would not be surprised if GWR's new express services have killed off the argument for a open access operator to run this route
It doesn't appear so. A letter written by Grand Union Trains' MD uploaded to the
ORR website states that work is ongoing. The letter is undated, but it's responding to a Network Rail letter dated December 2019.
Apparently, of the 12 (out of 14) train slots that GUT have so far provided to NR, only 9 slots can be accommodated within the December 19 timetable and 5 of those would require "significant changes to multiple services operated by Great Western and Freight Operators".
The consultation responses to the Section 17 application (i.e. an application for a disputed contract) have also been published by the ORR. Unsurprisingly, there is a large list of objections including Cross Country, Department for Transport, Freightliner, GWR, Transport for Wales, MTR Crossrail, Transport for London and DB Cargo. GO-Op and GB Railfreight also offered conditional objections. The objections themselves include
- Concerns around performance and capacity, particularly the desire to provide a clock-face timetable
- The long term granting of paths while other TOCs/FOCs have been refused firm paths beyond 2020
- Location of the depot
- The requirement to fit ATP to the Class 91s for 125mph operation of the GWML
- Fare abstraction
- Compatibility of Class 91 with the Great Western Main Line OLE (apparently NR believe that some electrical emissions may be out of spec for the GWML)
- Lack of firm date to electrify the Severn Tunnel
- Lack of electrified diversion routes
- Platform capacity at London Paddington and Cardiff Central
GUT's responses to these objections are also published, which mainly consist of GUT saying "that's what's always said to a Open Access application".
I've no idea how much weight the ORR will place on these objections or to GUT's responses. There is also the Economic Equilibrium Test that the ORR will be undertaking to decide if the application will have an undue effect on a government contract. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.