TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
To be fair, I was being a bit tongue in cheek for @carlberry so we can have another "1" to go with T1 and m1 and X1 etc
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freetoview33
Established Member
This is what I'm thinking as a workable idea.
17: Southmead Hospital - Kingswood - Kenysham (As is)
18: U.W.E - Kingswood - Keynsham (Serving Chandag on evenings and weekends) Half hourly to Kingswood and Hourly to Keynsham, Possibly a slight reroute to serve Bridgeyate (Could be branded under Citylines East too) (No need to serve Parkway or Cribbs as the new Metrobus extension will serve that area perfectly well)
19: Bath - Kingswood - U.W.E - Cribbs Causeway (Once an hour in the daytimes) (Timed to run at even intervals with the 47)
37: Broadmead - Keynsham (As 349) (Leaving at XX:00 and XX:30)
38: Broadmead - Keynsham (Chandag) (Leaving at XX:15)
47: Bristol Bus Station - Hanham - Bath (As the now old 37) (Timed to run at even intervals with the 19)
138: Broadmead - Keynsham - Radstock (As 178) (Leaving at XX:45)
39: Bristol - Keynsham - Bath (Evenings and Sundays as is)
X39: Bristol - Bath (As is)
A4: Try to get some agreement so it can be promoted by First too (Someone always said that there was some agreement there already to do with tickets?)
17: Southmead Hospital - Kingswood - Kenysham (As is)
18: U.W.E - Kingswood - Keynsham (Serving Chandag on evenings and weekends) Half hourly to Kingswood and Hourly to Keynsham, Possibly a slight reroute to serve Bridgeyate (Could be branded under Citylines East too) (No need to serve Parkway or Cribbs as the new Metrobus extension will serve that area perfectly well)
19: Bath - Kingswood - U.W.E - Cribbs Causeway (Once an hour in the daytimes) (Timed to run at even intervals with the 47)
37: Broadmead - Keynsham (As 349) (Leaving at XX:00 and XX:30)
38: Broadmead - Keynsham (Chandag) (Leaving at XX:15)
47: Bristol Bus Station - Hanham - Bath (As the now old 37) (Timed to run at even intervals with the 19)
138: Broadmead - Keynsham - Radstock (As 178) (Leaving at XX:45)
39: Bristol - Keynsham - Bath (Evenings and Sundays as is)
X39: Bristol - Bath (As is)
A4: Try to get some agreement so it can be promoted by First too (Someone always said that there was some agreement there already to do with tickets?)
With a new MD starting I’d say something changing half way though is highly likely, they like to put their own stamp on things one way or another
Although having come from outside the bus industry this might be either more or less likely to happen
TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
Why bother with the renumbering? Changing the 37 to 47? Changing 349 to 37? Changing the 178 to 138? That's just confusing and to what end?
Agree the A4 arrangement needs to be better publicised and then you can not have the 18 from Bath.
Also, I'm confused about a half hourly 18 from UWE to Kingswood and an hourly 19....? The hourly 19 and an hourly 18 to Keynsham (as per the old 318/319) would make more sense?
Private Baxter
Established Member
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I wasn't thinking anything that drastic, rather a few simple changes, such as 349 becoming the 38 (as it sort of did once before), and 178 becoming 34, then you have an easier to remember service pattern along that corridor out of Bristol, ie 1, 34, 36, 38 and 39/X39
freetoview33
Established Member
If the 18 was split at Keysham it could become more of a sister route to the 17 rather than the 19
Citistar
Member
I think everyone is massively overestimating the level of demand from Chandag Estate in Keynsham. Bus usage around there has always been dire because it is mostly filled with big, expensive houses with at least two premium 4x4s on the driveways. Wellsway and Bath Road are close enough to the estate that anybody travelling through to Bath or Bristol will make their way to those for onward services. The presence of Keynsham Dial-a-Ride has ruined demand for shorter journeys, so the existing 663 service is more than adequate.
In my humble opinion, the future in Keynsham is likely to be daytime journeys on 39 to replace 349. A daytime service will probably be provided around the Park Estate loop. 178 might survive the end of CBSSG, but is unlikely to do so unscathed. In all honesty, those who are advocating significant network expansion and the introduction of additional vehicles everywhere are living in a dream land. Once the CBSSG money ends, the network is going to be in freefall because the morning peak demand which has traditionally bankrolled the whole day's operation has showed no significant sign of returning at any point in the past 10 months.
In my humble opinion, the future in Keynsham is likely to be daytime journeys on 39 to replace 349. A daytime service will probably be provided around the Park Estate loop. 178 might survive the end of CBSSG, but is unlikely to do so unscathed. In all honesty, those who are advocating significant network expansion and the introduction of additional vehicles everywhere are living in a dream land. Once the CBSSG money ends, the network is going to be in freefall because the morning peak demand which has traditionally bankrolled the whole day's operation has showed no significant sign of returning at any point in the past 10 months.
Somebody always has to inject some realism into everything! And I'd already designed the leaflet for @TheGrandWazoo 's K1 scheme as well:
(Image of doctered City Dart leaflet for K1/K2)
TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
Fair point. I did caveat that it was risking "playing buses" and that travel patterns were an unknown.
You're doubtless right that the outcome will be a reduction more than anything else. If and when Alan takes his well-earned retirement, it might just allow First to take on the 349, give it a new colour scheme/some B9s, and simply have a 30 min service to Keynsham, with hourly projections to Park Estate or Radstock, and even that might be optimistic.
When CBSSG ends, lord knows what carnage will have been wrought.
Hmmm....can't help noticing.... have you deftly photoshopped something?
freetoview33
Established Member
For the most part I think the pre covid timetable will resume. In the summer and some parts of September there were some extremely bus services. (At the point social distancing became questionable)
It is a question of the morning peak and if there will be quite as high a demand.
Private Baxter
Established Member
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Now thats the best thing I have seen all day! Of course I don't think they would get away with such slogans these days whilst depicting step entrance vehicles!
TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
I hope you're right but @Citistar is highlighting that the commuter market that underpins everything (rather than twirly pass holders) is crucial and it ain't looking good. If that's only 90% of where you were, then many services will just not survive. Think Julian Peddle commented on it recently.
Well.... to be honest, it was a change to have small vehicles that could penetrate housing areas that were previously unserved. Also, depends what your comparator was? If you were used to Bristol LHs (as I was), or if you were Scottish with a fair chance that it would be some Leopard or Seddon on your local services, then a Transit was low floor!Now thats the best thing I have seen all day! Of course I don't think they would get away with such slogans these days whilst depicting step entrance vehicles!
Remember travelling on Transits when I visited from the bleak North - some very fun journeys on them on country services around Wiltshire and Somerset, courtesy of Badgerline and SN!! Thanks for @carlberry for that funny!
I'd be amazed if 75% of it came back. It's facing a perfect storm of vast numbers of companies realising that they can do without the costs of central offices, reduced congestion as a result of that which just encourages the people with a choice to drive instead of taking a bus and the government messaging for months that public transport should be avoided because it's unclean (I realise that wasnt the actual message!). Last summer had the advantage of staycations and people just wanting to get out and this year will be similar, by 2022 with the likelyhood of foreign holidays again the off peak traffic is likely to revert to what it was before. Not a time to be running a bus company!
I've got too many bad memories of crush loading on City Darts (especially the 8/9 services). The drivers tried their best however they often had to refuse travel because of the need to keep the load within what the Transit would cope with on Park Street!
freetoview33
Established Member
Between 2 and 3pm the four 4's per hour from Henbury got quite full (with distancing over the summer) so when it goes back to like now 2 per hour it should be quite full.
With the Keynsham thing, if I am being honest in the current climate I think the following would be totally possible.
18 - Keynsham - Kingswood - U.W.E - Cribbs Causeway (Hourly whole route, half hourly Kingswood to U.W.E if demand is there) - Branded as Citylines East and a sister route to the 17.
19 - Bath - Kelston - Kingswood (Hourly) (or even number it the 9 and have it part of Bath City)
37 - Withdrawn
Leave the Bath - Keynsham section to the A4
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TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
I wouldn't be shocked if the 37 was finally killed off, nor ceding the Bath to Keynsham section to RATP. As for the 18, the decline of the northern peripheral services has been such over recent years that I'd not be rushing to suggest anything.
As @carlberry says, the demonisation of public transport as a Covid vector, more WFH, unemployment and also the drop in congestion - it's a toxic mix.
Private Baxter
Established Member
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Must be honest this was long before my time using buses in Bristol, and have no opinion on the bus depicted, I just rather appreciate the effort from @carlberry.
You've hit the nail on the head there. The constant renumbering and fiddling of these services hasn't helped them over the last decade. Renumbering them all (again!) isn't going to solve the issue (again!)
Private Baxter
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I've thought a lot about this, and have simply concluded that we don't really know what the commuter market will be like in a year's time. Let's assume, and hope, that a year from now restrictions have been lifted, and the economy completely reopened. You raise some good points, and I agree there will likely be a significant reduction in those using public transport to get to work, but I also believe peak time demand will pick up again, as some people will return to offices, though never to the levels it was pre covid. For some the prospect of never again having to cram on to the 48 (for example) and sit in Bristol's rush hour traffic twice a day is almost too good to be true, but perhaps it might at least make the experience for those who do return more bearable. But it is also true that many bus routes exist primarily for their commuter traffic, (everything else is extra), and routes such as the aforementioned 48/49, 1/2, 75/76 have benefited from investment over the years, and as such, certain routes might decline, which, as both an enthusiastic and advocate of buses, is concerning.
Off peak travel will likely return to what it was, and routes such as the 17 will also likely go back to pre covid levels, as that tends to attract shift workers, many of whom can't work from home. Just some thoughts anyway, but as I said, we won't get a true picture of new travel patterns for at least a year.
I fear you could right with a daytime 39 doing the Park Estate loop. I'd been using the 349 during peak hours, once a week, for the last few month of last year and the most on each trip was never more than 10-15. Quite often you'd go non-stop between Temple Meads and Keynsham high street on an evening, as Alan has hinted elsewhere without First propping it up the 349 would've gone by now.
I wouldn't be shocked to see the 37 go in the main either, I can only see it surviving as a one bus working worked around the Oldfield runs. Going back 10-15 years to the 332 the 7.50 towards Bristol in Longwell Green would pick up 10-15 as it was limited stop beyond Hanham. They'd all let the 45 go by, but at the end of the day the 332 was undermining the city services.
I wonder if things don't pick up whether with certain routes and areas we'll see more feeder services introduced, much like the 24A and the 349 was last summer? Lets say you could employ some van conversions and penetrate into housing estates.....
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TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
It’s not exactly clear but essentially, fares are inter available between Bath and Keynsham. See pages 11/13/21.
Been like it since the 38 went but it’s a big secret!
KendalKing
Established Member
66881 and 66884 are now at Olive Grove, photos posted in First Group Enthusiasts, facebook page.
TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
Isn't there a curious oddity here? Might be wrong on this but these ex WOE Eclipses (refurbished in 2017?) are being converted to driver trainers for South Yorkshire. Meanwhile,
similar vintage native examples are being repainted into the new livery with an internal refurb?
Citistar
Member
I think the only saving grace of the 37 might be Oldfield School. No doubt First would like the current staggered start and finish times to continue longer term as it would mean they could effectively run routes to serve the place. Whether or not the numbers stack up for the school travel either once the OS1-5 route subsidy ends, i have no idea.
The 18 between Keynsham and Kingswood is an interesting one. First have gone to astonishing lengths to prevent anybody else (including us) being in that part of the world, yet they've clearly lost interest in the 42 in that area as well. Perhaps that end will become one of the "spokes" that radiate out from the Kingswood hub when the WECA grand masterplan is put in to motion.
Robertj21a
On Moderation
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Yes - surprised if 668xx are being refurbed while many others are becoming trainers elsewhere.
TheGrandWazoo
Veteran Member
Sorry - meant the ex Bath ones were refurbished but are becoming trainers. Meanwhile, I think 69051 (also a 55 plate) has been repainted but I don't think (and would doubt) they'd be touched internally given their age.
So they're repainting both but the public will get the ones with tired seats?
DaveHarries
Established Member
Speaking of routes that could be killed off I am surprised that Service 5 (Downend - City Centre, via. St. Paul's) continues to run: I can't recall seeing that many people on it at the best of times so I would be surprised if deckers do well on that route. Although I am not sure how well the 48A does for passengers between Old Market and UWE Frenchay I personally wouldn't be that surprised if we one day saw:
- 5: Withdrawn.
- 24: Some journeys used to reconstitute the former Service 25 via. St. Paul's. (Can't recall when this last ran).
- 48A: Revised route. Same as 48 to Downend (Badminton Road), then to Bromley Heath (Quaker's Road / Wedgewood Road) via. Four Acres Road and Quaker's Road.
UWE Frenchay to St. Mathias is covered by the Bath / Keynsham to Cribbs Causeway route I believe?
Or am I being silly?
Dave
cnjb8
Established Member
Like I said it was unconfirmed becoming trainers. Olive Grove just lost a load of B7s to Eastern Counties so maybe as they were refurbished, they could be replacements, albeit a small number of them
Private Baxter
Established Member
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Whilst I think it too soon to predict what post covid demand will look like, I agree that the 5 was never the busiest, other than a few school runs, the permanent move to deckers has been a little surprising. No going back now - one has been painted in mint colours!
As for 48A, whilst people closest to Old Market Street can just get the 70, parts of Easton and Fishponds have a reasonable student population. Not as strong as that around Gloucester Road, but the 48A's future is safe enough.
Citistar
Member
I think 48A is fairly safe. There is an established link between UWE campuses at Frenchay and Glenside which is probably as or more important than the route running through to the centre.
I reckon 48 could well be more in danger than 48A. 5 could be extended to Emersons Green to cover the demand between there and Downend on a more realistic frequency, with Y2 being returned to a sensible headway in order to provide the primary Downend service. It would save an awful lot of buses, which may become a fashionable move in the near future.