Have all the HS2 decisions not gone in Manchester Airport's favour?

Discussion in 'Infrastructure & Stations' started by aformeruser, 24 Aug 2015.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. aformeruser

    aformeruser Veteran Member

    Messages:
    30,637
    Joined:
    23 Jan 2009
    All the HS2 decisions seem to have gone in Manchester Airport's favour:

    • Dropping a station at Heathrow reduces the chance people switching from connecting Manchester-Heathow flights to rail when they want a destination Manchester doesn't offer.
    • Not going ahead with the link between HS1 and HS2 means it's not possible to have direct services between the North and Europe which makes using rail over air a less attractive proposition.
    • A HS2 station at Manchester Airport has been given the go-ahead making it easier for Manchester Airport to expand it's target market.

    Have any decisions not gone in their favour?
     
  2. Registered users do not see these banners - join or log in today!

    Rail Forums

     
  3. Haydn1971

    Haydn1971 Established Member

    Messages:
    2,090
    Joined:
    11 Dec 2012
    Location:
    Sheffield

    It could be argued that the HS2 station isn't ideally placed for the terminals, being on the wrong side of the M56
     
  4. gordonthemoron

    gordonthemoron Established Member

    Messages:
    6,059
    Joined:
    4 Sep 2006
    Location:
    Milton Keynes
    how many of the manchester-london trains would have gone to Heathrow in anycase? Also, why would anyone want to travel between manchester airport and heathrow by train? Surely they're more likely to start at Picadilly?
     
  5. Camden

    Camden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,717
    Joined:
    30 Dec 2014
    I think the question could be more aptly put as "have all the HS2 decisions not gone in Manchester's favour?" Not least that the councils are majority owners of the airport.

    A station with marginal to no business case (check the HS2 documents) gets the go ahead, even having its importance spoken about in the face of this marginal to no business case. So I think the airport station I think is just a symptom of something wider.
     
  6. aformeruser

    aformeruser Veteran Member

    Messages:
    30,637
    Joined:
    23 Jan 2009
    I was meaning direct services from the North to Heathrow not between the two Airports.
     
  7. Haydn1971

    Haydn1971 Established Member

    Messages:
    2,090
    Joined:
    11 Dec 2012
    Location:
    Sheffield

    I'm still staggered that Manchester Airport gets a station, yet Heathrow doesn't
     
  8. aformeruser

    aformeruser Veteran Member

    Messages:
    30,637
    Joined:
    23 Jan 2009
    Surely Manchester as a city would have benefitted from direct rail services to Europe, whilethe lack of them benefits the Airport.
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    It`s proposed a Metrolink line will link the station to the Airport, so it probably won`t be any worse for Airport usage than Birmingham International.
     
  9. deltic

    deltic Established Member

    Messages:
    2,041
    Joined:
    8 Feb 2010
    THe $64000 question is whether Manchester Airport will actually get a station. The airport stations were requested by someone who seemed to have little understanding of the rail/air market. If more than a handful of air passengers actually interchange on to HS2 I will be very surprised.

    Manchester airport HS2 station effectively takes on the role of Stockport and Crewe serving wealthy south Manchester and Cheshire. If a Crewe HS2 station goes ahead then demand at Manchester airport will reduce and scrapping it could be seen as easy saving of a few £100m on a project that needs all the savings it can get.
     
  10. Haydn1971

    Haydn1971 Established Member

    Messages:
    2,090
    Joined:
    11 Dec 2012
    Location:
    Sheffield

    That's a very good point actually, Stage 2 is still very much up in the air... Pardon the pun ;)
     
  11. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

    Messages:
    10,694
    Joined:
    14 Jul 2011
    Crewe station is, if it were possible, worth even less than a Manchester Airport station.

    Manchester Airport station is essentially a South Manchester station that happens to be near the airport.
     
  12. Camden

    Camden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,717
    Joined:
    30 Dec 2014
    Don't see how that can be the case, it is at least an interchange. There are an awful lot of places in the north and north midlands that hs2 doesn't serve. Through Crewe they will have opportunity to switch to a hs2 train. Other than as a poor relation to todays Wilmslow or Stockport, or a vanity badge for greater manchester to wear, it's hard to see what fudge of a purpose a Manchester airport station would actually fulfil.
     
  13. The Planner

    The Planner Established Member

    Messages:
    9,617
    Joined:
    15 Apr 2008
    Much greater chance of Crewe than the airport station.
     
  14. tbtc

    tbtc Veteran Member

    Messages:
    15,817
    Joined:
    16 Dec 2008
    Location:
    Yorkshire, Yorkshire, Yorkshire
    I've criticised the over-provision of "conventional" trains to Manchester Airport a few times (nine an hour with an average loading of under thirty five passengers, the seeming need for every town/ city to have a direct link yada yada yada)...

    ...BUT an HS2 station there makes a lot of sense.

    The population/ affluence means that a station around Cheshire has a case. And Manchester Airport has a decent amount of people (and sufficient people with the right demographics to travel to London fairly regularly) - within fifteen miles you've got Macclesfield/ Stockport/ Warrington etc.

    Like Meadowhall, it's convenient for the Motorway network (call it "South Manchester Parkway" if you want)

    Like Meadowhall, it's convenient for the trams

    Like Meadowhall, it's convenient for "local" trains

    Like Meadowhall, it's got a coach/ bus station

    Ticks all the boxes in that respect.

    The alternatives have a few downsides. It'd be ridiculously expensive to try to thread HS2 through Stockport (given the Mersey/ M60/ viaduct and all of the built up areas). For me, it's the Airport or Crewe.

    Crewe probably shades it (though probably has fewer people living near by, less suited for the motorways), but I think the Airport deserves consideration.

    As for the OP's other comments... I take your point regarding the desirability to Manchester Airport of not having pesky direct trains from northern England to "the continent" that would compete with air.

    However the number of air passengers from Manchester Airport to Heathrow are pretty insignificant compared to the number of seats on 400m trains departing Manchester every hour on HS2.

    Whilst domestic flights like these are an environmental nonsense that I wouldn't want to encourage, I don't know how much money to throw at a rail alternative to try to eliminate this market. There are always going to be some people who'll pay daft money for the simplicity of a connecting flight (compared to changing to a different mode of transport). Ridiculous (in environmental terms), but fairly trivial compared to the twenty million air passengers a year (at Manchester Airport) and potentially thousands of train seats an hour between the cities. Sledgehammers and nuts?

    Don't worry, I'm not defending the over-provision of services to Manchester Airport in 2015 (how many empty seats an hour?), but I think that it has merit as location for an HS2 station.
     
  15. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

    Messages:
    10,694
    Joined:
    14 Jul 2011
    And yet I am constantly told that changing trains is an anaethema which is why we are lumbering HS2 with all these expensive low capacity classic compatible sets.
    It can abstract the majority of the south Manchester traffic that currently routes througH Wilmslow and Stockport (if appropriate onward connections on Metrolink and buses are put in place).

    This would allow ICWC route rationalisation to jettison the Wilmslow service, which saves a whole path, and probably fold the other two Manchester trains into one.

    Saving two WCML paths just like that.
     
  16. Xenophon PCDGS

    Xenophon PCDGS Veteran Member

    Messages:
    26,236
    Joined:
    17 Apr 2011
    Location:
    A semi-rural part of north-west England
    Have you not seen the plans for the vast expansion of the Manchester Airport Business Park project. The Chinese seem to feel that it is well worth investing extremely large amounts of finance in that particular project. The HS2 station will be to serve that specific project with many international companies interested in this project.

    Perhaps, like you, those charged with the writing of HS2 documents appeared naively blissfully unaware of this coming project.
     
  17. CheshireCrusty

    CheshireCrusty Member

    Messages:
    80
    Joined:
    6 Feb 2014
    That is all well and good except that the proposed HS2 station is over a mile away from the business park with no currently proposed rail/tram links and is on the other side of both the M56 motorway and the airport spur road links. The present MIA station is right in the centre of the business park site, is 13 minutes out of MAN Piccadilly, and has existing direct services to most northern cities plus Crewe. It is likely the time taken to transfer from the proposed HS2 station to the business park means it would be faster to remain on HS2 to Piccadilly and then transfer back to MIA.

    Barring a loop to the North being suggested for a Scottish High Speed service, I understand the only service provided by the HS2 Manchester Airport station would be to London which is currently served from MIA by interchange at Wilmslow. There is also a bus running right through the business park site to Wilmslow Station.

    While I expect there would be a bus service of some sort serving an airport HS2 station, this is more than likely to be by an extension/rerouting of an existing bus service to the airport bus station (adjacent to MIA). I also understand there has been a suggestion of a further extension of Metrolink to serve the HS2 station, but that would seem difficult to justify given the low passenger volumes using the Wythenshawe line to MIA. I also doubt a service bus or a tram would be an attractive journey completion option for a high revenue yielding HS2 passenger and taxi or car would be the most likely end of journey option, whether to the Business Park or any other destination.

    The proposed west of M56 HS2 station would however be an unattractive option for car users given that rail users would essentially be using the same road access and parking facilities as airport travellers (existing surface airport car parks are already geographically spread over a much wider area). Airport car parks are viewed as very high cost compared to those at rail stations (say £20 p.d. vs £5). Although the local "junction improvements" off the M56 being planned for the "logistics hub" to the South of the Airport would also help improve access to the HS2 station, the surrounding roads are already heavily congested - meaning the road journey times to an Airport HS2 station are likely to be longer for most South Manchester/ North Cheshire residents than the combined road journey to their local station plus the rail journey to Piccadilly or Crewe (let alone using legacy WCML services at Stockport / Wilmslow / Macclesfield / Warrington).

    Therefore in my view a Manchester Airport HS2 station would be a "white elephant" unless it was located adjacent to the existing MIA station with its interchange facilities and in the business park.
     
  18. fowler9

    fowler9 Established Member

    Messages:
    8,365
    Joined:
    29 Oct 2013
    Location:
    Liverpool
    As a resident of Liverpool would I use HS2 to get to Europe if it stopped at Crewe, no. If HS2 stopped at Manchester Airport would I use it to get to Europe, no. In fact if HS2 stopped anywhere other than Liverpool would I use it to get anywhere, no, unless the fare was really cheap which I imagine it won't be.

    Just to add something to this, if as I did recently I was taking an intercontinental flight via Heathrow would I start in Manchester again by plane as it cost no more money. Yes. Would I get myself to Manchester to get a train to London to catch a plane, yes if it cost nothing which I doubt it would. Would I get a train to Manchester to get a train to Europe, no, I doubt it would be cost or time effective in a million years.

    Unless train fares on HS2 were stupid cheap I could never see myself changing at Crewe on a train from Liverpool to go anywhere. I am sure I am not part of the demographic it is being pitched at though. I am sure if the money is being forked out to build it the train fares will not be stupid cheap.
     
    Last edited: 25 Aug 2015
  19. aformeruser

    aformeruser Veteran Member

    Messages:
    30,637
    Joined:
    23 Jan 2009
    There were 876,597 Manchester to Heathrow passengers in 2014 or, on average, just over 2400 per day. I'm not saying they would have all transferred to HS2 had Heathrow station been included but there would have been quite a bit potential market there.

    The thing to note is to get to the local trains/buses and coaches you'll need to make a journey on Metrolink, which may not make it attractive to some people unless they've got cars - take people in places like Cheadle Hulme, Wilmslow and Alderley Edge.
     
  20. Camden

    Camden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,717
    Joined:
    30 Dec 2014
    Not at all blissfully unaware, however I think it's highly revisionist to talk about this as a justification for hs2. Airport City (which is its name) has only come into its own as a thing over the past year or so, whereas hs2 has been planned in some form (and basically unchanged in form) since the start of the millennium. It's conjecture as to how much business such a development will actually create, and if you turn on your tv news even how much Chinese investment will come pouring in in the first place. If we're building hs2 on punts, I think there are better ones out there.

    Can't think who is telling you this, my understanding is that classic compatible trains are being used so that large cities can have an intercity service that utilises HS2 so that it doesn't just serve a few places (although in reality it does just serve a few places).

    It's obtuse to ignore that the people who would be changing at Crewe to get aboard a much faster service would be people coming from places that wouldn't have any classic compatible services, connecting in from places like Chester.
    No I'm sure none of our train fares are going to be stupidly cheap in the future, with all this to pay for.
     
    Last edited: 25 Aug 2015
  21. CdBrux

    CdBrux Member

    Messages:
    565
    Joined:
    4 Mar 2014
    Location:
    Munich
    A few points to make:
    1. As has been said the station for the people who would today travel to Stockport or Wilmslow station, maybe even some Macclesfield station people as well, to get a WCML train south. I think the plans include a large car park. The airport city will maybe attract some passengers from the south to alight there for business. I can imagine actual people flying to / from airport would be 4th on the list.

    2. Although 'wrong' side of the M56 a quick shuttle bus or tram extension (planned) would get people to the terminals if that was their destination. Something like this can also serve the airport city business park. Maybe if the station was closer to the airport then it would take land allocated for the airpot city / logistics business park?

    3. The incremental cost to build the station is to be paid for by Manchester Airport, not HS2.

    Points 1 & 2 don't seem in general concept so different to Birmingham interchange.

    As for the lack of a Heathrow spur or HS1 link then I think those topics have been done to death here and a majority would think both are the right decision for HS2 and that is why they have been taken.
     
  22. deltic

    deltic Established Member

    Messages:
    2,041
    Joined:
    8 Feb 2010
    I have seen a reference to the airport and wider region making a contribution towards the cost of the station but not that it will pay for the whole thing. Interested to see if the airport will actually fund the lot plus any metrolink extension.
     
  23. CdBrux

    CdBrux Member

    Messages:
    565
    Joined:
    4 Mar 2014
    Location:
    Munich

    You could be right, after your comment I had a quick search and found a couple of similar 'official' documents, although the most recent is over a year old. For sure any metrolink work would not come from HS2 budget and I am quite certain if a suitable ammount of funding (from which I have understood most of the funding) does not come locally then it will not happen. This is a key passage from a Manchester City Council meeting briefing:

    http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...fJp6gI&usg=AFQjCNHTHRzwUwMHkkPprH-gs16-V-SSrQ



    and this from an older factsheet (2013 - so things may well have changed!)

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ster_Airport_High_Speed_station_factsheet.pdf
     
  24. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

    Messages:
    10,694
    Joined:
    14 Jul 2011
    But the easiest way to make HS2 pay for itself is to make the fares stupidly cheap.

    HS2 has no reason to constrain demand because it has enormous capacity - especially if they wise up and put double-decks on it.
    Low staffing costs, low energy cost per passenger-mile, highly efficient modern design for the trackwork and stations and no idiotic subsidy junkie freight to get in the way.

    The marginal cost for a seat on HS2 from Manchester to London will be lower than for the conventional line.
    And given it has essentially unlimited capacity the best way to amortise away the capital cost is to pile em high and sell em cheap.
     
  25. Camden

    Camden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,717
    Joined:
    30 Dec 2014
    That's a bit naive isn't it? £50 bill plus running costs, minus fares equals...

    The ratio used to calculate whether rail projects are ok to go ahead had to include the mystical "wider economic impacts" in order to get the figure above 2, and of course that has to forecast how much money it can pull in versus how much it will take off other services. Over how many years is that ratio calculated... a lot... and even with the massive political will to do this it still hasn't managed to top 2? Come off it. And there is hs1 to show what happens to make the rest of us non users play ball.

    You are probably a bit right though that the marginal cost for a seat on hs2 may cost less than one on the conventional line.. but only because the conventional line seat goes up in terms of subsidy required to keep it with demand abstracted all over the place. Loads of places are going to see their fast services get slower or cease, just to indulge a purely political vanity project, and we will end up paying a price for hs2.
     
  26. Philip C

    Philip C Member

    Messages:
    407
    Joined:
    21 Feb 2013
    I am hereby committing myself to meeting the £50 cost of building the new HS2 station at Manchester Airport. If anyone would like to have one in their vicinity I'd be happy to pay for a second one, at that price, too! :D
     
  27. Camden

    Camden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,717
    Joined:
    30 Dec 2014
    Funny
     
  28. NotATrainspott

    NotATrainspott Established Member

    Messages:
    2,880
    Joined:
    2 Feb 2013
    The BCR calculations for HS2 include ending all passenger growth in the mid-2030s. That seems unlikely given our current experience and what reasons people travel at the moment. Even if the labour market changes massively with automation, the sorts of passengers who are predicted to use HS2 will still be around, and there will be many more of the leisure passengers.

    Camden, get your head out of the sand and look at current passenger growth on long distances services. Extrapolate the figures out to the HS2 opening date, even assuming that the rate of growth will diminish with time, and tell us whether it's a good idea to add a lot of extra capacity to the north-south rail network or not.
     
  29. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

    Messages:
    10,694
    Joined:
    14 Jul 2011
    Subsidy is irrelevant - and for the record ICWC is already guzzling subsidy money.
    A HS2 set requires precisely one safety critical crew member for up to 1300 seats - as opposed to 2 for 590 or so on a Pendo. At 320-330km/h a TGV Duplex 2N2 uses a similar energy per seat kilometre to said Pendo at 200km/h (Pendos are heaaaaavy).
    The services can be run far more intensely - the cost of HS2 per seat available per year is probably less than the WCML was made to cost by the WCRM.

    And as to those 'loads of places' there are loads of places - but most of them have almost no people.


    Lets say it costs £50bn - the marginal costs of a captive train journey to Birmingham or Manchester or Leeds are about £7 to £10 per round trip.
    Let's say you charged that plus ten pounds per round trip for capital cost - at that rate you are going to get very high loadings even on a first come first served basis. (£17-20 pounds per round trip for that journey at that speed? They will bite your hand off)
    Over 100% on average is not unreasonable as its only an hour to stand.

    That is close to 76 million passengers in each direction per year - so 76 million round trips, just for captives.
    That's £760 million per year.

    Over a 60 year lifetime of the project you will rack up well over £45bn - if you uprate tickets with inflation then you can take advantage of the fact that long term index linked gilts have negative interest rates.

    That calculation also assumes CC trains make no contribution to capital costs at all - which is highly conservative.
     
    Last edited: 26 Aug 2015
  30. Xenophon PCDGS

    Xenophon PCDGS Veteran Member

    Messages:
    26,236
    Joined:
    17 Apr 2011
    Location:
    A semi-rural part of north-west England
    I feel it would be useful for you to see the exact area of Airport City rather than of the existing business park.
     
  31. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

    Messages:
    6,741
    Joined:
    6 Jul 2012
    Quite, HS2 was designed based on 2.5% year on year growth between 2009 and mid 2030's, which is a significantly lower growth rate than we have between 2009 and now.

    Linked with this the assumption made in a HS2 document (not that I can recall where I found it) was that without HS2 the total growth between 2011 and mid 2030's was about 40% (which works out at 1.32% per year, i.e. much lower than the main growth factor for the rest of the network) between London and Birmingham, however as the table 2 here shows passenger growth from the west midlands area has grown about 19% already since 2011. In other words about half of all the assumed growth between London and Birmingham has probably already happened with little sign of slowing down.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page