GEML franchise 2016

[Dave1987]

Er why should the GEML get hand-me-down stock again? Why is it the fault of the staff and passengers of GEML that the DFT will end up with non life expired stock with no home to go to just because they have chosen to replace it elsewhere?

 

[deltic]

It will reach a certain point where the ROSCOs won't finance and supply new stock if their own existing stock is going ex-lease without a new home (or potential one).

Always potential for new entrants into the market that will - while small there are a number of other players besides the big 3

 

[3141]

Er why should the GEML get hand-me-down stock again? Why is it the fault of the staff and passengers of GEML that the DFT will end up with non life expired stock with no home to go to just because they have chosen to replace it elsewhere?

Er, why do you think there's a right to brand new stock before the existing trains are life-expired? "Hand-me-down stock" is an amusingly emotive term but if class 321s are getting a major refurbishment they will be perfectly serviceable for at least the life of the new franchise. The reference to "the fault of the staff and passengers" is almost neurotic. Resources should be managed efficiently, not squandered on replacements that aren't necessary.

 

[hwl]

Er, why do you think there's a right to brand new stock before the existing trains are life-expired? "Hand-me-down stock" is an amusingly emotive term but if class 321s are getting a major refurbishment they will be perfectly serviceable for at least the life of the new franchise. The reference to "the fault of the staff and passengers" is almost neurotic. Resources should be managed efficiently, not squandered on replacements that aren't necessary.

Good post and agree. Efficient management of resources will mean DfT gets large payments from the TOC. (DfT still subsides the Anglia NR costs so will want to reduce this with more coming from passengers)
The only real advantage on cost is if new stock to replace the existing EMUs has much lower operating costs.

 

[Dave1987]

Er, why do you think there's a right to brand new stock before the existing trains are life-expired? "Hand-me-down stock" is an amusingly emotive term but if class 321s are getting a major refurbishment they will be perfectly serviceable for at least the life of the new franchise. The reference to "the fault of the staff and passengers" is almost neurotic. Resources should be managed efficiently, not squandered on replacements that aren't necessary.

Right so by that argument why did the DFT order these brand new trains for the ECML when the current stock isn't life expired yet? *Only* 30 321's are supposedly getting fully refurbed, and considering they were all meant to be in service by the start of the new franchise but not one is refurbed and in active service yet. And your comment about resources being efficiently managed is just laughable!
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Good post and agree. Efficient management of resources will mean DfT gets large payments from the TOC. (DfT still subsides the Anglia NR costs so will want to reduce this with more coming from passengers)
The only real advantage on cost is if new stock to replace the existing EMUs has much lower operating costs.

Er as far as I'm aware GEML is a premium paying franchise. Northern required massive subsidies yet they are getting a whole new fleet of trains on the premise that a massive growth in passenger numbers will pay for them!

 

[hwl]

Always potential for new entrants into the market that will - while small there are a number of other players besides the big 3

The proposal I was commenting on would have hit the big 3 and 1 of the recent new comers which might not encourage that many new entrants once they start to be be hit. Do we know if Section 54 agreements are in place?

 

[pemma]

Er as far as I'm aware GEML is a premium paying franchise. Northern required massive subsidies yet they are getting a whole new fleet of trains on the premise that a massive growth in passenger numbers will pay for them!

Northern are receiving 'cast-offs' from GWR, LM, Scotrail and Thameslink as well. There's two reasons Northern are getting new trains:

1. There won't be enough diesel cast-offs to replace the Pacers and to run the services Northern are additionally taking on. The cast-offs from Scotrail will be among the newest diesels in the fleet even after the new trains arrive.
2. A need for 3 car EMUs with fast acceleration, the need was made greater by a ROSCO deciding a North of England TOC could no longer lease their trains - the second time it's happened.

Why are the 156/172/185/317/321/322 'cast-offs' not suitable for Anglia, allowing for the fact the 172s or 185s could go elsewhere and allow 156s or 170s to go to Anglia instead?

 

[hwl]

Right so by that argument why did the DFT order these brand new trains for the ECML when the current stock isn't life expired yet? *Only* 30 321's are supposedly getting fully refurbed, and considering they were all meant to be in service by the start of the new franchise but not one is refurbed and in active service yet. And your comment about resources being efficiently managed is just laughable!
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Er as far as I'm aware GEML is a premium paying franchise. Northern required massive subsidies yet they are getting a whole new fleet of trains on the premise that a massive growth in passenger numbers will pay for them!

They pay a premium of 6.7p/passenger mile to DfT however DfT pays NR 9.3p / passenger mile so passengers get 2.6p/mile in subsidy overall and DfT would like to make it more like SWT, Southern and East Coast that cover their NR costs too! (Other recently awarded franchises will be joining this club soon too!)

321 delays probably partially down to 458/5 delays at wabtec.

 

[MrPIC]

I'd put money on 317's being the only EMU's in the franchise to be replaced, they are the worst performing Electric fleet in the area.

 

[306024]

I'd put your money on that too. It is the DMU fleet that needs sorting, but they only generate a fraction of the franchise income.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Do you have a source for that? I had a look through the ITT a while back and don't recall any requirement for new trains even if some people are saying that if VTEC, GWR and TPE are all getting new trains then GEML should as well.



As far as I'm aware the following will become off-lease with no future operator confirmed:
- 5 x 156s from Scotrail - enough to eliminate the Anglia 153s
- 22 x 185s from TPE
- 8 x 172s from LO

And there could well be an indirect cascade to allow 172s and/or 185s to replace 156s or 170s elsewhere so that more 156s or 170s go to Anglia.

Sorry I didn't mean it as in fixed in the ITT but you read through it and listening to the news, with all the talk of improvements, I can't see the DFT awarding the franchise to someone not offering replacement of the class 90s / mk3s with new stock, I would rather see the VTEC 91s tbh but I can't see that being politically do-able

On the cascade notes on the DMUs I thought the scotrail 156s were spoken for (or did I just imagine it) and that would only be short term as by the end of the franchise they will be nearly 40 years old, the 172s would be the trains to get if they became available to supplement existing fleet.

 

[SPADTrap]

I'd put your money on that too. It is the DMU fleet that needs sorting, but they only generate a fraction of the franchise income.

He did say EMU's. :P

 

[306024]

He did say EMU's. :P

Indeed he did, and I agreed, and further ventured a view about the DMUs. The thread is about the GE franchise after all.

Can't for a moment understand why anyone thinks an ECML 91 set would be suitable on the GEML, but each to their own opinion. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many seats in one of those please?

 

[SPADTrap]

Indeed he did, and I agreed, and further ventured a view about the DMUs. The thread is about the GE franchise after all.

Can't for a moment understand why anyone thinks an ECML 91 set would be suitable on the GEML, but each to their own opinion. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many seats in one of those please?

Well its a thread about the East Anglia Rail Franchise given we're one and all :razz: I thought you were saying you would bet his money but not yours! My misunderstanding

Don't worry about 91s, you'll be rattling about to Norwich in DOO 387s, enjoy the white noise cab fans! Hope there are no loco hauled complexes!

 

[306024]

Well its a thread about the East Anglia Rail Franchise given we're one and all :razz: I thought you were saying you would bet his money but not yours! My misunderstanding

Don't worry about 91s, you'll be rattling about to Norwich in DOO 387s, enjoy the white noise cab fans! Hope there are no loco hauled complexes!

I would always bet with someone else's money With the DfT as the bookie you're on a loser before the hare is running.

Had a ride on a new 387 from Gatwick the other week. Like sitting on an ironing board. Loo flushed but no water or hand dryer working. Don't start that rumour, please

 

[pemma]

On the cascade notes on the DMUs I thought the scotrail 156s were spoken for (or did I just imagine it)

10 are being released and 5 are being taken on by Northern which suggests 5 are going to another franchise with 156s (Anglia or EMT.)

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Indeed he did, and I agreed, and further ventured a view about the DMUs. The thread is about the GE franchise after all.

Can't for a moment understand why anyone thinks an ECML 91 set would be suitable on the GEML, but each to their own opinion. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many seats in one of those please?

I just think that all these people down here campaigning for new rolling stock need to be careful what they wish for... class 387s for example...

Admittedly the 91s won't increase the density of seating but do Anglia / DFT want to keep it as Intercity or does it become a commuter line? I'm not a big fan of the 'cheap option' of increasing seat density as long term answers to overcrowding, its either longer trains or more of them that make a real difference

 

[Sleepy]

So will the new franchisee be announced tomorrow or will the referendum hiatus delay it until end of June ?

 

[deltic]

I'd put money on 317's being the only EMU's in the franchise to be replaced, they are the worst performing Electric fleet in the area.

I'd bet the whole fleet will be replaced - Roger Ford was highlighting this month that new rolling stock is becoming a lot cheaper

"New challenges for rolling stock market As I explain on the column, the modern perception is that the Rolling Stock Companies (ROSCO) were sold off for a pittance and turned out to be risk-free money machines. Well, I was there at the time and only four serious bids were received, three of them from Management Buyouts. In the case of the consortium I was advising, the high street bank providing the finance pulled out two days before bids were due to go in because the Chairman through the deal too risky.

Since then, with continuous ridership growth outstripping capacity, pretty well everything on wheels has been in demand. As the Table in the April Informed Sources showed, between now and the end of the current Control Period 5 in March 2019, some 4,000 new passenger vehicles are due to be delivered. While 60% of these are state procured and funded – the Intercity Express Programme (IEP), Thameslink and Crossrail fleets - 1500 are being privately funded, around 1000 of these by the ROSCOs.

Meanwhile, new train prices are falling, thanks to a combination of large production runs and operators going for lower specifications. Even better, the cost of funding for new trains has been slashed.

So cheaper trains costing less to lease; what’s not to like? As ever, the rolling stock market is not as straightforward as it seems.


First of all, there is the 1 January 2020 deadline for all rolling stock to be compliant with the accessibility regulations derived from the Passengers with Reduced Mobility – Technical Specification for Interoperability (PRM-TSI). That is just over 1300 days away

Already ex British Rail multiple units are being made PRM-TSI compliant during C6 heavy overhauls. But that expenditure is taking the risk that operators will want to keep these trains in service after 2020.

To mitigate this risk, the ROSCOs are choosing to double up the bet by investing in upgrades to make the trains even more attractive to both passengers and operators. Thus Eversholt has begun upgrading the Greater Anglia Class 321 fleet under the Renatus programme, with retractioning with three phase drives an option. Similarly with Porterbrook’s retractioning of South West Trains’ refurbished Class 455 fleet.

Sounds reasonable until to you combine more-affordable new trains with DfT’s weighting for quality in franchise bid evaluation. As Transport Minister Claire Perry said in a written answer on 10 May, the specification for the replacement Anglia franchise requires bidders to include ‘high quality rolling stock’ in their offers. She added that 30% of the available quality points from the franchise evaluation will be awarded for rolling stock improvement plans, ‘the highest level in any franchise’.

With cheap new trains at rock bottom lease rentals it seems certain that replacing Anglia’s Class 317s, and perhaps the Class 321 fleet, could be a winning move. And why stop at the ex-BR EMUs? The Class 360s are getting on too. "

Roger Ford informed sources

 

[pemma]

So will the new franchisee be announced tomorrow or will the referendum hiatus delay it until end of June ?

Claire Perry was quoted as saying the following last September

These will then be evaluated and I expect to announce my intention to award the contract to the preferred bidder in June 2016, with the new 9 year East Anglia franchise expected to start in October that year.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/rail-franchising-east-anglia-invitation-to-tender

 

[MrPIC]

deltic- funny enough I read that exact article a day after I wrote that post!
317's as much as I have a soft spot for them are a real menace with faults and failures. I'd be well up for new WA stock, but I am afraid to lose the droplight windows. I like when punters say thanks, and I like being able to let the summer in (all 3 days worth!)

 

[dquebec]

My railway contact advises Stagecoach Group may back in with Abellio.

 

[DasLunatic]

...but I am afraid to lose the droplight windows.

Don't the 379s have droplights, then?

 

[plcd1]

My railway contact advises Stagecoach Group may back in with Abellio.

Surely Stagecoach would have had to make a regulatory announcement as that could affect their earnings / share price etc? The failure to agree terms with Abellio was hidden away in their detailed trading update on 9 Dec 2015.

The Group has 40% of a joint venture with Abellio, which is shortlisted to bid for a new East Anglia rail franchise. We have been unable to reach an agreement with Abellio on elements of the proposed bid. As a result of that, and taking account of the other rail bidding opportunities that we anticipate over the next two years, we have decided not to proceed with an equity participation in the bid for the new East Anglia franchise.

We have confirmed to Abellio our commitment to provide support and advice to the franchise if Abellio’s bid is successful.

Note the reference to "support and advice" so if your contact is correct that Stagey are involved again then that might point to who is the possible winner?

 

[grumblingalong]

My railway contact advises Stagecoach Group may back in with Abellio.

My railway contact says the Wombles of Wimbledon will be building the new rolling stock.

 

[HH]

These sorts of rumours are more often wrong than right. That statement by Stagecoach looks more like a face-saving exercise than a commitment to help - exactly what support and advice are they going to offer - Abellio already run the franchise!

 

[SPADTrap]

Don't the 379s have droplights, then?

Yes but they require some contortion to open from the seat which isn't comfortable and don't let any air in by design. For some reason Bombardier fitters tell me it's a sealed cab, he couldn't account for the gaping casm on the front though!

 

[dquebec]

6 Stagecoach Group and EMT directors met with Greater Anglia management on Thursday.

 

[SPADTrap]

deltic- funny enough I read that exact article a day after I wrote that post!
317's as much as I have a soft spot for them are a real menace with faults and failures. I'd be well up for new WA stock, but I am afraid to lose the droplight windows. I like when punters say thanks, and I like being able to let the summer in (all 3 days worth!)

Don't take my 317s away :cry:

 

[HH]

6 Stagecoach Group and EMT directors met with Greater Anglia management on Thursday.

That does seem to suggest the game is afoot. I wonder what it is that Abellio think they can bring, and how much they'll pay. I'll bet the winning bid is already pretty tight, especially given the recent (nation-wide) slowdown in passenger growth.