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General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

How are you voting in the General Election

  • Conservative

    Votes: 25 18.0%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 10.8%
  • Labour

    Votes: 45 32.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 16 11.5%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • UK Independence Party

    Votes: 13 9.4%
  • Other: Right Leaning Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Left Leaning Party

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other: Centrist Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Other

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Not Voting

    Votes: 7 5.0%
  • Spoiling Ballot

    Votes: 3 2.2%

  • Total voters
    139
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Anyhow as we only have a little over 5 months till the general election has anybody got any thoughts on what form the next government will take?

Based on current polls neither the Conservatives or Labour will win enough seats to gain an overall majority so a coalition is looking likely. My guess is that it will be a Labour/SNP coalition.

EDIT: Good article in the Guardian discussing the rise of the SNP in Scotland

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...cotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster

Labour is on course for a bloodbath in Scotland in 2015, according to a special Guardian/ICM online poll.

The Scottish National party, which took only 20% of the vote in the 2010 general election, has subsequently more than doubled its vote to reach a commanding 43% of the prospective poll next May. Scottish Labour, which secured a very strong 42% in Gordon Brown’s homeland last time around, has since tumbled by 16 points to just 26%.

The Conservatives sink from 2010’s 17% to 13%, while the great bulk of the 19% share that the Liberal Democrats scored last time around is wiped out as they fall by 13 points to 6%.

On a uniform swing, these results – which are reinforced by a recent Survation poll for the Daily Record – would entirely redraw the political map. Labour’s band of 41 Scottish MPs would be reduced to a parliamentary rump of just 10 members....
 
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cuccir

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Labour government with SNP/PC (and SDLP/Greens if numbers are tight) support but not a formal coalition. The catch would be if SNP gains from Labour wipe out Labour's gains in England and Wales - they may then need Lib Dems.

A second possible outcome is another Conservative/Lib Dems coalition, which is plausible if Tories rally a little and incumbent Lib Dems outperform their national vote percentage.
 

ainsworth74

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Labour will be the largest party (by a reasonably comfortable margin say thirty or so seats) but will not have a majority. Therefore some manner of coalition (formal or otherwise) between them and potentially with the SNP (who will most likely have wiped out Labour in Scotland and be the third largest party). Alternatively they might try their hand at running a minority government but historically that hasn't gone well (this is increasingly likely if their only around ten seats short of a majority).

Lib Dems will be wiped out probably down to around ten or so seats and I'd put a small wager on Nick Clegg being unseated. UKIP will gain something like ten seats themselves and the Greens will hold a few seats as well.
 

Kite159

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Labour with most seats, but not enough for a outright victory.

Lib Dems to be replaced as the 3rd party by UKIP (scary thoughts)

One thing for certain, whoever the Tories decide to put in this area (current MP retiring) will probably win [one of the safest seats], even if it's a monkey.
 

TheWalrus

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I think Labour will win the most seats but maybe a Tory-Ukip coalition?

I hope Miliband does not become PM.
 

MidnightFlyer

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Absolutely anything that doesn't involve Labour being in government please.
 

Drsatan

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I imagine a Labour-SNP coalition is the most likely option. If there is a minority Tory government, the only possible coalition partner will be the Lib Dems - I can't imagine UKIP gaining enough seats to be considered a viable coalition partner.

If there is a minority Labour government, I expect the tabloids will blame foreign nationals for corrupting British democracy (Commonwealth nationals can vote in General Elections).
 

GaryMcEwan

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Here's hoping for a resounding Labour victory, the thought of the SNP being a key player in Westminster is a bit ironic anyway seeing as they wanted Independence not so long ago...

Only sticking point is Ed Miliband...
 

12CSVT

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Hung Parliament. How many parties are needed to form a coalition is anybody's guess.
 

Busaholic

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Labour will be the largest party (by a reasonably comfortable margin say thirty or so seats) but will not have a majority. Therefore some manner of coalition (formal or otherwise) between them and potentially with the SNP (who will most likely have wiped out Labour in Scotland and be the third largest party). Alternatively they might try their hand at running a minority government but historically that hasn't gone well (this is increasingly likely if their only around ten seats short of a majority).

Lib Dems will be wiped out probably down to around ten or so seats and I'd put a small wager on Nick Clegg being unseated. UKIP will gain something like ten seats themselves and the Greens will hold a few seats as well.

Ironically, the lack of proportional representation may save Clegg. There'll be so many fringe candidates garnering votes, whereas with PR nobody not supporting Clegg directly would vote for him as second/third choice and that alone could have sunk him. If he does lose, when was the last time a leader of a main party did so as a sitting member?
 

Cambus731

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Lets just hope that the Conservatives do not win an overall working majority. It would be an absolute disaster for the UK as it was in 1992.
And lets also hope that UKIP don't get involved in any Coalition as that would seriously threaten HS2
 

Busaholic

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Anyone but the Tories. A Tory-Ukip coalition and I'm heading for the airport.

Farage would have to announce an anti-emigration policy. I believe Roumania has cheap housing and cost of living, I'll take my state pension there.:lol:
 

ExRes

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Anything other than a Labour government, after 13 years of lies and inaction from 1997 to 2010, other than a massive debt legacy and giving away our gold reserves, how could anyone actually vote for Miliband and his bunch of Liberals, or should it be Labourites, no, Liberals I think
 

Butts

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One of the most interesting factors will be the turnout.

I would care to wager it will be nowhere near the level of the recent Scottish Referendum (including in Scotland itself).

My guess would be a Coalition....

Either Labour/SNP or more of the same - Conservative/Lib Dem :idea:
 

muddythefish

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Farage would have to announce an anti-emigration policy. I believe Roumania has cheap housing and cost of living, I'll take my state pension there.:lol:

There won't be a pension if the Tories have their way. After the damage they caused from 1979 onwards and their continuing attack on public services over the past 5 years I shudder to think of the state of the nation in 2019 if Cameron and his cronies are elected again.
 

Qwerty133

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Hopefully anyone but Labour...
I'll guess at a Conservative/ UKIP/ Lib Dem coalition (Cameron PM, Clegg (or new leader) Deputy PM, Farage Home Secetary.)
(although the UKIP bit could be more hope).
 

bb21

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I will be very bold and say that unless more Tories defect, UKIP will not have any more than one additional seat.

Ed Miliband does a lot of damage for Labour, so I reckon there will still be a Tory lead, either with just enough seats for a single-digit majority or just under that. Con-Dem coalition should just see them over the line if needed. Better the devil you know and all that...

SNP strong contenders for third place against Lib Dem.

I can't see a Tory - UKIP coalition, but if that becomes reality, then god help us.
 

Qwerty133

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I will be very bold and say that unless more Tories defect, UKIP will not have any more than one additional seat.

Ed Miliband does a lot of damage for Labour, so I reckon there will still be a Tory lead, either with just enough seats for a single-digit majority or just under that. Con-Dem coalition should just see them over the line if needed. Better the devil you know and all that...

SNP strong contenders for third place against Lib Dem.

I can't see a Tory - UKIP coalition, but if that becomes reality, then god help us.

I can see UKIP gaining at least one 'safe' conservative seat, probably somewhere where a long standing MP is standing down, and the new candiate has no local connection (although I have no specific seat in mind, I'm thinking of a seat in a similar position to South Leicestershire, where some vote as much for the current MP, as for the party, but not South Leicestershire itself as that's probably to safe, although I can see both UKIP and the Lib Dems doing better than Labour in that seat, due to a certain labour politician being laughing stock in the area, and being seen as someone who just does what he wants whatever anyone else wants.)
As well as several marginal seats, in total I expect UKIP will have 8-12 seats, with a much higher share of the total vote than the Lib Dems.
 
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Manchester77

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Labour will probably be the largest party with around 300 seats however losing many of their Scottish seats (except those in the Glasgow area most likely). The conservatives will probably get around 285 losing a few to UKIP and their Scottish seat to the SNP. The third party will almost certainly be the SNP getting around 35 seats from across Scotland (leaving Scotland mainly yellow expect for some red dotted around and one lib dem!). The lib dems will probably lose most seats to labour getting around 25 seats and being relegated to the forth party. Plaid will also probably lose most of their seats retaining 1 most likely. The greens will certainly retain Brighton Pavilion and if they're lucky will (hopefully) get Bristol West! UKIP will probably retain their 2 recent tory gains as well as gain a few other ones from the Tories. The likely result will be a labour minority government supported by the lib dems or SNP. I doubt we'll see an SNP coalition because it would cause them to lose their uniqueness from labour in Scotland.

In the next few months though I expect we'll hear a lot of the Long Term Economic Plan! :((0
 

Gathursty

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As much as I'd like to see more of UKIP, I imagine the type of people who would vote for UKIP are the same people who wouldn't be arsed or forget to vote on that fateful Thursday.

I don't think Labour or the Tories have enough support to get as many seats as they think they'll get, however due to first past the post, they will gain fewer but proportionally similar seats to the previous elections.

The Greens will get more seats, as will UKIP. The SNP may become the third party, surpassing the Lib Dems who will be massacred in 2015. I won't say UKIP will replace them because it is a huge ask but I will put everything I own on another coalition winning governance come May but this coalition may break down very quickly.
 

Greenback

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I'm dreading the next few months of endless campaigning, with the same old nonsense being trotted out by all sides.

I think the Lib Dems may be wiped out and UKIP will fizzle out as the electorate realises that a very close call and a coalition will be the result of giving their votes to smaller parties.
 

Masboroughlad

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Greenback:2027819 said:
I'm dreading the next few months of endless campaigning, with the same old nonsense being trotted out by all sides.

I think the Lib Dems may be wiped out and UKIP will fizzle out as the electorate realises that a very close call and a coalition will be the result of giving their votes to smaller parties.

I agree with your thoughts on the next few months and the LDs and UKIP.

I hope for Labour/SNP/Green coalition (without Ed preferably) but sadly think we will see a Tory majority. Many people want Labour but don't want Ed M as leader/PM. He will lose the election for labour.
 

Oswyntail

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I will be very bold and say that unless more Tories defect, UKIP will not have any more than one additional seat.......
The big question of the election is the UKIP position. However, I believe that their appeal is much more rooted in the traditional Labour vote (particularly on the immigration issue, which has been a Labour problem since the 60s). If Labour continue to ignore this, they may well find things not going their way, perhaps not in losing seats to the Kippers as in not winning the marginals they are expecting.
I do believe the Conservatives will take more seats than others, but possibly not enough to guarantee a government. There may have to be some form of "coalition", but possibly not as formal as at present, and without ministerial roles for outsiders. Which is a shame, because I think the current arrangement has actually worked better than anyone expected.
 

ainsworth74

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There won't be a pension if the Tories have their way.

I think there will be nothing but a pension to be honest! If you look where the cuts have fallen on benefits it is almost enterly on the working age and nothing has really affected Pensioners as yet.
 

Busaholic

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I will be very bold and say that unless more Tories defect, UKIP will not have any more than one additional seat.

Ed Miliband does a lot of damage for Labour, so I reckon there will still be a Tory lead, either with just enough seats for a single-digit majority or just under that. Con-Dem coalition should just see them over the line if needed. Better the devil you know and all that...

SNP strong contenders for third place against Lib Dem.

I can't see a Tory - UKIP coalition, but if that becomes reality, then god help us.

I agree with you on number of UKIP MPs - probably Farage and Carswell, possibly, but by no means certainly, Reckless and possibly one other where the main parties split might let UKIP in. I would be truly amazed if they got 5 MPs.

Just watch Farage leap into bed with Cameron if he gets the opportunity: no foreplay needed. How anyone can allow themselves to be deceived by him as a 'man of the people' beats and depresses me.
 
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