Government advice discussion

[Typhoon]

So are millions of people currently making significant additional investments into National Savings? I very much doubt it.

So do I, they announced heavy rate cuts last month https://www.nsandi.com/interest-rates

National Savings might be secure, but savings in it are depreciating compared to any measure of inflation. They don't want you to save, They are saying Please spend!

And when this is over they will want you to spend even more to try to get the economy back on track!

 

[MadCommuter]

The problem with this is that there is a lag of about 1 week on new cases, and of about 2-3 weeks on deaths, in terms of the effect on any given measure. So looking at Italy, you will only see the effect of their lockdown in the next few days. So I would imagine the Government is watching that.

And that's the issue. During those 2-3 weeks, the NHS could be overrun with cases and then it becomes difficult to rein in.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Satire.

Do you think it would be a reasonable strategy to just let people who have severe symptoms of Coronavirus die at home from pneumonia?

The MD article isn't satire. It's written by Dr Phil Hammond, usually, and is very well researched.

All this talk of 4000 deaths in Italy in six weeks glosses over the fact that 50,000 people a month die in the UK. What we don't know is how many of those dying of Coronavirus would have died anyway, but we do know that the average age of a Coronavirus victim in Italy is 78.5 and that 99% of victims had at least one underlying medical condition (source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2172VL)

There are 3m people working in hospitality in the UK, and another 3m people working in retail. Most will lose their jobs. Long-term unemployment and destitution are known to increase morbidity.

I think the current attitude across the world is panic-stricken and will ultimately do more harm to more people.

 

[StephenHunter]

If the NHS is overwhelmed by cases, however, many people who could have survived both Covid-19 and other conditions or injuries will die.

 

[JonathanH]

The MD article isn't satire. It's written by Dr Phil Hammond, usually, and is very well researched.

All this talk of 4000 deaths in Italy in six weeks glosses over the fact that 50,000 people a month die in the UK. What we don't know is how many of those dying of Coronavirus would have died anyway, but we do know that the average age of a Coronavirus victim in Italy is 78.5 and that 99% of victims had at least one underlying medical condition (source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2172VL)

There are 3m people working in hospitality in the UK, and another 3m people working in retail. Most will lose their jobs. Long-term unemployment and destitution are known to increase morbidity.

I think the current attitude across the world is panic-stricken and will ultimately do more harm to more people.

OK, the serious point being raised in the piece is that we have not done our preparation for this virus outbreak by ensuring that the health service has adequate capacity to deal with a sharp spike in hospital admissions. The fact that deaths have been lower through February is interesting. We didn't have a bad flu outbreak this year and temperatures have been fairly mild (no snow). Clearly we can monitor this on a weekly basis as the ONS data comes out.

If it were acceptable for everyone who gets coronavirus to die at home and not trouble the health service, we could probably proceed with letting the virus run its course through everyone with the slightest 'underlying medical condition'. However, that is in no way politically acceptable whereas putting loads of hospitality and retail workers out of a job might only be temporary.

Do you have a suitable alternative strategy? Do you really think that the hospitality and retail sectors will never recover?

I think we have to let the scientists find out more about the virus over the coming weeks before we materially change course and let it run rampant (if that is the plan).

 

[SilentGrade]

I do wish we could stop talking about victims having ‘underlying health conditions’ as if it means that this virus is fine.

Without knowing the specifics it could well be that many of these people lived perfectly normal lives with their ‘condition’ and would’ve lived perfectly normal lives for years had they not got the virus.

It’s important to remember that those who are considered at risk include people with relatively widespread ‘mild’ conditions such as asthma or diabetes - (things that we may even have undiagnosed)

A massive global recession and the extreme austerity that will go with it will have far reaching effects on everyone on the planet.

I think this was pretty much guaranteed regardless of any government mandated shutdowns tbh.

 

[JonathanH]

I do wish we could stop talking about victims having ‘underlying health conditions’ as if it means that this virus is fine.

I agree - too much of the reporting of the deaths makes ordinary people think it won't be them who are going to suffer and die. For the strategy to work and all people to take it seriously, we really do need to start scaring people.

A much more useful statistic would really be to know who the people are occupying the critical care beds. What age are they, how long have they been there, are they obstensibly healthy? How is their recovery going? How many healthy people are in induced comas?

If that could be published, it would make people think that could be them, far more than worrying about 'granny' and people with 'underlying health conditions'.

 

[AndrewE]

A doctor on thr Radio 4 Today programme this morning said half the people in her intensive care unit were in their 30s, she emphasised that the virus is hitting people of all ages and health status.

 

[Tetchytyke]

What age are they, how long have they been there, are they obstensibly healthy? How is their recovery going? How many healthy people are in

The mean age for testing positive in Italy is 63, so one would assume that the admission age will be about the same. As for healthy people being admitted, that isn't reported, but given the evidence of those who sadly passed away I would say probably not many.

Unlike "Spanish flu", this virus thankfully doesn't seem to cause issues with a cytokine storm.

I do agree it is a nasty virus for those who get complications, and it is a particularly unpleasant and aggressive form of pneumonia.

Without knowing the specifics it could well be that many of these people lived perfectly normal lives with their ‘condition’ and would’ve lived perfectly normal lives for years had they not got the virus.

That is the big unknown. 50,000 people a month die in the UK, naturally primarily those who are elderly and have underlying medical conditions. How many Coronavirus victims would have been in that 50,000 anyway does not seem to be known.

However, that is in no way politically acceptable whereas putting loads of hospitality and retail workers out of a job might only be temporary.

OK, the serious point being raised in the piece is that we have not done our preparation for this virus outbreak by ensuring that the health service has adequate capacity to deal with a sharp spike in hospital admissions.

Ironic, really, that the generation this illness is really targeting is the generation who have gladly and cheerfully voted for the government who have run down the NHS.

Joking aside, I also think this is inevitably influencing government policy. Who cares if young retail/hospitality workers get thrown under the bus, they don't vote Tory. This government are that cynical.

The effects of mass shutdowns across Europe will be felt for years. And 40% unemployment is going to be a lot worse for more people for longer.

 

[Meerkat]

Whether victims would have died anyway is only really relevant if they would have died now and after possibly weeks in an intensive care bed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As someone with a very strong immune system (that has a habit of attacking things it shouldn't e.g. gluten) I am very glad it doesn't cause a cytokine storm as I'm sure I wouldn't survive that...

 

[notlob.divad]

Unlike "Spanish flu", this virus thankfully doesn't seem to cause issues with a cytokine storm.

As someone with a very strong immune system (that has a habit of attacking things it shouldn't e.g. gluten) I am very glad it doesn't cause a cytokine storm as I'm sure I wouldn't survive that...

You were saying:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext

As of March 12, 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been confirmed in 125 048 people worldwide, carrying a mortality of approximately 3·7%, compared with a mortality rate of less than 1% from influenza. There is an urgent need for effective treatment. Current focus has been on the development of novel therapeutics, including antivirals and vaccines. Accumulating evidence suggests that a subgroup of patients with severe COVID-19 might have a cytokine storm syndrome. We recommend identification and treatment of hyperinflammation using existing, approved therapies with proven safety profiles to address the immediate need to reduce the rising mortality.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh joy, that's cheered me up

 

[Domh245]

There we go. "A very simple instruction. Stay at home ... only can leave the house for the following: essential shopping as infrequently as possible, 1 exercise per day (run, walk, cycle with household members), medical needs, travelling to/from work where absolutely necessary"

Police will have powers including fines!

 

[yorkie]

News just in:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52000039

From tonight, people will be allowed to leave their homes for:

• shopping for basic necessities, as infrequently as possible
• one form of exercise a day - for example a run, walk, or cycle, alone or with members of their household;
• any medical need, to provide care or to help a vulnerable person;
• travelling to and from work, but only where it is absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home

Mr Johnson says the government will immediately:

• close all shops selling non-essential goods, including clothing and electronic stores - as well as other premises like libraries, playgrounds and outdoor gyms, and places of worship
• stop all gatherings of more than two people in public – excluding people you live with
• stop all social events, including weddings, baptisms and other ceremonies, but allow funerals

Parks will remain open for exercise but gatherings will be dispersed, he says.

This is perhaps not quite as severe as predicted, but perhaps longer at 3 weeks (i.e. until around 13th April)

 

[GB]

I still don't understand why borders and passenger ports haven't been closed. Also, are MOT testers considered key workers...what will happen when people's MOT's run out during this (semi) lockdown?

 

[RichT54]

They are saying 'all shops selling non-essential goods, such as clothing and electronic stores, are ordered to close' - does that include online orders for home delivery?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I still don't understand why borders and passenger ports haven't been closed. Also, are MOT testers considered key workers...what will happen when people's MOT's run out during this (semi) lockdown?

I would have thought that was of fairly low importance in the scheme of things.

 

[hooverboy]

I still don't understand why borders and passenger ports haven't been closed. Also, are MOT testers considered key workers...what will happen when people's MOT's run out during this (semi) lockdown?

They are saying 'all shops selling non-essential goods, such as clothing and electronic stores, are ordered to close' - does that include online orders for home delivery?

home delivery is fine, as long as you advise the couriers of an allocated space where you can receive delivery

MOT's are very low down the list of priorities at the moment

 

[GB]

I would have thought that was of fairly low importance in the scheme of things.

In theory yes it is low importance in the scheme of things, but has relevance for workers travelling to work.

 

[Cowley]

I still don't understand why borders and passenger ports haven't been closed. Also, are MOT testers considered key workers...what will happen when people's MOT's run out during this (semi) lockdown?

Yes I wondered about that earlier (mine’s due in April).
My other half who uses the car does essential work (child protection).

 

[GB]

Yes I wondered about that earlier (mine’s due in April).

I would hope common sense would prevail and rules relaxed a little bit...ie two months out of date no action...guess we will see.

 

[hooverboy]

In theory yes it is low importance in the scheme of things, but has relevance for workers travelling to work.

at the moment,these are exceptional circumtances,there is some leaway in the system for people who are basically essential travel(MOT's etc) and basically housebound(waiving parking restrictions for those who now have to work from home)

Double check with your local council as per the regulations in your area.

good luck and god bless to you all.
tough times ahead.

 

[trainophile]

I wonder if the postmen will still be working.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Well,

I must say, not before time given people's behaviour.

My trips to the pub were already curtailed, as were holidays. I can go out for a walk from my house and combine it with shopping when necessary.

 

[Darandio]

I wonder if the postmen will still be working.

I'd say that's pretty much guaranteed, they have 1.5 million NHS letter to deliver for a start!

 

[bussnapperwm]

How would the rules affect needing to visit banks to pay bills/deposit money to be able to avail one's self of the luxury of online shopping?

Especially as if one does not drive (nearly 2 mile uphill hike to nearest bank branch!

 

[hooverboy]

I wonder if the postmen will still be working.

there is a list of those deemed essential services published. This will become more detailed in the days to come.

 

[hooverboy]

How would the rules affect needing to visit banks to pay bills/deposit money to be able to avail one's self of the luxury of online shopping?

Especially as if one does not drive (nearly 2 mile uphill hike to nearest bank branch!

banks will still be open.


If you have the option of transacting online, do so.

 

[bussnapperwm]

banks will still be open.


If you have the option of transacting online, do so.

I'm depositing funds on behalf of my mother.. who can only just work a classic 3310 when her arthritis is on a good day!!