The Class 802s are needed to fit in and around the IEP (Class 800 and Class 801) units on the GWML out of Paddington down to Newbury.
HST sets don't work in terms of acceleration and pathing particularly well, and any failures will be difficult to recover with fewer sets around and the probability of IEP sets in the intervening signalling sections.
It is almost certainly true that the AT300 series units will accelerate faster, at least under the wires, than IC125s. But this was, apparently, not considered too great a problem from August 2011 (when I'm sure Modern Railways stated that IC125s would remain on the PAD-Plymouth/Penzance services, with IEP on the Oxford/Bristol/Swansea routes) to shortly before the new franchise agreement which brought the branding change to G
WR. Even when that deal was introduced, there were two Service Level Commitment options for post-2018, the first of which assumed continued operation of IC125s on the PAD-PLY/PNZ route. I seem to recall reading on one forum or other that it had been decided the power-door mrk3s were unaffordable and hence the order for class 802s.
At a time of rapidly increasing passenger numbers it seems rather odd to be actively reducing train lengths.
If the HST coaches can be affordably modified as described, then it would seem to be worth modifying a greater number of vehicles so as to keep full length trains.
With some rebuilt, full length HSTs AND the new stock, the railway might even be able to cope at busy times.
This is exactly my point, rather than reducing train lengths to 5-car class 802 on many PAD-PLY/PNZ services, I feel the 2+8 IC125s should be retained on the PAD-PLY/PNZ route. That August 2011 Modern Railways also stated that stakeholders did not want the underfloor-engined class 222 units for such a long route, so it makes more sense to me to use the 5-car 800s and/or 802s on regional express services where fewer passengers will be going long distances and where 5 coaches is an increase in capacity, rather than a reduction as it would be on GW
INTERCITY routes.
I remember hearing that the GWR HST trailers were built slightly off and that it would therefore be more complicated to do the power door conversion versus later Mk3s. Could this mean that ScotRail's HSTs get the GWR treatment rather than the Chiltern one?
What I've read online (or perhaps in Modern Railways) is that ALL mark 3s are not built to exact dimensions and every one is slightly different (this was discovered while fitting the Chiltern ones with power-doors). That meant Chiltern-style mods were very time consuming and expensive, so FirstGWR decided they would have to order the 802s. However, then it turned out ScotRail had thought of a cheaper way of fitting the plug-doors, so presumably all future mrk3 plug-door convertions, whether of IC125 trailers or LHCS, will use the new technique and not be like Chiltern's. I could be wrong of course because I don't work in the rail industry.
I assume you are counting the whole IEP fleet not just the GWR fleet, if so your figures are out by quite a margin and you are being rather disingenuous
GW IEP is 18x 9-car sets and 32x 5-car sets diagrammed each day if I recall correctly. That's 322 diagrammed vehicles. That's diagrams, to resource that Agility Trains West will I think have a fleet of 21x 9-car and 36x 5-car, or 369 vehicles. That doesn't include the Plymouth/Penzance class 802 order, and on that basis I think it is an overall increase in capacity,
HOWEVER, much of the increase seems to be thanks to the planned doubling of frequency between London and Bristol Temple Meads to 4tph, other routes (at least based on the DfT's draft diagrams, which are apparently inoperable in some cases) such as London-Swansea
would see less capacity than today. According to Wikipedia, the class 802 fleet for GW is 173 vehicles, a total of 542 new vehicles across the Great Western fleet, but keep in mind that the class 802s are
NOT IEP units.
There's no running above 100mph in Scotland for the routes the short HST sets will be operating on (from memory). The same applies for the proposed HST routes under GWR operation.
There is some 110mph running on the Bristol-Taunton route I believe.
5 sets required for hourly Plymouth to Penzance stoppers. 2 sets for semi fast between the 802s between Plymouth and Cornwall and 3 for Cardiff to Taunton. 1 set spare. Some of these will work as through services between between Plymouth and Taunton In the morning and evenings
IC125s on stoppers, 5-car DMUs on IC routes and totally inappropriate 165s with 2+3 seating, no UEGs and 1/3, 2/3 doors on the franchise's premier regional express service :roll::cry::roll: (the latest Modern Railways states that all 166s will now stay at Reading depot, but doesn't mention what would run Cardiff-Portsmouth, so assume it is still planned to be Turbos). What a mess. Cardiff-Portsmouth needs 5-car end-door units,
INTERCITY routes mostly need 7-9 coaches and Networker Turbos should NEVER BE USED ON REGIONAL EXPRESS SERVICES.