Government announces independent review into HS2 programme

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by CeeJ, 21 Aug 2019.

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  1. LNW-GW Joint

    LNW-GW Joint Veteran Member

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    Well actually, high speed rail has crippled SNCF, DB, FS and Renfe (Adif the infrastructure part).
    It's the reason SNCF is restructuring, with the French government writing off €25 billion of their debt but they have to manage the other half.
    Recent lines have been built with contractor funding, much like a PFI deal.
    FS is still spending because the Italian government wants to break the EU limits of government debt.
    Spain is reduced to building single-track high speed lines to meet the political promises but to cut the costs.
    They also have partially built new lines that start and end in the middle of nowhere.
    DB is selling Arriva to attempt to balance the books.
    Maybe only Japan has a high-speed funding model that seems to work (but the fares are not cheap).
    China outstrips them all, of course, but then the west is paying for that with its collective trade deficits.
     
  2. AntoniC

    AntoniC Member

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    No worries
     
  3. thenorthern

    thenorthern Established Member

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    Having a review into things seems to be a good way of kicking the can down the road, Heathrow for example how many reviews, consultants reports and votes in parliament has there been?

    In my opinion the figures for HS2 don't add up but we will see what happens.
     
  4. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    Indeed. Wont stop pages and pages of wibble in the media.
     
  5. nick.c

    nick.c Member

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    I know that parts of the popular press are talking about £100 billion plus, but perhaps there is need for a reality check. The 44 mile Section 1 of HS1 was delivered for £1.9 billion despite having to get through the "Garden of England". Section 2 was more costly involving extensive tunnelling under East London and the major refurbishment / expansion of St Pancras. However the whole lot involving some 70 miles of new route ended up costing under £6 billion.

    High Speed Two, of course is a much bigger project. It involves some 350 miles of new line and several new / expanded stations. However you look at it, I very much doubt it is more than 5 times as big a project - and so doing a very broad brush calculation, construction shouldn't cost much more than £30 billion. Add in some inflation, rolling stock costs and "difficult ground conditions" along small sections of the new route, and the current £56 billion seems reasonable. I'm surprised there's talk of £80 billion.
     
  6. CdBrux

    CdBrux Member

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    On what do you base "this is Boris view all along"?
     
  7. Glenn1969

    Glenn1969 Member

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    Boris is well known for being anti HS2 and has been so for several years
     
  8. thenorthern

    thenorthern Established Member

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    Boris is a bit of a chameleon on HS2 he talks tough but then backs down rather like him lying in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow Airport which he has now said he won't.

    He isn't the only one though as Labour were the ones who originally proposed HS2 but now the party is against it, same with Heathrow Expansion in 2009 the Minister of State for Transport Sadiq Aman Khan wanted an expansion of the airport but now the Mayor of London The Rt Hon. Sadiq Khan is opposed to expanding Heathrow Airport.
     
  9. trebor79

    trebor79 Member

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    Exactly. I've always thought the "East Midlands Hub" to have been a ludicrous idea. You might as well just use the classic lines from Nottingham, Derby or Leicester than traipse all the way to or from Toton.

    I think the Eastern bit will be scrapped in lieu of Electrification of the MML.
    It would make sense for other parts to be rejigged a bit and the design speed lowered to save costs.
    Or maybe they'll throw a curve ball and do something similar to the GCR, but with branches off to Birmingham and other places. Perhaps a HS2 than runs right up the middle of the country to the Central Belt with branches off to major cities East and West?
     
  10. Bessie

    Bessie Member

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    This will be the answer. Also may start/finish at OOC with Crossrail the rest of the way. Can get this done for around £25-30 billion.
     
  11. Snapper

    Snapper Established Member

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    The review won't 'rubber-stamp' cancellation of HS2, just look who's on the panel! https://paulbigland.blog/2019/08/21...els-announced-heres-a-look-and-some-thoughts/

    Neither is it 'Boris's view'. Do not forget his love of grand infrastructure projects that he can put his name to.
     
  12. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

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    However he's also been quoted as saying something like that there's a need for something and so if we're going to cancel HS2 there's going to need to be an alternitve.

    I'd go further and suggest that if you are going to cancel HS2 you'd need to be sure that doing so isn't going to harm you a few years down the line (so for instance you'll need to be sure that growth isn't going to overtake the existing capacity or projects you can deliver).

    You don't want pictures from the Mayor of Manchester* sitting on the floor of a 390 and First confirming that there really weren't any seats on that service or the 3 either side of it (First having decided to get out of rail so don't care if they upset DfT).

    * Take your pick as to politician who is from the opposition and thinks that cancelling HS2 was a bad idea.
     
  13. Snapper

    Snapper Established Member

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    No. Labour are not against HS2 at all. I've listened to their Shadow Transport Minister (Andy McDonald) repeatedly confirm Labour's commitment to HS2.
     
  14. GRALISTAIR

    GRALISTAIR Established Member

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    This is one of the most balanced "political" comments I have ever seen on this board. Thanks for that. I am not into "Bash Boris" nor indeed ridicule Jezza.
     
  15. thenorthern

    thenorthern Established Member

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    Varies depending on the day and which Labour MP is making the statement.
     
  16. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    Time to re-christen HS2 as LS1, assuming anything actually opens (a big assumption)?
     
  17. quantinghome

    quantinghome Member

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    Really? Can you provide a recent quote from a Labour MP speaking against HS2 in an official capacity on behalf of the Labour party (rather than their own personal view)?
     
  18. Morgsie

    Morgsie Member

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    Boris proposed the Thames Airport project and he supported the London Garden Bridge project, look what happened with them both. There is talk of a General Election, it could happen and Boris's giveaways like more money for the NHS and 20,000 extra coppers is seen as electioneering.

    Lib Dems are in favour of HS2 though some Local LD Parties are opposed.
     
  19. PartyOperator

    PartyOperator Member

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    If anything it's the other way around. The trade deficits mean that a large part of China's productive capacity goes towards making stuff for the West that gets paid for in IOUs. When we pay them, they do the only thing they can do with pounds and dollars and euros which is lend the money back to us, pushing down the cost of finance in the West. Or to put it another way, Chinese people make our manufactured goods (possibly as part of Chinese government policy to support employment) so our workers could be building railways, financed by bonds sold to China.

    Equivalently but more directly, China could just sent its workers overseas to build railways here. They do that elsewhere and the UK did the same around the world in the past. That would be unpopular for many reasons but it would be the complete opposite of China getting infrastructure at the expense of the West.
     
  20. Nagora

    Nagora Member

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    I'm sure it will help Birmingham and London while doing nothing much for less densely populated regions. "Self-fulfilling" springs to mind.
     
  21. mmh

    mmh Established Member

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    Do you have any anti-HS2 quotes from him to share?

    An admittedly cursory check of commons votes on HS2 shows he's never voted on it. Which makes sense, he was Mayor of London while it was going through Parliament. Did he give any opinion at the time?
     
    Last edited: 21 Aug 2019
  22. sharpley

    sharpley Member

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    Its only a few miles from East Midlands Hub to East Midlands Parkway, which hasn't exactly been a great success. You'd have thought they'd have learnt their lesson.

    They should have just labelled EMH as Nottingham instead. EMH to Euston is 52 minutes as per the HS2 website, so its no use to Leicester as once you add a train journey from there to EMH, its a longer journey than the existing fastest LEI -STP on the MML. Train / Tram into Derby and Nottingham will probably add another 15 mins or so to a journey into their city centres. High speed services should go from city centre to city centre, not leave you having to change to a local service to complete the final 5 miles.
     
  23. thenorthern

    thenorthern Established Member

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    Back in 2017 at the election I bumped into Chris Grayling at Stoke-on-Trent station who was campaigning there saying there was no reason why HS2 can't be re-routed to serve the city, since the election there has been no mention of HS2 in Stoke-on-Trent or the new Tramway system he proposed. It seems that HS2 is going to dig up Staffordshire more than most counties it runs through but at the same time not serve it, I fail to see how Staffordshire will benefit from HS2.

    There is talk of extending the Nottingham Express Transit to there but even then it will still be more than half an hour to Nottingham City Centre which given passengers would need to change to get to Nottingham I can't see it being that beneficial.

    Not sure how an East Midlands Hub is going to have a link to Derby and for Leicester I think HS2 is entirely useless.

    Lets not forget though its the East Midlands and the Government hates the East Midlands so not a lot of sensible planning is going into it.
     
  24. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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    You could finish the sentence there, and it'd still be pretty accurate!
     
  25. ainsworth74

    ainsworth74 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    I don't think we need more Brexit chat on this thread. The one we have in General Discussion is more than sufficient!
     
  26. ivanhoe

    ivanhoe Member

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    Couldn't agree more.
     
  27. Glenn1969

    Glenn1969 Member

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    I agree. HS2 should have been started at the same time as HS1. If not before
     
  28. shakey1961

    shakey1961 Member

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    I don't know if this has been mentioned in this thread as I've not read through the 8 pages so far. I will admit I am far from being an expert or have all the knowledge about HS2, but we are talking about spending the thick end of nearly £100 billion on this project to slice just 20 minutes of a journey time between London and Birmingham. Are people that bothered about a miserly 20 minutes? The UK is a smaller country than France or Germany or any of the EU countries so I don't believe we need such a high-speed rail network.

    Wouldn't some of the money be better spent on upgrading our present infrastructure?
    1. Upgrade the WCML to enable the Pendolinos to reach their maximum speed they were designed for at 140mph.
    2. Straighten out the WCML to enable number one above. Build the new straighter track alongside the WCML, therefore, less or no disruption to the present services

    What time saving would that gain? 10 minutes maybe? I have no idea. I do feel my two suggestions above would cost a lot less than HS2.

    With high-speed internet and a connected society, do people (and I'm thinking of business people) really have to make these journeys in the first place?
     
    Last edited: 21 Aug 2019
  29. 6Gman

    6Gman Established Member

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    People in the far NW of the county will find Crewe a very useful railhead.

    Won't Stafford be able to use the southern part? (And, potentially, Stoke too ...) EDIT: having checked Stafford-Euston reduced from 75 mins to 53 mins.

    Lichfield and Tamworth will benefit from released capacity on the WCML.
     
    Last edited: 21 Aug 2019
  30. Railman

    Railman Member

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    Maybe we should run a poll to see what people think is the most likely outcome.

    1 Scrap altogether
    2 London to Birmingham only
    3 London to Birmingham/Crewe only
    4 The full monty with an open cheque book
    5 options 2 or 3 but at existing TGV speeds and alignment/route tweeks
     
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