Flybe Collapses

[edwin_m]

However once HS2 is operational the train journey time would be about 2:30 via Old Oak Common. At the opening of Phase 1 is likely to be about 3 hours.

That's going to make rail more attractive.

However it's at least a decade out, and probably requires the Heathrow Southern Link to be implemented as a through service to Paddington to provide the necessary connection to OOC. The airlines will be quite happy to make money on the route in the meantime and drop the route then if it's no longer viable.

Only if it’s a lot cheaper. For most people, they are going to want to get from A to B as quickly as possible, so they will get the plane in most cases.

But if the train journey is less than about 3hr, nearly everybody will find it quicker than flying once the times to, from and at the airport are taken into account. Sure there will be some people whose origins and destinations are close to the respective airports but as airports tend to be in less populated areas they will be a fairly small fraction of the total number flying. And if the total number flying now only fills a handful of small aircraft each day, reducing the train journey below 3hr almost certainly means the end of that air route. As to price, again, the fact Flybe has gone under suggests they were charging too little and replacement operators will charge more. Fares should be lower on HS2, and indeed on XC if they ever get more or longer trains, as they will no longer be capacity limited. Reducing those fares will do more for the English regions than trying to subsidise air travel.

Just to put the superiority of Air Travel into perspective on long distances

I join the Highland Chieftain at my home station Falkirk Grahamston heading for Inverness.

An Embraer 195 takes off from Southampton Airport at the same time. It climbs to just below 40,000 feet and cruising at Mach 0.87 easily beats the Train into Inverness.

It's only 155 miles from Falkirk to Inverness yet the train takes 3 hours !!!

The Embraer could practically fly from Southampton to Inverness and back before the Train has even got from Falkirk to Inverness.

I agree that rail isn't viable for Southampton to Inverness for anyone who is at all time-sensitive, but your comparison with Falkirk journeys seems a little odd, and as usual you ignore airport access and time at the airport. For many people travelling between Falkirk and Inverness the door-to-door journey would be just as quick by train - even if there were direct flights between Edinburgh and Inverness.

 

[mwmbwls]

Eastern are starting SOU-MAN this coming week, initially 2x daily Mon-Fri with a reduced frequency over the weekend.
The online timetable shows they’ll be using an E170 on this route.

Flybe were operating 6x flights a day on most days, with a reduced frequency at weekends.
Manchester has been Southampton’s busiest domestic destination for many years.
Timetabled for 1hr 5 mins, a Dash 8 would regularly do the trip with 37 to 43 minutes, actual airborne time.
Flybe E195’s and E175’s ...and before that, their E145’s...would often complete the trip with around 30 mins actual flying time. Beats the 4 hour journey on the direct XC service hands down.


*

Flight duration is indicative but not necessarily the only measure - Door to Door time is what counts.

 

[Bald Rick]

Eastern are starting SOU-MAN this coming week, initially 2x daily Mon-Fri with a reduced frequency over the weekend.
The online timetable shows they’ll be using an E170 on this route.

Flybe were operating 6x flights a day on most days, with a reduced frequency at weekends.
Manchester has been Southampton’s busiest domestic destination for many years.
Timetabled for 1hr 5 mins, a Dash 8 would regularly do the trip with 37 to 43 minutes, actual airborne time.
Flybe E195’s and E175’s ...and before that, their E145’s...would often complete the trip with around 30 mins actual flying time. Beats the 4 hour journey on the direct XC service hands down.

The nub of the issue is that Flybe were operating 6 flights a day. For, say, easyjet, 200k passengers pa on a route equates to 2 flights a day, using A319s. Far, far more efficient.

On (say) 6 services a day you're likely to have to wait 2 to 3 hours between flights. Whilst even on current service provision you'll have a maximum of 1 hour wait for a train.

That's going to mean that unless the flight does at exactly the right time chances are going by train is likely to be "quicker" (or at least get you there at the time most suited to when you want to go).

It doesn’t, because almost everyone books for a specific flight, and adjusts their schedule accordingly.

 

[Starmill]

It doesn’t, because almost everyone books for a specific flight, and adjusts their schedule accordingly.

So will almost eveyone buying a train ticket, given the walk-on single fare of £120.40 or £132.40.

 

[Starmill]

Oh and by the way, Monday 23 March, you can fly from Southampton to Manchester at 0715 with Eastern Airways for £49.12, or choose the cheapest Advance ticket on a train that morning for £127.10.

 

[miami]

£121 return, £60 each way, or 27p per mile. Not great, but not terrible. We know that XC is overcrowded, but we also know there's not much of a market from Southampton to Manchester even at £35 each way.

How much is an appropiate cost per mile for traveling?

 

[Starmill]

£121 return, £60 each way, or 27p per mile.

Not valid to arrive in Manchester until 1424. The fares I quoted would permit a 0924 arrival, although they would require leaving just as early as for the 0715 flight which could have you in central Manchester sooner.

It's also a myth that all XC trains are overcrowded. The 0927 almost always leaves Manchester Piccadilly with large numbers of free seats, and they're not all taken by people joining at Stockport and Macclesfield.

That's not really the point being made though. The point being made was that lot of people book rail journeys like this in the same sort of way that they book flights, by fixing them a couple of weeks in advance. They'll compare the prices broadly side by side, whether they should or not, whether they're technically comparable or not.

I agree that £60 each way represents a realistic price for Southampton to Manchester btw, but people don't want 'realistic' - they want 'cheap'. And there are rather a lot of hoops to jump through to get that price.

 

[Starmill]

One thing that will be fascinating, while we're on the subject of CrossCountry, is whether a short term collapse in demand for short journeys to Southampton Airport will be balanced out over time by their ability to increase their market share for people making long journeys from Southampton and its Airport's catchment.

 

[edwin_m]

It doesn’t, because almost everyone books for a specific flight, and adjusts their schedule accordingly.

So will almost eveyone buying a train ticket, given the walk-on single fare of £120.40 or £132.40.

But there are more trains to choose from, so even if you book in advance you have more options to avoid a long wait, for example if several people from different places are meeting and the time has to be chosen to suit all of them.

One thing that will be fascinating, while we're on the subject of CrossCountry, is whether a short term collapse in demand for short journeys to Southampton Airport will be balanced out over time by their ability to increase their market share for people making long journeys from Southampton and its Airport's catchment.

I think a general drop in use of all public transport due to coronavirus will dwarf any such effects.

 

[The Ham]

But there are more trains to choose from, so even if you book in advance you have more options to avoid a long wait, for example if several people from different places are meeting and the time has to be chosen to suit all of them.

I think a general drop in use of all public transport due to coronavirus will dwarf any such effects.

The drop of those flying due to the virus will be huge.

There's reports of airlines flying ghost flights to keep flight slots (as they have to fly 80% of flights to keep all their slots), that must be costing a small fortune add in the loss of income and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw more airlines go under within the year.

The railways are able to recover more quickly, even if the government is forced to nationalise it. It is also likely that people will start using rail more quickly after the virus stops being a problem. It is also likely that people will continue using trains for longer.

As an example people will risk going by train to work but they'll stay at home over going on holiday.

 

[ainsworth74]

We already have several Coronavirus threads. We don't need another one! Let's try and stick vaguely to the topic of Flybe please.

 

[Tetchytyke]

If they don’t make it pay, no one will.

Part of the issue is that EasyJet will only run when there's sufficient demand to fill an A319. But because they've got an A319, they can charge less per seat, pushing fares down. It's essentially seat-dumping.

Here in the Isle of Man, EasyJet only run weekends only in most cases. Daily flights to Belfast and Bristol with Eastern and Flybe respectively went because EasyJet drove down prices on the weekend flights that kept the route going. EasyJet still don't even fly daily to Liverpool.

The posts on here seem to have concentrated on business trips. But Flybe also brought a lot of holiday makers over to the Isle of Man

The tourists will be fine, EasyJet rock up when there's big demand. They have multiple rotations per day during TT fortnight, for instance, before cutting right back in the winter.

It's those who need the flights that are struggling.

Flybe had the contract for hospital flights, for things the Manx can't treat at Noble's. I'm disappointed but not surprised the Manx government had no contingency plan for Flybe failing. Even with the government owning the Steam Packet, they've even refused to get the fastcat out early to Liverpool, so anyone who's had hospital appointments at Alder Hey this week have been screwed. Unless they could pay Steam Packet vehicle prices (which are eye-watering at the best of times) and take the car via Heysham.

My guess for here is that Stobart Air- who had already taken over most Manx flights after Flybe shut the base at Ronaldsway- will keep going just as soon as they find a ticketing system they can piggyback off. It'll be interesting to see if they piggyback off Aer Lingus' ticketing system they use for everything else, or operate using Loganair's system. Stobart just brought in extra ATR72s (which are apparently a lot cheaper to run than Q400s) for the Flybe franchise routes so we'll see.

 

[Bald Rick]

Part of the issue is that EasyJet will only run when there's sufficient demand to fill an A319. But because they've got an A319, they can charge less per seat, pushing fares down.

That’s my point. There’s enough custom between Southampton and each of Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow to operate twice daily with an A319. I expect team orange will be looking at those routes quite hard, and probably dip their toe in the water with one of the Scottish ones.

 

[krus_aragon]

We already have several Coronavirus threads. We don't need another one!

They seem to be contagious.

 

[ainsworth74]

They seem to be contagious.

*frowns disapprovingly*

 

[BananaRepublic]

They seem to be contagious.

Yes, but don’t spread it around.

 

[route101]

That’s my point. There’s enough custom between Southampton and each of Manchester, Edinburgh and Glasgow to operate twice daily with an A319. I expect team orange will be looking at those routes quite hard, and probably dip their toe in the water with one of the Scottish ones.

Can the A319 operate from SOU without payload restictions?

 

[Bald Rick]

Can the A319 operate from SOU without payload restictions?

The runway is about 130m short for the A319 at Maximum Take Off Weight. However, given that we’re talking about runs to Manchester or Scotland, they won’t be at MTOW or anywhere near it.

 

[swt_passenger]

The runway is about 130m short for the A319 at Maximum Take Off Weight. However, given that we’re talking about runs to Manchester or Scotland, they won’t be at MTOW or anywhere near it.

There’s a current application for a 160m extension towards Eastleigh TRSMD. I expect in the current circumstances it’s way down the airport’s priorities.

 

[kieron]

Flybe had the contract for hospital flights, for things the Manx can't treat at Noble's. I'm disappointed but not surprised the Manx government had no contingency plan for Flybe failing. Even with the government owning the Steam Packet, they've even refused to get the fastcat out early to Liverpool, so anyone who's had hospital appointments at Alder Hey this week have been screwed.

The following press release was put on the Isle of Man government web site on Thursday:

Flybe - Update from Patient Transfers
Thursday, 5 March 2020
...
Patients due to attend an appointment from tomorrow (Friday 06/03/2020)

We are in the process of contacting all patients this afternoon and where possible, they will be offered the opportunity to travel to the UK by the evening ferry. Accommodation and travel whilst in the UK will be arranged and funded by the Department.

To me, this suggests the government had a proportionate plan, which they have put into effect at the first opportunity. Has it not worked out?

 

[Tetchytyke]

To me, this suggests the government had a proportionate plan, which they have put into effect at the first opportunity.

The evening ferry dumps you in Heysham at just before midnight, with no public transport from the port. Not *exactly* ideal for a morning appointment in Liverpool.

It's been very poor, when you consider how quickly the Scottish government have moved.

It's also not entirely true what they've said - the government will only offer £50 reimbursement for accommodation, which is the standard amount. Very very poor.

At the very least I'd have expected them to get Mannanan out.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The evening ferry dumps you in Heysham at just before midnight, with no public transport from the port. Not *exactly* ideal for a morning appointment in Liverpool.

It's been very poor, when you consider how quickly the Scottish government have moved.

It's also not entirely true what they've said - the government will only offer £50 reimbursement for accommodation, which is the standard amount. Very very poor.

At the very least I'd have expected them to get Mannanan out.

I'm very surprised the Liverpool route isn't the all year one. For all I love Lancaster, its nearest city, Liverpool is surely the more desirable of the two destinations.

Maybe if the air service doesn't get ramped back up by another airline, they might consider doing that?

 

[Tetchytyke]

I'm very surprised the Liverpool route isn't the all year one.

I think the reasons stem back to Sealink days, but this winter they've not been able to use Birkenhead (where the normal ferry goes on winter weekends) because of building work at the berth. And the fastcat struggles with the Irish Sea in winter.

No reason why the fastcat couldn't have been pressed into service a fortnight early, though.

 

[ainsworth74]

No reason why the fastcat couldn't have been pressed into service a fortnight early, though.

Is she back from her winter maintenance period?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Is she back from her winter maintenance period?

She's in Douglas harbour, so I assume so.

 

[Bald Rick]

There’s a current application for a 160m extension towards Eastleigh TRSMD. I expect in the current circumstances it’s way down the airport’s priorities.

Alternatively it might be near the top of the priorities in order to get an airline (any airline!) in!

 

[kieron]

The evening ferry dumps you in Heysham at just before midnight, with no public transport from the port. Not *exactly* ideal for a morning appointment in Liverpool.

I don't think they'd have given you a 9am appointment if had planned to travel from the Isle of Man that morning, as there's too much which could delay you on the way. As there's no scheduled public transport, I would expect the government to book a taxi from the harbour to the hotel, if it isn't in easy walking distance.

As the press release mentioned, they've tried (or are trying) to speak to everyone affected by this. Whatever the arrangements are, the patients should know what they need to do, and should never feel as though they've been "dumped" anywhere.

It's been very poor, when you consider how quickly the Scottish government have moved.

It's also not entirely true what they've said - the government will only offer £50 reimbursement for accommodation, which is the standard amount. Very very poor.

I think the £50 (which I agree isn't very generous) is for people who have made their own arrangements, as they can factor the limit into the choices they make. If the government books a room, on the other hand, they've made the decisions, and so they can't then ask a patient or relative for money because they made a dear choice.

At the very least I'd have expected them to get Mannanan out.

I have no idea what would be involved in starting a ferry service at very short notice, but it doesn't sound straightforward.

 

[frodshamfella]

Part of the issue is that EasyJet will only run when there's sufficient demand to fill an A319. But because they've got an A319, they can charge less per seat, pushing fares down. It's essentially seat-dumping.

Here in the Isle of Man, EasyJet only run weekends only in most cases. Daily flights to Belfast and Bristol with Eastern and Flybe respectively went because EasyJet drove down prices on the weekend flights that kept the route going. EasyJet still don't even fly daily to Liverpool.



The tourists will be fine, EasyJet rock up when there's big demand. They have multiple rotations per day during TT fortnight, for instance, before cutting right back in the winter.

It's those who need the flights that are struggling.

Flybe had the contract for hospital flights, for things the Manx can't treat at Noble's. I'm disappointed but not surprised the Manx government had no contingency plan for Flybe failing. Even with the government owning the Steam Packet, they've even refused to get the fastcat out early to Liverpool, so anyone who's had hospital appointments at Alder Hey this week have been screwed. Unless they could pay Steam Packet vehicle prices (which are eye-watering at the best of times) and take the car via Heysham.

My guess for here is that Stobart Air- who had already taken over most Manx flights after Flybe shut the base at Ronaldsway- will keep going just as soon as they find a ticketing system they can piggyback off. It'll be interesting to see if they piggyback off Aer Lingus' ticketing system they use for everything else, or operate using Loganair's system. Stobart just brought in extra ATR72s (which are apparently a lot cheaper to run than Q400s) for the Flybe franchise routes so we'll see.

Just read Loganair will do Liverpool to Isle of Man from Thursday this week, twice a day, which is a bit low on frequency but its a start.

 

[markymark2000]

Just read Loganair will do Liverpool to Isle of Man from Thursday this week, twice a day, which is a bit low on frequency but its a start.

Where are LoganAir finding all these aircraft? Are they taking on all of Flybes aircraft or something?

 

[Tetchytyke]

Just read Loganair will do Liverpool to Isle of Man from Thursday this week, twice a day, which is a bit low on frequency but its a start.

That's pretty much what Flybe were doing, to be fair, as they'd binned off the midday flights to Liverpool and Manchester.

I wonder if they'll do it themselves or subcontract to Stobart?

In other news, Flybe owe £300k to the Manx government. Oops.

ETA They've impounded a Q400 until it is paid. Maybe they can use it for patient transfers?