GWR will continue to have a diesel fleet at Reading until the Reading to Redhill via Guildford line is electrified (not any time soon!). Looks like they will need to retain a fair few units if the OXF-BAN shuttle is to remain Turbo operated.
They won't need a fair few units - the plan, at least last I heard, is for there to be a pair of two-car 165s provided at Oxford each weekday to cover the Banbury shuttle and the morning and afternoon peak Cotswold Line halts services.
So how does all this work?
London to SoA was GWR, then moved to Chiltern, with some suggestions in this thread that may go back to GWR.
Is this the ToCs making the case to the DoT that they want to obtain/lose this line? Or is there someone in the DoT with a grand plan who thinks moving a line from ToC A to ToC B is a good idea?
The last time that the DfT tried to run a competitive franchise bidding process for GW services in 2012 - which was cancelled after the West Coast fiasco - one or more of the bidders suggested a revived Paddington-Oxford-Stratford service in the early stages and this idea then appeared in the invitation to tender issued by the DfT as a potential additional service bidders might like to provide detailed proposals for - but it was not regarded as a core service for the GW franchise.
From page 49 at
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...hment_data/file/3596/invitation-to-tender.pdf
4.3.2.2 Franchise Geography
The Franchise Agreement (paragraph 2.2 of Schedule 1.6), sets out the routes over which the Franchisee is permitted to operate. This has been based on those of the current franchise plus two further routes that have been added following receipt and review of suggestions from Bidders prior to the issue of the ITT. The additional routes over which the Franchisee may also operate if they so wish are:
Southampton Central to Poole from May 2017 onwards only;
and Banbury to Stratford upon Avon.
Bidders are free to operate trains over these routes, subject to fulfilling the other requirements of the Franchise Agreement. Such services will not form part of the TSR. By accepting Bids which include plans for such services, the Department does not guarantee it will support future applications for track access on these routes. During Bid assessment the Department may risk adjust revenue or cost assumptions if it believes the Bidder has taken an unreasonable view on any future allocation of track access rights.
There was no discussion of possible implications for the Chiltern service and because the franchise process was scrapped and FGW/GWR has been operating on a direct award basis ever since to get the region through the modernisation and electrification process and the introduction of the IEP and 387 fleets, the idea has been on ice ever since.
But GWR is clearly still keen on both a London-Oxford-Stratford service via Banbury and Leamington and reviving the link between the Cotswold Line and Stratford-upon-Avon - which would have the added attraction of adding another tourist hotspot to the mix in the shape of the Cotswolds, plus opening up extra regional journeys around the West Midlands to rail passengers.
Obviously Stratford-Long Marston-Honeybourne reopening is way down the priority list at the moment, but a limited GWR service via Banbury seems perfectly possible.
I don't for a minute envisage a high-frequency operation, just a limited selection of services targeting visitors to Stratford - such as day-tripping overseas tourists travelling from London, which is a big market, but is dominated by coach operators at the moment.
Stratford has one of the lowest percentages of visitors arriving by rail of any major tourist destination in the UK and the current shape of Chiltern's offer from and to London, requiring people to change trains most of the day, isn't likely to improve matters. But if GWR was able to market a direct Class 800 service to tour operators, plenty of group bookings would likely follow. But GWR isn't driven just by Stratford, the ability to offer Oxford as part of the mix is also important - and helped to shape the old NSE/Thames service in the first place.