First Group: General Discussion

[Baxenden Bank]

It's very rare but for once I probably agree with First. It's going to be quite a challenge to get back up to 80% in just a few months

Indeed, and what efforts are they making to rise to that challenge? Tell people to still not use their services, shrug their shoulders, dog-in-a-manger, couldn't care less attitude. Oh well, if passengers don't come back we will just have to cut even faster than we have been doing anyway.

Cause and effect. Tell everyone not to use your services then wonder why no-one is using them. It takes a short time (average 21 days) to form a new permanent habit, people have been told not to travel by public transport for over 100 days. As of now I am still being told by First to only make 'essential' journeys - despite most activities I would use the bus (or train) for now being open for business. My journey is not 'essential' so I don't. Fare revenue remains in my pocket.

I didn't see Tesco preferring me not to use their shops please, the high street retailers had no choice in the matter, it remains to be seen what damage has been done to the many businesses closed for so long.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I expect them to come out fighting.

Clearly they have to speak the truth to the stock exchange in terms of impact on the business going forwards.

However, as I understand it, the government has offered support to top up revenue to normal levels, ENCTS money has been paid regardless of wrinklies not actually travelling yet my local operator had well under 1/3 of it's buses on the road for a good while. Kerching! Unless I've missed something vital.

The 25% cut in capacity is baloney, chosen by the operator for whatever reason - to make worried people feel safe to use the bus seems to be the general aim. Rosso (Transdev) has removed it's artificial capacity limits. Perhaps a business with it's eye on the future rather than it's eye on public support forevermore.

"To come out fighting" is Boris speak - be brave, be British, and we can do it. Now look at the reality. The money that is being handed to bus and train operators won't last forever. At some point, if a vaccine is discovered or possibly not, the money will be turned off and operators will have to live with a much changed market. That customers will come back as previously just won't happen - my other half was office bound. Nearly four months later, and having been issued with a lap top etc, I can see her working half her time at home. Also, the amount of online shopping will simply be higher; it was going that way but Covid turbocharged this move.

And yes, you have missed something vital. Whilst operators have benefited from the furlough scheme, and the other funding, and also tried to reduce some costs by SORNing fleet, the long term concerns remain.

First are simply being realistic. The 25% is based on guidelines from the government; it is a matter of public record. They were advised including ensuring "cleaning stations, services and equipment regularly, communicating passenger flows and trying to keep both staff and customers 2 metres apart." https://www.parliament.uk/business/...maintain-social-distance-on-public-transport/

 

[carlberry]

Indeed, and what efforts are they making to rise to that challenge? Tell people to still not use their services, shrug their shoulders, dog-in-a-manger, couldn't care less attitude. Oh well, if passengers don't come back we will just have to cut even faster than we have been doing anyway.

Cause and effect. Tell everyone not to use your services then wonder why no-one is using them. It takes a short time (average 21 days) to form a new permanent habit, people have been told not to travel by public transport for over 100 days. As of now I am still being told by First to only make 'essential' journeys - despite most activities I would use the bus (or train) for now being open for business. My journey is not 'essential' so I don't. Fare revenue remains in my pocket.

I didn't see Tesco preferring me not to use their shops please, the high street retailers had no choice in the matter, it remains to be seen what damage has been done to the many businesses closed for so long.

First are following government advice. Whilst there are a few companies that make headlines by completely ignoring it the majority go along with it. There would be a whole raft of people complaining if First had run adverts over the last 100 days, or even 10 days, promoting bus travel and advising people to go out and use the bus for extra journeys. Even now the government advice about public transport is luke warm yet, despite that, First are starting the open top services in Cornwall next week which can hardly be said to be shrugging their shoulders and cutting back.

 

[Robertj21a]

Indeed, and what efforts are they making to rise to that challenge? Tell people to still not use their services, shrug their shoulders, dog-in-a-manger, couldn't care less attitude. Oh well, if passengers don't come back we will just have to cut even faster than we have been doing anyway.

Cause and effect. Tell everyone not to use your services then wonder why no-one is using them. It takes a short time (average 21 days) to form a new permanent habit, people have been told not to travel by public transport for over 100 days. As of now I am still being told by First to only make 'essential' journeys - despite most activities I would use the bus (or train) for now being open for business. My journey is not 'essential' so I don't. Fare revenue remains in my pocket.

I didn't see Tesco preferring me not to use their shops please, the high street retailers had no choice in the matter, it remains to be seen what damage has been done to the many businesses closed for so long.

It's not First asking you to not use their buses. As with the rest of the country, it's at the request of the government.

 

[Astradyne]

I don't know what you expect them to report, it has to be realistic.

We've just had 3 months of the government telling everybody to avoid public transport because it's dirty and it can kill you, every office based company in the country has been through a 3 months learning curve on how to work with some/all of it's employees outside the office and lots of people have just been introduced to online shopping/ordering for the first time. Every bus is operating at 25% capacity for an indeterminate time and the rail division has been renationalised in the short term with an uncertain future and lots of people wanting it renationalised permanently.

I'd say anybody who's given themselves a target of 80% within less than a year is being an optimist, without the government is going to pay for empty buses ad infinitum!

Think the dirty and it can kill you message came from within the industry and UNITE, particularly London.

 

[Hophead]

Supermarkets, too, are operating at a fraction of their normal capacity. There are queues to get in most of them and nowhere near the usual number of shoppers inside. Of course, there is the option of home delivery to maintain sales and profit, but that's not something a bus operator is able to provide.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

First are following government advice. Whilst there are a few companies that make headlines by completely ignoring it the majority go along with it. There would be a whole raft of people complaining if First had run adverts over the last 100 days, or even 10 days, promoting bus travel and advising people to go out and use the bus for extra journeys. Even now the government advice about public transport is luke warm yet, despite that, First are starting the open top services in Cornwall next week which can hardly be said to be shrugging their shoulders and cutting back.

It's not First asking you to not use their buses. As with the rest of the country, it's at the request of the government.

There is, of course a middle ground.

Actively encouraging passengers (or other business) against the advice of government at the height of the pandemic would, indeed, be foolish. Similarly pro-actively discouraging virtually all of your customers (key worker message, absolutely essential travel message, minimal frequencies making use unnattracive) is equally foolish.

As also happened with certain rail operators (Northern, EMR, LNR, Scotrail), taking on board the government message with maximum enthusiasm and then turning it up to 11 seems a little foolhardy. Particularly for any business with an eye on the future. Any fule kno that a government can turn on the drop of a hat if expedient to do so.

Advice is just that, legislation is something different. No legislation was put in place regarding travel by public transport, the 'stay at home' regulations were quite sufficient to control numbers of potential users.

Turning up the restrictions (in capacity) as we come out of the pandemic just feels like another measure to let me know just how unwelcome my custom remains.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

There is, of course a middle ground.

Actively encouraging passengers (or other business) against the advice of government at the height of the pandemic would, indeed, be foolish. Similarly pro-actively discouraging virtually all of your customers (key worker message, absolutely essential travel message, minimal frequencies making use unnattracive) is equally foolish.

As also happened with certain rail operators (Northern, EMR, LNR, Scotrail), taking on board the government message with maximum enthusiasm and then turning it up to 11 seems a little foolhardy. Particularly for any business with an eye on the future. Any fule kno that a government can turn on the drop of a hat if expedient to do so.

Advice is just that, legislation is something different. No legislation was put in place regarding travel by public transport, the 'stay at home' regulations were quite sufficient to control numbers of potential users.

Turning up the restrictions (in capacity) as we come out of the pandemic just feels like another measure to let me know just how unwelcome my custom remains.

I do think you have a valid point in terms of how some businesses are approaching this. Transdev have been quite subtle in how they have adopted these guidelines and, in all fairness, they have also revised it to 1m rather than the 2m originally stipulated by the government. I believe National Express coaches are also on 1m with people in window seats though high backed seats do perhaps explain that.

Most other firms are still on 2m and, as Roger French has pointed out in his excellent blog, the subtlety of Transdev is in marked contrast to the "crime scene" approach adopted by other firms like First. If a major group breaks ranks, and I'm surprised Stagecoach haven't done this, then expect the rest of the industry to follow suit.

However, the bus industry as a whole needs to get onto government and get the avoid public transport message amended; just travel safely!

 

[-Colly405-]

In all the government communications I've read (i.e. the official docs, not media spin) I've not seen one that said public transport was unclean/unsafe/etc. What they did say was "avoid using public transport unless you absolutely have to", but this has usually been a couple of paragraphs away from saying that essential workers should go to work, and buses are limited capacity.

I think the facemask / sanitiser / etc. discussions clouded the issue, which was always simply that people should avoid public transport if they could so that there was capacity for those who couldn't and had to get to work.

Of course, how companies interpreted this may be partly to blame...

 

[Goldfish62]

I do think you have a valid point in terms of how some businesses are approaching this. Transdev have been quite subtle in how they have adopted these guidelines and, in all fairness, they have also revised it to 1m rather than the 2m originally stipulated by the government. I believe National Express coaches are also on 1m with people in window seats though high backed seats do perhaps explain that.

Most other firms are still on 2m and, as Roger French has pointed out in his excellent blog, the subtlety of Transdev is in marked contrast to the "crime scene" approach adopted by other firms like First. If a major group breaks ranks, and I'm surprised Stagecoach haven't done this, then expect the rest of the industry to follow suit.

However, the bus industry as a whole needs to get onto government and get the avoid public transport message amended; just travel safely!

Stagecoach has just broken ranks and increased capacity to 50%, which each pair of seats occupied, alternately window and aisle. I'd expect First and others to follow suit.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Stagecoach has just broken ranks and increased capacity to 50%, which each pair of seats occupied, alternately window and aisle. I'd expect First and others to follow suit.

And as if by magic.....

(for people of a certain age, the next line is "the shopkeeper appeared" )

 

[richw]

Stagecoach has just broken ranks and increased capacity to 50%, which each pair of seats occupied, alternately window and aisle. I'd expect First and others to follow suit.

They haven’t broken ranks.
The CPT have been in constant dialogue with DfT.
First revised capacity vinyls were with the printers yesterday.
Arriva announced in Facebook their new capacities on Monday would apply from Wednesday.

 

[overthewater]

Isn't this only for England?

 

[Goldfish62]

They haven’t broken ranks.
The CPT have been in constant dialogue with DfT.
First revised capacity vinyls were with the printers yesterday.
Arriva announced in Facebook their new capacities on Monday would apply from Wednesday.

Thanks - that's good news.

TfL are doing likewise from next week as well.

 

[Stan Drews]

Isn't this only for England?

Not any more!

 

[overthewater]

That is good news, However I doubt we will see any improvements until August now.

 

[317 forever]

According to Route One, First are looking to buy their final diesel bus by December 2022 and to go zero emission by 2035.

First Bus makes 2035 zero-emission commitment - routeone

First Bus has committed to operating a zero-emission bus fleet in the UK by 2035, and buying no more new diesel buses after December 2022.

www.route-one.net

First Bus has committed to operating a zero-emission bus fleet in the UK by 2035. As part of that, it does not plan to purchase any new diesel buses after December 2022, parent FirstGroup’s annual results to 31 March have revealed.

First Bus recorded an adjusted operating profit of £46.1m on a revenue of £835.9m for the period, drops of 29.2% and 4.6% respectively from the previous 12 months. The decline in turnover is partly related to the sale of depots at Bolton and Manchester to Rotala and Go-Ahead respectively.

Parent FirstGroup reported a statutory operating loss of £152.7m on revenues of £7.75bn during the period. That reflects costs and charges incurred largely in the group’s North American businesses, which the group remains “resolutely committed to and engaged in” the divestment of.

First Bus like-for-like passenger revenue growth to the end of February was 1.8% the report continues, although demand patterns depending on local conditions.

Fare-paying passenger revenue and concessionary volumes dropped by around 90% from the onset of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in the second half of March, following which around 55% of the First Bus workforce was subject to the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.

Only 10% of First Bus customers currently pay by cash, with contactless and mobile payments being favoured. In addition, the report points to the work done in the upgrade of the First Bus passenger app. It now allows customers to check vehicle capacity in real time while waiting.

Additionally, First Bus has welcomed the change in the political climate for buses and says it “looks forward to working closely with our supply chain, industry partners and the UK government to ensure that our shared ambitions can be taken forward following the current crisis.”

Work to address the First Bus cost base has been slower than planned because of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. Among the process that will involve is the use of “more granular” passenger data generated by digital ticketing systems.

On its zero-emission goal, First Bus says that 35% of its fleet is now made up of buses that comply with Euro VI standards or are zero-emission. That includes a large batch of biogas-fuelled Scania ADL Enviro400CBG double-deckers in Bristol, the last of which recently entered service.

30 battery-electric buses are either being delivered or are on order. Others are already in service, including two in Glasgow. First Aberdeen is “preparing” to launch 15 hydrogen fuel cell-electric double-deckers built by Wrightbus. Further vehicle investment will be focused on environmental and partnership commitments, the group says.

 

[jcf5561]

It will be interesting to see what manufacturer they specify and if they go for full electric or hydrogen.

 

[DD12]

That's funny, - I thought they were going bust !!

 

[richw]

That's funny, - I thought they were going bust !!

You thought completely wrong, probably on basis of reading selective quotes used by certain arms of the media.
they’ve got £850m cash in hand, and the losses relate to write down on prepping the American business for sale according to their report to the stock exchange.

 

[Goldfish62]

It will be interesting to see what manufacturer they specify and if they go for full electric or hydrogen.

They'll undoubtedly source from a number of manufacturers as they do with diesel buses.

 

[Jordan Adam]

It will be interesting to see what manufacturer they specify and if they go for full electric or hydrogen.

I suspect it'll be a mix, when it comes to Hydrogen in the shorterm it'll depend on infrastructure. For that reason if First were to buy Hydrogen Aberdeen would be the most likely candidate since it already has a large fleet already.

Unless I'm wrong they could still buy CBG (Compressed Biogas) buses for long distance routes as these obviously dont fall under "diesel".

 

[Volvodart]

Is there still funding for this, as First have said they will be continuing to invest where there is funding available?

 

[oldman]

they’ve got £850m cash in hand

'Liquidity increased to c.£850m in free cash and committed undrawn facilities'. Not all actual cash.

 

[cnjb8]

I suspect it'll be a mix, when it comes to Hydrogen in the shorterm it'll depend on infrastructure. For that reason if First were to buy Hydrogen Aberdeen would be the most likely candidate since it already has a large fleet already.

Unless I'm wrong they could still buy CBG (Compressed Biogas) buses for long distance routes as these obviously dont fall under "diesel".

But surely hydrogen was chosen because Aberdeen Council lean toward hydrogen, not First. First Glasgow also have two BYD ADL E200EVs.

 

[Jordan Adam]

But surely hydrogen was chosen because Aberdeen Council lean toward hydrogen, not First. First Glasgow also have two BYD ADL E200EVs.

That's a fair point, but i never said Aberdeen would get Hydrogen. I just said that if First did invest in Hydrogen places that already have the infrastructure and existing experience with Hydrogen vehicles would be more likely, Aberdeen being the prime example. Battery electrics are not the future imo, but that's a discussion for elsewhere.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That's a fair point, but i never said Aberdeen would get Hydrogen. I just said that if First did invest in Hydrogen places that already have the infrastructure and existing experience with Hydrogen vehicles would be more likely, Aberdeen being the prime example. Battery electrics are not the future imo, but that's a discussion for elsewhere.

Yeah, that makes sense. In much the same way that Bristol will continue with Biogas having got a substantial fleet and the associated infrastructure there.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

That's funny, - I thought they were going bust !!

This is why I don't read the Guardian or the Daily Mail as there is too much fake news that is written in a way that is beliveable. I try and cross source (provided that one of the sources isn't taken down and or removed) if I can so that if one rag says one thing it can cross checked with another so see what they say before forming an opinion.

If FirstGroup were to go into administration, only Bristol (& the West of England) and Leeds (York & West Yorkshire) would suvive what with them being money spinners, the rest would be hived off to other operators.

 

[richw]

This is why I don't read the Guardian or the Daily Mail as there is too much fake news that is written in a way that is beliveable. I try and cross source (provided that one of the sources isn't taken down and or removed) if I can so that if one rag says one thing it can cross checked with another so see what they say before forming an opinion.

If FirstGroup were to go into administration, only Bristol (& the West of England) and Leeds (York & West Yorkshire) would suvive what with them being money spinners, the rest would be hived off to other operators.

Southwest (Cornwall/Somerset) is also turning decent profits now

 

[winston270twm]

This is why I don't read the Guardian or the Daily Mail as there is too much fake news that is written in a way that is beliveable. I try and cross source (provided that one of the sources isn't taken down and or removed) if I can so that if one rag says one thing it can cross checked with another so see what they say before forming an opinion.

If FirstGroup were to go into administration, only Bristol (& the West of England) and Leeds (York & West Yorkshire) would suvive what with them being money spinners, the rest would be hived off to other operators.

If First Group were to go in to administration, the lot would be hived off to other operators / buyers or simply shutdown, First wouldn't be able to pick & choose what they wanted to keep.