Government - Increase use of public transport

[cle]

Out of interest, have you been there? Other than in the Verbund (like a PTE) areas integration is nowhere near as good as you suggest in practice.

The Netherlands is similar - indeed, until the OV-Chipkaart NS was totally separate from bus fares.

Yep hundreds of times, family live there - and that is not my experience at all. SBB is national, with a few quirky exceptions but nothing important, and the annual cards most people have (can be paid monthly if needed) cover trams and bus, in addition to rail.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yep hundreds of times, family live there - and that is not my experience at all. SBB is national, with a few quirky exceptions but nothing important, and the annual cards most people have (can be paid monthly if needed) cover trams and bus, in addition to rail.

Yes, the GA is a nice product, though it's more equivalent to a pass covering say the North of England rather than a full-UK one. However, this sort of pass exists in the UK PTE areas as well. If you're buying singles or returns, integration is nowhere near as good between SBB and others.

 

[urbophile]

I suspect many of the pre-Covid-19 promises may be deferred or cancelled.

HS2 - maybe?

There will surely be more need, not less, for radical measures to make public transport more effective. (Whether that includes HS2 is another matter).

 

[Meerkat]

There will surely be more need, not less, for radical measures to make public transport more effective. (Whether that includes HS2 is another matter).

HS2 would be kept for the fiscal stimulus surely?
In fact if a recession drops construction prices it might be worth getting some more stuff done!

 

[cle]

Yes, the GA is a nice product, though it's more equivalent to a pass covering say the North of England rather than a full-UK one. However, this sort of pass exists in the UK PTE areas as well. If you're buying singles or returns, integration is nowhere near as good between SBB and others.

The Manchester one (County Pass) doesn't cover trams outside of the centre zone, and not all buses - for instance. It's not quite the same. Plus people barely know about them.

 

[HowardGWR]

Thee opportunity to combine green environmental policy with economic stimulus has never been greater. However, reducing the need to travel is going to be difficult when so much of our economy is dependent on tourism, as well as business travel. I don't see the need for HS2 diminishing, given that we will probably forcing much more freight from road onto the WCML via the spine from Southampton and the line from Felixstowe to Nuneaton. That makes the case for HS2 much stronger, as well.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Manchester one (County Pass) doesn't cover trams outside of the centre zone, and not all buses - for instance. It's not quite the same. Plus people barely know about them.

Depends on the area. In London everyone uses Oyster/contactless these days, and those who don't are using Travelcards. And the PTE seasons are well-known and well-used on Merseyside.

 

[sbf kent]

I am not sure that traffic will ever fully recover from the pre corona levels, companies will restrict business travel (for budget reasons), less travel for commuting (talk of up to 40 per cent working from home) , less travel for leisure, on some routes. I think there will at least be a pause and re assessment of HST2...that said the stimulus may well be needed, but the finances may have to be done in a very different way...and which operator would take it on? they will all be concerned about their home markets

 

[The Ham]

I am not sure that traffic will ever fully recover from the pre corona levels, companies will restrict business travel (for budget reasons), less travel for commuting (talk of up to 40 per cent working from home) , less travel for leisure, on some routes. I think there will at least be a pause and re assessment of HST2...that said the stimulus may well be needed, but the finances may have to be done in a very different way...and which operator would take it on? they will all be concerned about their home markets

Interestingly there's an agreement that cutting car usage would result in more rail use than would be lost from the traditional rail users.

For instance rail is 10% of a.domestic travel whilst cars are 80%, that means a 2.5% shift from car to rail would offset a 20% fall in rail use.

 

[Bald Rick]

Interestingly there's an agreement that cutting car usage would result in more rail use than would be lost from the traditional rail users.

Agreement by whom?

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

Agreement by whom?

Rail enthusiasts who believe non-rail enthusiasts will be willing to give up the convenience and lifestyle cars have given them.. I'll believe it when I see it. I have not heard of anyone stating they will be using their car less in favour of rail.

 

[PG]

I have not heard of anyone stating they will be using their car less in favour of rail.

Maybe not yet but if people's circumstances change post Covid-19 e.g. two car household going down to a single car due to reduced income there could well be a decision to use rail more.

 

[The Ham]

Maybe not yet but if people's circumstances change post Covid-19 e.g. two car household going down to a single car due to reduced income there could well be a decision to use rail more.

Indeed, also if there's an increase in working from home this could also reduce the number of cars.

As an example if there's a couple who both work from home two days a week then there'll only be one day a week (most weeks) where a second car would be needed to get to and from work. As such the justification for a second car would be harder to make.

For instance if currently each person pays £50 a week in fuel driving 5 days a week (£100 total), if this changes to one car with one person using public transport to get to work on the days where they both need to be in the office this could change to £50 for fuel and £15 in public transport costs (£65 total) or £30 each in fuel costs (£60 total). Now whilst the cost of using public transport would appear to be higher the upfront costs aren't included in the above and so are likely to be a lot more than the £260 which the above would require.

As such there would be some for whom a second car wouldn't be justified.

As I've highlighted before, given that 80% of travel is done by car, even small numbers changing would be able to offset reductions in rail use due to working from home, as rail is only 10% of travel.

However that's just the impact on working, without two cars there'll be some leisure travel which would then need to be undertaken by public transport as well.

There's also the fact that the longer this goes on the more accustomed to getting things delivered and so won't be so inclined to using physical shops. With people working from home they are more likely to be home to receive the delivery, which is often cited as a reason as to why people don't like ordering things.

Even parents with a stay at home adult who need a car for certain clubs/after school activities could have the working parent working from home on the days of those clubs/activities, so as to remove the need for a second car.

The more changes that there are, even if this unfortunately results in some people having lost their jobs, the more likely it will be that there'll be changes to the way we travel. Whilst that's going to change every mode of travel the modes which are most likely to see the biggest losses are air travel and car usage.

Things like cycling and walking are likely to see an uplift, especially given that people will have got used to doing so with quiet roads, so will know what life with a reduction in cars could be quite nice and so may be more inclined to try and keep it that way.

A 10% drop in car usage would make the roads feel like the school holidays all the time, where there's hardly any congestion in many areas (tourist areas obviously see an increase and so often see more congestion).

 

[Bald Rick]

Indeed, also if there's an increase in working from home this could also reduce the number of cars.

As an example if there's a couple who both work from home two days a week then there'll only be one day a week (most weeks) where a second car would be needed to get to and from work. As such the justification for a second car would be harder to make.

For instance if currently each person pays £50 a week in fuel driving 5 days a week (£100 total), if this changes to one car with one person using public transport to get to work on the days where they both need to be in the office this could change to £50 for fuel and £15 in public transport costs (£65 total) or £30 each in fuel costs (£60 total). Now whilst the cost of using public transport would appear to be higher the upfront costs aren't included in the above and so are likely to be a lot more than the £260 which the above would require.

As such there would be some for whom a second car wouldn't be justified.

As I've highlighted before, given that 80% of travel is done by car, even small numbers changing would be able to offset reductions in rail use due to working from home, as rail is only 10% of travel.

However that's just the impact on working, without two cars there'll be some leisure travel which would then need to be undertaken by public transport as well.

There's also the fact that the longer this goes on the more accustomed to getting things delivered and so won't be so inclined to using physical shops. With people working from home they are more likely to be home to receive the delivery, which is often cited as a reason as to why people don't like ordering things.

Even parents with a stay at home adult who need a car for certain clubs/after school activities could have the working parent working from home on the days of those clubs/activities, so as to remove the need for a second car.

The more changes that there are, even if this unfortunately results in some people having lost their jobs, the more likely it will be that there'll be changes to the way we travel. Whilst that's going to change every mode of travel the modes which are most likely to see the biggest losses are air travel and car usage.

Things like cycling and walking are likely to see an uplift, especially given that people will have got used to doing so with quiet roads, so will know what life with a reduction in cars could be quite nice and so may be more inclined to try and keep it that way.

A 10% drop in car usage would make the roads feel like the school holidays all the time, where there's hardly any congestion in many areas (tourist areas obviously see an increase and so often see more congestion).

I’m sorry, this is wibble.

Yes people will give up second cars. Yes road use will go down. But it doesn’t mean that those people will switch even a small proportion of their trips to rail, and neither does it mean it will back fill the likely fall in demand for rail in the short / medium term. Those are not linked events.

You could look at it another way. One of the reasons rail travel has grown significantly in recent years is that road congestion has got so bad, particularly into city centres (Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds are great examples), and also for medium to long distance travel, as anyone who uses the M1, M25, M6 (amongs tothers) will testify. The reduction in economic activity will reduce road congestion, which will increase the propensity of existing rail users to switch to their cars.

The trains will be very busy on some routes when the current lockdown ends as people all rush to see their loved ones that they have been isolated from for several months. However many routes will see significant reductions as a direct result of reduced economic activity.

 

[class26]

In all this talk about post Covid having changed things forever, no need for HS2 anymore etc etc we all need to remember that HS2 is for at least a century and more . For once this country is thinking long term and I nor anyone here can predict what travel demand will be in 10 years let alone 50 / 80 or 100 years.
Even IF, and it is a very large IF there is reduced travel demand we then need to factor in climate change and getting people out of cars and onto the rails for long distant journeys. HS2 does this more than any scheme is likely to do and it would be sheer folly to cancel it as any alternate scheme or smaller series of schemes which would probably need 10 years planning and the huge risk that some or all would get binned along the way ending up where we are now - rammed motorways with very low average speeds contributing to low productivity and of course climate change as our cars spew out CO2 whilst crawling in low gears.

 

[yorkie]

Recent posts in this thread have not been on the subject of the Decarbonising Transport report and have in fact been discussing topics which are also under discussion elsewhere, such as:

• Stone's Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash wants HS2 to be cancelled to benefit the Health service
• Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut
• Poll: Your predicted train travelling habits after Covid-19
• Travel habits after COVID-19
• Long term workplace changes following covid19
• Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways

If anyone wishes to discuss any of the above topics, please use the relevant thread.

If anyone wishes to discuss the actual Decarbonising Transport report, feel free to reply below.

To discuss anything not covered by any of the above, please create a new thread (if there isn't one already)