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How critical is the return of passengers and busy trains for railway jobs?

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Starmill

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What rail needs is for the passenger load to be spread as evenly as realistic across the services that are running. If in the near future passengers find trains crowded even if they tolerated that pre-Covid they may then avoid rail travel except as a last resort.

The principles of discounted advance fares should be
a) to get some income from a seat that would otherwise be empty
b) encourage those who are flexible when they travel to use trains with spare capacity

Trains running close to or beyond capacity should not normally have passengers holding advance tickets.

Where there are unknowns e.g. the possibility of a football match depending on the results of previous matches no discounted advance tickets should be available until known that a train or group of trains will not be used by a large number of supporters.
The fundamental objective of yield management is to maximise revenue. Your suggestion appears to be for it to maximise load factors instead, while trying reasonably not to exceed 100% wherever possible.

While that may or may not be sensible I'd point out that it's actually a very different objective indeed, and would come with bit cash opportunity cost. As Bald Rick suggests, waiting for everyone else in the events industry to get their arrangements together and only then deciding on pricing and availability will cause huge lost revenue. Of course you could still take the view that this is better than what we had until recently, and what the railway is funded for. But I'd say that there are much better uses of such increased subsidy than accommodations to the extremely lucrative sports industry.

That's why there was a push last August to return to the office and why the Chancellor has already been making those sounds again in recent weeks.
That was probably the worst possible way to handle it. Going from implying people working at home are lazy to, overnight, saying that you must work at home unless impossible. I don't think anyone will listen to the government's view on the matter now. They'll do what works well for them personally based on their circumstances - and based on the best ways to fit in with their colleagues and managers. This makes prediction challenging.

The Chancellor is saying what he wants to happen, but the control of the Chancellor over the economy is roughly equivalent to trying to manoeuvre a container ship
Exactly. Personally I don't give a fig what Sunak thinks about how I should do my work. I am interested only in what my boss thinks and what my individual preferences are.

There does seem to be an inherent contradiction between what the Chancellor is saying and what is rumoured here about large cuts to train services. Cutting train services is hardly going to encourage workers back to office, in fact it would achieve the opposite.
Same goes for high and increasing real prices for office workers. But nobody is more responsible for that high price level than the Chancellor.
 
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Speaking of encouraging people back to the railways. Sheffield is my local Mainline Station. £19.50 for a days parking. That will not encourage people back. I nearly fainted when it came to paying, its the first time I have actually parked there.
But depending where you live can't you get a bus or a tram there (or if closer walk or cycle)?

I can't see a return to seaside specials in any great number.

But then again, if you're running frequent trains to places like Margate, Bognor and Scarborough, it makes sense to fill them up with the bucket and spade brigade.

People are more likely to be commuting away from those places, so it's a good counter-peak flow to go at.
From my viewing last summer at Reading, the west of England trains on summer Saturdays were well filled (not trains that I would then liked to have been on with a preference for generous social distancing) in both standard and first class.
 
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Starmill

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But depending where you live can't you get a bus or a tram there (or if closer walk or cycle)?
It is the antithesis of a sustainable transport solution to provide or encourage city centre car parking. Of course frustratingly, that doesn't mean that there's a genuine alternative for everyone, although in Sheffield there's a decent chance of being able to connect sensibly by bus or tram.
 

greyman42

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City-to-city driving will likely become less attractive with more and more ultra-low emission zones being introduced.

As for leisure travel returning, until the mask mandate is discontinued there will be plenty who are not interested
More likely to just ignore the stupid law.
 

ChrisC

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It is the antithesis of a sustainable transport solution to provide or encourage city centre car parking. Of course frustratingly, that doesn't mean that there's a genuine alternative for everyone, although in Sheffield there's a decent chance of being able to connect sensibly by bus or tram.
Although £19.50 is an extremely high charge for parking at a station, I agree that Sheffield does have good bus and tram connections to reach the station. That is the case in many large cities so it should encourage people to use public transport to reach the a city centre station.

I don’t think high parking charges at stations in the centre of large cities is so much of a problem. It is high parking charges at stations in smaller market towns which can discourage people from travelling by train. Many towns can have quite reasonably priced parking if the they are on a secondary rail route but it is usually very different if they are on an a main line which is only served by long distance services.

Two stations which are around 30 minutes drive form my home are Newark Northgate and Chesterfield. Both of these charge around £12 a day to park. Stations like this are not so easily accessible by bus from the surrounding towns and villages. The £12 parking charge does sometimes discourage me from using the train and if, for example, I am going for a day out in York I remain in my car, drive up the A1 and use the park and ride.
 
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al78

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because there is no evidence they work.

I don't think that is true.

 

SamYeager

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Why not just do as you’re asked, it can’t make matters any worse!
Because I sodding hate them! I'm not getting on a train until the requirememnt to wear those wretched things is rescinded.
 

Starmill

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Because I sodding hate them! I'm not getting on a train until the requirememnt to wear those wretched things is rescinded.
That's entirely your perogative - speaking as someone who finds them deeply uncomfortable. However, until such a time as this changes it's right that people who would rather travel and put up with it are allowed to do so, I think we can all agree and hopefully get back to the main topic concerning financial prospects or issues in the industry.
 

Jozhua

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It is the antithesis of a sustainable transport solution to provide or encourage city centre car parking. Of course frustratingly, that doesn't mean that there's a genuine alternative for everyone, although in Sheffield there's a decent chance of being able to connect sensibly by bus or tram.
Although £19.50 is an extremely high charge for parking at a station, I agree that Sheffield does have good bus and tram connections to reach the station. That is the case in many large cities so it should encourage people to use public transport to reach the a city centre station.

I don’t think high parking charges at stations in the centre of large cities is so much of a problem. It is high parking charges at stations in smaller market towns which can discourage people from travelling by train. Many towns can have quite reasonably priced parking if the they are on a secondary rail route but it is usually very different if they are on an a main line which is only served by long distance services.

Two stations which are around 30 minutes drive form my home are Newark Northgate and Chesterfield. Both of these charge around £12 a day to park. Stations like this are not so easily accessible by bus from the surrounding towns and villages. The £12 parking charge does sometimes discourage me from using the train and if, for example, I am going for a day out in York I remain in my car, drive up the A1 and use the park and ride.
Possibly the solution to parking charges would be the ability to use them as coupons off a percentage of your fare.
There have been a few parkway stations, but ones like East Midlands Parkway haven't really been very sucessful (although this is likely because they operate exclusively as a car park, with virtually no transit connection to local towns/villages.)
Because I sodding hate them! I'm not getting on a train until the requirememnt to wear those wretched things is rescinded.
I'm looking forward to the day I won't need to wear them.

Some are a whole lot worse than others though. The disposable medical-grade ones smell awful and are very uncomfortable. It's also worth noting that any form of face covering is acceptable, you can use a bandana and the like just as legally. However, the best I have found are the Step-ahead ones from Wilkos, washable, breathable, comfortable and not smelly. Pick up a few of those for going to the shops and it'll hopefully make your life at least a little more bearable.
 

SuperNova

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Because I sodding hate them! I'm not getting on a train until the requirememnt to wear those wretched things is rescinded.
See you in 2022 at the earliest, because they are going nowhere soon at all. Especially, if what's happening in Brazil does what we saw in 2020.
 

Mag_seven

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OK I think we can cease with the face covering discussion and get back the question at hand i.e. How critical is the return of passengers and busy trains for railway jobs?

Thanks :)
 

The exile

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There's a massive issue here though around home working as a permanent fixture and the economy. We've already seen Town centres on their knees since the Financial crash, if your company is like so many others - we're going to see city centres on their knees too which has a massive knock on effect on jobs, prosperity and the economy.

That's why there was a push last August to return to the office and why the Chancellor has already been making those sounds again in recent weeks. While working from home is convenient to those with a nice big house - the impact to the overall economy (and I include rail jobs) will be severe. I for one can hope their will be financial incentives for companies to have offices open and those who decide that WFH is the future should pay the cost to the overall economy.
I would have thought that if the government wants to encourage a return to office based working then the easiest way would be to “remind” employers that they remain responsible for ensuring employees’ health and safety at their place of work and that that responsibility cannot be discharged simply by means of an online self- assessment, but requires unannounced audit visits! I’m sure lots of blind eyes are being turned at present which will start to open again once the danger is less “ clear and pressing”
 

Bletchleyite

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I would have thought that if the government wants to encourage a return to office based working then the easiest way would be to “remind” employers that they remain responsible for ensuring employees’ health and safety at their place of work and that that responsibility cannot be discharged simply by means of an online self- assessment, but requires unannounced audit visits! I’m sure lots of blind eyes are being turned at present which will start to open again once the danger is less “ clear and pressing”

Dictating this sort of working practice isn't for the Government to do, it is for employers, employees and Unions where applicable. The future of town centres can be different. Chain dominated high streets have not been around long.
 

squizzler

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I would have thought that if the government wants to encourage a return to office based working then the easiest way would be to “remind” employers that they remain responsible for ensuring employees’ health and safety at their place of work and that that responsibility cannot be discharged simply by means of an online self- assessment, but requires unannounced audit visits! I’m sure lots of blind eyes are being turned at present which will start to open again once the danger is less “ clear and pressing”
I like your thinking. Don’t think a laptop on the bed is an ergonomically safe form of working!

Zoe Williams writes an insightful article on how covid discussions forget the existence and needs of young people in the guardian:
We talk about the return to the office as if the debate is simply about balancing the interests of the worker who’d prefer to be at home against those of the chief exec of Pret a Manger. Our new word for whatever compromise may emerge is the “agile” workplace, which sounds great. Middle-aged people love agility: it reminds us of the 90s. But there’s no obvious consideration here of what the office represents to those at the start of their careers. It’s not just a commute and a frothy coffee. It’s where you learn and progress and build your skills, hard and soft, and get away from your crappy flat where you’re working on an ironing board.
 

Bletchleyite

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The thing is, though, if you're at the start of your career you no longer have to live in a "crappy flat" and work "on an ironing board", because you no longer need to live in London (which is where this mostly goes on due to the outrageous property prices). You can get the gains mentioned by going in 2 days a week, and that can allow for a longer commute, e.g. from the Midlands where housing is cheaper. Or perhaps it'd be viable to stay with your parents for a few years and save for a deposit on your own place. Benefits all round there.

But either way, where people work is not a matter for the Government, and their nose needs to be kept firmly out of it. It is a matter between employer, employee and (where applicable) Union. There is the H&S aspect, but (pre COVID) just making a declaration has handled that in a way people are generally happy with; perhaps a right to employer funded "proper" desk/chair might be worth considering, that said. The Government has no business encouraging travel, when travel is to be discouraged because of environmental issues. If that causes Pret issues, they might want to consider setting up cafes in residential areas instead for homeworkers to pop out for lunch (I often did this pre-COVID). If it causes the railway issues, that needs to restructure around the actual travel demands that are presented to it, not set about creating them.

I could not be more opposed to the idea of a policy of legally-enforced Luddism.
 

yorksrob

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If it causes the railway issues, that needs to restructure around the actual travel demands that are presented to it, not set about creating them.

That's fine, so long as the railway does continue to meet the actual travel demands presented to it, and it isn't just cut to suit a centralised cost-cutting agenda.
 

david1212

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I've said this before, but I think that yield management can be "too clever by half".

If people feel that the train company is trying to get one over on them by suddenly withdrawing fares that would normally be there, it leads to a loss of trust, bad feeling and the potential to use alternative modes in future.

I can see your viewpoint plus for the next few months loadings are not going predictable and data from 2019 and earlier not a guideline. Equally though if and when should it considered it normal for a significantly discounted advance ticket to be available?
Should the passenger find an advance withdrawn and the train still well below capacity feeling cheated on is reasonable but not if the loading is say >75%.

That’s really tricky, as football matches move for TV at less than a couple of weeks notice. You would lose a lot of business if the whole of the Manchester - London service was not put up for sale until 2 weeks before the FA Cup semi is confirmed, for example.

Picking Manchester-London highlights why a full fare repricing is so desperately needed. The anytime walk on open return is a ridiculous £369 and the any operator Saver £94.50. Looking right now at advances for a week ahead there is £49.20 on the 08:05 outbound and £40.00 on the 17:20, 18:20 & 18:34 return, slightly less than the Saver and ~ 25% of Anytime. These are far from the advance cheapest fares that were available hence totally understandable why before March 2020 some people would commit to an advance weeks ahead.

Generally though what proportion of advances were booked far ahead and more to the point how many will be for even the next year? Going forward would there be a big loss if at least for certain dates the decision about advances was made only after details for major event were confirmed?
 

yorksrob

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I can see your viewpoint plus for the next few months loadings are not going predictable and data from 2019 and earlier not a guideline. Equally though if and when should it considered it normal for a significantly discounted advance ticket to be available?
Should the passenger find an advance withdrawn and the train still well below capacity feeling cheated on is reasonable but not if the loading is say >75%.

I think it's more about whether the fare would ordinarily be available, to my mind.
 

Bletchleyite

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That's fine, so long as the railway does continue to meet the actual travel demands presented to it, and it isn't just cut to suit a centralised cost-cutting agenda.

Yes, agreed. So the sort of thing I'd envisage is that the South East commuter TOCs might end up operating to an all-week, all-day clockface 8 car timetable, for example (more like what tends to operate away from London). Not that we should close anything or use it as an excuse to reduce services on branch lines that don't carry substantial commuter loads anyway.
 

zwk500

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That's fine, so long as the railway does continue to meet the actual travel demands presented to it, and it isn't just cut to suit a centralised cost-cutting agenda.
To be devil's advocate, at what point is demand low enough to justify cutting a service in response to 'actual demand', that you won't complain about it being cut as part of some great savings-based conspiracy?
 

yorksrob

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To be devil's advocate, at what point is demand low enough to justify cutting a service in response to 'actual demand', that you won't complain about it being cut as part of some great savings-based conspiracy?

It's a tricky one because even closing a route with lowish passenger numbers might lead to a slippery slope situation.

But there are a lot of routes which carry reasonable numbers of passengers but probably cost more to run and maintain. These definitely should not be cut.
 

zwk500

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It's a tricky one because even closing a route with lowish passenger numbers might lead to a slippery slope situation.

But there are a lot of routes which carry reasonable numbers of passengers but probably cost more to run and maintain. These definitely should not be cut.
There's a world of difference between cutting services and cutting routes. I'm certainly not suggesting COVID numbers be used to justfiy closures. Closing a line is a long-term decision, you'd need a lot of data to demonstrate it's dead and COVID has essentially put all that back to 0 years worth.
But if, for example, Ilkley-Bradford traffic was half the level it had been pre-pandemic, would you accept 1tph instead of 2tph. And if a line came back with roughly the same ridership, but was expensive in crew and units at a high-frequency short-length, would you accept half as many trains if each train was twice as long?

It is an unavoidable truth that the railway will have to reduce it's costs somewhere. The days of 5-day Commuters from 50 miles around London paying £x0,000s en masse are gone, and with them most of the railways day-to-day revenue. It is therefore absolutely vital that as many passengers as possible do come back, as quickly as possible, but it won't be enough on it's own. And borrowing can only go so far without just digging a deeper hole later on.

P.S. The 'slippery slope' argument ends up with situations like Newhaven Marine and Folkestone Harbour, where closure was held off for years, at great cost to the railway, when all useful function for passengers had ceased decades before.
 

yorksrob

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There's a world of difference between cutting services and cutting routes. I'm certainly not suggesting COVID numbers be used to justfiy closures. Closing a line is a long-term decision, you'd need a lot of data to demonstrate it's dead and COVID has essentially put all that back to 0 years worth.
But if, for example, Ilkley-Bradford traffic was half the level it had been pre-pandemic, would you accept 1tph instead of 2tph. And if a line came back with roughly the same ridership, but was expensive in crew and units at a high-frequency short-length, would you accept half as many trains if each train was twice as long?

It is an unavoidable truth that the railway will have to reduce it's costs somewhere. The days of 5-day Commuters from 50 miles around London paying £x0,000s en masse are gone, and with them most of the railways day-to-day revenue. It is therefore absolutely vital that as many passengers as possible do come back, as quickly as possible, but it won't be enough on it's own. And borrowing can only go so far without just digging a deeper hole later on.

P.S. The 'slippery slope' argument ends up with situations like Newhaven Marine and Folkestone Harbour, where closure was held off for years, at great cost to the railway, when all useful function for passengers had ceased decades before.

I think to an extent I agree. As a passenger I think a half hourly service is perfectly easy to plan around. Hourly less so, but also doable if there isn't the usage to support more. The important thing is to not put the passengers off by destroying the service.
 

zwk500

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I think to an extent I agree. As a passenger I think a half hourly service is perfectly easy to plan around. Hourly less so, but also doable if there isn't the usage to support more.
I've only lived in places with a 2tph service or more, although at times those trains have been a 5/55 minute split and I didn't find an effective service of 1tph too difficult to plan around. However, I didn't have to worry about connections, and I know 1tph can mean some very long waits when changing (or disrupted).
The important thing is to not put the passengers off by destroying the service.
I agree. Equally, passengers must not be put off by a massive fare jump, so somewhere costs must be reduced. It's a tricky balancing act.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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There's a world of difference between cutting services and cutting routes. I'm certainly not suggesting COVID numbers be used to justfiy closures. Closing a line is a long-term decision, you'd need a lot of data to demonstrate it's dead and COVID has essentially put all that back to 0 years worth.
But if, for example, Ilkley-Bradford traffic was half the level it had been pre-pandemic, would you accept 1tph instead of 2tph. And if a line came back with roughly the same ridership, but was expensive in crew and units at a high-frequency short-length, would you accept half as many trains if each train was twice as long?

It is an unavoidable truth that the railway will have to reduce it's costs somewhere. The days of 5-day Commuters from 50 miles around London paying £x0,000s en masse are gone, and with them most of the railways day-to-day revenue. It is therefore absolutely vital that as many passengers as possible do come back, as quickly as possible, but it won't be enough on it's own. And borrowing can only go so far without just digging a deeper hole later on.

P.S. The 'slippery slope' argument ends up with situations like Newhaven Marine and Folkestone Harbour, where closure was held off for years, at great cost to the railway, when all useful function for passengers had ceased decades before.
If ridership is down to a level that doesn't need the peak that will liberate considerable savings particularly in rolling stock and it will also avoid many enhancements ie like Croydon remodelling. There will need to be a national strategy about how to redeploy rolling stock but majority of routes should have an half hourly service in urban areas. None of this can happen until Dept of Transport set out their vision for the what the railway needs to be for but we won't see that this side of summer recess I suspect.
 
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