Heading into autumn - what next?

[nlogax]

I hope you are right about getting rid of the testing for foreign travel etc. Especially the Return Antigen things, given not many other countries are wanting one for us to enter. How can it be harder to get into my own country, than Poland for example. Especially if jabbed.

It's one that really baffles me. Just trying to sort out what tests I need for returning from a green list country in October.. quite frankly I think it'd be easier to stay on holiday and not return.

 

[greyman42]

It's one that really baffles me. Just trying to sort out what tests I need for returning from a green list country in October.. quite frankly I think it'd be easier to stay on holiday and not return.

Or just not bother going abroad at the moment.

 

[Ianno87]

Or just not bother going abroad at the moment.

Personally, I'm writing foreign travel off until well into 2022.

 

[WestRiding]

Or just not bother going abroad at the moment.

Balls to that. Sick of what's approaching 2 years stuck in this country. Its made me realise how small the UK is, and I've been touring it for the last 36 years alongside foreign travel.

 

[nlogax]

Or just not bother going abroad at the moment.

No, I'm getting away. First time overseas in eighteen months and I cannot bloody wait. It's just the Covid-related admin that winds me up. It's all so needless.

 

[3rd rail land]

No, I'm getting away. First time overseas in eighteen months and I cannot bloody wait. It's just the Covid-related admin that winds me up. It's all so needless.

Got to agree. The requirements are simply not clear enough which is frustrating to say the least. It's worth it for a decent overseas holiday though.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I've been reflecting on this theme a lot over the past few days. What is quite interesting, is friends and colleagues who have been very pro-restrictions are now fed up - they want to get back to normal life. Very much an attitude of - vaccine out, in arms, back to some form of normality. Even I, being relatively covid confident for the past year or so, have been shocked at the 'normality' on display in the likes of London, Reading and Oxford, my local area. Hopefully this might give politicians some pause for thought before bringing restrictions back.

I think lockdowns have not been resisted on a larger scale in this country because either through political design or Police not up to the job, the enforcement was never severe enough to really nark off the large middle class we have in this country (and I freely admit to being part of the middle classes in the UK....). There is an attitude amongst a lot of middle England, particularly down here in the south, of 'rules for thee, but not for me'. The victims of enforcement and hostile policing were mostly ethnic minorities or young people/students who do not 'matter' politically in this country - until the police push their luck too far. Australian style enforcement would have pushed a lot of the middle class into 'irked' territory - you saw shades of this with the heavy handed response to the Sarah Everard protests and in my view would have changed much of the attitude. Now whether the police are even capable of that kind of enforcement in the UK is another matter - I'm sure the urban police forces can put on a 'show' in concentrated areas with public order units but enough people decided they weren't playing ball, that would be it.

I'm pleasantly surprised at the infection rates in the UK at the moment. I suspect Scotland might try something this winter, but it will be interesting to see whether Sunak stumps up any cash. My native Wales will probably follow whatever Scotland does. England? Would not surprise me if non-Tory areas are victims of some botched tier system. I think something would have to go very wrong for a full lockdown, but then we don't have a rational government. However, normal politics seems to be returning and there are major issues on the brew outside covid which may focus the minds. If I put my most cynical cap on, I would not be surprised if Russia, China, or extremists use a weakened West to cause a major nuisance that will hole covid as a news topic below the waterline, but that is probably a matter for a different forum section!!!!!

 

[quantinghome]

You tell me!

You're the one claiming that additional borrowing is a major issue. I assumed (wrongly as it appears) you might have checked how much the interest payments would be, to back up your assertion.

"Its OK, we have massively overspent way beyond our budget but the interest rates are low so its all good". Said no-one, ever

Seriously, do you really believe there will be no effect from increasing public sector debt by the amount we have?

It depends how the government responds. Public sector debt is largely debt the country owes to itself, and interest rates are extremely low, so there is no rational reason to pursue a major austerity programme. The government may well do so, but that is down to their dogmatic ideology rather than economic necessity. Economic growth, rather than belt tightening, has always been the thing that has reduced our debt levels over the long term, and the long term is how we need to look at debt. The last decade should be a lesson - all the spending cuts did nothing to 'fix the roof' and left us with public services that were unable to cope in an emergency.

 

[bramling]

You're the one claiming that additional borrowing is a major issue. I assumed (wrongly as it appears) you might have checked how much the interest payments would be, to back up your assertion.


It depends how the government responds. Public sector debt is largely debt the country owes to itself, and interest rates are extremely low, so there is no rational reason to pursue a major austerity programme. The government may well do so, but that is down to their dogmatic ideology rather than economic necessity. Economic growth, rather than belt tightening, has always been the thing that has reduced our debt levels over the long term, and the long term is how we need to look at debt. The last decade should be a lesson - all the spending cuts did nothing to 'fix the roof' and left us with public services that were unable to cope in an emergency.

We do now seem locked into a low interest rates setup, which isn’t great if the powers that be want to control inflation. That is already running higher than was hoped for, and seems to be showing little sign of calming. Once again those who have been responsible and saved get screwed over.

£2 per litre petrol anyone?

 

[DelayRepay]

£2 per litre petrol anyone?

Of course. But to encourage the switch to electric cars. Absolutely not to try to fill the massive hole in public finances.

 

[brad465]

We do now seem locked into a low interest rates setup, which isn’t great if the powers that be want to control inflation. That is already running higher than was hoped for, and seems to be showing little sign of calming. Once again those who have been responsible and saved get screwed over.

£2 per litre petrol anyone?

The Bank of England's remit isn't about controlling inflation anymore. If it was rates would not have been rock bottom since 2008 and would have risen during the last decade and probably also in the current situation. Their remit appears to be keep the whole economy on life support, which means keeping rates low so that house prices don't crash (which our economy seems overly dependent on) and all public and private debt doesn't become unserviceable. Covid has only made all of this worse; the BoE put rates even lower to 0.1%, and even talked about negative rates, but higher inflation has at least averted that prospect for a while, and most critically put QE into overdrive, all to keep supporting our enormous levels of covid borrowing and drive the housing market even more insanely high.

This autumn we could be left with a right dilemma if restrictions are reintroduced while inflation remains high in the form of stagflation. The economic hit last year may not have been as bad as initially feared, but our response has risked making the next crisis worse; anymore mass borrowing and money printing this autumn and beyond will not help that.

 

[bramling]

The Bank of England's remit isn't about controlling inflation anymore. If it was rates would not have been rock bottom since 2008 and would have risen during the last decade and probably also in the current situation. Their remit appears to be keep the whole economy on life support, which means keeping rates low so that house prices don't crash (which our economy seems overly dependent on) and all public and private debt doesn't become unserviceable. Covid has only made all of this worse; the BoE put rates even lower to 0.1%, and even talked about negative rates, but higher inflation has at least averted that prospect for a while, and most critically put QE into overdrive, all to keep supporting our enormous levels of covid borrowing and drive the housing market even more insanely high.

This autumn we could be left with a right dilemma if restrictions are reintroduced while inflation remains high in the form of stagflation. The economic hit last year may not have been as bad as initially feared, but our response has risked making the next crisis worse; anymore mass borrowing and money printing this autumn and beyond will not help that.

I agree with all of this. The snag is if high inflation becomes politically untenable. Young people continue to be screwed as far as the housing market goes (another example of the Covid burden being artificially shifted from old people to young people), however there will come a point where high inflation becomes a political issue. A lot of everyday things have already become more expensive over the last few months. If the trend continues we’re in trouble.

I’m not entirely sure why interest rates are being held so low when a lot of the economy has bounced back. Fears that people would be frightened to leave their homes seem not to have materialised.

 

[quantinghome]

... but higher inflation has at least averted that prospect for a while, and most critically put QE into overdrive, all to keep supporting our enormous levels of covid borrowing and drive the housing market even more insanely high.

Low interest rates go some way to explaining housing market inflation in the long term, but in recent years it has been driven by specific government interventions. Interest rates have been about the same level for more than a decade so don't explain the growth since the 2008-2009 crash. Help to buy, stamp duty holidays, and a taxation system which encourages capital investment over wage growth are bigger contributors IMO.

 

[bramling]

Low interest rates go some way to explaining housing market inflation in the long term, but in recent years it has been driven by specific government interventions. Interest rates have been about the same level for more than a decade so don't explain the growth since the 2008-2009 crash. Help to buy, stamp duty holidays, and a taxation system which encourages capital investment over wage growth are bigger contributors IMO.

There’s also supply and demand. London’s population has increased, and this seems to have resulted in an outflow of people to the wider south-east (and perhaps with the Covid effect this is now pushing further - it already was to some extent). An increasing population size combined with a country with constrained space, especially in the areas people actually want to be, was always going to create problems. This has to be one reason why the much-predicted “bubble burst” has never happened. The other being artificially low interest rates sustained over many years.

 

[nlogax]

London’s population has increased, and this seems to have resulted in an outflow of people to the wider south-east (and perhaps with the Covid effect this is now pushing further - it already was to some extent).

This is actually the reason why London's population is projected to fall this year.

 

[quantinghome]

There’s also supply and demand. London’s population has increased, and this seems to have resulted in an outflow of people to the wider south-east (and perhaps with the Covid effect this is now pushing further - it already was to some extent). An increasing population size combined with a country with constrained space, especially in the areas people actually want to be, was always going to create problems. This has to be one reason why the much-predicted “bubble burst” has never happened. The other being artificially low interest rates sustained over many years.

Population has increased pretty much everywhere in the country over the last few decades, especially in the south-east, but then so has housing stock. In fact the number of dwellings in excess of households has constantly increased since the mid-1990s (Figure taken from link below).



The problem is a lack of AFFORDABLE housing - caused in part by low interest rates, but also the switch from social to private renting, and those with significant cash (ranging from people buying a second home to rent out for a bit more income, to overseas investors looking for a safe bolthole for their money with few questions asked) outbidding potential first time buyers.

More analysis here: Why building 300,000 houses per year won't solve the housing crisis – and what will | British Politics and Policy at LSE

 

[ChrisC]

We do now seem locked into a low interest rates setup, which isn’t great if the powers that be want to control inflation. That is already running higher than was hoped for, and seems to be showing little sign of calming. Once again those who have been responsible and saved get screwed over.

£2 per litre petrol anyone?

I have just been having a look at the history of UK interest rates and wonder how much longer these low rates can remain. Throughout the 18th century interest rates remained stable at around 5%. During the 19th century interest rates became more unstable and constantly fluctuated at between 5 and 10%. This remained very much the situation into the 20th Century through until the late 1970s when in 1979 they got as high as 17%. Although during the 1980s interest rates fell from that very high level they remained at levels of over 10% until the mid 1990s with them back up to as high as 14% in 1989. By the year 2000 interest rates were back at around the 5% level before falling dramatically to 0.5% in 2009. They have remained below 1% since 2009 and are currently at a record low of 0.10%.

With interest rates now being at less than 1% for the last 12 years there’s almost a whole generation of the younger working population who have never known anything different. Even to go back to what was the average or normal levels for the UK of around 5% would be an absolute unheard of situation for many people with mortgages who have never known any rates higher than 1%. You hear of people with real worries about paying their mortgage even when there’s rumours that interest rates could rise to about 0.5%.
The longer these low rates remain the more of a shock it will if be rates do begin to rise to their more normal levels.

Another aspect of low interest rates has been the extremely low interest rates for savers over last 12 years. In the area where I live many people were made redundant from the mining industry during the times of the very high interest rates. For a few years, when rates were well above 10%, they could almost manage to live off the interest rates from investing their redundancy payments. Some of these people are now finding it very difficult in their retirement years without this income and having by also now having had to spend most of their savings.

 

[quantinghome]

I have just been having a look at the history of UK interest rates and wonder how much longer these low rates can remain. Throughout the 18th century interest rates remained stable at around 5%. During the 19th century interest rates became more unstable and constantly fluctuated at between 5 and 10%. This remained very much the situation into the 20th Century through until the late 1970s when in 1979 they got as high as 17%. Although during the 1980s interest rates fell from that very high level they remained at levels of over 10% until the mid 1990s with them back up to as high as 14% in 1989. By the year 2000 interest rates were back at around the 5% level before falling dramatically to 0.5% in 2009. They have remained below 1% since 2009 and are currently at a record low of 0.10%.

With interest rates now being at less than 1% for the last 12 years there’s almost a whole generation of the younger working population who have never known anything different. Even to go back to what was the average or normal levels for the UK of around 5% would be an absolute unheard of situation for many people with mortgages who have never known any rates higher than 1%. You hear of people with real worries about paying their mortgage even when there’s rumours that interest rates could rise to about 0.5%.
The longer these low rates remain the more of a shock it will if be rates do begin to rise to their more normal levels.

Another aspect of low interest rates has been the extremely low interest rates for savers over last 12 years. In the area where I live many people were made redundant from the mining industry during the times of the very high interest rates. For a few years, when rates were well above 10%, they could almost manage to live off the interest rates from investing their redundancy payments. Some of these people are now finding it very difficult in their retirement years without this income and having by also now having had to spend most of their savings.

As they say, predictions are hard, and especially when it comes to the future.

However, in this case there's a strong case to argue that interest rates will stay low - it's a trend seen throughout the developed world, and long term government bonds are low indicating the market doesn't foresee a major increase in interest rates in the next few years.

 

[Kite159]

We do now seem locked into a low interest rates setup, which isn’t great if the powers that be want to control inflation. That is already running higher than was hoped for, and seems to be showing little sign of calming. Once again those who have been responsible and saved get screwed over.

£2 per litre petrol anyone?

Which will only punish those people who need to use their car to get to work (i.e. public transport doesn't exist or can't be trusted) and can't afford to get an electric car

 

[yorkie]

Summary:

Everyone is going to be exposed to this virus; people are now finally accepting transmission of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be eliminated and transmission is not preventable.

The idea of sterilising immunity and a herd immunity threshold is now dead (this should be no surprise; similar viruses reach an endemic equilibrium and this one is no different)

There is no longer much point in testing people who don't have symptoms.

We need to focus on how many people are I'll not positive cases.

The vaccines are effective at protecting against serious illness but cannot stop transmission.

An infection for most people will be a booster to their pre-existing immunity (virologists I listen to have been saying this for months)

People who are unvaccinated need to consider this as a significant warning as they cannot avoid being exposed to the virus.

To be honest this is nothing really new, it's just some people would not accept the situation which many on this forum have known to be inevitable for months now.

Balls to that. Sick of what's approaching 2 years stuck in this country. Its made me realise how small the UK is, and I've been touring it for the last 36 years alongside foreign travel.

I predict returning from green list countries won't require testing (for vaccinated individuals) within 2 months maximum.

(And if I am wrong the people making the decisions are completely stupid)

 

[bramling]

Which will only punish those people who need to use their car to get to work (i.e. public transport doesn't exist or can't be trusted) and can't afford to get an electric car

I'm not advocating it (on the contrary), just saying I think it's the sort of thing we may have to "look forward" to.

 

[quantinghome]

Well, the Bond trailer has just dropped. Based on previous experience this is not a good sign.

No Time to Die: does a new trailer mean 007 is finally ready for action? | No Time To Die | The Guardian

 

[MikeWM]

Well, the Bond trailer has just dropped. Based on previous experience this is not a good sign.

- I agree, this is a worrying omen! On this basis, I'd recommend anyone planning to do anything does so before September 30th.

 

[Merseysider]

What I expect to happen:

Vaccines to be given (at some point this year) to everyone of secondary school age.

Boris to promise no more restrictions, then U-turn & propose restrictions when deaths hit X amount, then U-turn again when his party/business leaders express their fury.

The ‘junk’ newspapers (S*n, mail, express etc) will still continue to throw out their CAPITAL LETTERS DOOM headlines, suggesting what could happen if a new variant were discovered, publicising some self-proclaimed expert’s apocalyptic forecast that hospitalisations will reach a billion & we must prOteCK teH NHS, and so on.

For fully vaccinated travellers, lateral flow testing instead of expensive PCR tests for flights abroad, and then a complete removal of that requirement. Sexual harassment hotels Quarantine facilities for ‘red list’ inbound travellers to remain.

 

[BackOnTheTrain]

Boosters just got confirmed. For about 1% of the population. I will be very relieved when I get mine.

Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) advice on third primary dose vaccination

www.gov.uk

 

[Yew]

(And if I am wrong the people making the decisions are completely stupid)

Have you been paying attention for the last few months?

Boosters just got confirmed. For about 1% of the population. I will be very relieved when I get mine.

Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) advice on third primary dose vaccination

www.gov.uk

That seems rather sensible, vaccinate the vulnerable, send the rest of the doses to those in developing countries.

 

[WestRiding]

Can see it now, only give booster to extremely vulnerable, cases start going up, but because we didn't boost everyone, we go back to Lockdowns and banning of foreign travel while we play catch up giving out boosters. But we won't have boosters because we gave them away.

 

[Class 317]

For me the big one is how prepared the NHS is heading into winter.

At the moment we seem to be seeing about 7k people in hospital with cases at about 35k a day.

If covid has turned seasonal we should expect these to rise heading into winter. Extra double vaccinations should bring the figure down some but would still expect the NHS to have to deal with circa 15k patients during winter.

In a normal winter the NHS would be expecting to deal with between 5k and 10k respiratory patients at a time so this will be a challenge but should be able to be handled based on the last year or so.

The big unknown is how much flu will come back during winter. The science seems quite divided on this one with different people thinking it could go either way.

I think it's prudent for the NHS to be planning for 15k to 25k patients as a realistic winter peak.

If this planning and funding is in place we should escape full lockdowns and manage with light touch measures except the guidance might become stricter.

I'd expect more people to be cautious as cases rise and mask wearing to increase during winter.

 

[43066]

Can see it now, only give booster to extremely vulnerable, cases start going up, but because we didn't boost everyone, we go back to Lockdowns and banning of foreign travel while we play catch up giving out boosters. But we won't have boosters because we gave them away.

Indeed, that is a concern. Especially as there is still uncertainty about how quickly the protection from initial doses of the vaccine will reduce over time. Are we going to be requiring boosters every year and having annual lockdowns until they’ve been given?

The hope has to be that there’s now sufficient numbers of backbench MPs to persuade the government to adopt a more sensible approach going forward, on the basis they we’ve done all that we can and *must* now get back to life as normal. The danger otherwise is simply falling back into exactly the same cycle as last autumn/winter.

 

[P Binnersley]

A relative has been given a date in September for a third dose. She is 80+, but not extremely vulnerable. She had both shots of Pfizer in January three weeks apart before the gap was extended to 12 weeks.