High Speed Rail Scotland

[Altnabreac]

Transport Scotland have told Lanarkshire Council that a HS2 to Scotland feasibility study commences this month, the route they have in mind is Glasgow/Edinburgh diverging at a potential park and ride/interchange at Eurocentral then running to Carstairs where it rejoins the WCML. Leaves it a long way from the border :P

https://mars.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/egenda/images/att87395.pdf

True but the line speeds on the Rutherglen - Carstairs section vary between 70 and 105 (mainly around 90).

You also bypass the following junctions, stations, level crossings and terminals that have potential to slow down or cause conflicts to fast services:
Rutherglen West Junction
Rutherglen Central Junction
Rutherglen East Junction
Cambuslang Station
Newton West Junction
Newton East Junction
Uddingston Station
Uddingston Junction
Logan's Road LC
Motherwell junction with Coatbridge lines
Motherwell junction with Hamilton lines
Motherwell Station
Dalzell Iron Works
Shieldmuir Station
Shieldmuir North Junction
Shieldmuir Mail Terminal
Shieldmuir South Junction
Law Junction
Carluke Station
Cleghorn LC
Lanark Junction
Ravenstruther Coal terminal
Carstairs Down Yard
Carstairs Station
Carstairs Station Junction
Carstairs South Junction

By contrast between Carstairs and the Border you have 90 -125 mph running and only three things to slow down or conflict with your fast services:
Lockerbie Station
Cove LC
Gretna Junction

So Glasgow - Carstairs is a small proportion of your distance but avoiding 10-12 flat junctions with multiple existing local and freight services is extremely useful both for time savings and reliability of service. It's a disproportionately big benefit with a very useful potential park and ride connection at Eurocentral.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah but remember the Scottish government were lobbying hard for the English HS2 to run right up to the border.

 

[Altnabreac]

Yeah but remember the Scottish government were lobbying hard for the English HS2 to run right up to the border.

Remember although this is High Speed Rail in Scotland and the studies are being lead by Transport Scotland the intention is the work will be done as part of the main HS2 project and will be funded by the UK Government.

So although the Scottish Government preference would be for full high speed all the way to Wigan / Church Fenton the actuality has to be what they can persuade the UK Government to fund.

At present the agreed aim is to deliver 3 hour journey times from London to Glasgow and Edinburgh and so the schemes proposed will be those that provide the best value in delivering that journey time.

 

[WatcherZero]

Or the more cynical is they are now only interested in using it to fund a Glasgow-Edinburgh High Speed Line they had to drop themselves in 2016 because they couldn't afford it.

 

[Altnabreac]

Or the more cynical is they are now only interested in using it to fund a Glasgow-Edinburgh High Speed Line they had to drop themselves in 2016 because they couldn't afford it.

Well the study is looking at Glasgow - Carstairs with a spur onto the Shotts line. That isn't a full Glasgow - Edinburgh High Speed Line. It's always been clear there is no business case for a standalone Edinburgh - Glasgow High Speed line that doesn't deliver cross border benefits.

Nothing has been dropped as this current study is the follow up to the previous work. Not sure how you got that impression but this is following on from the Keith Brown / Robert Goodwill announcement in March 2016 that established the common aim of the 3 hour journey time.

Wheels just move slowly establishing schemes of this scale and ambition.

 

[clc]

The Scottish Govt would still have to fund the spur with flying junctions presumably. Though the junction with the Shotts line would become redundant if the spur was extended at some future point.

 

[WatcherZero]

This study isnt just Glasgow-Carstairs, its the full triangle with the line only turning south at the midway point. it should produce near identical Edinburgh/Glasgow times unlike the previous concept where it went to Glasgow then on to Edinburgh.

 

[lejog]

Transport Scotland have told Lanarkshire Council that a HS2 to Scotland feasibility study commences this month, the route they have in mind is Glasgow/Edinburgh diverging at a potential park and ride/interchange at Eurocentral then running to Carstairs where it rejoins the WCML. Leaves it a long way from the border :P

https://mars.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/egenda/images/att87395.pdf

I notice the route proposed here takes no account of Transport for the North's proposals for Northern Powerhouse Rail, which include an upgrade of the East Coast Main Line from Church Fenton to Newcastle to allow a Leeds to Newcastle journey time of 1 hour, but no upgrades to the west coast line. I can't see any UK government paying for a high speed west coast line just for Scotland. A little more cooperation may be more productive.

 

[Altnabreac]

This study isnt just Glasgow-Carstairs, its the full triangle with the line only turning south at the midway point. it should produce near identical Edinburgh/Glasgow times unlike the previous concept where it went to Glasgow then on to Edinburgh.

I notice the route proposed here takes no account of Transport for the North's proposals for Northern Powerhouse Rail, which include an upgrade of the East Coast Main Line from Church Fenton to Newcastle to allow a Leeds to Newcastle journey time of 1 hour, but no upgrades to the west coast line. I can't see any UK government paying for a high speed west coast line just for Scotland. A little more cooperation may be more productive.

I’d advise you both to read the quote from earlier in the thread.
https://news.gov.scot/news/cross-border-rail-improvements-planned

Given the announcement by the First Minister into the two studies was made in Newcastle and refers specifically to the East Coast Dunbar - Newcastle study as well as the Glasgow - Carstairs one then it would suggest they are well aware of the Northern Powerhouse plans.

And given the quote refers clearly to Glasgow - Carstairs you can be sure that it does not include a full triangle route or that is what would have been announced, worth actually reading the most up to date announcements to see what is planned.

 

[WatcherZero]

I think you didn't read right to the end.

reduce the journey time between Edinburgh and Newcastle by a third, down to only one hour, and also reduce journey times between Glasgow and Edinburgh and Carlisle

 

[Altnabreac]

I think you didn't read right to the end.

Bypassing Carstairs with it’s flat junctions and slow turnouts will reduce journey times for Carlisle to Edinburgh services even if it were to rejoin the current line not far north of Carstairs. No need for a full line to Edinburgh to achieve savings there.

 

[och aye]

Infrastructure Investment Plan 2015: programme pipeline update September 2020

Information relating to ongoing major infrastructure programmes with an investment of £50 million or more.

www.gov.scot

The North of HS2 to Scotland Working Group which was set up to deliver the joint UK and Scottish Government Commitment to improve journey time between London and Central Scotland, has confirmed the technical and environmental feasibility of a number of rail infrastructure enhancements that could be implemented between 2021 to 2033.

On the east coast, the study confirmed the technical and environmental feasibility of constructing new high-speed line sections between Newcastle and Edinburgh, which together could half the journey down to just 45 minutes and in conjunction with HS2, achieve an approximate 3 hour journey time between Edinburgh and London.

On the west coast, the study confirmed the technical and environmental feasibility of constructing a new high-speed line between Bay Horse and Low Gill in Lancashire, which would reduce journey time by 12 minutes and between either Carstairs or Abington and Glasgow that could reduce the journey time between Abington and Glasgow by 12 or 17 minutes respectively. The route between Carstairs and Glasgow has superior connectivity, which would also reduce the journey time between Abington and Edinburgh by over 5 minutes and facilitate the construction of new cross-border stations on a new high-speed line within the Eurocentral business park and on the existing rail network near Livingston.

The combined west coast options in conjunction with HS2, could achieve either a 3 hour 10 minute or 3 hour 15 minute journey time between Glasgow and London, depending on the route chosen between Abington and Glasgow.

The output from these studies will inform a Strategic Business Case which will be shared with Scottish and UK Government Ministers in early 2021 to inform their investment decisions in the light of the joint commitment they made in 2016.

 

[EllieAquitrain]

Not that I'm suggesting a change of government is remotely likely anytime soon, but to the multiple users asserting no UK govt would ever fund a HS line north of Preston: surely it's not impossible that the next government is a Labour-SNP coalition? In such a case, connecting Scotland to an English HS network could very well occur IMO.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Low Gill is a very obscure place name that also applies to somewhere far inland in Lancashire. The point they're talking about is listed as a red link (non-existent page) on the Wikipedia WCML diagram: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_Main_Line_diagram and is between the former Tebay and Grayrigg stations. OpenStreetMap has a tiny one-postbox hamlet called Low Gill here: https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=17/54.36757/-2.58343. The reason for such an obscure place is that this is the southern end of Lune Gorge, where the WCML and M6 motorways are forced together by the steep and narrow valley.

Bay Horse is just south of Jn 33 on the M6 and about where you'd need a Lancaster bypass track to diverge from the WCML to avoid the university. I think we can presume the line in between would roughly follow the M6. Google Maps has the distance on the M6 as 30 miles. Bay Horse is approximately 10 miles north of where MSG ended their Preston Bypass line option (at Brock, near Bilsborrow) in the 2012 Phase 2 western branch options report. I don't expect that line section to ever happen, because missing out Preston would probably cause too much of a blow to the business case given the importance of travel between Scotland and the north west of England.

The terms of reference for this work seems to be entirely about getting the Scotland-London journey times down, which is not unreasonable. The Lancashire line segment would work fine as part of any plausible future HSR plans to Scotland via the west coast. Whatever gets built up in Scotland would need to be more integrated into wider rail capacity planning for the Central Belt. I'm still very much unconvinced it's a good idea for HSR trains to come up to Haymarket via Slateford.

 

[Altnabreac]

Low Gill is a very obscure place name that also applies to somewhere far inland in Lancashire. The point they're talking about is listed as a red link (non-existent page) on the Wikipedia WCML diagram: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_Main_Line_diagram and is between the former Tebay and Grayrigg stations. OpenStreetMap has a tiny one-postbox hamlet called Low Gill here: https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=17/54.36757/-2.58343. The reason for such an obscure place is that this is the southern end of Lune Gorge, where the WCML and M6 motorways are forced together by the steep and narrow valley.

Bay Horse is just south of Jn 33 on the M6 and about where you'd need a Lancaster bypass track to diverge from the WCML to avoid the university. I think we can presume the line in between would roughly follow the M6. Google Maps has the distance on the M6 as 30 miles. Bay Horse is approximately 10 miles north of where MSG ended their Preston Bypass line option (at Brock, near Bilsborrow) in the 2012 Phase 2 western branch options report. I don't expect that line section to ever happen, because missing out Preston would probably cause too much of a blow to the business case given the importance of travel between Scotland and the north west of England.

The terms of reference for this work seems to be entirely about getting the Scotland-London journey times down, which is not unreasonable. The Lancashire line segment would work fine as part of any plausible future HSR plans to Scotland via the west coast. Whatever gets built up in Scotland would need to be more integrated into wider rail capacity planning for the Central Belt. I'm still very much unconvinced it's a good idea for HSR trains to come up to Haymarket via Slateford.

As you can see from the plans referenced above, the HSR trains for Edinburgh are not coming via Slateford they're coming via Newcastle.

 

[Altnabreac]

This study isnt just Glasgow-Carstairs, its the full triangle with the line only turning south at the midway point. it should produce near identical Edinburgh/Glasgow times unlike the previous concept where it went to Glasgow then on to Edinburgh.

I think you didn't read right to the end.

You can see now that its not the full triangle concept but in fact a Carstairs - Rutherglen route with 2 connecting spurs. Details here:

Infrastructure Investment Plan 2015: programme pipeline update September 2020

Information relating to ongoing major infrastructure programmes with an investment of £50 million or more.

www.gov.scot

 

[NotATrainspott]

As you can see from the plans referenced above, the HSR trains for Edinburgh are not coming via Slateford they're coming via Newcastle.

I don't think they will. For one, the nature of Phase 2b to Leeds/York is now being reviewed again in light of NPR stuff. It's possible the mainline route will be slowed down to make it serve intermediate communities east of the Pennines slightly better. Newcastle-London journey times on fast classic rail services are already 'good enough' for most purposes and it's mostly capacity and connectivity to non-London places that are needed. I can definitely see the end-to-end journey time goal (at least for 2b) being relaxed and once that happens, the idea of using the route to serve Edinburgh-London flows would fall away. Sure, you might extend a London service past Newcastle and Edinburgh would be a natural place to go, but it'd be a slower option for connectivity like the Avanti Euston to Edinburgh service.

I know that there are lots of journeys between the Central Belt and the North East of England and that they're fairly important. I don't think they're sufficiently important for long stretches of new track saving 45 minutes to be justified. If you're not sending London trains that way I think the scope of any changes would be much reduced. We'd still probably see some big interventions in East Lothian to allow fast trains to fly past slow stoppers serving commuter stations, and we might see some tweaks at other slow points along the route like Morpeth. It is entirely permitted to build new line sections which aren't part of a wider high speed project.

 

[Class 170101]

How would you power the East Coast route from Newcastle to Edinburgh? We already know there is an issue with the existing ECML through this area due to lack of power supply due to low density of High Voltage supply.

 

[NotATrainspott]

How would you power the East Coast route from Newcastle to Edinburgh? We already know there is an issue with the existing ECML through this area due to lack of power supply due to low density of High Voltage supply.

Power supply upgrades are quite a bit easier and simpler than building large stretches of new line. I'd expect a pre-requisite for any major new line sections and extra train services using them would be better supply.

This is more about long-term planning for how you'd run Scotland to London trains over HS2. At this point it'll be some time in the 2030s before Edinburgh trains switch to HS2 and the nature of ECML traffic would change compared to today.

 

[class26]

How would you power the East Coast route from Newcastle to Edinburgh? We already know there is an issue with the existing ECML through this area due to lack of power supply due to low density of High Voltage supply.

It is being upgraded anyway fairly soon

 

[Tobbes]

Ignoring the politics, if there were a true HSR to the same spec as HS2 Ph1 all the way to Glasgow and Edinburgh, what would the target journey time be? Anything close to 2h - 2h 10m would basically ensure that there was no case for London/SE-Central Belt flights.....

 

[The Ham]

Ignoring the politics, if there were a true HSR to the same spec as HS2 Ph1 all the way to Glasgow and Edinburgh, what would the target journey time be? Anything close to 2h - 2h 10m would basically ensure that there was no case for London/SE-Central Belt flights.....

It would also make it questionable (circa 3:35) for Southampton to Central Belt flights as well.

 

[Tobbes]

It would also make it questionable (circa 3:35) for Southampton to Central Belt flights as well.

Precisely - this is a double win: emissions in the UK and the use of slots at slot-constrained airports in the SE.

 

[BantamMenace]

Ignoring the politics, if there were a true HSR to the same spec as HS2 Ph1 all the way to Glasgow and Edinburgh, what would the target journey time be? Anything close to 2h - 2h 10m would basically ensure that there was no case for London/SE-Central Belt flights.....

London to Edinburgh is 400 miles so the dogleg to Birmingham you’re looking at 450 route miles probably and HS2 operating speed is planned to be 205mph. Take into account acceleration, breaking and intermittent stops and you’re looking at 2hr 30mins minimum.

 

[The Ham]

London to Edinburgh is 400 miles so the dogleg to Birmingham you’re looking at 450 route miles probably and HS2 operating speed is planned to be 205mph. Take into account acceleration, breaking and intermittent stops and you’re looking at 2hr 30mins minimum.

I suspect that one of the following might be true by the time that any such route through to Scotland was built;
- going via Crewe
- an Eastern HS line (possibly via Cambridge) to free up capacity for more services along phase 1

Either would therefore shorten the distance, back towards the 2:00 mark.

 

[BantamMenace]

I suspect that one of the following might be true by the time that any such route through to Scotland was built;
- going via Crewe
- an Eastern HS line (possibly via Cambridge) to free up capacity for more services along phase 1

Either would therefore shorten the distance, back towards the 2:00 mark.

I agree in principle but it would take a ballsy government to double up london to north before building London to west and/or south west to Birmingham. London to yorkshire via Cambridge is probably one for the 2040s/50s. London to Cardiff and Bristol to Birmingham will likely come first.

 

[Tobbes]

London to Edinburgh is 400 miles so the dogleg to Birmingham you’re looking at 450 route miles probably and HS2 operating speed is planned to be 205mph. Take into account acceleration, braking and intermittent stops and you’re looking at 2hr 30mins minimum.

That seems reasonable: 2h30m stopping at Birmingham Interchange (or whatever the one by the airport is to be called) and Preston (?) for the NW would be an excellent target.

 

[Noddy]

London to Edinburgh is 400 miles so the dogleg to Birmingham you’re looking at 450 route miles probably and HS2 operating speed is planned to be 205mph. Take into account acceleration, breaking and intermittent stops and you’re looking at 2hr 30mins minimum.

Edinburgh is west of Birmingham. Draw a straight line with a ruler and you wouldn’t be that far east of HS2. I don’t imagine many London-Scotland trains will go via Curzon St.

Hypothetically Edinburgh-Carlisle-Wigan is almost a due south straight line-thena straight line SSE to London via HS2.

 

[cle]

Marseille <> Paris is 3h08 at its quickest, and has really cut air demand, not least by also having Avignon and Aix (which used the MRS airport too) - so I would think that anything 3h30 and under would see a big modal shift for Glasgow/Edinburgh to London journeys.

Tangent, but on air/rail demand - OOC will add an additional boarding point (most business trips begin early morning from home, not the office - and people don't all live near rail termini) - allowing a lot more folks to access the services from across London, avoiding Euston. Tokyo has Shinagawa and Ueno, NYC has Newark (not just NJ but Lower Manhattan) - they need them - larger metros require the ability to spread demand rather than a single point.

 

[Bald Rick]

Ignoring the politics, if there were a true HSR to the same spec as HS2 Ph1 all the way to Glasgow and Edinburgh, what would the target journey time be? Anything close to 2h - 2h 10m would basically ensure that there was no case for London/SE-Central Belt flights.....

London to Edinburgh is 400 miles so the dogleg to Birmingham you’re looking at 450 route miles probably and HS2 operating speed is planned to be 205mph. Take into account acceleration, breaking and intermittent stops and you’re looking at 2hr 30mins minimum.

Euston - Glasgow is 403 miles, by a rather twisty route. HS2, despite the routeing via Birmingham Interchange, is a little shorter to the end of the Ph 2b route at Bamfurlong Junction. Were there to be an extension all the way to Glasgow, it would unquestionably knock out many more curved sections (otherwise it wouldn’t be a High Speed railway), therefore the route would be in the region of 380-390 miles. Assuming calls at OOC, Birmingham Interchange, and perhaps somewhere around Preston, then 2h30 is doable.

Having said that, even getting it to 3h30 (as with Ph 2) will make a big dent in air traffic - it will probably take about half the existing Glasgow / Edinburgh to London air market. So that extra 200 miles of high speed route is going to buy about 30% of the current air market (about 2 million passengers), given that about 20% is interlining at Heathrow / Gatwick.

All very rough figures.