Future for rail in south west Wales

[Western 52]

I thought I’d start a thread to look at the future of the rail routes running west from Swansea to Llanelli, Carmarthen, Pembroke Dock, Milford Haven and Fishguard Harbour. The pandemic has seen a sharp fall in passenger numbers as seen elsewhere, with some signs of recovery but a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic levels. Freight traffic these days consists of oil traffic from Robeston to Theale and Westerleigh, plus traffic to/from Trostre Works.

So, the question is: what ideas are there to regenerate railways in this area in order to grow traffic and ensure their long-term survival? Some possible points for discussion could be:-

Timetable improvements.

Through services from the area to east of Swansea destinations.

New station sites

Potential for more commuters to Swansea and the main towns.

Line speed improvements / electrification.

Better marketing of services / competitive fares.

Holiday market opportunities – Tenby, ferry connections to Ireland, through trains from London and elsewhere.

Opportunities arising from the forthcoming new trains.

New or reopened routes.

Potential for freight.

Maybe an opportunity to be creative here with speculative ideas, but realistically how can we develop these routes for the future? Or maybe their future is limited by geography, economy and competing travel modes? What do members think?

 

[HST43257]

Commented on some I have feelings about.

Timetable improvements.

Through services from the area to east of Swansea destinations.

1tph from Manchester, formed of 2 units. Same calling points at GWR from Newport. 1tp2h split at Swansea, half going all stns to Carmarthen and half going semi fast to Carmarthen then all stns to Pembroke. In the other 1tp2h service, split at Whitland after going semi fast from Swansea. Half goes to Pembroke all stns and half goes to Milford Haven all stns.

I like the idea of 1tph on the Pembroke line as staycations (hopefully) boom.

Line speed improvements / electrification.

No electrification. There’s not enough of a long term firm future for the lines unfortunately in my view. Services not frequent enough to warrant it as well. Cheap (as possible) line speed improvements are idea for reliability.

Better marketing of services / competitive fares.

Overall this railway needs better marketing and advertising. Fares need to drop to attract the passenger as well.

Holiday market opportunities – Tenby, ferry connections to Ireland, through trains from London and elsewhere.

See further above about a staycation boom

Opportunities arising from the forthcoming new trains.

Perhaps the inclusion of First Class on some 197s will attract some.

 

[fishwomp]

I thought I’d start a thread to look at the future of the rail routes running west from Swansea to Llanelli, Carmarthen, Pembroke Dock, Milford Haven and Fishguard Harbour. The pandemic has seen a sharp fall in passenger numbers as seen elsewhere, with some signs of recovery but a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic levels. Freight traffic these days consists of oil traffic from Robeston to Theale and Westerleigh, plus traffic to/from Trostre Works.

So, the question is: what ideas are there to regenerate railways in this area in order to grow traffic and ensure their long-term survival? Some possible points for discussion could be:-

Timetable improvements.

The current COVID timetable on the P&T is terrible:
- the last service to Pembroke Dock arrives there at 19:19. I understand demand is presently low - but in 2019 the late night service (~10pm) on Fridays and Saturdays was very busy as the only way of getting to the nightlife! I hope it'll return.
- very few through Pembroke Dock services to Swansea - most terminate at Carmarthen

Pre-COVID - the Tenby-London connections had been severed to add an extra 45+ minutes to the journey time as you have to wait for the next one... Since the start of time, the services had arrived with about 5-10 minutes spare for the next London departure.. which meant a reasonable journey time to London! This was broken in 2019.

Through services from the area to east of Swansea destinations.

I don't think people in Tenby want to get to a small stop east of Swansea slowly, they want to travel east fast once they reach Swansea.

New station sites

Please no - improve the journey time.

Potential for more commuters to Swansea and the main towns.

Given the speed of the roads.. the railway needs to improve its performance to make this have a chance. Remove the stop-toot-and-go level crossings (replace with slower toot-but-not-stop.. or lights) and you knock 3 minutes of journey time at the Pembroke end..

Line speed improvements / electrification.

No electrification - a hybrid battery might contribute nicely to the acceleration out of Tenby and Kilgetty, or out of Milford Haven, or Fishguard! eg. the diesel engine gets the extra oomph of the battery.

Better marketing of services / competitive fares.

Yep.

Holiday market opportunities – Tenby, ferry connections to Ireland, through trains from London and elsewhere.

Restore the Saturday "HST" (OK, we'll have to have an Hitachi)..
Add Pembroke Dock ferry to the Sail-Rail fares!

New or reopened routes.

Not enough population to do anything sensible I'm afraid..

Potential for freight.

The only demand I can see could be for intermodal/trailers at Fishguard and Pembroke docks - there is very little industry in the area. There's plenty of trucks from/to Ireland.. the only problem would be the very small and tight tunnel at Narberth on the P&T, not sure about Spittal on the Fishguard line - but I'd bet there's a lot more work needed. You'd struggle to see gauge clearance pay off..

Oil is doing OK - not sure for how many more years though - but it's great to see 60s on the route, on average 1 a day..

Maybe an opportunity to be creative here with speculative ideas, but realistically how can we develop these routes for the future? Or maybe their future is limited by geography, economy and competing travel modes? What do members think?

I think that there is scope for increased efficiency - through minor improvements to the track. I'm concerned the lines are in a 'do-nothing' kind of mode.. and currently look to be regressing badly due to Covid.

BTW There was a thread on potential improvements to the Pembroke route a few months ago.

 

[Bald Rick]

The trouble with the Pembroke line is that traffic is highly seasonal, (and weekend-al), and that having an hourly service that comes from any distance beyond Carmarthen would make it highly unreliable.

I do agree it deserves a better service - particularly on summer Saturdays - but even then it will only catch a fraction of the bucket and spade brigade. If you are going to that part of the world you need motorised transport to get to the good beaches / see the sights etc.

 

[Caaardiff]

There are missed opportunities in South West Wales, namely Pembroke Dock line and quick access to Cardiff and direct access to Cardiff Airport.
With so many small stops its difficult to find a good balance to provide a reliable yet workable service to serve all small stations between Carmarthen and Cardiff whilst also achieving a fast service.
I've always been surprised how Milford Haven is the favoured 2 hourly direct destination for Manchester services and not Pembroke Dock, especially in Summer.
The introduction of loco services Swansea-Manchester will mean a change is needed to provide services West of Swansea. Currently the hourly Manchester services are split between terminating Milford Haven or Carmarthen. So I would expect when the locos start that the milford Haven services will continue and there will be a need for an hourly Swansea- West to connect with the loco to retain the hourly Carmarthen services. Hopefully these will be extended to Pembroke Dock and Fishguard.

There also needs to be some joined up thinking, especially for tourists, aside from Tenby and Pembroke itself, how accessible are the other stations to relevant towns or holidays parks/tourist hot spots. If not that great then we'll advertised and interlining bus services are needed.

I can see more Cardiff - Carmarthen or further West services being required as the loco will not be calling at swanline stations and bridgend-Cardiff intermediate stations. Is a 2 hourly service for Swanline stations really progression?

My own personal suggestion would be to have a Cardiff - Pembroke Dock or Fishguard 2 hourly service that goes via the VOG, running fast to Barry & calling at Rhoose for the Airport, then swanline stations to Swansea, all stops to Pembroke Dock or Fishguard. It won't be the faster service by any stretch but will provide an alternative serving more stations, including a direct link to the Airport from the West. It will also support peak demand between Cardiff and Barry.
Manchester - Milford services call at Swanline and intermediate stations West of Swansea as well, as they currently do, providing an hourly service on intermediate stations.

Tied in with the loco people have the option to get a faster service between Cardiff and Swansea with an additional 2 hourly Cardiff-West Wales train following shortly behind. Similarly if coming from the West and connecting a Swansea, the option to change onto the loco for the faster service heading east, or stay on the stopper to Cardiff.

 

[tbtc]

It's a tricky one.

First of all the debate between "local" and "long distance" - obviously it keeps cropping up on a number of lines but seems particularly important here, given the leisure market etc. Ordinarily I'd suggest something like...

• cut everything at Swansea
• provide a "frequent" service west of Swansea, say...
• hourly to Milford Haven
• hourly to Pembroke Dock
• a third hourly path for a Llanelli service that covered the Gowerton stops as well as including the Heart of Wales journeys (maybe a handful more services as far as, say, Llangennech) and the occasional Fishguard service

That way you'd have a good service for local journeys, simple clock face timetables, more reliability (rather than your teatime train home from Swansea being delayed because it never had a chance to recover from a lunchtime disruption at Stockport Viaduct)... but you'd lose that lucrative long distance trade - and the Pembrokeshire stations have had long distance services as long as I can remember (albeit it was to New Street and Waterloo rather than Piccadilly with the occasional Paddington). So how much "short distance reliability" to you sacrifice for "long distance £££"?

There's then the problem of Tenby. Especially if you're tying to run a fairly clock face service to both Milford Haven and Pembroke. Whitland - Milford Haven - Whitland is roughly an hour and a half (with no break) whilst Whitland - Pembroke - Whitland is more like two and a half hours. But that's not the real problem, Tenby is. Tenby is half an hour from Pembroke Dock, and the only passing place (west of Whitland) so an hourly service on the Pembroke line would only work if you only had it as far as Tenby, with a bi-hourly service west of Tenby.

To my (outsiders) eyes, Pembroke looks like at least as big a market as Milford Haven but the single track with only one passing place makes it hard to provide a good/ simple service there.

So do you go for a half hourly service from Swansea to Whitland with an "every two and a half hours" service to Pembroke Dock (i.e. one unit in steam), which then leaves a lopsided service to Milford Haven? But then it takes an hour from Clabertson Road to Milford Haven and back, so that doesn't leave much scope for a layover, especially the kind of layover required if your train has come from Manchester/ Birmingham/ London... a ninety minute service to Milford Haven and a "one hundred and fifty" minute service to Pembroke? Those aren't compatible.

Or we just accept that the passenger numbers don't justify huge infrastructure improvements and that the current infrastructure doesn't permit a simple/ regular service to all destinations, so we are pretty much stuck with the fairly random muddle of services west of Swansea, especially as you can't do much about the Heart Of Wales since it's tied to fixed times at passing places... I really can't see a way of tidying things up, sorry.

 

[MotCO]

Mention was made in another thread that class 800s may find it difficult to negotiate Narberth tunnel; has that now been scotched? In which case, could the London to Pembroke Dock service be reinstated for summer Saturdays using class 800s?

I also recall that the M4 relief road was not approved; could the railways be made more attractive to help reduce the congestion on the M4? For example, if the congestion is caused by commuters, could rush hour trains, attractively priced, provide an answer?

 

[Meerkat]

A look at a map and population figures suggests that anything West of Camarthen is in social service territory. The whole of Pembrokeshire has a population of only 125,000, so sending anything longer distance west of Camarthen seems very wasteful. I would say West of Swansea, but Swansea station is in the middle of the City and Camarthen looks a decent railhead being right near the main roads (which look from a map to be direct and fast enough that the winding branches are never going to compete)
Does anyone go on holiday by train any more?
Basically I think I am suggesting running a cheap operation west out of Camarthen, and looking hard for targeted upgrades that can increase speed (mainly with the aim of hitting those clock face possibilities). Maybe run a handful of peak services into Swansea if it can align with swapping the stock over.

 

[Caaardiff]

Longer term don't forget the suggest Swansea metro, seeing new stations on the district line. Somehow that will likely tie in with West wales services for any operation to make sense.

 

[Bald Rick]

There also needs to be some joined up thinking, especially for tourists, aside from Tenby and Pembroke itself, how accessible are the other stations to relevant towns or holidays parks/tourist hot spots. If not that great then we'll advertised and interlining bus services are needed.

Only Penally is anywhere close to any quantity of holiday accommodation. I’ve used the station, on holiday, on a summer Saturday, and I was the only passenger using the station. The others on the branch are just too far for a holidaymaker to walk to accommodation.

Tenby is half an hour from Pembroke Dock, and the only passing place (west of Whitland) so an hourly service on the Pembroke line would only work if you only had it as far as Tenby, with a bi-hourly service west of Tenby.

Whitland to Pembroke and back is doable in 2 hours, and indeed the service did operate like that for years. It’s a little tight, but it does work. An hourly service passing at Tenby is similarly possible (just), but for a bit more comfort in the timetable better performing units, and / or closing / putting barriers on the 3 open crossings would help.

I also recall that the M4 relief road was not approved; could the railways be made more attractive to help reduce the congestion on the M4? For example, if the congestion is caused by commuters, could rush hour trains, attractively priced, provide an answer?

This is partly what TfW are trying with their rail investment plan. Unfortunately I expect it will be doomed to failure, as there won’t be that many people on the M4 who could realistically swap to the train.

 

[Meerkat]

The more I look at the roads vs twisty railways and hear how slow the trains are the more its hard to ignore the elephant in the room that is saying to stop at Camarthen and run decent buses from there!
Bus might even be able to go through the middle of all the bigger places (where people want to go) and still be quicker, and also use the bridge to do round trips via Pembroke and Milford Haven offering much better connectivity across Pembrokeshire.

 

[BrianW]

Hard not to view anything 'expansive' as unlikely under the current Chancellor of the Exchequer or Welsh government dependent on his 'largess' with 'taxpayers' money' aka Barnett Formula/ support grant. Despite hopes some of us may have had of a great recovery programme of works like Roosevelt's New Deal, already austerity cuts are happening and railways are one of the top three 'problems' with NHS, Health Care and Covid consequentials to be paid for. So anything must produce good, certain, Return on Investment. SW Wales heading for more 2nd or 3rd Homes for homeworking 'Stockbroker belt', unaffordable to locals; hard to see beaches paying the bills or 'industry' in Swansea- again 'lucky' to hold onto any steel in S Wales. Some kind of Disney SW Wales World/ St David Big Dipper Experience with a big Section 106 something like Eden Project linked to Sustainable Transport???
Best of luck. Holding on to what you have may be a good result. Hoping I'm wrong.

 

[Bald Rick]

Some kind of Disney SW Wales World/ St David Big Dipper Experience with a big Section 106 something like Eden Project linked to Sustainable Transport???

Building somewhere like that with sustainable transport means building close to where people live.

 

[fishwomp]

[..] SW Wales heading for more 2nd or 3rd Homes for homeworking 'Stockbroker belt', unaffordable to locals; hard to see beaches paying the bills or 'industry' in Swansea- again 'lucky' to hold onto any steel in S Wales. Some kind of Disney SW Wales World/ St David Big Dipper Experience with a big Section 106 something like Eden Project linked to Sustainable Transport???
Best of luck. Holding on to what you have may be a good result. Hoping I'm wrong.

If SW Wales gets more homeworking stockbroker belt, these _are_ the locals. Those new locals spend money - serious service industry money. Plumbers, gardeners, mechanics, restaurants .. need I go on? They'd also be all year round. Add to that these people would soon tire of driving to London or Cardiff for their two/three day office stint - hello extra rail business, which then rubs off onto extra provision for the existing locals. Sounds to me like a Good Thing!

 

[Meerkat]

If SW Wales gets more homeworking stockbroker belt, these _are_ the locals. Those new locals spend money - serious service industry money. Plumbers, gardeners, mechanics, restaurants .. need I go on? They'd also be all year round. Add to that these people would soon tire of driving to London or Cardiff for their two/three day office stint - hello extra rail business, which then rubs off onto extra provision for the existing locals. Sounds to me like a Good Thing!

They price locals out the housing and they will need to drive to a station so are going to go to a decent railhead, not trundle around Pembrokeshire at 30mph. Maybe even Port Talbot and get straight on a London train

 

[fishwomp]

They price locals out the housing and they will need to drive to a station so are going to go to a decent railhead, not trundle around Pembrokeshire at 30mph. Maybe even Port Talbot and get straight on a London train

Pembrokeshire to Port Talbot is painful by car too.. but yes it is quicker. There are various stretches of the P&T where cycling is faster between two stations. Obviously the larger Milford Haven to Pembroke Dock would be no contest - walking is 2h25 according to Google, but the train has one doing it in 1h54 - and all others > 3h.. but then this is hardly a sensible rail option, any more than using the train from St Pancras to Kings Cross!

I'll avoid the house price conversation - this isn't the right place for heading down that route.

 

[Bald Rick]

Maybe even Port Talbot and get straight on a London train

That was my plan when I looked into the possibility a few years ago. It’s not much more than an hour from Tenby to Port Talbot Parkway by car at 5am.

 

[PHILIPE]

Mention was made in another thread that class 800s may find it difficult to negotiate Narberth tunnel; has that now been scotched? In which case, could the London to Pembroke Dock service be reinstated for summer Saturdays using class 800s?

I also recall that the M4 relief road was not approved; could the railways be made more attractive to help reduce the congestion on the M4? For example, if the congestion is caused by commuters, could rush hour trains, attractively priced, provide an answer?

800s worked to Pembroke Dock on Summer Saturdays last year but not this year due to impact of COVID.

 

[adrock1976]

For west of Carmarthen, the only station reopening I would definitely support would be St Clears Crossing (Station Road), as that is very close to a major road junction with four different directions. Plus I believe the local residents would also like it reopened as well.

To a lesser extent, I may support the reopening of the former Templeton Platform [sic] station on the Pembroke branch with a passing loop, but only if the former passing loop at Narberth cannot be reinstated due to the very sharp curve (looking at Google Maps, even resiting the station at the top end of Station Approach would still leave it on the curve). The former site of Templeton Platform is a straight section of track, and would enable a 60 minute frequency between east of Whitland and Tenby (if every 60 minutes to Pembroke Dock, then the passing loop at Manorbier also needs reinstating).

In another thread, I recently mentioned that I would be supportive of the following service pattern:

1tph Cardiff - Carmarthen via Swansea District, calling Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Morriston Neath Road (for M4 Junction 45), Tircoed for Penllergaer (and M4 Junction 47), Llangennech, Bynea, Llanelli, and Carmarthen.

1tp2h Cardiff - Ammanford via Swansea District, calling Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Morriston Neath Road (for M4 Junction 45), Tircoed for Penllergaer (and M4 Junction 47), Pontarddullais, Pantyffynon, and Ammanford

1tp2h Cardiff - Fishguard Harbour via Swansea District, calling Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Morriston Neath Road (for M4 Junction 45), Tircoed for Penllergaer (and M4 Junction 47), Llanelli, Whitland, Clarbeston Road, Fishguard & Goodwick, and Fishguard Harbour

1tph Swansea - Milford Haven via Carmarthen, calling all stations (including reopened St Clears)

1tph Swansea - Tenby (with 2 hourly extensions to Pembroke Dock) via Carmarthen, calling all stations (including reopened St Clears and possibly reopened Templeton Platform)

2tph Cardiff - Swansea, calling Bridgend, then all stations (including a reopened Landore Station Road)

1tp2h Swansea - Llandovery and Shrewsbury via Llanelli, running non stop between Swansea and Llanelli.

1tph London Paddington - Swansea traditional InterCity, with present calling pattern

1tph London Paddington - Cardiff Central traditional InterCity, with present calling pattern and some extensions to Pembroke Dock and Carmarthen via either Swansea District or Landore Loop (maybe also Fishguard Harbour to connect with the ferries, as that is the shortest route to the south of Ireland from London)

1tph Manchester - Swansea via Marches, calling Stockport?, Wilmslow, Crewe, Shrewsbury, Hereford, Abergavenny, Newport (Gwent), Cardiff central, Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Neath, and Swansea (the Cardiff - Chester/Liverpool via Halton Curve can call at the other stations every 60 minutes along the Marches).

 

[ChiefPlanner]

St Clears of course , could be subtitled "for Laugharne" - a small place but a bit of a literary pilgrimage spot. Ideal for a connecting road shuttle.

By Ammanford - one presumes "Ammanford Central" , which would feed nicely into the Amman Valley catchment area.

 

[gallafent]

Tenby is half an hour from Pembroke Dock, and the only passing place (west of Whitland) so an hourly service on the Pembroke line would only work if you only had it as far as Tenby, with a bi-hourly service west of Tenby.

I think there's space at Manorbier to reinstate the passing place there, which might work to solve that problem.

As an aside, I noticed the station house there was for sale there, was wondering if anyone here had bought it or would be interested in doing so!

 

[Bald Rick]

For west of Carmarthen, the only station reopening I would definitely support would be St Clears Crossing (Station Road), as that is very close to a major road junction with four different directions

St Clears is happening, AIUI. Although it’s the best part of a mile from that road junction.

The former site of Templeton Platform is a straight section of track, and would enable a 60 minute frequency between east of Whitland and Tenby (if every 60 minutes to Pembroke Dock, then the passing loop at Manorbier also needs reinstating).

As explained upthread, you can have an hourly frequency to Pembroke Dock just by using the loop at Tenby.

St Clears of course , could be subtitled "for Laugharne" - a small place but a bit of a literary pilgrimage spot.

I did wonder when you might mention that!

 

[30907]

I did wonder when you might mention that!

Llareggub! Beat me to it

 

[irish_rail]

Whilst passenger numbers wouldn't be huge id love a couple of trains a day that link Bristol with Fishguard that connect to and from the Irish boats.

 

[adrock1976]

St Clears is happening, AIUI. Although it’s the best part of a mile from that road junction.





As explained upthread, you can have an hourly frequency to Pembroke Dock just by using the loop at Tenby.




I did wonder when you might mention that!

Many thanks for confirming St Clears reopening.

Regarding Whitland - Tenby running hourly just using the loop at Tenby, would the timetable be robust enough? I have had a quick eyeball at the RTT website (see https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G74628/2021-07-05/detailed and https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G75548/2021-07-05/detailed) with it broadly showing a run time of 28 minutes Whitland - Tenby and another 28 minutes Tenby - Pembroke Dock.

 

[Western 52]

Many thanks for confirming St Clears reopening.

Regarding Whitland - Tenby running hourly just using the loop at Tenby, would the timetable be robust enough? I have had a quick eyeball at the RTT website (see https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G74628/2021-07-05/detailed and https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G75548/2021-07-05/detailed) with it broadly showing a run time of 28 minutes Whitland - Tenby and another 28 minutes Tenby - Pembroke Dock.

I guess there's scope to reduce running times on the Pembroke line by line speed improvements and upgrading crossings, but could the cost be justified, given the low passenger numbers most of the year? The line was not built for high speeds of course.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

St Clears is happening, AIUI. Although it’s the best part of a mile from that road junction.





As explained upthread, you can have an hourly frequency to Pembroke Dock just by using the loop at Tenby.




I did wonder when you might mention that!

As a published author on an article on Dylan Thomas and the the railways , not to mention getting a 153 named after him , having bumped into his daughter ,what do you expect ....?

 

[fishwomp]

Many thanks for confirming St Clears reopening.

Regarding Whitland - Tenby running hourly just using the loop at Tenby, would the timetable be robust enough? I have had a quick eyeball at the RTT website (see https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G74628/2021-07-05/detailed and https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G75548/2021-07-05/detailed) with it broadly showing a run time of 28 minutes Whitland - Tenby and another 28 minutes Tenby - Pembroke Dock.

There are multiple opportunities to reduce the journey time that would add up to sufficient time.
1. the signalling - surely ERTMS would render the 3-4 minutes that the driver spends getting and returning tokens unnecessary.
2. three stop-and-blow level crossings between Manorbier and Pembroke Dock
3. plunger operated Manorbier crossing (I think that's still the case)

Could expect in 10 years that (1) will happen; (2) needs someone to care about applying for a change - it's a pointless system... ; (3) needs money.

 

[30907]

There are multiple opportunities to reduce the journey time that would add up to sufficient time.
1. the signalling - surely ERTMS would render the 3-4 minutes that the driver spends getting and returning tokens unnecessary.
2. three stop-and-blow level crossings between Manorbier and Pembroke Dock
3. plunger operated Manorbier crossing (I think that's still the case)

Could expect in 10 years that (1) will happen; (2) needs someone to care about applying for a change - it's a pointless system... ; (3) needs money.

Crossing moves seem to be booked in 3 minutes, could save max 2 but probably 1.
Running alternate trains "fast" might ease matters by a couple of minutes.
Faster-accelerating units might help?
However, I am wary of running a timetable that demands very high punctuality over a long-ish distance such as Swansea-Pembroke.

On the overall question, I wonder if resources would permit an all-day direct Paddington-Carmarthen, making that the interchange point for West Wales?
Bimode obviously for now, and using 5-cars splitting at Cardiff or Swansea.

Hourly W of Swansea would require 2 units, from Cardiff 3 (direct via whichever route was better). I suspect the latter would be more popular, but whether it would be worth it...???

 

[adrock1976]

Crossing moves seem to be booked in 3 minutes, could save max 2 but probably 1.
1) Running alternate trains "fast" might ease matters by a couple of minutes.
Faster-accelerating units might help?
2) However, I am wary of running a timetable that demands very high punctuality over a long-ish distance such as Swansea-Pembroke.

On the overall question, I wonder if resources would permit an all-day direct Paddington-Carmarthen, making that the interchange point for West Wales?
3) Bimode obviously for now, and using 5-cars splitting at Cardiff or Swansea.

Hourly W of Swansea would require 2 units, from Cardiff 3 (direct via whichever route was better). I suspect the latter would be more popular, but whether it would be worth it...???

Comments on points above:

1) Being as only Tenby, Manorbier, and Pembroke are the intermediate stations that are normal stops with the rest being request stops, would it only actually reduce the run time by 1 minute for every 2 consecutive request stop stations?

2) This is a major concern of mine especially with anything that involves lengthy single track sections.

3) If the signalling system allows, an option could be for the existing London - Swansea to operate as 2x5 coupling/uncoupling at Port Talbot Parkway (the station is an island platform and has Relief Lines as the outer tracks (similar to London Underground's Metropolitan Line between Finchley Road and Wembley Park) so as not to block anything else behind).