Future Job Cuts?

[Islineclear3_1]

It could be something that BA have been wishing to do for some time and they see the present situation as an "opportunity", for example by reducing the number of staff on “legacy” contracts that have higher salaries and better terms. Then when/if the situation improves, they can recruit new staff on lower salaries and worse conditions.

The cost of redundancies for longer-serving staff would be enormous but I'm assuming BA have done their sums and see them as cost benefit.

Oh and the unions are involved in negotiating fair and just deals

 

[jkkne]

The cost of redundancies for longer-serving staff would be enormous but I'm assuming BA have done their sums and see them as cost benefit.

BA have had lots of cuts over the years so perhaps the more costly redundancies are behind them?

 

[pr6]

Something of note in Modern Railways this month is that, to paraphrase, "TOCs have realised that you can operate a punctual service when you don't jam the paths all full".

Time for a shift in approach? Fewer, longer trains? That does mean potentially fewer drivers and guards.

Looking the other way, if it is decided that the Government wants a job creation scheme, one thing they could do is add OBSs on all presently DOO trains.

Could be a big problem with longer trains here up north, frequency giving more options with passengers thinning out etc would work better IMO. Think delay attribution and penalties for late running may be waived for a while until larger numbers are travelling.

 

[yorkie]

Let's try to stay on topic please.

There is a separate thread for aviation at Coronavirus: Future of airlines and airports

 

[matt_world2004]

Was this career in the current British rail industry? Having been a Service Group Manager, Resources Manager, Profit Centre Manager, etc. (admittedly back in BR days) I haven't come across the term.

I can't speak for British rail but I visited kelvden hatch nuclear bunker a few years ago and there was a "transport " desk for a officer managing transport , whatever that meant but there was also a desk for a member of London transport to sit at , so I assume there was a plan in London to continue running some sort of tube and bus service after a nuclear war.

 

[Carlisle]

I can't speak for other TOCs but even with a fall in demand the company I work for is planning to run a full service post lockdown as they estimate that trains will need to be run at no more than 20% seated capacity to enable social distancing .

That sounds practically & economically unworkable for anything other than in the very short term

 

[matt_world2004]

That sounds practically & economically unworkable for anything other than in the very short term

Depends on weather that is something that needs to continue in the long term . If it is I suspect the fundamental funding model of the rail industry would need to change with hefty fare subsidies needed for some time

 

[Class83]

The cost of redundancies for longer-serving staff would be enormous but I'm assuming BA have done their sums and see them as cost benefit.

Oh and the unions are involved in negotiating fair and just deals

BA are rumoured to be offering legal minimums, possibly a negotiating position. If a TOC goes bust is there a government mandated minimum or how are contracts defined?

Realistically, if revenue declines, costs will have to be matched. Fewer, longer trains are probably cheaper. But in London lengths are often already maxed out. Passengers may become obsessed with cleanliness, so catering staff and guards, could do continuous cleaning rather than food/revenue during the journey. Leaving revenue to auto barriers. I'm assuming face masks will be compulsory on public transport until a vaccine is developed and deployed.

 

[Carlisle]

I cannot see catering returning on many routes,

I’d be surprised if on train catering isn’t relatively easy to resume with minor modifications once government permits cafes & restaurants to reopen, although whether there’s still the passenger numbers to make it viable longer term is another matter entirely

 

[matt_world2004]

I think it's highly likely that night tube will not return before the mayoral elections or may even not return until after the the opening of the crossrail core. Especially as its hemmoraging money and the staff are going to be used to ensure an earlier start to services to take account of the shifting peak.

 

[bramling]

I think it's highly likely that night tube will not return before the mayoral elections or may even not return until after the the opening of the crossrail core. Especially as its hemmoraging money and the staff are going to be used to ensure an earlier start to services to take account of the shifting peak.

It would be a good thing to scrap altogether, and offer the crews the option of going full-time. This would help catch up the backlog of training which is starting to build up. Night Tube should never really have happened in the first place, IMO.

 

[jkkne]

I’d be surprised if on train catering isn’t relatively easy to resume with minor modifications once government permits cafes & restaurants to reopen, although whether there’s still the passenger numbers to make it viable longer term is another matter entirely

A prepared 'pack lunch' of sorts would probably keep costs down

 

[Solent&Wessex]

BA are rumoured to be offering legal minimums, possibly a negotiating position. If a TOC goes bust is there a government mandated minimum or how are contracts defined?

Realistically, if revenue declines, costs will have to be matched. Fewer, longer trains are probably cheaper. But in London lengths are often already maxed out. Passengers may become obsessed with cleanliness, so catering staff and guards, could do continuous cleaning rather than food/revenue during the journey. Leaving revenue to auto barriers. I'm assuming face masks will be compulsory on public transport until a vaccine is developed and deployed.

There is a government mandated minimum redundancy pay and notice periods - this is detailed here : https://www.gov.uk/redundancy-your-rights/redundancy-pay
There is even a handy calculator to work out what you would get.

However, there is nothing stopping employment contracts offering more than that, and that would vary between different employers and possibly between different jobs within the same employer, especially depending on whether it was a unionised grade subject to collective bargaining or not.

 

[HH]

Was this career in the current British rail industry? Having been a Service Group Manager, Resources Manager, Profit Centre Manager, etc. (admittedly back in BR days) I haven't come across the term.

There are such teams, but they are made up from existing (mostly senior) staff and they meet very infrequently and sometimes do simulations of catastrophic events. I very much doubt that they will have simulated anything like covid-19.

 

[martin2345uk]

I'm furloughed, haven't driven a single train since I qualified 7 weeks ago... not gonna lie, I am slightly concerned for my job once all this is over

 

[HH]

I can't see much of a cut in railway staffing. The railway is heavily understaffed and relies on overtime. This is a great opportunity to stop that nonsense if services are reduced for whatever reason.

It is not heavily understaffed. Apart from a vacancy gap (which affects most industries), it is understaffed in some roles in some places (heavily in a small number of TOCs/roles, usually deliberately, most likely to avoid directly going through an official process with the unions). In some cases it is slightly understaffed so that staff have opportunities for overtime (which some wish for). Basically, there are very few roles that TOCs would normally want to fill beyond a small vacancy gap. I agree that there are some that they should fill, as there are instances of over-reliance on overtime, but we're not talking of a vast number.

Given that covid-19 measures are expected to last for some considerable time and I expect demand to significantly fall anyway, the franchises are likely to either remain in something like the current arrangement or move to an effective management contract. In other words, it will be the government (DfT) that call the shots, not TOCs. They could use this period of time as a way to sort out numerous problems on the railway, but will they? They will also have to make a decision about what services they want to run, what staff that will require and how much they are willing to subsidise the railway - because it's going to be an order of magnitude larger than it has been, whatever they decide. A sensible approach would be to retain staff for the longer term, but even that doesn't guarantee that as many staff will be required in future as employed at present. I'd be particularly worried if I worked in an HQ right now.

 

[Qwerty133]

I’d be surprised if on train catering isn’t relatively easy to resume with minor modifications once government permits cafes & restaurants to reopen, although whether there’s still the passenger numbers to make it viable longer term is another matter entirely

I don't doubt that they could resume catering if they wanted to, but I get the impression that many TOCs have been looking for an excuse to get rid of it for some time and this will allow them to do sol

 

[js1000]

I reckon the franchises will have to be nationalised from September. This isn't so much of a problem as it has been speculated that the Williams Review will change TOCs to a concession rather than a franchise model. The real problem is the long term reduction in passenger numbers. 20% seem about right. The days of exponential growth on UK railways have ended

 

[bramling]

I'm furloughed, haven't driven a single train since I qualified 7 weeks ago... not gonna lie, I am slightly concerned for my job once all this is over

I really don’t think train drivers need to worry too much. The fact that you’re qualified means there’s already been a massive investment in you, and it’s extremely unlikely that would be allowed to go to waste.

Indeed there’s likely to be issues with training going forward, so a qualified driver ready to go is a golden asset I’d say. We don’t know what’s going to happen with the shielded people in the medium term - there’s a likelihood some will never return, certainly where I am there have already been two retirements brought forward and a few others are considering doing the same.

One way or other I hope it all works out for you.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Just a few random thoughts on previous scenarios.

The late 1980's , certainly in London and South East had a nasty fall in patronage (and indeed from property revenue in the days when there was a BR Property Board - which put a good deal of one way income + rental income into the coffers) , with the result that both "city" commuting fell by around 30% up to about 1992 /3 /4 , which resulted in a scrapping programme of older slam door stock and a "sweat the assets" policy on those that survived. Moving stock around in BR days was pretty simple without leasing arrangements etc , as long as the depots could handle the work. Key mixed traffic depots like Stratford were hugely reduced in size.

A broadly 5% cut in services was ordered - which was often done by knocking out first and late evening trains , and slashing Sunday services , - hard to imagine now that Thameslink North was reduced to basically 1 tph on Sunday mornings.

Optional leisure traffic fell off a cliff , despite every effort to nurture it. Station staffing was cut right back in all areas. Investment slowed right down bar critical areas / safety related matters post Clapham in particular.

Overall staff numbers were reduced all over - Area Managers took over increasing geographical areas for example from previous patterns. (such that the AM Waterloo found his terrain now stretched to Dorking ! , Swansea had about a third of Wales. The BRB issued at least twice , special "severance packages" to encourage people to leave at their own volition , rather than force severance through reorganisations. Many experienced managers took the hint and left at the age of around 50 or so , when they could. Challenging times

The Speedlink Network was effectively curtailed , remaining bulk (say non coal) block trains were examined and if there were resource issues, or an inability to increase revenue from the customer - were squeezed out.

So what were the causes of this substantial reduction in staff across all functions ? A mixture of :-

(a) Serious fall in Central London Employment (and elsewhere)
(b) Less high value Inter-City traffic due to general recessions / less optional traffics
(c) Less L+SE leisure traffic in general (though some would say that lurking IRA activities played a part in that following a number of severe incidents in Docklands , and the City , Harrods , Ideal Home + smaller ones in many other areas.
(d) The results of de-industrialisation , run down of the steel and coal industries etc.......
(e) Reducing cash support for regional passenger services - in both urban , and especially rural areas. Some line closures , but general thinning out.

So , I hope that this (depressing) portrayal of the past has not ruined your Friday.

We are in uncharted waters to use a common term.

My guess is that the awareness and contractual protection of the social passenger railway , the carbon agenda etc will hopefully spare us from the worse.

I can see a marked reluctance to go for "growth" in the short term. At least on the existing operational railway. Be interesting to see how much of the December timetable gets implemented. It will take time to"bounce back" 9/11 knocked the airline business back for about 2 years , Hatfield dented figures for a year or so. These tragedies materially different to a bottoming World economy that we have at the present. After lockdown , despite a yearning to get out and about , significant percentages of optional passengers will be cash strapped due to employment / debt issues. Previously discussed commuting flows may well be reduced due to "WF Home + technology"

 

[bramling]

Just a few random thoughts on previous scenarios.

The late 1980's , certainly in London and South East had a nasty fall in patronage (and indeed from property revenue in the days when there was a BR Property Board - which put a good deal of one way income + rental income into the coffers) , with the result that both "city" commuting fell by around 30% up to about 1992 /3 /4 , which resulted in a scrapping programme of older slam door stock and a "sweat the assets" policy on those that survived. Moving stock around in BR days was pretty simple without leasing arrangements etc , as long as the depots could handle the work. Key mixed traffic depots like Stratford were hugely reduced in size.

A broadly 5% cut in services was ordered - which was often done by knocking out first and late evening trains , and slashing Sunday services , - hard to imagine now that Thameslink North was reduced to basically 1 tph on Sunday mornings.

Optional leisure traffic fell off a cliff , despite every effort to nurture it. Station staffing was cut right back in all areas. Investment slowed right down bar critical areas / safety related matters post Clapham in particular.

Overall staff numbers were reduced all over - Area Managers took over increasing geographical areas for example from previous patterns. (such that the AM Waterloo found his terrain now stretched to Dorking ! , Swansea had about a third of Wales. The BRB issued at least twice , special "severance packages" to encourage people to leave at their own volition , rather than force severance through reorganisations. Many experienced managers took the hint and left at the age of around 50 or so , when they could. Challenging times

The Speedlink Network was effectively curtailed , remaining bulk (say non coal) block trains were examined and if there were resource issues, or an inability to increase revenue from the customer - were squeezed out.

So what were the causes of this substantial reduction in staff across all functions ? A mixture of :-

(a) Serious fall in Central London Employment (and elsewhere)
(b) Less high value Inter-City traffic due to general recessions / less optional traffics
(c) Less L+SE leisure traffic in general (though some would say that lurking IRA activities played a part in that following a number of severe incidents in Docklands , and the City , Harrods , Ideal Home + smaller ones in many other areas.
(d) The results of de-industrialisation , run down of the steel and coal industries etc.......
(e) Reducing cash support for regional passenger services - in both urban , and especially rural areas. Some line closures , but general thinning out.

So , I hope that this (depressing) portrayal of the past has not ruined your Friday.

We are in uncharted waters to use a common term.

My guess is that the awareness and contractual protection of the social passenger railway , the carbon agenda etc will hopefully spare us from the worse.

I can see a marked reluctance to go for "growth" in the short term. At least on the existing operational railway. Be interesting to see how much of the December timetable gets implemented. It will take time to"bounce back" 9/11 knocked the airline business back for about 2 years , Hatfield dented figures for a year or so. These tragedies materially different to a bottoming World economy that we have at the present. After lockdown , despite a yearning to get out and about , significant percentages of optional passengers will be cash strapped due to employment / debt issues. Previously discussed commuting flows may well be reduced due to "WF Home + technology"

Very interesting post, thanks for taking the time to write it.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Very interesting post, thanks for taking the time to write it.

Thank you sincerely - I did hesitate before hitting "send"

In context , my start in 1979 were grim times - we had a million unemployed n 1976 when I went to University - people said not to worry .- it was over 3 million on graduation. I was blessed to get a BR trainee job in 1979. My operational stint in South Wales was "interesting" - a railway in a bad way , little coal / steel - a Valleys suburban service stripped down to bare essentials , luckily the London bound HST's were a positive thing. Traipsing around the Division with real , dedicated junior managers , we visited certain lines that had genuinely not seen a revenue earning freight train for days. One Sunday evening I had a free ride on a Penarth bound DMU , so I went to pay the conductor guard who said "don't bother , I haven't got a ticket machine" , I mentioned this to a manager who went ballistic ,as to him , it was lost revenue to the railway.

It was (to quote Dickens) - "the best of times (for learning) , the worst of times (for business)....

Fast forward to the revitalisation of confidence and business , in the Parker and Reid eras. Suddenly a real "zing" came into all areas - sensible and pretty humane cost control , but even better a huge drive to growing business which was deeply satisfying and massively positive. The joy of securing extra business was a real boost - one day I secured 3 extra workings for Swindon - Longbridge in the morning (which put about 10 extra jobs into 2 train crew depots - whose comment was "thanks - looking forward to this , we won't let you down" , and in the PM went to see Ford and secured more volume into / out of Dagenham. Things like that were a real boost all round.

A very senior manager , who's friendship I value highly , told me one day , in his career , he had managed the worst days of the 1970's , several other recessions and depressions , - but said it was manageable. A "can do" attitude of the highest order.

Better times will come around - the railway and it's staff are a huge asset.

 

[scotrail158713]

The real problem is the long term reduction in passenger numbers. 20% seem about right. The days of exponential growth on UK railways have ended

I disagree. Passenger numbers will take a while to come back, there’s no doubt about that. But I believe they will eventually return to previous levels.

 

[Hadders]

I agree it'll come back. These things are cyclical.

 

[TheSel]

I agree it'll come back. These things are cyclical.

Now I'm really worried. When is The Plague due?

 

[Mojo]

Just a few random thoughts on previous scenarios.

The late 1980's , certainly in London and South East had a nasty fall in patronage (and indeed from property revenue in the days when there was a BR Property Board - which put a good deal of one way income + rental income into the coffers) , with the result that both "city" commuting fell by around 30% up to about 1992 /3 /4 , which resulted in a scrapping programme of older slam door stock and a "sweat the assets" policy on those that survived. Moving stock around in BR days was pretty simple without leasing arrangements etc , as long as the depots could handle the work. Key mixed traffic depots like Stratford were hugely reduced in size.

A broadly 5% cut in services was ordered - which was often done by knocking out first and late evening trains , and slashing Sunday services , - hard to imagine now that Thameslink North was reduced to basically 1 tph on Sunday mornings.

Optional leisure traffic fell off a cliff , despite every effort to nurture it. Station staffing was cut right back in all areas. Investment slowed right down bar critical areas / safety related matters post Clapham in particular.

Overall staff numbers were reduced all over - Area Managers took over increasing geographical areas for example from previous patterns. (such that the AM Waterloo found his terrain now stretched to Dorking ! , Swansea had about a third of Wales. The BRB issued at least twice , special "severance packages" to encourage people to leave at their own volition , rather than force severance through reorganisations. Many experienced managers took the hint and left at the age of around 50 or so , when they could. Challenging times

The Speedlink Network was effectively curtailed , remaining bulk (say non coal) block trains were examined and if there were resource issues, or an inability to increase revenue from the customer - were squeezed out.

So what were the causes of this substantial reduction in staff across all functions ? A mixture of :-

(a) Serious fall in Central London Employment (and elsewhere)
(b) Less high value Inter-City traffic due to general recessions / less optional traffics
(c) Less L+SE leisure traffic in general (though some would say that lurking IRA activities played a part in that following a number of severe incidents in Docklands , and the City , Harrods , Ideal Home + smaller ones in many other areas.
(d) The results of de-industrialisation , run down of the steel and coal industries etc.......
(e) Reducing cash support for regional passenger services - in both urban , and especially rural areas. Some line closures , but general thinning out.

So , I hope that this (depressing) portrayal of the past has not ruined your Friday.

We are in uncharted waters to use a common term.

My guess is that the awareness and contractual protection of the social passenger railway , the carbon agenda etc will hopefully spare us from the worse.

I can see a marked reluctance to go for "growth" in the short term. At least on the existing operational railway. Be interesting to see how much of the December timetable gets implemented. It will take time to"bounce back" 9/11 knocked the airline business back for about 2 years , Hatfield dented figures for a year or so. These tragedies materially different to a bottoming World economy that we have at the present. After lockdown , despite a yearning to get out and about , significant percentages of optional passengers will be cash strapped due to employment / debt issues. Previously discussed commuting flows may well be reduced due to "WF Home + technology"

A really great post and highly interesting. As a railway manager who started in a very different era, it really made good reading. Thank you.

 

[HH]

I agree it'll come back. These things are cyclical.

No, they're not. You can always point to the reasons behind changes in demand, and what drove rail usage up from the end of the 90s, was not the reverse of what had been driving usage down since the second World War, and so on.

We are going to take a permanent hit from covid-19. Maybe there will be an upturn in the future, but that will be for solid, socio-economic reasons, not merely because the wheel has turned a number of times.

 

[Hadders]

No, they're not. You can always point to the reasons behind changes in demand, and what drove rail usage up from the end of the 90s, was not the reverse of what had been driving usage down since the second World War, and so on.

We are going to take a permanent hit from covid-19. Maybe there will be an upturn in the future, but that will be for solid, socio-economic reasons, not merely because the wheel has turned a number of times.

I don't disagree with you but for whatever reason rail use will come back. It might take a little time but it will come back. The same is true for the economy in general.

 

[Mag_seven]

Now I'm really worried. When is The Plague due?

I think @Hadders is talking about rail usage being cyclical not COVID-19 being cyclical.

 

[Hadders]

I think @Hadders is talking about rail usage being cyclical not COVID-19 being cyclical.

Correct!