Has the COVID Crisis changed our attitude to risk?

[Domh245]

See table on page 51 of this official document:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

2014-15 : 28,330
2015-16 : 11,875
2016-17 : 18,009
2017-18 : 26,408
2018-19 : 1,692

So the previous winter was *very* low historically.

The winter 2019-20 report has an increased number, as it has the entirety of 2018-19 rather than partial as in the report you linked. That said, it is still remarkably low - under 4000 in total. For comparison, by week 9 of this year we were up to almost 8000 (week 11 is when the first COVID deaths were registered)

 

[MikeWM]

The winter 2019-20 report has an increased number, as it has the entirety of 2018-19 rather than partial as in the report you linked. That said, it is still remarkably low - under 4000 in total.

This seems rather odd. The 2018-19 report claims it goes up to week 15 (ie. mid-April). Were there more flu deaths last summer than the previous winter? How does it more than double otherwise? Did they find they'd undercounted (by a factor of more than 2?!) later on?

(Is there a single Government statistic we can actually rely on?)

But yes, in any event, whatever the actual numbers, it is clear that 2018-19 was very mild.

 

[Domh245]

This seems rather odd. The 2018-19 report claims it goes up to week 15 (ie. mid-April). Were there more flu deaths last summer than the previous winter? How does it more than double otherwise? Did they find they'd undercounted (by a factor of more than 2?!) later on?

(Is there a single Government statistic we can actually rely on?)

Don't forget that those numbers aren't actual registered flu deaths, but estimates based on mortality data using algorithms developed by EuroMOMO. The model does show a fairly late peak in flu attributable excess deaths (fig 35), but it has also been revised upwards comparing the same graph between the 2 reports.

 

[MikeWM]

Don't forget that those numbers aren't actual registered flu deaths, but estimates based on mortality data using algorithms developed by EuroMOMO. The model does show a fairly late peak in flu attributable excess deaths (fig 35), but it has also been revised upwards comparing the same graph between the 2 reports.

This still seems odd though, for a number of reasons. Why was is revised upwards (by such a large amount)? Why not use the registered death information, rather than a model? And if you are using a model, why report such oddly precise numbers? I give up.

 

[Justin Smith]

Why has the world over reacted to Covid (shutting down half the world's economy for a virus which kills at most 1 in 200 people and we know even who is most at risk), and is it consistent ?

It is consistent : How many of us have seen pictures of rail tours from the 50s, 60s or even 70s with people riding in open wagons, or even on the engines, and certainly walking all over the track ? And the railway staff seem perfectly happy about it. These days, to many people, even thinking about it would be considered unacceptable.
And that's why the world's over reaction to Covid is perfectly consistent. The world, particularly the developed world, has to be seen to be doing everything to lessen the risk of death in every situation, regardless of balance. The effects on people's rights and freedoms (or just preventing them doing something they might really like doing) are very much of secondary importance.

It is inconsistent : Two to three thousand are killed on our roads every year. The government could do something to lessen that right now by introducing GPS speed limiters (so vehicles cannot break the limits) but they will not do so. Or they could have far more hidden speed cameras. But, ironically in view of what they are doing with regards to Covid, they refuse to do so because they seem persuaded that GPS speed limiters or hidden speed cameras would somehow be an invasion of people's rights.
And that's why the world's reaction to Covid is also totally inconsistent.

What is the explanation for the inconsistencies ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

One for its own thread to discuss more widely but GPS speed limiters are not viable yet, consumer GPS devices are not accurate enough. An accidental switch from 70 to 30 could cause a fatal collision.

 

[Justin Smith]

One for its own thread to discuss more widely but GPS speed limiters are not viable yet, consumer GPS devices are not accurate enough. An accidental switch from 70 to 30 could cause a fatal collision.

As far as I understand it GPS controlled speed limiter can be over ridden but a warning sounds and it is recorded on the car's black box when it happens.
It was that aspect that apparently the government listened to from all the motoring lobby (read Petrolheads), plus the made a big point about technically the car could be tracked which would be very big brother". And that was enough for the government to reject the idea. The same government that has enacted a series of restrictions on our live's which is without parallel in history, culminating in forcing me and my wife to wear a face mask to go in a shop or use public transport which we subsidise out of our back pockets.

The thread I started (which has been merged with this one) is not really about risk probability (as this one is) it's about inconsistency and how people's attitude to death and indeed health and safety has changed over the years. One wonders how far it will go, perhaps we're finding out now.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cars are already tracked anyway via the network of ANPR cameras. However, it's not done particularly well, as demonstrated by the fact that I drove about 400 miles this weekend in a car whose insurance policy was not recorded on the MID and was not stopped. (Don't worry, it was a new policy that hadn't gone on yet, it's on now - I had the certificate of insurance with me in case I had been stopped, as I was once before in similar circumstances, but I was surprised on a journey of that length not to be).

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Google gives in millions: FRANCE: 66. GERMANY: 83. HOLLAND: 11: USA: 330. AUSTRIA: 9. ITALY: 60 UK: 68

Are these figures national populations?

 

[LAX54]

Are these figures national populations?

They are the poulations in 2018 / 2019