General Election - UKIP vote share?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by telstarbox, 3 May 2015.

UKIP overall vote share?

  1. 0-4%

    9 vote(s)
    12.9%
  2. 5-9%

    17 vote(s)
    24.3%
  3. 10-14%

    33 vote(s)
    47.1%
  4. 15-19%

    9 vote(s)
    12.9%
  5. 20-24%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. 25% or more

    2 vote(s)
    2.9%
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  1. telstarbox

    telstarbox Established Member

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    What % of the vote (as opposed to the number of seats) will UKIP achieve in the election? (NB poll is anonymous)
     
    Last edited: 3 May 2015
  2. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    I think they'll get a decent polling average, but will win at most two seats as their support is too dispersed. It will however help with ditching First Past the Post (FPTP) and moving towards Single Transferrable Vote (STV) or Proportional Representation (PR).
     
    Last edited: 3 May 2015
  3. Mojo

    Mojo Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    UKIP got 26.6% in last year's European Parliament election, I'll take a punt on about 14% based on the latest polls.
     
  4. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    Take it the N.I. seats are excluded? I've voted anyway, in line with the majority so far, it seems. If Scotland was included separately, I'd bet on less than 5% there.
     
  5. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    Overall, in the lower end of the 10-14% range. In terms of actual seats, single figures at best.

    UKIP are largely irrelevant in Scotland, and I can't imagine them getting more than 5% of the vote up here, if that.
     
  6. GrimsbyPacer

    GrimsbyPacer Established Member

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    According to Electoral Calcalus 13.6% is the polling average for UKIP.

    I forecast UKIP will win Clacton and only Clacton at the next election as their support will disappear to help the Tory or Labour side in the marginals they could have won. South Thanet has too much competition for most clown like MP that Farage will hopefully!
     
  7. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    Just a small point but no poll on here is anonymous.
     
  8. GrimsbyPacer

    GrimsbyPacer Established Member

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    I can't see names on it. Anyway what's wrong with a seat prediction? It's not the same as vote intentions.
     
  9. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    You can't see names on it but like private messages it isn't anonymous to anybody who can get into the database.
     
  10. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    This is an issue with any computer system though. I highly doubt anyone is bothered enough to hack into the system to find out.
     
  11. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    Nothing to do with hacking at all the database is available to anyone with authorisation which could be 1, 2 or an unlimited amount of people.

    The owners/administrators of a site need to know if illegal activity is taking place within private messages so that's why they need to be able to read them if they want to.
     
    Last edited: 4 May 2015
  12. higthomas

    higthomas Member

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    If only the administrators can see your vote, that is anonymous to all intents and purposes.
     
  13. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    Not really if then they decide to inform others via various methods.

    I am talking generally here not specifically about this forum.

    It's pretty trivial anyway, who cares what anybody voted.
     
  14. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    Well I'm pretty sure the admins and mods have much better things to do than to broadcast how much of the vote a particular member thinks UKIP will get.
     
  15. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    It honestly depends on the system being used - there are ways to make these things anonymous to everyone, which is how banks work, and they're usually pretty trivial to implement. Obviously banking systems are far more complex, but total anonymity is relatively easy to ensure. Of course encryption is never entire foolproof, but as I said I doubt anyone would bother hacking in to see these results.
     
    Last edited: 4 May 2015
  16. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    As I have already said it's nothing to do with hacking at all.
    The administrators of a site have the ability to see everything written on it, it's all on the site data-base which they have full access to.
    They in turn can give access to as many people as they want to, either full access or partial.
     
  17. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    But that isn't necessarily the case.

    Can an administrator clarify please?
     
  18. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    I'm pretty sure that this has come up before. Yes, I'm sure that the admins (and perhaps moderators, I can't remember for certain?) can read everything on this site, including PMs and indeed the results of hidden polls. This is true on most if not all forum platforms used online.
     
  19. SS4

    SS4 Established Member

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    A good point worth remembering.

    I've put it down for quite low. Voting to send people to Europe isn't as visible as electing MPs to Whitehall and people want to know more.
     
  20. yorkie

    yorkie Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    There were 368,194 posts made in the last year (April 2014-March 2015 inclusive), that's approximately 1,000 per day. Therefore, it's best to assume that the moderation team have not read any post or thread unless it's reported to us, so if you wish to ask us questions please do so using the Contact Us form or via PM, thanks :)

    I appreciate Johnuk123 is "talking generally here not specifically about this forum" but I will answer these general questions as best I can (though this is very much off-topic).

    There is no ability within the vBulletin forum software to view who has voted (on this sort of poll) using any account. No doubt there will be add-ons or hacks available to enable this, but obviously they're not present on this site.

    Very few people would have access to a forum database, and this forum is no different, but it cannot be denied that some people would have to have access, because otherwise the forum could not be supported and maintained. That would be the case with any forum, or other similar software.

    To find out how a particular person voted on a vBulletin forum (other forum software will differ), this is rather time consuming to say the least. Once logged into the database, you'd need to first establish the pollid for the poll in question, and the userid for the user whose vote you wanted to establish. You then would have to query the database for a match of these values, and then see which voteoption was selected, and then establish text value of that option.

    So, when using a poll on probably any vBulletin or similar forum, you will have to bear in mind that if someone with the required level of access really wanted to establish how you voted, they could do so. I doubt this will be a surprise to anyone, though.
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    There's no ability within the forum software to do this, and moderators do not have access to the database.
     
  21. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    That was my prediction in a post some while ago too - Carswell has a lot of support in Clacton and, much though I disagree with his views, appears to be a decent man, not something you can say about many of their main candidates (or the women either). If they do get another seat, I think it may well be in Greater Manchester.
     
  22. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    Are the women not main candidates? :-?
     
  23. MidnightFlyer

    MidnightFlyer Veteran Member

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    Ukip have just text me saying 'history could be made' if they win Heywood on Thursday and it sounded like they were going all out for it; in fairness they took Labour to the limit there last time. It wouldn't bother me so much obtaining that information if I was actually a member and they hadn't been harassing me with these texts for the past 18 months that I haven't actually supported them *, despite how many opt-out texts I send them...

    * - The majority on here will be pleased to know I now treat Ukip with the same resentment I treat every other political party ;)
     
  24. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    Yeah - I think we've got to trust the polls on this one. I'm not sure who thinks they'll get 0% or 25+%, because as much as I'd like the first to be true things just aren't looking that way.

    The latter does remind me a little of the incessant "everyone I know is voting UKIP!" comments on the Daily Mail website et al. Confirmation bias, anyone?
     
  25. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    An interesting poll I've seen, looking at the split of the vote by newspaper readership

    [​IMG]
    Poll obtained from The Times, published on their Twatter feed.

    Not many surprises here. UKIP not looking to get too much of support all things considered, even from the only newspaper that publicly support them The "World's Greatest Newspaper" itself, The Daily Express (only 27% of their readership).

    Quickly crunched the numbers, and overall it's close to 15%, although these should be interpreted with caution, not least because non-newspaper readers are not included, neither are other parties (such as the SNP).
     
    Last edited: 5 May 2015
  26. dcsprior

    dcsprior Member

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    Based on that those figures the endorsement by The Independent (my newspaper of choice when south of the border) of a continuation of the current LibDem/Conservative coalition is clearly based on principles rather than commercial gain, much as I may disagree with it.
     
  27. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    The principle of being bankrolled by a Russian oligarch, by any chance? One who may have to stump up a fair bit more on property taxes than at present if Labour get in.:)
     
  28. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    I saw people on Twitter say that because of the high vote numbers for UKIP they were considering heading to the US. This seems a bit silly - they want to go from a country where maybe 2 elected politicians belong to a racist party to one where 50% do.
     
  29. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    Reminds me of the inverse, where some Republicans wanted to flee to Canada after the Affordable Care Act. A country which has universal healthcare.
     
  30. richa2002

    richa2002 Established Member

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    I'll never know why wishing to control immigration is racist but never mind, it's what happens when people lose the argument. I mean, isn't it terrible, thinking 300,000 extra people each year might just be causing too much strain on public services and introducing too much cultural change in some areas of the country which in turn, causes division when there is not sufficient time to integrate with the local community.
     
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