I said one morning and one evening flight in each direction (i.e. a total of flights a day). Chances are there were some additional flights which didn't run daily to then drop the figures more.On this.
Firstly, 200k pax a year is the equivalent of 2 x A320 rotations a day, unless you think you can fit nearly 300 people on a daily ‘fairly small flight’. In practice I assume Manchester - Southampton was around 4-5 daily rotations of smaller aircraft. Obviously it’s not now Flybe have gone to the wall.
Secondly, look at Newcastle. Even with a half hourly train service, and journey times well under 3 hours, and a much smaller catchment population than Glasgow / Edinburgh, it still supports 5 London rotations a day and half a million passengers. Like Manchester, most of these must be transfer passengers.
So, there will be a reduction in London - Central belt flights (as there has been already), in my view around half (a couple of years after Phase 2b is complete). @Noddy disagrees, and thinks it will be a smaller reduction. But I think @Noddy and I both agree it is unlikely to be more than a halving, partly because of transfer traffic, and partly because of those passengers who have a journey that starts or concludes sufficiently close to an airport to make the flight much more attractive. I guess we’ll see. All of this, of course, assumes that the aviation industry, the rail industry, and the economy, is back to ‘normal’ by the time HS2 is open.
According to here for Flybe:
Flybe leaves a network of 50 mainly-domestic routes, 80% having no competition: hopefully an opportunity for other carriers to meet regional demand.
Route Manchester – Southampton
2019 estimated passengers (MIDT) 119,474
Est. passengers daily each way (PDEW) 164
I assume that there must have been another airline providing some additional services to bring the total to the 200,000 which is seen quoted elsewhere, here: