First East Coast (new Open Access Operator) to be standard class only?!

[daikilo]

Whilst I can see the claim that they are going after car and bus traffic, they will also compete with the franchise TOC and will be abstractive on KX-EDI traffic. I am convinced VTEC has done the modelling and don't like the answers.

I am also intrigued by what will happen if the EC franchise is relet and First wins (assuming they bid); presumably they will abandon the idea of Open Access and will fight to avoid anyone else doing it!

 

[maniacmartin]

One thing to bear in mind is that low cost airlines don't do the equivalent of an ORCATS raid - often their tickets are totally disjoint from other operators so you can't even get a through ticket involving a change onto other airlines. I don't think its fair to accept interavailable tickets and thus get the cash from it, but also allocate every seat to AP tickets, as has been suggested upthread.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One thing to bear in mind is that low cost airlines don't do the equivalent of an ORCATS raid - often their tickets are totally disjoint from other operators so you can't even get a through ticket involving a change onto other airlines. I don't think its fair to accept interavailable tickets and thus get the cash from it, but also allocate every seat to AP tickets, as has been suggested upthread.

Compulsory reservations (effectively) is not the same as allocating every seat to AP tickets. You would presumably be able to obtain at a station or when buying your interavailable ticket online a seat reservation to go with it, like you can on every other TOC.

 

[59CosG95]

The First East Coast offer will be a very attractive option to the many passengers who currently travel by Megabus, a service which runs 6 busses a day between Newcastle and London taking between 6 and 8 hours with ticket prices typically between £5 and £20. A significant proportion of those passengers appear to be students and younger visitors for whom cost is a significant deciding factor, and who find that the current cost of rail travel is a disincentive.

As a student myself, I concur that cost is very much one of my age group's caveats for long-distance rail travel. When travelling home to London from Birmingham, I prefer to take Chiltern as opposed to Virgin wherever I can, as they have some seriously cheap fares.

I'd say that First EC's plans are more like SNCF's "ouigo" and Thalys' "IZY" schemes - both of which are trying to draw budget airline and coach users onto high-speed rail services. Both the TGV-esque plans mentioned are reservation only as well IIRC - but then again, Thalys & TGVs are also both reservation only.

Ouigo tends to use smaller stations on the French network, while still using the LGVs: such "smaller" stations include Marne-la-Vallée for Paris, Tourcoing for Lille, and Lyon Saint-Éxupery for Lyon.
Their TGV sets are all double decker, with no buffet car, and the staff are fewer in number (but more skilled) per train.

IZY services are slower than Thalys' full-fat services, and are only allowed on the classic lines in France (so that lower track fees are paid to SNCF Réseau).

First EC's ideas certainly aren't dissimilar. Stevenage could certainly help as an incentive for those in the Home Counties to avoid going into London and then out again when travelling north; it could also have a shuttle bus from Luton Airport. Morpeth is good for the same reason (Newcastle Airport's proximity).

 

[amcluesent]

If this service was to pick-up the price-sensitive traveller, it would be smart for the main operators to look at business and civil service pax who are banned from buying first class. If a standard carriage was reserved for those paying full-fare standard, call it Standard-Plus, which had at seat service coffee coming through from the FC carriage it would pick up business IMHO. Obviously no at-seat wine and food as that would cannibalise FC

 

[59CosG95]

If this service was to pick-up the price-sensitive traveller, it would be smart for the main operators to look at business and civil service pax who are banned from buying first class. If a standard carriage was reserved for those paying full-fare standard, call it Standard-Plus, which had at seat service coffee coming through from the FC carriage it would pick up business IMHO. Obviously no at-seat wine and food as that would cannibalise FC

So, in essence, it would be the oft-touted "Trolley service of Drinks & Light Refreshments" bar the alcohol? I assume small snacks like crisps, chocolate bars etc. fall under the "Food" banner, and would thus only be available in 1st Class?

 

[amcluesent]

I assume small snacks like crisps, chocolate bars etc. fall under the "Food" banner, and would thus only be available in 1st Class?

I was thinking of at seat cooked meals, as per current menu on Virgin West Coast -

• Slow cooked tender lamb with root vegetables, topped with sliced potatoes. Inspired by our celebrity chef, Bryn Williams.
• Sustainably sourced smoked haddock and basmati rice, served with a spicy tomato sauce
• Pan-fried gnocchi, tomato & oregano sauce, with a parmesan & herb crumb
• Tangy citrus crème anglaise topped with mandarin orange segments

Plus wine and spirits

 

[Nean]

As someone who has been a student in the near past- it's about time someone hooked into the megabus-tier market! I absolutely hate the buses but when they cost up to (and sometimes more) than £40 less than the trains it's a no brainer... as for "standard premuim" options if they were going full ryanair/easyjet then they'd be charging "standard premuim" for having a table let alone anything else.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

While First have the access rights (from 2021), as far as I can see there is no rolling stock order yet, or even paths from Network Rail.
It's the same dilemma that VTEC/TPE face with incomplete NR enhancements on the ECML, particularly north of York.
If the ICEC franchise is reopened to tender in 2020 (as East Coast Partnership), I would have thought that changes the goalposts significantly for First (if they win).
I think it's a bit too early to start choosing the menu for the first train!
And what would Labour do about Open Access?

 

[Darandio]

A considerable amount of added room for those who want to be savvy without eliminating the added revenue that could come in from passengers who want to travel in a nicer atmosphere but possibly not spend on Virgin. For this they could offer maybe a seat only first? I don’t know...

Which defeats the whole concept of what they are wanting to achieve.

You and the priveleged can stay on the East Coast franchise (unlikely to be Virgin at this point) and the rest of us can choose a cheaper option.

 

[Trainfan344]

I'd much prefer top and tailed pulman coaches and 37s, but I think this could be a massive success if done right.

 

[Darandio]

I'd much prefer top and tailed pulman coaches and 37s, but I think this could be a massive success if done right.

Except for all of the days when they break down and block the line, generally this would be all days ending in the letter 'y'.

 

[Trainfan344]

They're not that bad....

 

[johnr57]

Except for all of the days when they break down and block the line, generally this would be all days ending in the letter 'y'.

... like !

 

[Wirewiper]

Mention of Easyjet and Ryanair in this thread is a reminder that budget airlines are also in the sights of First's proposed new operation. A four-hour journey time from City Centre to City Centre is competitive with air travel, and the Stevenage stop could be attractive to people over a wide area who might otherwise drive to Luton and Stansted Airports.

 

[furnessvale]

They're not that bad....

As long as they run around in pairs. The single 37s on the Cumbrian coast don't seem to fare so well.

 

[Mikey C]

Seems a massive risk to buy new stock to run this service instead of starting with existing stock to test the waters, especially with a potentially hostile Labour party

Does it have to be 125mph stock to fit in the paths, as otherwise why not use existing 100/110mph EMUs, as after all this is meant to be a budget service, and it still be much faster than going by coach?

 

[Doctor Fegg]

It's supposed to be 5 new 125mph-capable EMUs fitted with a buffet car and one single class of accommodation.

I find the name East Coast Trains is surprisingly similar to the DOR East Coast operator, I'd have thought the name was to similar to be permitted.

The customer-facing brand hasn’t been announced yet.

 

[ainsworth74]

Seems a massive risk to buy new stock to run this service instead of starting with existing stock to test the waters, especially with a potentially hostile Labour party

One would assume that First Group's thinking is that if it does all go belly up they can probably redeploy the stock to one of their franchised operations.

 

[Failed Unit]

Seems a massive risk to buy new stock to run this service instead of starting with existing stock to test the waters, especially with a potentially hostile Labour party

Does it have to be 125mph stock to fit in the paths, as otherwise why not use existing 100/110mph EMUs, as after all this is meant to be a budget service, and it still be much faster than going by coach?

I would agree. I would be looking at the class 91s and Mk4 coaches on a short lease. If it works get something better. If it fails walk away.

 

[daikilo]

With their experience of running TOCs and OA operators, I think they are more likely to have done calculations that show the EC TOC will go belly-up before them (and I contend this has already happened).

 

[HH]

And me too. Stupid idea. Why won’t they realise that some people like to pay a little extra for more comfort! I despair.

I'm sure First will be quaking in their boots that a forum poster, who uses a Virgin Logo as his avatar, doesn't fancy the service.

 

[robbeech]

I'm sure First will be quaking in their boots that a forum poster, who uses a Virgin Logo as his avatar, doesn't fancy the service.

They've called an emergency meeting today on a Sunday to rethink.

 

[HH]

Whilst I can see the claim that they are going after car and bus traffic, they will also compete with the franchise TOC and will be abstractive on KX-EDI traffic. I am convinced VTEC has done the modelling and don't like the answers.

Who does like competition when it's applied to themselves? The proposed serviced passed the "Not Primarily Abstractive" test; but, of course, that doesn't mean that it won't be abstractive.

BTW ORCATS allocations can be challenged and the challenge will succeed if they are not actually carrying the level of passengers that ORCATS allocates.

 

[Failed Unit]

Who does like competition when it's applied to themselves? The proposed serviced passed the "Not Primarily Abstractive" test; but, of course, that doesn't mean that it won't be abstractive.

BTW ORCATS allocations can be challenged and the challenge will succeed if they are not actually carrying the level of passengers that ORCATS allocates.

Be interesting to know what % of London - Newcastle/ Edinburgh tickets sold that are flexible now? Not many I bet. I always used the Scottish Executive ticket, with was only for the franchised operation. Likewise I found if was normally cheaper to book 3x AP than a saver for example. 1 going down. 2 returns and discarding the one I didn’t use.

 

[tbtc]

I think it's quite a good idea to take on the low cost airlines and coaches. That said, it will be interesting to see whether existing Scotland - London passengers will continue to pay the higher tiers of AP tickets on current providers, or will they just bail to the new operator !

Will the franchisee offer more lower fares to compete and will they do this down the line, or risk short-faring issues.

Shame they're not using re-conditioned rolling stock though.

Whilst I appreciate your fascination with older things, I'm struggling to think of any (legacy) electric stock capable of 125mph other than the 91s and mk4s (Mallard with a pantograph?) - albeit we don't know yet how many the ECML franchise will be giving up or whether they will be required on the MML (depending on which rumour you hear).

Ok, well take VTEC 225s.

9 coaches: 5.5x Standard, 3x First

Surely this new operator could at least do:

9 coaches: 8x Standard, 1x First

Or even increase it to eleven coaches like Virgin West Coast do?

11 coaches: 10.5x Standard, 2x First

A considerable amount of added room for those who want to be savvy without eliminating the added revenue that could come in from passengers who want to travel in a nicer atmosphere but possibly not spend on Virgin. For this they could offer maybe a seat only first? I don’t know...

Sorry where I said:

11 coaches: 10.5x Standard, 2x First

I meant 9.5x Standard, 1.5x First

Surely they could at least... erm ... build more of the 1980s mk4s to extend rakes to eleven coaches? Really?

Or are you talking about cannibalising other rakes?

In fairness to First, if they were offering all of the same bells and whistles that the ECML TOC do then it might be a lot harder to win paths - whilst I get the point that you are aghast at the concept of "Standard only" trains, if First want paths from Edinburgh to London then they presumably have to offer something that the current TOC doesn't provide - if they can pitch it as "standard only, bums on seats, no frills, aiming for the EasyJet/Megabus market" then they may be able to argue that it wouldn't be abstractive.

If First bid to run trains with two coaches of First Class serving sustainable caught pomegranates and locally sourced champagne then it may be a lot harder to convince The Powers That Be that there's a gap in the market for this proposal. Essentially they either have to aim high (fully First Class, restaurant, all serving staff to be called Jeeves) or aim low (only Standard, catering extends to full fat Irn-Bru or diet Irn-Bru) - trying to run the same 225s with the same mix of First/Standard is going to be a lot harder to argue in favour of.

Remember, this is at the same time that the ECML TOC is going to be trying to increase the number of services from Kings Cross (whilst Thameslink constrains the timetable to other TOCs), so there's going to be a lot of lawyers involved if the TOC promising to repay hundreds of millions of pounds in premium finds that an identikit First service is undercutting them by offering a remarkably similar service.

Whilst I can see the claim that they are going after car and bus traffic, they will also compete with the franchise TOC and will be abstractive on KX-EDI traffic. I am convinced VTEC has done the modelling and don't like the answers.

Good point.

Whilst GNER was mainly sunk by problems at Sea Containers, the arrival of Grand Central wasn't helpful - if we want companies to bid for eight year franchises guaranteeing to pay a certain premium (or accepting a certain subsidy) then they are going to be very conservative in their plans if they have to factor in an Open Access raid on their busiest flows. Wouldn't blame VTEC if this were on their list of excuses for "handing the keys back".

 

[Scotty]

And me too. Stupid idea. Why won’t they realise that some people like to pay a little extra for more comfort! I despair.

Don't use it then...

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Don't use it then...

Ok!

 

[yorksrob]

Whilst I appreciate your fascination with older things, I'm struggling to think of any (legacy) electric stock capable of 125mph other than the 91s and mk4s (Mallard with a pantograph?) - albeit we don't know yet how many the ECML franchise will be giving up or whether they will be required on the MML (depending on which rumour you hear).

This was the original plan, as I understand it.

 

[swaldman]

Does it have to be 125mph stock to fit in the paths, as otherwise why not use existing 100/110mph EMUs, as after all this is meant to be a budget service, and it still be much faster than going by coach?

I don't know whether the paths require 125mph running[1], but trying to poach customers from the airlines for London<>Edinburgh probably does.

[1] though this does seem likely if they're doing the whole length of the line without many stops at which they could be overtaken