How critical is the return of passengers and busy trains for railway jobs?

[Robertj21a]

Lots of news about big companies permanently reducing their office space as they've found people can work effectively enough from home . I think the railway can pretty much forget commuting for city based office workers ever going back to previous levels. Business travel likewise, Zoom and the like will mop up a lot of meetings that previously required travel.

Very true. For me, it feels like the 25% reduction suggested is probably about right.

 

[yorksrob]

The Government has estimated future usage of (mainly commuter) services and believes that the bounce back in demand will be very low.
The Government needs to stem the £billion a month loss/subsidy.
The plan the Government will be delayed until after May elections.
There will be significant cuts in commuter services.

I think "very low" is unduly pessimistic.

I think it's premature for them to be estimating future usage when the "work from home" guidance hasn't even been removed. They need to wait and see what happens first.

 

[RHolmes]

Is that an IC or a regional TOC ?

IC / Regional semi-fast express

 

[yorksrob]

IC / Regional semi-fast express

Ah thanks. Yes, I can imagine that leisure travel would be very important to such such services.

 

[Bald Rick]

Heard a rumour that the summer holidaymaker trains to Newquay and Torbay are unlikely to operate in 2021, despite the restrictions on taking holidays abroad. What does this say about DfT being in charge of TOC decision making ? Clearly that the leisure market is too expensive, or is it too awkward to pursue ?
So with the commuter market slump, but DfT apparently unwilling to chase other options, that tells me all I need to know about the future.

It tells you not to believe rumours!

 

[deltic]

To answer the OP's question there is considerable pressure from the Treasury on the rail industry to reduce costs. Work that has been done for the Rail Delivery Group suggests commuting could fall by 40% which if peak services are stripped out could result in a net cost saving to the industry. More worryingly research suggests high yield business travel could fall by a similar amount. Network Rail costs are also under scrutiny. Going forward we are likely to see reductions in ticket office, station and Network Rail staff. As others have said train crew are more likely to be under establishment and hence reductions will be in overtime rather than staff numbers

 

[Bald Rick]

To answer the OP's question there is considerable pressure from the Treasury on the rail industry to reduce costs. Work that has been done for the Rail Delivery Group suggests commuting could fall by 40% which if peak services are stripped out could result in a net cost saving to the industry

Clearly if peak (only) services are stripped out there is a cost saving, but it would be nowhere near enough of a cost saving to offset a 40% fall in commuting. Rail is a high fixed cost industry.

Nevertheless the fall in commuting won’t be 40%. Only about half of commuters are in office jobs.

 

[yorksrob]

Work that has been done for the Rail Delivery Group suggests commuting could fall by 40% which if peak services are stripped out could result in a net cost saving to the industry.

People have alluded to this on here before, but I've not previously seen it endorsed officially.

I wasn't aware that it would result in a net saving, which is certainly good news if true.

As with all things, it will come to down to whether cuts implemented debilitate the quality of the service, for example by nibbling away at evening trains and shortening the travelling day.

 

[L401CJF]

From my experience working on the buses throughout the whole pandemic, and commuting to work on the train when shifts allow, I found in Merseyside the buses were averaging no more than 5 passengers per trip (daytime) in the first lockdown. At night you wouldn't see a soul. Merseyrail have had 6 cars throughout for the most part and in the first lockdown you'd have have a carriage to yourself for the most part.

At the height of the restrictions being eased last year, probably 80% of day time bus journeys from my experience were running at the max social distancing capacity and leaving a lot of people at stops. The trains were considerably busier during the day when restrictions were eased and whilst nowhere near their usual levels, were easily 50% full on some of the journeys I made.

The real question as pointed out already is whether the commuter flows will return to anything near what they used to be. There still seems to be a fair few commuters in peak hour at present, more than there was last April, but nowhere near normal levels.

 

[algytaylor]

People have alluded to this on here before, but I've not previously seen it endorsed officially.

I wasn't aware that it would result in a net saving, which is certainly good news if true.

That's quite surprising initially, although it makes more sense with a bit of thought ... presumably fewer trains would lower staff, cleaning, and maintenance costs for trains that aren't been used *that* heavily outside of rush hours.

I'm probably an atypical railway user - don't own or want a car, rail's been my primary form of transport since I was a (young) kid, use it for work & leisure. Lockdown's massively reduced my rail usage. I was doing 40,000+ miles a year pre-lockdown, with a roughly 80:20 split between commuting and leisure. My leisure use will bounce back to similar to what it was, but I doubt I'll ever do as much commuting travel again. I imagine I'll be looking at around 10,000 miles a year or so eventually, split about 50:50 between work & leisure.

 

[Philip]

To try and put a neutral perspective on my own role, I think that whilst many quiet outstations will really struggle to justify running a booking office (this was the case before last year!), busy stations on the other hand will struggle to cope without one. Enough people weren't using mobile ticket technology or ticket machines, or had struggles with them before last year, to keep them busy; and whenever there is disruption they are usually the point of contact for help.

I don't know if this sounds like a case of lending support to my own job, or if it is an accurate assessment across the country?!

 

[irish_rail]

This will primarily be down to driver competency (and lack thereof) due to an inability to keep up route cards after training has ground to a halt

No, everyone at Plymouth still signs 800s and the Newquay branch and most also sign Paignton along with everyone at Exeter, so that isnt the reason. I must admit the descion not to run these trains has baffled us!!

 

[yorksrob]

That's quite surprising initially, although it makes more sense with a bit of thought ... presumably fewer trains would lower staff, cleaning, and maintenance costs for trains that aren't been used *that* heavily outside of rush hours.

I'm probably an atypical railway user - don't own or want a car, rail's been my primary form of transport since I was a (young) kid, use it for work & leisure. Lockdown's massively reduced my rail usage. I was doing 40,000+ miles a year pre-lockdown, with a roughly 80:20 split between commuting and leisure. My leisure use will bounce back to similar to what it was, but I doubt I'll ever do as much commuting travel again. I imagine I'll be looking at around 10,000 miles a year or so eventually, split about 50:50 between work & leisure.

That's similar to my experienc (albeit possibly with smaller overall milages.

 

[Robertj21a]

To answer the OP's question there is considerable pressure from the Treasury on the rail industry to reduce costs. Work that has been done for the Rail Delivery Group suggests commuting could fall by 40% which if peak services are stripped out could result in a net cost saving to the industry. More worryingly research suggests high yield business travel could fall by a similar amount. Network Rail costs are also under scrutiny. Going forward we are likely to see reductions in ticket office, station and Network Rail staff. As others have said train crew are more likely to be under establishment and hence reductions will be in overtime rather than staff numbers

All sounds quite realistic.

 

[Purple Orange]

It is interesting that people are drawing a link between a drop in commuter passenger numbers and commuter services. However that correlation is not there.

Pre-covid most office based workers had 1 day wfh to begin with and most companies had the ability to have meetings via teleconference or video conference. However it was the expectation that the train would be there if it was needed.

Fast forward to post-covid and let us say people are working from home 2 days per week. Working patterns will be spread across the week and unlikely to be evenly spaced. Friday will probably be the quietest day, as it always has been. Monday-Thursday will see less of a drop. In fact this may speed the transition to a culture of a 4-day working week. However the collective expectation will still be that the train service is there to use if needed.

There may be some reduction, but dropping services by 20% or 30% will mean that the days at highest demand, people will turn to the car. Tues-Thurs may feel no different than it did before the pandemic and the railway will need to be able to cater for passenger demand.

 

[TheSeeker]

Friday will probably be the quietest day, as it always has been.

Pre-covid the place I work didn't allow telework on Mondays or Fridays and was really strict on time keeping. This morning we've been told to book 100% telework a month in advance so I doubt we'll ever go back to normal. I take the train into work now and again just to get out and about although there's usually nobody in the office.

 

[MissPWay]

Yep. That’s it, games over they’ll never come back. 2019 was the high-water mark for railway use, and the people of this forum rejoiced.

Just like in the 70’s/80’s when the network was in “terminal decline,” and BR rationalised and singled lines etc.

That went well, the passenger numbers never grew, particularly after most homes got an internet connection in the late 90’s early 2000’s no one needed to leave home and the rationalisation never had to be reversed at great expense......

 

[Ken H]

I think the hit to communing will be severe. Home working is the genie in the bottle that wont go back. Workers like not wasting time and money on commuting, employers see providing less office spaace is a useful cost cut
But with less commuting, the roads will be quieter, as will car parking. So people will think 'why take the train when i can drive?'. especially of the railway dont come up with a decent offering to part time commuters. I would have thought a 10 journey ticket for the price of 9 offer would be enough.
All this is true for buses too.

edit - Leisure trips to the shops will also be hit. People have discovered online shopping and thats another genie that wont go back.

 

[Bald Rick]

I wasn't aware that it would result in a net saving, which is certainly good news if true.

It’s not true, not by a long way. You only have to see the analysis by Roger Ford on payments to TOCs through the last year. I forget the detail, but I think it worked out very roughly that for every 10% reduction in services, it saved 1% of cost.

 

[Need2]

Workers like not wasting time and money on commuting

Money they won’t have to waste when employers start paying workers less.
Does anybody actually think that employers will not start cutting wages or at least offering vastly reduced salaries to new staff, when the workforce no longer has to travel to work?

 

[yorksrob]

It’s not true, not by a long way. You only have to see the analysis by Roger Ford on payments to TOCs through the last year. I forget the detail, but I think it worked out very roughly that for every 10% reduction in services, it saved 1% of cost.

It's a start I suppose.

Realistically, the railway has one key option - grabbing the paying customers who are inclined to travel and not putting them off with poor/unusable timetables, price gouging and needlessly complicated/restrictive rules around using services.

Reasonably priced walk-on fares for short and medium distance journeys will be needed to get bums on seats. Good availability for AP for longer distance services will also be needed.

 

[Ken H]

Money they won’t have to waste when employers start paying workers less.
Does anybody actually think that employers will not start cutting wages or at least offering vastly reduced salaries to new staff, when the workforce no longer has to travel to work?

that will depend if they want good staff who actually work at home or people who sit of social media all day doing nothing.

 

[Wyrleybart]

This will primarily be down to driver competency (and lack thereof) due to an inability to keep up route cards after training has ground to a halt

So is the answer to kill off the "staycation market" just at the time when Brits need it most ? More traffic onto the M5 and A30 wlll be just what those folk in the southwest don't need. And if the leisure market is abandoned in 2021, ia DfT seriously going to relearn the routes for Summer2022 ? Obviously the indigenous operator in this region still operates daily services so route knowledge is not an issue. The problems is the long distance holidaymaker services from the north. AFAIK there isn't a through service from north of Bristol to Torbay, and is apparently unlikely from today's new timetable.

 

[dk1]

Money they won’t have to waste when employers start paying workers less.
Does anybody actually think that employers will not start cutting wages or at least offering vastly reduced salaries to new staff, when the workforce no longer has to travel to work?

That's the first I've heard of that. Perhaps these people need to join a good union.

 

[Philip]

that will depend if they want good staff who actually work at home or people who sit of social media all day doing nothing.

I don't think it's fair to judge that people who accept lower wages are going to be people who use their working time to sit on social media all day.

 

[bramling]

The Government has estimated future usage of (mainly commuter) services and believes that the bounce back in demand will be very low.
The Government needs to stem the £billion a month loss/subsidy.
The plan the Government will be delayed until after May elections.
There will be significant cuts in commuter services.

I suspect stuff like the GN 365s going is a sign of what is to come.

 

[Ken H]

I don't think it's fair to judge that people who accept lower wages are going to be people who use their working time to sit on social media all day.

employers will get wise on methods to measure home workers output. That will be reflected in pay awards at review time or maybe some people not having a job any more.

 

[Need2]

My point was not to make out working from home encouraged a degree of laziness.
My point is that so many people ‘appear’ to want to work from home and are keen to shout out its (self serving) benefits yet fail to see the bigger picture.
An employer in London can instantly shave £K’s off a salary (London weighting etc) when the employee no longer has the expenditure of travelling.
You reap what you sow etc etc

 

[miami]

Daily commuters aren’t the source of money for many TOCs outside of London and the South East. At my TOC we were taught during training that most of the income (around 80%) comes from passengers travelling for leisure, largely on advances.

Revenue across the industry for 2019-20 by ticket type

OffPeak: £3.4b (37% of km - 14p/km)
Anytime: £3.1b (19% of km - 25p/km)
Season: £2.1b (24% of km - 13p/km)
Advanced: £1.7b (22% of km - 12p/km)

By Sector
Long distance: £3.4b (33% of km)
London/SE: £5.1b (46% of km)
Regional: £1.6b (20% of km)

Tables don't match the ticket type with toc

Advanced leisure travelers are not what brings in the cash, taking the least amount of money and the least amount per km.

As long as they don't take seats away from more valuable passengers it's useful "additional" funding - where unused capacity is used, and the extra money from journeys that wouldn't be made (by train) outweigh the revenue taken from journeys that would otherwise be on more expensive tickets.

employers will get wise on methods to measure home workers output

They didn't manage to do it with knowledge worker output in the office

 

[DarloRich]

The answer to the question posed by the OP is one or more of the following words: massive, enormous, gigantic, stupendous, colossal, vast, mammoth, tremendous, immense, monumental

Leisure travel wont make up for a shortfall in commuting. Commuting isn't coming back at the levels it was before COVID. People have learned the benefits of working from home and shown increases in productivity while working in that manner. Sensible employers will see the benefits in productivity, saving on vast office spaces and transfering some of the support costs ( heat, light, internet, consumables etc) onto the worker. Job cuts are coming and they are coming very soon. The Tories will also be gunning for the dirty unions and for terms and conditions. Don't believe me? Look at the funding that has been pumped into the industry as a whole over the last year. The figures are incredible. While the government did the right thing in keeping the system running that cant carry on for much longer. The government are going to want /need that back somehow. The fare returns aren't going to cut it so that money has to come from cuts elsewhere.

PS don't get me started on people who think working from home means messing about all day. it is insulting and preposterous to suggest that, which is why Johnson did it.

PPS the housing market is possibly in for a shock also. The value of my house was that it was 45 minutes from London. Who needs to be 45 minutes from London these days?