Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by CeeJ, 21 Aug 2019.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. quantinghome

    quantinghome Member

    Messages:
    765
    Joined:
    1 Jun 2013
    As with many issues, people have their view. But at the end of the day it's about transport, which means it's never going to be a strong election issue outside the areas directly affected.

    The fact that the major anti-HS2 groups have all but stopped campaigning, have no money and are unable to get more than a few people to their events is a powerful demonstration of this.
     
  2. ivanhoe

    ivanhoe Member

    Messages:
    869
    Joined:
    15 Jul 2009
    At this moment, given yields on Government bonds, there's never been a better time to invest in infrastructure.Theres no shortage of takers for UK bonds to fund this project
    The issue is one of politics. History shows us that investment in infrastructure is rarely unsuccessful. You can argue whether City A needs it more than City B but current plans are probably about right.
    My only caveat to this is you also have to plan for local infrastructure improvements in the Cities that HS2 will touch.
     
  3. Geezertronic

    Geezertronic Established Member

    Messages:
    3,639
    Joined:
    14 Apr 2009
    Location:
    Birmingham
    And in the case of Crossrail, big bonuses to the managers even though they have continually failed
     
  4. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

    Messages:
    22,353
    Joined:
    12 Oct 2010
    Location:
    Work - Fenny Stratford(MK) Home - Darlington
    Ah - the Brexit dividend in action.

    That or kicking the can past an autumn election
     
  5. quantinghome

    quantinghome Member

    Messages:
    765
    Joined:
    1 Jun 2013
    Any idea what a tunneller's ring completion bonus is? I think you'd be surprised. Although to be fair that is a bonus for exceeding the target rate.
     
  6. 433N

    433N Member

    Messages:
    526
    Joined:
    20 Jun 2017
    At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself why our high speed rail is so far behind continental europe (ICE, TGV etc ... ).
    How come it is a good idea there but not here ?
    Isn't it time the hand-wringing stopped and we just got on with it.
     
  7. Mag_seven

    Mag_seven Established Member

    Messages:
    5,081
    Joined:
    1 Sep 2014
    Location:
    here to eternity
    Not if it means we throw money down a bottomless pit - there must be a budget and it must be adhered to.
     
  8. superkev

    superkev Established Member

    Messages:
    1,593
    Joined:
    1 Mar 2015
    Location:
    west yorkshire
    The cost of the tunneling required to build any station near the centre of Bradford would probably kill the idea. Probably at least 1.5 miles from the east direction and 2 plus miles from the south west. The plan I saw didn't even show a connection to the Aire valley lines or a route towards Manchester.
    K
     
  9. Camden

    Camden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,608
    Joined:
    30 Dec 2014
    If the finding is that good project management should have ensured a review and flagging up of budget risks some time ago, then it ought to be found out who was at fault for that, and therefore who is responsible for any unnecessary spend.

    Any found unnecessary spend I would hope would be surchargeable to all those held responsible, whether that includes companies or individual ex-ministers, officials, ex-directors, etc.

    Although recovering £7bn seems unlikely, and perhaps some of that would have been spent anyway, but if it recovers even anywhere in the millions it would be worth doing.
     
  10. MidlandMainlie

    MidlandMainlie Member

    Messages:
    658
    Joined:
    5 Aug 2011
    That is what I am wondering if this like the airports commission is a convenient way to delay a controversial decision till after a General Election. Once a GE is out of the way the committee can deliver its repot and the Tories avoid the need to talk about during the campaign.
     
  11. PR1Berske

    PR1Berske Established Member

    Messages:
    2,713
    Joined:
    27 Jul 2010
    Location:
    Preston
    Quite right.
     
  12. Morgsie

    Morgsie Member

    Messages:
    346
    Joined:
    3 Jun 2011
    Location:
    Stoke-On-Trent
    I thought since Andrew Adonis's tenure as Transport Secretary there was a political consensus over HS2. I am concerned by this announcement given Shapps has not ruled out canning it, if ditched then it would be costly given contracts are in place and legislation. Boris is appealing to his base and this is a man that said he would lie in front of bulldozers at Heathrow given he is anti-expansion. Yes have a Review which looks at things and possibly down-scoping the project.

    I live in Stoke and a concern I have is places like Stoke and Stockport's services downgraded.
     
  13. GRALISTAIR

    GRALISTAIR Established Member

    Messages:
    3,208
    Joined:
    11 Apr 2012
    Location:
    Dalton Georgia USA
    Indeed.
     
  14. 6Gman

    6Gman Established Member

    Messages:
    5,553
    Joined:
    1 May 2012
    It will. (But only to a limited degree.)
     
  15. 433N

    433N Member

    Messages:
    526
    Joined:
    20 Jun 2017
    Is there evidence to suggest it will be ?
    Why don't we ask Germany or France how they manage to fund theirs - oh, forgot, this is Britain and we are financial geniuses.

    Just a reminder, the Bank of England can print money ... people might not pay so much for it, but hey, nothing has destroyed the value of the pound like the prospect of Brexit.

    ... and we might want big infrastructure projects to keep our economy going when it tanks in a couple of months.
     
  16. 6Gman

    6Gman Established Member

    Messages:
    5,553
    Joined:
    1 May 2012
    You cannot fund revenue spending (tax cuts) by cutting capital spending (infrastructure).
     
  17. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

    Messages:
    42,126
    Joined:
    20 Oct 2014
    Location:
    Up and down the south WCML (mostly)
    Yes you can. They are both spending. Why would you not be able to?
     
  18. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

    Messages:
    6,121
    Joined:
    6 Jul 2012
    Hold...
     
  19. 6Gman

    6Gman Established Member

    Messages:
    5,553
    Joined:
    1 May 2012
    And how did you calculate this figure?

    {Just noticed you wrote £100 million - at which it would be a bargain ! Presumably you meant billion ?}
     
    Last edited: 21 Aug 2019
  20. 6Gman

    6Gman Established Member

    Messages:
    5,553
    Joined:
    1 May 2012
    Because you only spend capital once. Revenue spending is recurrent.

    And capital expenditure produces an asset. Which, in the case of a railway, has an effectively indefinite lifespan during which it can earn income.
     
    Last edited: 21 Aug 2019
  21. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

    Messages:
    6,121
    Joined:
    6 Jul 2012
    That information isn't in the public domain, however if we take the 11.2 million divided that by 360 days, 15 hours a day, 2 directions of travel and 5 trains an hour your have 200 passengers per train, on each and every train, making the trip between London and the North West.

    However those services stop at other locations and early morning/late evening the number of services drop off a bit.

    As such although that's an average load of ~35-43% that's just part of the picture, as there will also be those traveling shorter distances which will be on top of that. It also doesn't take into account any tidal flow in traffic (more arriving than departing in the morning peak and vice versa).

    As such chances are there a good few services which see loadings of double that ( 70-86%).

    The other problem is with doing that is that is what it looks like today, not what it looks like in 10 years time.

    At 2.5% growth that could well be an average 55% loading just on the London Manchester passengers.

    However last year there was 3.1% growth on Virgin services, if that continued for 10 years and it's approaching 60% full before you consider the local passenger flows or tidal flows or that the earlier/later services tend to be a bit quieter. At that point you'll see even more stations cut from the long distance services to facilitate it.
     
  22. AntoniC

    AntoniC Member

    Messages:
    629
    Joined:
    28 Dec 2011
    Location:
    Southport
    Top Tip :
    Governments normally call for reviews when they know they will get the answer they want.
    I expect HS2 to go to Birmingham/Midlands and thats it.
     
  23. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

    Messages:
    6,121
    Joined:
    6 Jul 2012
    Indeed, it's why the "spend it on the NHS" is a poor suggestion.

    If you give the NHS £100bn in one year they'll net be able to spend it and even if they did there'd be the issue of what to do the next year.

    Therefore you spread it out, but over how long? 10 years, that's great if you need it during that time but after that it would need to make cuts to get back to the pre increase levels. What about 50 years, the increases wouldn't be so much so the cuts at the end wouldn't be that bad, but then you've increased there spend by <2% and so it's hardly worth doing.

    However the payback is likely to be small, unlike infrastructure which puts a lot of money into the economy short term, which boosts spending, which boosts investment & jobs which generates more taxes. However it also makes it easier for business to work, which boosts income, and therefore jobs and investment which generates more taxes.
     
  24. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

    Messages:
    42,126
    Joined:
    20 Oct 2014
    Location:
    Up and down the south WCML (mostly)
    Indeed, but Government think short-term. That probably means you shouldn't cut capital projects to release funds for revenue purposes, but it doesn't mean you can't. Just like it's entirely possible for me to sell my car and blow the money on a drinking binge, but it wouldn't be very clever to do it.
     
  25. LeeLivery

    LeeLivery Established Member

    Messages:
    1,072
    Joined:
    13 Jul 2014
    Location:
    London
    We're in a post-truth world, however. It doesn't matter if that's fact, just as long as voters believe it to be so. If the Mail and Express tell people scrapping HS2 makes tax cuts affordable, sustainable even, they'll believe it and call the experts "biased".
     
  26. 6Gman

    6Gman Established Member

    Messages:
    5,553
    Joined:
    1 May 2012
    Fair point. But a terrible reflection on the current state of public administration at national level.
     
  27. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

    Messages:
    6,121
    Joined:
    6 Jul 2012
    Whilst that is a strong contender for the outcome if I were opposed to HS2 I wouldn't get the champagne out just yet.

    As although that maybe the best outcome they could expect, HS2 is unlikely to die so easily. Give it a few more years of rail growth and even more crowded trains (& extra capacity from phase 1 and maybe phase 2a will almost certainly boost it) and it is likely to be dusted off by someone and brought back.

    With the opposition from the areas like Camden and the Chilterns gone (as they will have already been impacted) the rest would probably get an easier ride, especially with strong rail growth to support it and the ability for people to see how it's made their journey better (even if they don't use HS2 services)

    It may well mean that it isn't fully open until (say) 2040 but don't rule it out so easily if that is the answer now.
     
  28. AntoniC

    AntoniC Member

    Messages:
    629
    Joined:
    28 Dec 2011
    Location:
    Southport
    I am a HS2 supporter - I made that comment on the basis of working for the Govt for the last 30 years - I want the whole thing built but I doubt it will happen.
     
  29. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

    Messages:
    6,121
    Joined:
    6 Jul 2012
    I want suggesting that you were opposed to HS2, I just used your post as it was the last one which had made the suggestion that it would be scaled back to Birmingham / Crewe.
     
  30. Randomer

    Randomer Member

    Messages:
    151
    Joined:
    31 Jul 2017
    Isn't one of the reasons for Crossrail being delayed and suffering significant cost overruns because of some of the de-scoping of the programme resulting in issues now?

    Also how does bringing forwards new lines without linking them to a larger high speed network bring benefits? Although the Leeds-Sheffield route is approaching current capacity in terms of trains per hour it is still significantly at less capacity in terms of train lengths and greater frequency with re-signalling.

    Admittedly this might be the case in terms of WCML usage northwards, I genuinely don't know, but I can't agree that peak time overcrowding on the Birmingham - Leeds or Birmingham - Manchester routes isn't an issue (or for that matter off peak at weekends is fairly dreadful as well.) Now a lot of this is Crosscountry using far too small and low capacity trains but the benefit of separating out local commuters from those going longer distances using an alternative to XC is worthy of consideration.

    Phase 2B will significantly cut journey times between Leeds and Birmingham and with properly developed timetables better journey times for the SW to NW in general. Likewise, it should increase the capacity on the Birmingham to Manchester route both with new services along with freeing up capacity on the WCML for services with more stops useful for more local journeys. From a personal view this might actually be the better long term benefit allowing a segregation of services into true intercity, regional express and local with better fare differentiation and frequencies.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page