Google Mobility Reports - Post Lockdown 1 and onwards.

[Jozhua]

Hi Everyone.

I realised Google Mobility Reports are still a thing and thought it would be interesting to revisit it.

Google Mobility Report 21-01-10 United Kingdom

10th January 2021 - Stay at home orders, national lockdown.

United Kingdom:
Retail & Recreation -68%
Supermarket & Pharmacy -27%
Parks -13%
Public Transport -65%
Workplaces -31%
Residential +12%

This is interesting to contrast with April, when I looked at the first one of these:

Google Mobility Report 20-03-29 United Kingdom

29th March 2020 - Stay at home orders, national lockdown.

United Kingdom:
Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%

So it's clear that people are less responsive to the second lockdown, despite the situation arguably being more dire. What is different now is more universal mask-wearing and some better understanding of viral spread (if questionably implemented).

To look at some regions in comparison between lockdown 1/3 would be interesting.

10th January 2021 - Stay at home orders, national lockdown.

Greater London:
Retail & Recreation -74%
Supermarket & Pharmacy -34%
Parks -29%
Public Transport -71%
Workplaces -37%
Residential +14%

So right off the bat, it's clear people in London are following guidelines more strictly, which would make sense considering it is currently the worst hit area in the country.

29th March 2020 - Stay at home orders, national lockdown.

Greater London:
Retail & Recreation -87%
Grocery & Pharmacy -48%
Parks -59%
Transit Stations -80%
Workplaces -62%
Residential +19%

Although still, not quite as much as they did back in March, although the differences are not quite as large as they are on a national scale.

Now for my current home city...
10th January 2021 - Stay at home orders, national lockdown.

Greater Manchester:
Retail & Recreation -67%
Supermarket & Pharmacy -26%
Parks -20%
Public Transport -68%
Workplaces -28%
Residential +12%

Very similar to national averages at the moment, within 5 percentage points. Definately puts to bed the idea people in the city are somehow "responsible" for our higher rates of viral spread.

29th March 2020 - Stay at home orders, national lockdown.

Greater Manchester:
Retail & Recreation -84%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -44%
Transit Stations -80%
Workplaces -54%
Residential +16%

Still not quite as strict as we were in March though, which makes sense and tracks with national trends.

Shall we compare some countries?

29th March 2020

UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%

USA -1289 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -47%
Grocery & Pharmacy -22%
Parks -19%
Transit Stations -51%
Workplaces -38%
Residential +12%

France -1223 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -88%
Grocery & Pharmacy -72%
Parks -82%
Transit Stations -87%
Workplaces -56%
Residential +18%

10th January 2021

United Kingdom - 48,381 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -68%(+17)
Supermarket & Pharmacy -27%(+19)
Parks -13%(+39)
Public Transport -65%(+10)
Workplaces -31%(+24)
Residential +12%(-3)

United States - 70,369 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -26%(+21)
Grocery & Pharmacy -13%(+9)
Parks -22%(-3)
Transit Stations -38%(+13%)
Workplaces -17%(+21%)
Residential +7%(+5%)

France -42,109 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -46%(+42)
Grocery & Pharmacy -8%(+64)
Parks -19%(+63)
Transit Stations -38%(+49)
Workplaces -17%(+39)
Residential +6%(-12)

Increases in movement seems to be an international trend!
France does not have a lockdown, but instead a 8pm to 6am curfew, with some regions under curfew from 6pm to 6am.
The curfew is clearly having a very limited impact on overall movement and frankly it would concern me that it would simply force people to do everything in a much shorter time period (so less social distancing). But that's probably for another thread.

 

[bengley]

Interesting to note that on the 10th January report, workplace attendance is only 31% down on the baseline.

Some of those people will be furloughed, some will be working from home and some will have unfortunately been made redundant.

It's likely that a lot of those furloughed will return to work, some of those working from home will return to the workplace and some of those who have been made redundant will get new jobs. To me, this says that once restrictions are lifted and things return to normal, rail use really isn't going to be hit as much as a lot of people think. I think somewhere in the order of half of that 31% will return to the workplace, so maybe a long term 15% drop in people visiting the workplace. That's not so bad - indeed on some trains that will be a welcome reduction in passengers.

 

[Jozhua]

Interesting to note that on the 10th January report, workplace attendance is only 31% down on the baseline.

Some of those people will be furloughed, some will be working from home and some will have unfortunately been made redundant.

It's likely that a lot of those furloughed will return to work, some of those working from home will return to the workplace and some of those who have been made redundant will get new jobs. To me, this says that once restrictions are lifted and things return to normal, rail use really isn't going to be hit as much as a lot of people think. I think somewhere in the order of half of that 31% will return to the workplace, so maybe a long term 15% drop in people visiting the workplace. That's not so bad - indeed on some trains that will be a welcome reduction in passengers.

Exactly, it's said to be about 1 in 5 jobs that can actually be done as WFH, it's certainly not some kind of "revolution" that will end commuting for good.

I'll keep eyes on the transport stats through the year as well, it'll be interesting to see what happens to them!

 

[kez19]

This is just a question, what are the main differences between the Google and Apple mobility any real differences?

The reason I ask was Look North highlighted things by region but had used the Apple one (I thought just again opinion it be better viewing it from both sides)

 

[Jozhua]

This is just a question, what are the main differences between the Google and Apple mobility any real differences?

The reason I ask was Look North highlighted things by region but had used the Apple one (I thought just again opinion it be better viewing it from both sides)

I would imagine Google's sees a much higher cross section of the population than Apple's, considering the Android ecosystem is more popular than iPhone and covers a wider range of price offerings.

I've not seen the Apple one, so I can't comment on how it works

 

[kez19]

I would imagine Google's sees a much higher cross section of the population than Apple's, considering the Android ecosystem is more popular than iPhone and covers a wider range of price offerings.

I've not seen the Apple one, so I can't comment on how it works

I have seen the Apple one but does by country, I don't know how Look North managed to do it (not from Newcastle here, stay in Dundee) but it was just the report they covered and with this thread appearing I just wondered.

*Look North sources were Google.

https://covid19.apple.com/mobility - this is what is displayed for the UK but I can't find the break down by region

 

[island]

So it's clear that people are less responsive to the second lockdown, despite the situation arguably being more dire. What is different now is more universal mask-wearing and some better understanding of viral spread (if questionably implemented).

I think you’ve jumped to a conclusion there. The comparator in March will have been to pre-Covid, whereas the pre-lockdown numbers in January would have been depressed by tier 4 restrictions and people generally staying at home anyway.

 

[yorkie]

I think you’ve jumped to a conclusion there. The comparator in March will have been to pre-Covid, whereas the pre-lockdown numbers in January would have been depressed by tier 4 restrictions and people generally staying at home anyway.

Agreed.

Also other issues I have with the claims made in the opening post are as follows:

The phrase "less responsive" is one I would question.

I also don't agree with the argument that the situation is "more dire"; the reality is you need to compare peoples perception of the risk of death or serious illness back then with what we know now; the reality is that many people did think the fatality rate was a lot higher back then than we now know it to be. Also many more workplaces etc have appropriate controls in place now; there wasn't time to do that in March.

People also mistakenly thought in March that exercising wasn't important and literally stayed at home for the first few weeks; most people now realise this was a mistake.

So I strongly disagree with the narrative expressed in the opening post.

 

[P Binnersley]

More work places are open now they have made "Covid Secure" adjustments. A lot of Manufacturing and Construction is continuing, this largely shutdown in March 2020.
People know what precautions to take and, by and large, are taking them. All the organisations I'm involved with have done Covid risk assessments.

Remember in Lockdown one nobody knew anything about the virus, supermarkets were open with huge queues outside, no screens and no facemasks. Since then we have "Eaten Out to Help Out" and possibly been on some form of holiday or short break. The vast majority with no ill effects.

More people working/travelling does not mean that more people are breaking the rules, just that things have adjusted to work within them.

 

[yorkie]

During the first lockdown I was asked to work from home (WFH) all but one day of the week and not to come in on any other day unless it was an emergency.

Now we have been told it's our choice but we just need to ensure that at least one of us is at work each day, which is sensible.

 

[kez19]

More work places are open now they have made "Covid Secure" adjustments. A lot of Manufacturing and Construction is continuing, this largely shutdown in March 2020.
People know what precautions to take and, by and large, are taking them. All the organisations I'm involved with have done Covid risk assessments.

Remember in Lockdown one nobody knew anything about the virus, supermarkets were open with huge queues outside, no screens and no facemasks. Since then we have "Eaten Out to Help Out" and possibly been on some form of holiday or short break. The vast majority with no ill effects.

More people working/travelling does not mean that more people are breaking the rules, just that things have adjusted to work within them.

See this is also another part where I think the media are trying to spin it negatvely in terms of more traffic on the road, but yet thats the conclusion the jump onto though "breaking the rules" but again what do they want us to do, just sit in the house all day?

 

[squizzler]

According to the graph, the gap between transport use and motoring has narrowed considerably since the summer. I suspect people have realised the government vastly overestimated the risk of using the transport network early on in the pandemic. I gather testing of busses have found little or no traces on common touch points, suggesting the cleaning regimes of operators is very good.

 

[yorkie]

See this is also another part where I think the media are trying to spin it negatvely in terms of more traffic on the road, but yet thats the conclusion the jump onto though "breaking the rules" but again what do they want us to do, just sit in the house all day?

Some people do want exactly that! But those of us who are good at fighting viruses know that is incompatible with being fit and healthy and building up a good immune system

 

[Jozhua]

Agreed.

Also other issues I have with the claims made in the opening post are as follows:

The phrase "less responsive" is one I would question.

I also don't agree with the argument that the situation is "more dire"; the reality is you need to compare peoples perception of the risk of death or serious illness back then with what we know now; the reality is that many people did think the fatality rate was a lot higher back then than we now know it to be. Also many more workplaces etc have appropriate controls in place now; there wasn't time to do that in March.

People also mistakenly thought in March that exercising wasn't important and literally stayed at home for the first few weeks; most people now realise this was a mistake.

So I strongly disagree with the narrative expressed in the opening post.

I'm not at all condoning the actions of the government, I'm simply making observations about the trends in mobility in response to the restrictions and how they appear to be changing over time.

Now, I actually think a few more people out and about is a good thing and frankly it doesn't suprise me that people are growing more tired of it. Perhaps I should have made that more clear. I'm certainly exercising and milling about as I please, the risk of spread outdoors is very remote.

The situation is arguably worse now than it was in march, purely on the healthcare and deaths side of things. Perception of the virus I don't think has changed much among the public, I just think that people have grown more tolerant of the risk and increasingly tired of restrictions and mismanagement. So we'll see how that is affected in the mobility reports as lockdown rolls on

 

[kez19]

Some people do want exactly that! But those of us who are good at fighting viruses know that is incompatible with being fit and healthy and building up a good immune system

Yet I work in care, I still work through this (like many others) but I guess it must help the minority/majority enjoying furlough?

 

[takno]

I would imagine Google's sees a much higher cross section of the population than Apple's, considering the Android ecosystem is more popular than iPhone and covers a wider range of price offerings.

I've not seen the Apple one, so I can't comment on how it works

The BBC website had an article earlier in the week comparing both and DfT data which explained the differences. IIRC Google does it based on actual location traces. Apple figures it out from location search queries

 

[kez19]

The BBC website had an article earlier in the week comparing both and DfT data which explained the differences. IIRC Google does it based on actual location traces. Apple figures it out from location search queries

Thank you for the explanation, that’ll be the reason why (Look North mentioned this - apologies my end) but wondered the differences