jaarus
I applied in July 2012. I had stage 1 assessments in October 2012. Stage 2 assessment was March this year. I had my driver managers interview in July this year, my medical in early August, and I start in September.
I am sure many people go through the entire process more quickly, and some, such as myself (and I also had to consider resettlement, accrued leave etc to try and calculate the earliest date I would be available to start work with FGW) have had a more protracted recruitment.
So, as you have throughout your military career, plan for the worst and hope for the best would be my advice. Stick with it, and if successful the rewards will far outweigh the uncertainty of a long wait.