Financial Difficulty at Northern?

[AndrewE]

That's TPE, not Northern. Northern have never proposed running Mk3 LHCS.

You are right, of course... sorry, I must be suffering from brain-fade!

Probably because they are a private company and run their business how they see fit. The consequence of forcing these companies to hire more staff means the costs will go up and the customer has to pay higher prices.
Nationalization isn't gonna happen. It isn't better when being run by the government they will do exactly the same. TOCs under staffing, relying on over time etc has been happening for years. It isn't going to change.

The fact remains that there is virtually no public accountability for public transport failures "up North." TfL works, Northern/TPE certainly do not.
How would you feel if you had got up at 4.30am to catch the 6am TPE train from Newcastle to Manchester - only to find that the company was running it ECS and that you would get to Manchester after 9am instead? I bet you wouldn't waste money on the fare again.

 

[ComUtoR]

The fact remains that there is virtually no public accountability for public transport failures "up North." TfL works, Northern/TPE certainly do not.

Down South is the same.

How would you feel if you had got up at 4.30am to catch the 6am TPE train from Newcastle to Manchester - only to find that the company was running it ECS and that you would get to Manchester after 9am instead? I bet you wouldn't waste money on the fare again.

I'd shrug and get an Uber.

 

[driver_m]

So they are understaffed then. To be fully staffed you need enough staff to have them do everything you need them to (training included), not just for the basic work.

Stop highlighting to make your point. They’re not understaffed, if Llama works for them, then why are you countering him? They’ve had this problem for years where staff don’t sign the full number of routes. That’s purely a management competence issue, because other companies seem to manage it quite well. I remember road learning out of Lime St and even back then, their drivers were complaining of being constantly stitched up doing certain routes whilst the new drivers they’d took on could only do CLC line services as it was their core route. The strikes will have had a big impact if managers were having to cover for guards going out on strike over the DOO.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Stop highlighting to make your point. They’re not understaffed, if Llama works for them, then why are you countering him?

Because other people in the industry (one of whom, it appears, also working for them) are confirming (including the one I replied to, though one other does too) that they do not have enough staff to operate the service and have staff on training as required to operate that service. Therefore there are not enough staff. I don't get what is difficult about that.

How I format my posts within the constraints of the Forum's functionality and rules is none of your business, by the way.

 

[driver_m]

Because other people in the industry are confirming (including the one I replied to, though one other does too) that they do not have enough staff to operate the service and have staff on training as required. Therefore there are not enough staff. I don't get what is difficult about that.

How I format my posts within the constraints of the Forum's functionality and rules is none of your business, by the way.

when the links are worked out there’s a ratio of how many drivers you need in a link per number of turns and dependent on some criteria. If those links are full then there isn’t a shortage. Most companies have a RDW agreement for training purposes. We do. Have Northern got one? Something is clearly wrong there, but if @Llama is saying they’re not, then why doubt him? It can’t be as simple as saying they’re understaffed. It’s nothing compared to what it’s going to be like in a few years when the vast number of mid to late 80s drivers all suddenly start going.

 

[Brissle Girl]

I now have a vision of a lot of very elderly drivers well past their retirement age.

 

[driver_m]

I now have a vision of a lot of very elderly drivers well past their retirement age.

Haha I made them look ancient, I meant the 1980s!! No, it’s more a lot of mid to late age 50s drivers when will go earlier than the expected retirement date of 66.

 

[Brissle Girl]

Haha I made them look ancient, I meant the 1980s!! No, it’s more a lot of mid to late age 50s drivers when will go earlier than the expected retirement date of 66.

For anyone aged 57 or younger the state retirement age pushes up to 67, but from what you’re suggesting many will go earlier. If they have maxed out in terms of pension accrual then I can imagine many would choose to do so.

 

[AndrewE]

Down South is the same

It is not at all.
Provincial south maybe, but TfL (with Merseyrail and Scotrail) are definitely the closest to public-sector provision, and are pretty well top for customer satisfaction. In my experience, using all 3 about equally (and a lot more than any other railways other than VTWC and LNR) they are very good.

 

[DarloRich]

There has been further evidence in support of the position that Northern cannot be sustained in its current form until the end of the contract. In the leaked document the government confirms that in the event that Northern default on their contract the Government will step in to ensure trains continue running.

In related news the leak says that pacer trains will remain in Greater Manchester after New Year.

Could you provide an attribution for this slide? is there an attached media report?

 

[Killingworth]

Many moons ago I managed a unit with 15 staff. It functioned well, not least because for 15 months we didn't lose a single day to illness. After the 12 month point I knew that record would soon fall and it did. In quick succession 2 key members were off for over 4 months each. Pressure came on the rest and we sometimes had 5 of the 15 off sick together, plus usual holidays, training and courses. Inevitably things didn't work quite so well!

Fully staffed is very difficult to define, and rather depends on the viewpoint it's looked from. 15 was the establishment. We could fully function with 12 present, but once allowances get made for holidays, training and sickness, especially when unplanned, it's different. All businesses are much the same. The level of cover that needs to be maintained to cover eventualities, and how it's done, can get silly.

Back in the 60s national employers recruited heavily in the North-East where unemployment was high, and slowly shunted staff towards London. Hostels were even provided for them in the capital. Relief staff got generous expenses packages to fill gaps across the nation. The jobs I knew weren't too highly skilled.

Members of the public find it hard to understand railway conditions where a driver can't just sit in the cab and drive away, any train, any route, any time.

Given the conditions that do apply on railways it is very difficult to say that Northern is under, or over, staffed. It will be both at the same time, in different places, in different grades, and even on different days of the week. That's where effective management is critical. Changing ownership in itself hardly matters without full understanding of the nuts and bolts of the business. How and why we got here, where we are, then where and how we're going next.

Once the new trains are all in place, the cascades are all in and refurbished, and with old stock removed we'll be better able to judge performance. It might be 6-12 months before things start to settle down. How the May 2020 timetable works out will be the big test. We need to be realistic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is not at all.
Provincial south maybe, but TfL (with Merseyrail and Scotrail) are definitely the closest to public-sector provision, and are pretty well top for customer satisfaction. In my experience, using all 3 about equally (and a lot more than any other railways other than VTWC and LNR) they are very good.

Most people commuting to London aren't just using TfL, and I can definitely confirm to you that LNR are having the exact same problems (for the exact same reasons) as Northern at the minute. The only saving grace is that our 12-car people eaters can cram everyone on in the event of a cancellation, and frequencies are generally a bit better so the impact of a cancellation is reduced.

 

[mandub]

Could you provide an attribution for this slide? is there an attached media report?

It's a slide from an April report that has been leaked to a Manchester Evening News journalist. She wrote an article below and then tweeted this slide and another later on. Full leaked report not available.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...-wont-leaving-greater-manchester-17064009.amp

 

[DarloRich]

It's a slide from an April report that has been leaked to a Manchester Evening News journalist. She wrote an article below and then tweeted this slide and another later on. Full leaked report not available.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...-wont-leaving-greater-manchester-17064009.amp

thanks - not much of a story and the slide without context doesn't really help!

 

[SteveM70]

That slide is typical of an airy fairy statement about what they hope for. I’d love to see the detail on the “how” part - maybe that was on the next slide?

 

[Jozhua]

Lack of general competence.
An inability to engage appropriately with multiple stakeholders (customers, local politicians etc).
Responsibility for local trains in four major conurbations and yet apparently managed remotely from all of them.

Yeah, I think Northern should be able to be somewhat independent, so as to balance the needs of the region as a whole rather than certain areas. Still, they appear to be serving the whole of the north badly lol.

The Northern position underlines the inherent flaws in the franchising model. Bids are made on forecasts that prove to be inaccurate. The optimism at the takeover point slowly withers away as the reality becomes apparent.

North-West electrification delays.
New rolling stock delays.
Refurbished rolling stock delays.
Manchester/Northern hub delays.
Various other delays at all levels
Industrial relations issues.

The reality is that Northern signed up to a package that would only have worked if all the above had not happened - and passenger revenue had increased accordingly.

Growing cynicism is now seen among rail staff, passengers and the general public who don't even use the railway. The press will always jump on an easy story. That can be regurgitating countless spun good news stories of new stock introduction when order made, first train arrived, first train in service, etc. That is more than offset when trains are cancelled and frequently delayed. Angry users are very easy to find, particularly in Manchester.

All the over lapping delays conspire to produce multiple management challenges when forecasting what happens next. If new units aren't arriving from Spain no change of franchisee will make them appear faster. If 769s don't work as designed they can't be used. 319s were found to be unsuitable to match many timetable expectations.

Adding to the challenges are lots more little details. Removing Pacers and replacing with new longer, heavier and more sophisticated DMUs adds to running costs, yet the target is to substantially reduce consumption of diesel fuel. Square that circle!

If anyone else is asked to take control the fundamentals will still remain. We can't get better services without enough rolling stock that works, and staff willing and able to operate it 7 days a week. Accountants can be forgiven for wanting to chew the carpet!

Franchising allows the DfT to have their cake and eat it, calling most of the shots and getting someone else to take the blame when it goes wrong. Frankly it's beyond me why anyone even bids for these franchises anymore. Probably why the operators are all useless, wouldn't be surprised if the only businesses who think it's a good idea to try and run one of these things are the incompetent ones...

If a reliable service is to be run then either more funding is needed for day to day operations and infrastructure upgrades, especially around castlefield or services need to be cut...

 

[Jozhua]

That slide is typical of an airy fairy statement about what they hope for. I’d love to see the detail on the “how” part - maybe that was on the next slide?

Hahhaa, I was thinking exactly the same thing, it's honestly laughable

 

[Starmill]

They’re not understaffed, if Llama works for them, then why are you countering him?

Multiple people who claim to work for Northern have posted that there are staff shortages.

 

[driver_m]

Multiple people who claim to work for Northern have posted that there are staff shortages.

You got a copy of the driver links have you? You obviously know exactly how many vacancies there are in those links.

 

[Starmill]

You got a copy of the driver links have you? You obviously know exactly how many vacancies there are in those links.

Feel free to get them posted up?

 

[Llama]

As someone who does know the depot establishment and depot complement figures, as well as how many drivers are currently in training, take it from me there is no shortage of staff. What there is a shortage of, is competence.

 

[Aivilo]

As someone who does know the depot establishment and depot complement figures, as well as how many drivers are currently in training, take it from me there is no shortage of staff. What there is a shortage of, is competence.

I've only gone through this last page and my response was going to be more or less the same.

 

[Djgr]

As someone who does know the depot establishment and depot complement figures, as well as how many drivers are currently in training, take it from me there is no shortage of staff. What there is a shortage of, is competence.

Ha. I knew it. The secret of failure is out of the bag!

 

[Edders23]

back on topic

This thread has been rumbling on since June and I have to say Nowt doing. if there are financial worries at northern and lets face it most businesses are a financial juggling act ; i think they would have dropped the ball by now.

The fact they haven't suggests they have everything under control

 

[NORTHERNSOUL]

Stop highlighting to make your point. They’re not understaffed, if Llama works for them, then why are you countering him? They’ve had this problem for years where staff don’t sign the full number of routes. That’s purely a management competence issue, because other companies seem to manage it quite well. I remember road learning out of Lime St and even back then, their drivers were complaining of being constantly stitched up doing certain routes whilst the new drivers they’d took on could only do CLC line services as it was their core route. The strikes will have had a big impact if managers were having to cover for guards going out on strike over the DOO.

Oh, come on you only have to look at the Service Disruptions Tab on Northerns Website their are dozens of cancellations across their network every day which they are attributing to a shortage of drivers [ and to a less extent guards ] even a year ago this was virtually unknown outside of the weekend.

There must be dozens of ways of achieving a quick fix for instance surely it would be more efficient to do the driver training [ and new unit mileage accumulation for that matter ] during the night ]

My opinion is that over complicating the diagrams cant be helping for instance when the Oxenholme to Windermere train just tootled up and down that line they could have stuck a new lad on it for the day and let him build his hours and confidence up.

And a story i.ve heard more than once is that drivers take holidays [ or sick days ] thru the week and then work overtime at the weekend when it more lucrative. Surely they could offer an enhanced overtime rate at the weekend but only paid if you have your 40 hours in thru the week.

It seems to me that the problems all go back to decade-old agreements and the way to achieve a long term solution is to offer the staff a new deal they carnt refuse in return for giving up all the outdated weekend agreements and admit that they work for a 7 day a week railway.

But thats not going to happen until stupid short franchises awarded to companies like Arriva are gone.

 

[bb21]

Unless anyone has anything else more useful to add, posts going back and forwards "yes, they are short-staffed", "no, they are not" without any substantive evidence will be deleted from this point on. We've got enough of those posts in this thread alone. For the avoidance of doubt, "I know something you don't", and "look at this and that publicity" do not count as substantive evidence.

And discussions about Uber and whatnot taxi service is off topic.

Please stay on topic. It is a quite important issue and we could do without it being buried under a mishmash of irrelevant discussion.

Thank you.

 

[Starmill]

back on topic

This thread has been rumbling on since June and I have to say Nowt doing. if there are financial worries at northern and lets face it most businesses are a financial juggling act ; i think they would have dropped the ball by now.

The fact they haven't suggests they have everything under control

Most businesses, unlike Northern, aren't contracted to the government, or subsidised to the tune of 100% of their revenue. Their shut-down point is not going to be the same as in a free market.

 

[ComUtoR]

Oh, come on you only have to look at the Service Disruptions Tab on Northerns Website their are dozens of cancellations across their network every day which they are attributing to a shortage of drivers

Shortage of Drivers is a generic attribution. They could say 'Shortage of trained Drivers' just as much as they could say that 'shortage of sickness cover'

Surely they could offer an enhanced overtime rate at the weekend but only paid if you have your 40 hours in thru the week.

Not sure about the hours at Northern but I haven't worked a 40hr week for a few years. With flexible rostering it allows for short hours one week and longer hours the next. Setting the bar at 40 to achieve an overtime rate just wouldn't work. I could also have a negative effect of creating more paid hours as Drivers will hold out for longer turns to work or demand a minimum number of hours per rest day.

It seems to me that the problems all go back to decade-old agreements and the way to achieve a long term solution is to offer the staff a new deal they carnt refuse in return for giving up all the outdated weekend agreements and admit that they work for a 7 day a week railway.

£££££ the TOC isn't gonna pay for it.

 

[Aivilo]

You get more for a rest day Monday - Saturday then on a Sunday.

TOCs across the UK generally dont have a a full compliment and rely on overtime.

The problems are far greater than being short staffed

 

[Pete_uk]

So if the company behind Northern walks away or gets pushed, how much would need to be spent to get the service quality up OR what kind of cuts would need to be made to balance things?