't see why I shouldn't take part in it, whilst still taking all possible precautions.

I can understand that other people, particularly those in a high-risk group, may have an entireley different intrepretation, but at least that's the only interpretation I can use and stay sane.
Very good post. Absolutely spot on.
I have not had a face to face conversation with another human being, or seen anything other than the street to the nearest supermarket, and the nearest park, since the lockdown began. If this is going to be life for the next 2 years, or perhaps forever, it's not a life I want to live.
I am lucky in my key worker role so I have still been able to have face to face conversations with colleagues.

What I'd recommend is go for a few walks (see my signature!); I can be in the countryside within about 30 minutes of walking or 5 minutes of cycling. I am hoping that being able to play football (outside) will be possible soon.
 

cuccir

Established Member
Joined
18 Nov 2009
Messages
3,659
I don't know but the national stats (reported on the press conference) don't bear it out.

Actually there does seem to be a slight rise in car use since the start of the lockdown; notably the weekend just passed (18-19th April) was quite a bit busier than the three weekends before it. The midweek figures didn't dip in quite the same way as they had in the previous weeks either. This pattern is repeated for bus travel.

It's a little difficult to compare weekday travel as the last two weeks have only been 4 day working weeks (Eg maybe daily use was higher last week as people deferred trips they'd have otherwise done on Bank Holiday Monday?). So I'd hesitate to strongly claim anything about the working week before we have data for this week, but the weekend increase might suggest a few more people are taking short trips for exercise on the weekend, perhaps following clearer guidance that this is allowed? What also stands out is that National Rail hasn't seen any hint of an increase. I think that rail will take much longer than both private transport, which has less infection risk, and bus travel, which is more likely than rail to be used for journeys where there is no alternative, to rise after the first stages of lockdown relaxation.
 

Mogster

Member
Joined
25 Sep 2018
Messages
902
I just don't accept that the potential casualty figures justify this "new normal" that a rather limited range of primarily medical commentators claim we must accept. The death rate from the virus is high but not apocalyptic. The health crisis that threatens to engulf the third world (and quite possibly America) as a direct result of the "new normal" will dwarf deaths from Covid19. By September it's going to be our patriotic duty to save lives by getting back to the old normal as soon as humanly possible

According to the ONS 10,000 people have died with or of Covid so far this year while 30,000 have other influenza like illness (ILI) mentioned on their death certificate.

Obviously seasonal ILI cases are in decline now as we move into Spring, but Covid still has some way to go to catch up.

As you say the numbers of deaths are unusually high, but are still at the top end of the previously experienced range.
 

Carlisle

Established Member
Joined
26 Aug 2012
Messages
4,121
It actually wouldn't half as difficult as you might imagine. My local pub directly prior to closing had changed it's seating arrangements to allow for more distancing, & had upped it's cleaning arrangements
Then I’d suggest allowing the industry to get on with these projects pretty soon, as simply dithering & doing nothing until Christmas or beyond as has been suggested will just ensure a very sizeable proportion of pubs don’t reopen at all
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Then I’d suggest allowing the industry to get on with these projects pretty soon, as simply dithering & doing nothing until Christmas or beyond as has been suggested will just ensure a very sizeable proportion of pubs don’t reopen at all

Rearranging the seating in a pub is hardly a "project", you just move the tables round (and if you have fixed ones that can't comply, tape some of them off).

Also, there's no rule saying they can't move their tables now if they want!
 

Qwerty133

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2012
Messages
2,453
Location
Leicester/Sheffield
I don't see how the hospitality industry can ever fully re-open whilst this virus remains so dangerous. If pubs re-open, there will have to be strict capacity limits in force, and noise limits as well. You can't have people in pubs shouting into each others ears to talk because loud music is playing.

As for bars, nightclubs and concert venues, I don't see how those can re-open at all in a Covid-19 world. Nightclubs and most concerts are all about being packed in with lots of sweaty people with very loud music. A perfect 'super spreading' environment.
Nightclubs are a strange one in that while their reopening would almost certainly cause a large rise in deaths, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on deaths due to the demographics of those attending. I actually believe that it is essential that university nightclubs at the very least are allowed to reopen at the same point as the resumption of in person lectures and that this would actually reduce the numbers of deaths by reducing the levels of contact between students and those external to the university* and by reducing the amount of house parties which are even less sanitary.
*If students are not able to go clubbing at the weekend I imagine travel between universities and family homes will significantly increase, which is mostly by public transport, meaning that they will spread the virus around the country and also infect more vulnerable family members who are more likely to die.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
*If students are not able to go clubbing at the weekend I imagine travel between universities and family homes will significantly increase, which is mostly by public transport, meaning that they will spread the virus around the country and also infect more vulnerable family members who are more likely to die.

When I was a student (OK, 90s) we went clubbing midweek, not at the weekend when things were more expensive as non-students also wanted to go out!
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
When I was a student (OK, 90s) we went clubbing midweek, not at the weekend when things were more expensive as non-students also wanted to go out!

Yes, clubbing was definitely done in the week in my experience. A lot went home for the weekend.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
Then I’d suggest allowing the industry to get on with these projects pretty soon, as simply dithering & doing nothing until Christmas or beyond as has been suggested will just ensure a very sizeable proportion of pubs don’t reopen at all

I'm aware of some that did this before they closed !
 

Carlisle

Established Member
Joined
26 Aug 2012
Messages
4,121
Rearranging the seating in a pub is hardly a "project", you just move the tables round (and if you have fixed ones that can't comply, tape some of them off).
True, however the practicalities & affordability of implementing social distancing at busy city establishments may not be workable or on the busy trains, busses & tubes folk will be using to get to & from them
 
Last edited:

RealTrains07

Established Member
Joined
28 Feb 2019
Messages
1,748
True, however the practicalities & affordability of implementing social distancing at busy city establishments may not be workable
Thats one of the things i am concerned about. The same applies to large gatherings such as festivals and concerts.
Festivals would be especially difficult and some near impossible to enforce social distancing.

I think all mass gatherings should be cancelled till December once the restrictions start being lifted
 

Carlisle

Established Member
Joined
26 Aug 2012
Messages
4,121
I think all mass gatherings should be cancelled till December once the restrictions start being lifted
However once the major restrictions are lifted you create mass gatherings on hundreds of busses, trains, trams & stations anyway & I can’t see a fudge like simply insisting on masks in these scenarios being widely embraced by either the public or staff given a number have already lost their lives
 
Last edited:

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Actually there does seem to be a slight rise in car use since the start of the lockdown; notably the weekend just passed (18-19th April) was quite a bit busier than the three weekends before it. The midweek figures didn't dip in quite the same way as they had in the previous weeks either. This pattern is repeated for bus travel.

It's a little difficult to compare weekday travel as the last two weeks have only been 4 day working weeks (Eg maybe daily use was higher last week as people deferred trips they'd have otherwise done on Bank Holiday Monday?). So I'd hesitate to strongly claim anything about the working week before we have data for this week, but the weekend increase might suggest a few more people are taking short trips for exercise on the weekend, perhaps following clearer guidance that this is allowed? What also stands out is that National Rail hasn't seen any hint of an increase. I think that rail will take much longer than both private transport, which has less infection risk, and bus travel, which is more likely than rail to be used for journeys where there is no alternative, to rise after the first stages of lockdown relaxation.

There has definitely been a slight increase in some aspects of rail use, particularly early morning, and I’ve seen data to bear this out. My impression is there has been a slight increase in rail use over the lockdown - simply based on where I was seeing almost completely empty platforms at the start of the lockdown now there will typically be a handful of people. However this could be people adapting timings and the like.

Roads are definitely busier. I’ve only been driving to work on a spasmodic basis, however each time I’ve made the journey I’d say the roads have been slightly busier than the previous occasion. Again towards the beginning of the lockdown it was a pretty clear run, then one started having a car or two in front at traffic lights, now today several times I ended up having to wait for the second sequence of lights to get through (which in places would be worse than a normal weekday at the same time of day). Likewise journey time has crept up from about 37 minutes as the start of the lockdown to about 41 minutes, although still pretty good by normal standards where I’d also have to allow a lot more margin for problems.

Obviously these are simply my impressions and are of course based heavily on a Home Counties to London journey. Other areas will no doubt have different trends.

There has also of course been an explosion in cycling, and also a noticeable increase on motorcycle use, of which I’m guessing most is “exercise”. I use that in inverted commas as I’m unsure how a motorcycle counts as exercise!
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
However once the major restrictions are lifted you create mass gatherings on hundreds of busses, trains, trams & stations anyway & I can’t see a fudge like simply insisting on masks in these scenarios being widely embraced by either the public or staff given a number have already lost their lives

I wouldn't be surprised if there were less risk to staff on rail systems due to them not having to travel in the passenger compartment, than on the buses.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
I wouldn't be surprised if there were less risk to staff on rail systems due to them not having to travel in the passenger compartment, than on the buses.

In general, yes. However there are some specific issues like what happens if the crew need to go back to deal with a passenger alarm, person ill, defect which requires going back to check something etc. Also there’s potentially issue with staff having to travel around “pass” and messroom capacities.

There are mitigations to help address some of these issues, although in some cases they may mean a given situation will take longer than normal to resolve.
 

RealTrains07

Established Member
Joined
28 Feb 2019
Messages
1,748
However once the major restrictions are lifted you create mass gatherings on hundreds of busses, trains, trams & stations anyway & I can’t see a fudge like simply insisting on masks in these scenarios being widely embraced by either the public or staff given a number have already lost their lives
I cant either. The nhs is the priority in terms of PPE as well as masks.

Question is if the government insists on commuters wearing masks on trains and as well as other transport. Where will they get the means for such a large supply in a small amount of time?
 

greyman42

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2017
Messages
4,894
I think a lot of people are very much contemplating a major change in lifestyle - certainly restricting non-essential travel away from their homes and basically only travelling as work and food shopping requires. Why wouldn't they if they can?

It is pretty much what I have in mind for the foreseeable future. I can't be the only one.
This being the case, then we can re-open the pubs and restaurants as they will be near enough empty.
 

greyman42

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2017
Messages
4,894
Seated concerts would be less of a concern, particularly if bars were not open, you only have close contact with about 10 people at one of those.
That will allow the resumption of top fight football as well as the stadiums are all seater.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Most people I know feel exactly the same.

At this moment I really feel it’s too early to be taking that view. We have to see how the next few weeks pans out. Deaths are going down, but this doesn’t rule out a second wave, or the virus being imported back in (as China now seem to be experiencing to at least some extent).

It may be the case that a vaccine emerges and we’re back to normal by, say, this time next year - albeit with a potentially massive economic cost to be picked up.

I think it may prove the case that 2020 has to be at least partially written off for all of us. It’s a kick in the teeth for sure, bu compared to for example five years of WW2 it isn’t such a bad deal in the grand scheme of things.
 

CaptainHaddock

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,206
Just an idea but I wonder if pubs might be allowed to reopen earlier if they were to operate on a "members only" basis, similar to the old Working Men's Clubs of yore? You could register on the pub's website or Facebook page, be given a unique ID number and then quote that to enter the pub. No ID, no entry!
 

ChrisC

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2018
Messages
1,594
Location
Nottinghamshire
Obviously these are simply my impressions and are of course based heavily on a Home Counties to London journey. Other areas will no doubt have different trends.

There’s also been a noticeable increase in traffic on main roads in rural areas of Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire. The town centres are very quiet and so are the country lanes. It’s the main roads between towns and villages where traffic has increased over the past 2 weeks. The B road through my village was almost deserted the first two weeks of the lockdown, and although still quiet compared to normal traffic levels, it’s getting noticeably busier. However, nothing coming through the village after dark.
 

Mogster

Member
Joined
25 Sep 2018
Messages
902
I’d say my 7-4 commute into Manchester and back is busier than it was before Easter.

4pm last night I was in a queue of traffic at the M602 roadworks. Nothing like the routine traffic Armageddon that leads to me commuting by rail, but even so the roads are getting busier again it seems.

Edit....

The radio Manchester traffic reporter mentioned the traffic being noticeably heavier also.
 
Last edited:

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Just an idea but I wonder if pubs might be allowed to reopen earlier if they were to operate on a "members only" basis, similar to the old Working Men's Clubs of yore? You could register on the pub's website or Facebook page, be given a unique ID number and then quote that to enter the pub. No ID, no entry!

I doubt members only, though a few might only allow known locals. Advance booking of a table I wouldn't rule out, same as restaurants (there's considerable overlap anyway).
 

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
7,416
I would guess traffic rises slightly as more workplaçes sort out distancing arrangements and start up again.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top