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First Group: General Discussion

Jordan Adam

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First Aberdeen do all the closed contracts for the council schools too. The reason you may not have seen coaches on Rail Replacement would have been because they were busy elsewhere. While what drivers say can be useful at times quite often it's false rumours that have been spread around. In fairness it doesn't take a genius to work out the coach hire side is very profitable! While they have pulled out of the touring work the fleet size has increased so they can focus more on the school and oil work which is more sustainable.
 
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Volvodart

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The only increase has been the 4 Caetanos that have started to be used on rail replacements. All the others have replaced older coaches and minibuses.
 
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Star5

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Annual results are due out in the next few hours....

Expecting a big announcement (s) following the last few months. Gonna be an interesting day for First I think.
 

Volvodart

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http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/first_group/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=858&newsid=1035076

Just lead summary posted below due to length of message

FIRSTGROUP PLC - Final Results
Released : 31.05.2018

THIS ANNOUNCEMENT CONTAINS INSIDE INFORMATION

FIRSTGROUP PLC
RESULTS FOR THE YEAR TO 31 MARCH 2018

Overview of the year

Group revenue +1.0% in constant currency excluding benefit of new SWR franchise and 53rd week

Adjusted1 operating profit decreased by 10.4% in constant currency excluding SWR and 53rd week

Balance sheet strengthened by net cash flow of £199.0m and bond refinancing

Stable adjusted EPS in constant currency, reflecting lower finance costs and change to US tax rates

Statutory loss before tax principally reflects non-cash impairment of Greyhound goodwill and onerous contract provision on TransPennine Express (TPE) rail franchise

Tim O'Toole will be stepping down today from the Board and his position as Chief Executive. Wolfhart Hauser to become Executive Chairman; Matthew Gregory to become interim COO in addition to CFO

Adjusted1 2018

£m 2017

£m Change Change in constant currency2 SWR- and 53rd week-adjusted change, in constant currency3
Revenue 6,398.4 5,653.3 +13.2% +14.0% +1.0%
Operating profit 317.0 339.0 (6.5)% (4.3)% (10.4)%
Operating profit margin 5.0% 6.0% (100)bps (90)bps
Profit before tax 197.0 207.0 (4.8)% (1.2)%
EPS 12.3p 12.4p (0.8)% +3.4%
Net debt4 1,070.3 1,289.9 (17.0)% (15.5)%
Statutory 2018

£m 2017

£m Change
Revenue 6,398.4 5,653.3 +13.2%
Operating (loss)/profit (196.2) 283.6 n/m6
(Loss)/profit before tax (326.9) 152.6 n/m6
EPS (24.6)p 9.3p n/m6
Financial summary (percentage changes in constant currency unless otherwise stated)

Group revenue +1.0% excluding the benefit of both the new SWR rail franchise from August 2017 and the 53rd week in the Road divisions; +14.0% including both

Adjusted1 operating profit (10.4)% excluding SWR and 53rd week reflects Greyhound long haul challenges, severe weather effects on both sides of the Atlantic in the final quarter and ongoing US driver shortages, partially offset by good performances in UK divisions in the year; (4.3)% including SWR and 53rd week

Adjusted1 profit before tax (1.2)% and adjusted1 EPS +3.4%, reflecting lower finance costs and US tax rates

Net cash inflow of £110.5m (2017: £147.2m including proceeds from sale of a Greyhound terminal) before First Rail start of franchise cash flows, and £199.0m after SWR start of franchise cash flows of £88.5m

Reported net debt: EBITDA improved to 1.5 times (2017: 1.9 times); Rail ring-fenced cash adjusted net debt: EBITDA improved to 2.1 times (2017: 2.3 times)

Statutory loss before tax £326.9m (2017: profit of £152.6m), reflecting £277.3m Greyhound goodwill and other asset impairments, £106.3m TPE onerous contract provision and other adjusting items

Statutory EPS was (24.6)p (2017: 9.3p)

Divisional performance

First Student's pricing and cost saving actions offset driver shortage costs; 9.0% adjusted1 margin reflects severe H2 weather and lower contract retention rate than targeted

First Transit revenue +2.4% in constant currency excluding 53rd week as net contract wins continue; 5.5% adjusted1 margin for the year reflects the improved margin performance in the second half as planned

Greyhound like-for-like5 revenue (0.7)%, with +7.7% Express growth insufficient to offset long haul demand challenges from intensifying airline competition; consequential reduction in adjusted1 margin to 3.6%

First Bus like-for-like5 passenger revenue +1.1% with +0.2% commercial volumes; 140bps adjusted1 margin improvement to 5.7% driven by actions to tailor network, fares, depot footprint and back office costs

First Rail like-for-like5 passenger revenue +4.1%, and solid divisional profitability, with contributions by Great Western Railway (GWR) and SWR, partially offset by a small loss in TPE in the year

Outlook

Expecting overall improvement in Road margins and returns, offset by a smaller contribution from the First Rail portfolio, resulting in broadly stable Group earnings in constant currency

Higher free cash generation after disciplined investment expected from Road divisions offset by a lower cash contribution from Rail in the year ahead

Commenting, Chief Financial Officer and interim Chief Operating Officer Matthew Gregory said:

"In the year, our largest division First Student was broadly stable and First Bus took an encouraging step forward in its margin improvement plans. This was offset by the cost challenges experienced by First Transit in the first half and by Greyhound’s inability to overcome the structural shift taking place in its long haul markets, as ultra low cost airlines significantly increase capacity and extend into new markets. In First Rail, although our GWR and SWR rail franchises have operational challenges to overcome, they are both profitable and are adding value to the Group. However our TPE franchise was loss-making, and we have taken the decision to provide for forecasted losses of up to £106.3m over the remaining life of the contract. This does not affect our plans for the remainder of the franchise to increase capacity on the TPE network by more than 80% and create a true intercity railway for the North.

"Looking forward, we expect Group adjusted earnings to be broadly stable, with opportunities to improve the margins, returns and cash generated from our Road divisions, which together represent more than four fifths of the Group's adjusted profit, in a period when we expect the contribution of our Rail portfolio to be positive but smaller while we put in place the passenger capacity and conditions for further profitable growth in the division in future."

Executive Chairman Wolfhart Hauser said:

"The Group delivered stable adjusted earnings per share and sustained cash generation this year, and the balance sheet has been strengthened through the bond refinancing and further deleveraging. FirstGroup's vision and purpose is to provide solutions for an increasingly congested world, keeping people moving and communities prospering, and as such the Group plays a vital role in all of our local areas. It is now a more stable and a more resilient enterprise, with a growing ability to capitalise on the leading positions we have in our markets. However, this year's results fell short of our ambitions – we are disappointed that we did not make the further progress we intended based on the trends we saw at the end of the previous financial year.

"The Board is examining all appropriate means to mobilise the considerable value inherent in the Group. Initial actions from its evaluation are underway, including conducting a full external review of Greyhound's business model and prospects, which will conclude in the coming months. As we do so, we will continue to strengthen the Group by using the sustained cash generated after disciplined investment to reduce leverage further and for targeted growth. Overall, we see considerable opportunity to deliver shareholder value in a sustainable way while enhancing the services we provide to our customers and communities."
 

winston270twm

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Tim O'Toole is out.

That move was well overdue, but as reflected by the fall in profits & no other significant actions being taken it's just businesses usual. Investors are obviously still disappointed by the lack of decisive action, hence the share price fall. Even with a new CEO it will be another year before a new strategy is formalized & even longer before any benefits are reflected in the results.....
 

Robertj21a

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That move was well overdue, but as reflected by the fall in profits & no other significant actions being taken it's just businesses usual. Investors are obviously still disappointed by the lack of decisive action, hence the share price fall. Even with a new CEO it will be another year before a new strategy is formalized & even longer before any benefits are reflected in the results.....

Hopefully the review of Greyhound will suggest a sell off. Would there be enough interested buyers to obtain a good price ?
 

winston270twm

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Hopefully the review of Greyhound will suggest a sell off. Would there be enough interested buyers to obtain a good price ?

Not sure, Greyhound's not the business it was & with the arrival of Flixbus, that may dampen appetite. I would think it would be too big an acquisition for NX Group to consider, unless their UK & ALSA experience could significantly drive up profits, same with Stagecoach. Other than that, private equity?

Think FGP have missed the boat to sell Greyhound for a good price, far more competition now....
 

smtglasgow

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UK Bus seems to be doing slightly better – although still poor when compared against its peer group. A friend who works for Network Rail in the London HQ has been predicting dire things for both the TPE and Northern franchises for the last six months - he describes both as toxic – so I suspect Firstgroup’s fortunes may ultimately depend on rail performance as much as anything else.
 

Robertj21a

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Not sure, Greyhound's not the business it was & with the arrival of Flixbus, that may dampen appetite. I would think it would be too big an acquisition for NX Group to consider, unless their UK & ALSA experience could significantly drive up profits, same with Stagecoach. Other than that, private equity?

Think FGP have missed the boat to sell Greyhound for a good price, far more competition now....

Spot on, my views too.
 

Volvodart

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Greyhounds short haul and express make money so they should be able to sell them. Long haul not so though. They have been pulling out of some places recently with local operators providing some sort of replacement service.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Not sure, Greyhound's not the business it was & with the arrival of Flixbus, that may dampen appetite. I would think it would be too big an acquisition for NX Group to consider, unless their UK & ALSA experience could significantly drive up profits, same with Stagecoach. Other than that, private equity?

Think FGP have missed the boat to sell Greyhound for a good price, far more competition now....
That £750m that Souter offered in 2007 seems a long time ago.

Looks like they are taking the hit on Greyhound up front (so Tim takes the bullet now) in readiness for a disposal. Don’t know how much that values Greyhound at nor the actual value of any assets though!

The TPE issue is as we’ve discussed before and I’d heard that it was losing money but SWR was ok. Whether a new CEO sucks up £20m a year losses on that (or more) will be interesting.

The only positives are uplift in UK bus in margin and patronage, improved cash flow following SWR and improving debt position, partly through cash flow improvements and the securing of lower rate facilities.
 

overthewater

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WELL its anyone gusse whats going to happen now: It looks like the For sale sign is now up....

On the talk of Greyhound I think if Stagecoach had gotten it years ago, it think would have asset striped the company, merged the best parts into Megabus and sold of crappy buildings along with none core routes.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/31/firstgroup-boss-sacked-company-swings-loss/

The interim boss of troubled transport company First Group has said he will accept a bid for all or part of the company after its chief executive Tim O’Toole was sacked and the firm swung to a major loss.

Wolfhart Hauser, who has become executive chairman, said if an offer created value for shareholders, it was something he would consider.

“We have evaluated all opportunities, which also refers to bids for the whole company,” he said.

“If it creates value for shareholders, we are open to that. We have never said we are not flexible to part of the group [being bid for] or an overall bid but it must create value.”

Mr Hauser was speaking as the Aberdeen-based bus and rail group plunged to a £327m pre-tax loss for the year to March 31 compared to a £152.6m profit the prior year. Sales rose to £6.4bn, or 13.2pc, but only because of the recent South Western rail contract win and a 53rd week in the numbers. The biggest blows came from a £277m write-down of the value of its Greyhound business and a provision for an expected £106m loss on its TransPennine Express rail franchise, which runs until March 2023. The company also pointed to “cost challenges” in its First Transit business, where it lost two key Canadian oil industry contracts.

The executive chairman added the company would not be disclosing the details of the approaches by US private equity firm Apollo, which it rejected to the annoyance of some investors.

Activist West Face Capital, now a top 20 investor, has also agitated for change calling for bits of the company to be sold.

Mr Hauser acknowledged a full review of its Greyhound business was being undertaken by external advisers and the outcome should be revealed at the company’s half-year results. While Greyhound’s short-haul business prospered, profits slumped 39pc to £25.5m, which it blamed on heightened competition from low-cost airlines against its long-haul routes.

Mr Hauser said Mr O’Toole had “said he wanted to go” and that while it might look “a little bit unexpected or fast” the now former boss had achieved things that shareholders should not forget, including improving the amount of cash the company generates and reducing its debt.

Details of Mr O’Toole’s severance package are set to be released in the coming days, Mr Hauser said. The company’s 2017 annual report showed Mr O’Toole’s salary from April 1 last year was £845,625, flat on the prior year. It also outlined a potential annual bonus of 120pc of salary based on certain performance metrics, half of which is deferred for three years.

The shock of Mr O’Toole’s departure and the poor results led to the company leading the FTSE All Share’s fallers, with the stock down more than 14pc to 94.6p.

BY Bradley Gerrard and Ayesha Javed
31st MAY 2018 • 4:05PM


Also if First is sold off how much money will O'Tool end up making from the shares he owns?
 
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Robertj21a

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WELL its anyone gusse whats going to happen now: It looks like the For sale sign is now up....

On the talk of Greyhound I think if Stagecoach had got years ago, it think would have asset striped the company and merged the best parts into Megabus and sold of crappy buildings of none core routes.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/31/firstgroup-boss-sacked-company-swings-loss/




Also if First is sold off how much money will O'Tool end up making from the shares he owns?

A lot less than he would have done if he'd successfully turned it around. Greyhound should have been sold off years ago and the fact that the whole group, or parts of it, is for sale has been understood to be the case for some time too.
 

overthewater

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Maybe selling it to apollo would have been better, Apollo could have help hide this years losses...
 

WatcherZero

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Rail Revenue growth 2018/2017
Great Western Railway (GWR) 2.7% 0.3%
TransPennine Express (TPE) 10.0% 5.9%
Hull Trains 3.3% 5.8%

Overall Rail revenue £1,968.8m up 3.8% like for like
Profit 57.8 -10.6%
Operating Margin 2.9% (down from 4.2%)

c.£350-360m capital investment next year mostly in First Student and First Transit
First Rail expected investment to rise substantially, but funds already allocated under contracts not requiring any new input
£106.3m accounting charge for potential losses on TPE contract over its lifetime
£277.3m writedown of goodwill in Greyhound from expected falling demand and increased competition
First Student they are aggresivley negotiating increased prices on contract renewals leading to lower than expected contract retention

Overall the bus divisions were collectively flat, some slightly improving in performance, some slightly decreasing
 

WatcherZero

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RMT press release attacking the company for making huge losses because it was so profitable......
 

Anthony ross

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Hazzarding a guess I think we could see first being eiether being sold off a complete company or individual parts sold of to other operators
 

Megafuss

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Doubt Stagecoach will buy parts of First, they have enough problems to deal within various Bus divisions at it is
 

goldisgood

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Doubt Stagecoach will buy parts of First, they have enough problems to deal within various Bus divisions at it is
I doubt they would want much of First anyway. Would they try to get West of England, which shouldn't be any problem with the CMA? It seems fairly lucrative and ties in nicely with the rest of their operation.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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I doubt they would want much of First anyway. Would they try to get West of England, which shouldn't be any problem with the CMA? It seems fairly lucrative and ties in nicely with the rest of their operation.
Sale of FWoE to Stagecoach not having a problem with the CMA? A continuous slab of territory from the Eastern Valleys across into Glos/Wilts and then into Bristol and Somerset with only BoS to act as a break before it gets to Devon!
 

overthewater

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I still wonder why Stagecoach is the one being touted, I think It would be someone completely different IF Anything else was to go. Berkshire seems to be the one to watch,

BUT If someone said here's a briefcase full of money for X, I it take First will throw the dead at you and run with the money?

he will accept a bid for all or part of the company

Is he trying to drum up buyers for something or all? or just the UK trains etc Big difference having everything up for sale, and just making believe you do.
 

Megafuss

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I doubt they would want much of First anyway. Would they try to get West of England, which shouldn't be any problem with the CMA? It seems fairly lucrative and ties in nicely with the rest of their operation.

The only realistic operation I could see Stagecoach being interested in is Leicester.

It would be relatively cheap for a city network, a good base for its Midlands OpCo and could help the X7 and 48 services they already run there
 

nesw

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Don't rule out some of the France or Singapore based groups taking an interest in parts of UK Bus.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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I still wonder why Stagecoach is the one being touted, I think It would be someone completely different IF Anything else was to go. Berkshire seems to be the one to watch,

BUT If someone said here's a briefcase full of money for X, I it take First will throw the dead at you and run with the money?



Is he trying to drum up buyers for something or all? or just the UK trains etc Big difference having everything up for sale, and just making believe you do.
Perhaps as much for the shareholders and a commitment to do what is needed to return value to them??
 

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