How critical is the return of passengers and busy trains for railway jobs?

[Philip]

The answer to the question posed by the OP is one or more of the following words: massive, enormous, gigantic, stupendous, colossal, vast, mammoth, tremendous, immense, monumental

Leisure travel wont make up for a shortfall in commuting. Commuting isn't coming back at the levels it was before COVID. People have learned the benefits of working from home and shown increases in productivity while working in that manner. Sensible employers will see the benefits in productivity, saving on vast office spaces and transfering some of the support costs ( heat, light, internet, consumables etc) onto the worker. Job cuts are coming and they are coming very soon. The Tories will also be gunning for the dirty unions and for terms and conditions. Don't believe me? Look at the funding that has been pumped into the industry as a whole over the last year. The figures are incredible. While the government did the right thing in keeping the system running that cant carry on for much longer. The government are going to want /need that back somehow. The fare returns aren't going to cut it so that money has to come from cuts elsewhere.

PS don't get me started on people who think working from home means messing about all day. it is insulting and preposterous to suggest that, which is why Johnson did it.

PPS the housing market is possibly in for a shock also. The value of my house was that it was 45 minutes from London. Who needs to be 45 minutes from London these days?

Doesn't make for very pleasant reading. Where do you think the cuts will come? It's easy to think closing outstation ticket offices as an example, but how much would that actually save as they tend to be only manned by one person, and only open up to lunchtime? And a fair number of staff who work at outstations are close to retirement age, or at least 'railway retirement age!

Removing busier ticket offices and revenue protection staff at barriers could be a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face, because it might encourage more ticketless travel and lost revenue. Dispatchers too play an important role as they help with a safer dispatch of the train than self dispatch does.

 

[387star]

The answer to the question posed by the OP is one or more of the following words: massive, enormous, gigantic, stupendous, colossal, vast, mammoth, tremendous, immense, monumental

Leisure travel wont make up for a shortfall in commuting. Commuting isn't coming back at the levels it was before COVID. People have learned the benefits of working from home and shown increases in productivity while working in that manner. Sensible employers will see the benefits in productivity, saving on vast office spaces and transfering some of the support costs ( heat, light, internet, consumables etc) onto the worker. Job cuts are coming and they are coming very soon. The Tories will also be gunning for the dirty unions and for terms and conditions. Don't believe me? Look at the funding that has been pumped into the industry as a whole over the last year. The figures are incredible. While the government did the right thing in keeping the system running that cant carry on for much longer. The government are going to want /need that back somehow. The fare returns aren't going to cut it so that money has to come from cuts elsewhere.

PS don't get me started on people who think working from home means messing about all day. it is insulting and preposterous to suggest that, which is why Johnson did it.

PPS the housing market is possibly in for a shock also. The value of my house was that it was 45 minutes from London. Who needs to be 45 minutes from London these days?

Yes I see house prices falling in places like Horsham but rising sharply in attractive coastal areas such as Chichester

 

[DarloRich]

Where do you think the cuts will come?

Everywhere sadly. it starts in the offices and flows from there. It will take time to hit front line staff like drivers but they will be hit. if we are running fewer trains we will need fewer drivers and guards. if we are running fewer trains we need fewer signalmen and need to fix the track less often etc etc.

The support from the government cant carry on like it is. How else can the funding gap be filled?

 

[Bikeman78]

It’s not true, not by a long way. You only have to see the analysis by Roger Ford on payments to TOCs through the last year. I forget the detail, but I think it worked out very roughly that for every 10% reduction in services, it saved 1% of cost.

So what is the solution then? If the government cuts the subsidy, what will have to give?

 

[Deafdoggie]

The office I used to work in were always adamant that working from home was simply not possible.
Now they've announced the office is to close and work from home is permanent.
They don't have to pay office rates, rent, electricity, etc. They no longer have to recruit local people, anyone anywhere with the right talents can now work for them, opening up a whole new talent pool.
I suspect many companies have found similar. As previously stated, the genie won't go back in the bottle.
Once one company in a sector is offering work from home, if employees see it as an advantage, then other companies will have to offer it, or loose their staff.
Yes, not everyone can work from home, at least not every day, but the shift has started.

 

[Mintona]

Might as well shut the lot down now then.

In three years time I can’t help but think people will be utterly bored of doing all of their working and living in the same three rooms.

 

[miami]

In three years time I can’t help but think people will be utterly bored of doing all of their working and living in the same three rooms.

Presumably local cafes and pubs will have reopened by then.

 

[DarloRich]

Might as well shut the lot down now then.

In three years time I can’t help but think people will be utterly bored of doing all of their working and living in the same three rooms.

I agree, but 100% home working wont be the answer for most. It is going to be a blend. Some time in the office, some time at home. The industry needs to work out how to cater for these people and provide tickets that deliver for both parties.

 

[miami]

So what is the solution then? If the government cuts the subsidy, what will have to give?

Well this is the problem isn't it. The road network scales down quite cleanly - as there's less traffic, there's less wear, and less money needs to be spent on maintenence.

The railway however has massive overheads which don't scale.

If the network doesn't recover revenue, ouch. It costs a lot of money to run the railway. Dropping from 6tph to 2tph on lines in the south east would seem one area that could cut a fair amount of cost -- fewer trains need leasing, fewer drivers need paying.

Perhaps the government will simply stop all subsidy and spend it on buses instead.

 

[deltic]

Clearly if peak (only) services are stripped out there is a cost saving, but it would be nowhere near enough of a cost saving to offset a 40% fall in commuting. Rail is a high fixed cost industry.

Nevertheless the fall in commuting won’t be 40%. Only about half of commuters are in office jobs.

The study for RDG covered all commuters not just those in office jobs. However, rail commuters are far more likely to be in office jobs than car and especially bus commuters

 

[philosopher]

Yep. That’s it, games over they’ll never come back. 2019 was the high-water mark for railway use, and the people of this forum rejoiced.

Just like in the 70’s/80’s when the network was in “terminal decline,” and BR rationalised and singled lines etc.

That went well, the passenger numbers never grew, particularly after most homes got an internet connection in the late 90’s early 2000’s no one needed to leave home and the rationalisation never had to be reversed at great expense......

I do think railway use is cyclical. In the seventies it would barely have been believable that in 2010’s rail use would be at their highest level ever. At that time the assumption was that rail use would continue to decline as passengers shifted to the car.

There will be probably be some societal or economic changes that encourage people to use the railways again at some point in the future, just as rising traffic congestion and concerns about pollution reversed the decline in rail use in the nineties.

 

[deltic]

It’s not true, not by a long way. You only have to see the analysis by Roger Ford on payments to TOCs through the last year. I forget the detail, but I think it worked out very roughly that for every 10% reduction in services, it saved 1% of cost.

I was thinking more long term than short term, an across the board reduction in services will provide less savings than a peak only reduction. Reduction in rolling stock fleets, better utilisation of staff resources, a more reliable service and less need for substantial infrastructure works. I recall one capacity enhancement project I worked on to allow peak demand to be met led to an increase in subsidy as the additional passenger revenue didnt even cover the extra rolling stock leasing costs.

 

[irish_rail]

I agree, but 100% home working wont be the answer for most. It is going to be a blend. Some time in the office, some time at home. The industry needs to work out how to cater for these people and provide tickets that deliver for both parties.

The trouble is 99 percent of people who choose to do a couple of days at the office will pick Tuesday and Wednesday. This is what will screw things up, as thr railway will be expected to provide hefty commuter capacity on these 2 days but not the other 5. Will result in lots of excess staff and trains sat around in sidings and depots for 5 out of 7 days a week.
Home working only really works if people are prepared to work a mix of days, but people just won't want to work Monday and Friday I dont think.

 

[mpthomson]

Revenue across the industry for 2019-20 by ticket type

OffPeak: £3.4b (37% of km - 14p/km)
Anytime: £3.1b (19% of km - 25p/km)
Season: £2.1b (24% of km - 13p/km)
Advanced: £1.7b (22% of km - 12p/km)

By Sector
Long distance: £3.4b (33% of km)
London/SE: £5.1b (46% of km)
Regional: £1.6b (20% of km)

Tables don't match the ticket type with toc

Advanced leisure travelers are not what brings in the cash, taking the least amount of money and the least amount per km.

As long as they don't take seats away from more valuable passengers it's useful "additional" funding - where unused capacity is used, and the extra money from journeys that wouldn't be made (by train) outweigh the revenue taken from journeys that would otherwise be on more expensive tickets.




They didn't manage to do it with knowledge worker output in the office

Some phone centre operators are already considering company provided IT with mandatory webcams to monitor what their employees are doing while they are supposed to be on shift at home. That'll creep out into many other areas of commerce too.

 

[zwk500]

The trouble is 99 percent of people who choose to do a couple of days at the office will pick Tuesday and Wednesday. This is what will screw things up, as thr railway will be expected to provide hefty commuter capacity on these 2 days but not the other 5. Will result in lots of excess staff and trains sat around in sidings and depots for 5 out of 7 days a week.
Home working only really works if people are prepared to work a mix of days, but people just won't want to work Monday and Friday I dont think.

That presumes that companies will allow people to set their own days, and I think there's lots of reasons that won't be the whole story.

Companies looking to slim down their office space will be as keen as the railway to see an even and consistent use of the assets they do retain, they'll also be keen to have a continuous presence in the office for customers. There's also the consideration that if more people decide to come into the office than can be accommodated you're wasting space/time/productivity trying to sort out the overcrowding issue. For these reasons I think lots of companies will look to be active in making sure the office is well used all week.

 

[Glenn1969]

Unfortunately what I think will give is enhancements like HS3, Crossrail 2 and NPR. if the current railway needs a subsidy can they justify to Sunak building even more lines that will require subsidies to be increased? I'm not sure they can and on this basis am also worried about HS2b

 

[Purple Orange]

I think the hit to communing will be severe. Home working is the genie in the bottle that wont go back. Workers like not wasting time and money on commuting, employers see providing less office spaace is a useful cost cut
But with less commuting, the roads will be quieter, as will car parking. So people will think 'why take the train when i can drive?'. especially of the railway dont come up with a decent offering to part time commuters. I would have thought a 10 journey ticket for the price of 9 offer would be enough.
All this is true for buses too.

edit - Leisure trips to the shops will also be hit. People have discovered online shopping and thats another genie that wont go back.

I see the opposite. Why have the expense of running a car for a few trips to work each week? And drive in to where? London? Manchester? Birmingham? Those places will never be an easy drive.

 

[Horizon22]

No, everyone at Plymouth still signs 800s and the Newquay branch and most also sign Paignton along with everyone at Exeter, so that isnt the reason. I must admit the descion not to run these trains has baffled us!!

Fair enough then! Does seem like a missed opportunity then.

 

[yorksrob]

That presumes that companies will allow people to set their own days, and I think there's lots of reasons that won't be the whole story.

Companies looking to slim down their office space will be as keen as the railway to see an even and consistent use of the assets they do retain, they'll also be keen to have a continuous presence in the office for customers. There's also the consideration that if more people decide to come into the office than can be accommodated you're wasting space/time/productivity trying to sort out the overcrowding issue. For these reasons I think lots of companies will look to be active in making sure the office is well used all week.

Yes, specific office days for specific teams. Not only does it utilise office space more efficiently, but it helps with team cohesion.

This is what my employer is planning.

 

[bramling]

Everywhere sadly. it starts in the offices and flows from there. It will take time to hit front line staff like drivers but they will be hit. if we are running fewer trains we will need fewer drivers and guards. if we are running fewer trains we need fewer signalmen and need to fix the track less often etc etc.

The support from the government cant carry on like it is. How else can the funding gap be filled?

I tend to agree I think we’re certainly in for a repeat of what we’ve seen in the past in terms of capacity cuts and the like, shorter trains appearing, et cetera.

The worry is that the past also provides a cautionary lesson that after a while things turned round and we were left short of trains, infrastructure stripped out et cetera.

There’s no easy answers unfortunately.

 

[nlogax]

I see the opposite. Why have the expense of running a car for a few trips to work each week? And drive in to where? London? Manchester? Birmingham? Those places will never be an easy drive.

This is where I see employers cutting back on car allowances where such things still exist. If there's money to be made out of any of this it'll be with used car dealers and franchises who thrive on the second hand market. We'll be saying farewell to a few motor manufacturers along the way.

 

[Greybeard33]

Nevertheless the fall in commuting won’t be 40%. Only about half of commuters are in office jobs.

Although a proportion of non office commuters work for city centre businesses that are wholly or partly dependent on the office economy. Hospitality, catering, cleaning, delivery services, retail, transport....

Once the furlough scheme ends, many of those jobs will disappear. There could be a vicious circle of city centre decline. And the railway could suffer disproportionately due to reduced road congestion.

 

[43096]

The trouble is 99 percent of people who choose to do a couple of days at the office will pick Tuesday and Wednesday. This is what will screw things up, as thr railway will be expected to provide hefty commuter capacity on these 2 days but not the other 5. Will result in lots of excess staff and trains sat around in sidings and depots for 5 out of 7 days a week.
Home working only really works if people are prepared to work a mix of days, but people just won't want to work Monday and Friday I dont think.

There’s an awful lot of guesswork going on at the moment - it remains to be seen what actually happens. The railway needs to adapt to what its customers want and not assume it can force customers to travel when the railway wants. If it’s incapable of doing that then there needs to be some serious decisions made on what the point of the railway is.

If Tue/Wed/Thu become the super-peak days (which I have doubts on: remember office down-sizing will mean there won’t be space for everyone) then it’s up to the railway to find a way to support it in a viable manner. Sundays inside the working week universally would be a good start: so in simplistic terms those not required Mon and Fri work Sundays, which saves overtime.

 

[DarloRich]

There’s an awful lot of guesswork going on at the moment - it remains to be seen what actually happens. The railway needs to adapt to what its customers want and not assume it can force customers to travel when the railway wants. If it’s incapable of doing that then there needs to be some serious decisions made on what the point of the railway is.

If Tue/Wed/Thu become the super-peak days (which I have doubts on: remember office down-sizing will mean there won’t be space for everyone) then it’s up to the railway to find a way to support it in a viable manner.

Spot on. People might not WANT to work Friday/Monday but not everyone WILL be able to do that. The key is for employers to smooth that demand and the railway to have capacity to deliver for travelers ( especially new style commuters) in a way that is different to pre COVID.

 

[Ken H]

The answer to the question posed by the OP is one or more of the following words: massive, enormous, gigantic, stupendous, colossal, vast, mammoth, tremendous, immense, monumental

Leisure travel wont make up for a shortfall in commuting. Commuting isn't coming back at the levels it was before COVID. People have learned the benefits of working from home and shown increases in productivity while working in that manner. Sensible employers will see the benefits in productivity, saving on vast office spaces and transfering some of the support costs ( heat, light, internet, consumables etc) onto the worker. Job cuts are coming and they are coming very soon. The Tories will also be gunning for the dirty unions and for terms and conditions. Don't believe me? Look at the funding that has been pumped into the industry as a whole over the last year. The figures are incredible. While the government did the right thing in keeping the system running that cant carry on for much longer. The government are going to want /need that back somehow. The fare returns aren't going to cut it so that money has to come from cuts elsewhere.

PS don't get me started on people who think working from home means messing about all day. it is insulting and preposterous to suggest that, which is why Johnson did it.

PPS the housing market is possibly in for a shock also. The value of my house was that it was 45 minutes from London. Who needs to be 45 minutes from London these days?

^^ bang on

The housing market in pretty areas is doing very well. people are wanting to relocate from cities to 'nicer' places. This isnt about railways, its about the survival of our great cities.

I see the opposite. Why have the expense of running a car for a few trips to work each week? And drive in to where? London? Manchester? Birmingham? Those places will never be an easy drive.

they will be easier. or people will railhead.

 

[yorksrob]

When you're a young person, there's a lot to be said for living in a city. They may have to reinvent themselves a bit, but I can't see a mass exodus from them.

 

[Robertj21a]

Might as well shut the lot down now then.

In three years time I can’t help but think people will be utterly bored of doing all of their working and living in the same three rooms.

Why? - everybody I know is delighted with the new WFH arrangements. Improves home-life balance enormously. Probably the biggest improvement ever for many people's lifestyle.

 

[Undiscovered]

There's a lot of factors at play overall here.

A lot, if not the majority, of UK wealth is based in property and folks aren't going to want to see their massive office blocks standing idle, losing money hand over fist. Likewise, regular people won't want to see their two up two down commuter belt house suddenly lose half its value, plunging them into negative equity, because no one commutes any more.
Secondly, while working from home in a global pandemic is an urgent necessity, planned working from home might require employers to provide infrastructure to allow this to happen, certainly on broadband connections, laptops and desks- indeed, there's already one company radio advertising saying that working from home needs to be properly and fully risk assessed.
Thirdly, there's the mental health aspect of it. While being at home is great, unless you actively get out and meet up with your friends, who may or may not be as flexible as you, you might only interact with another real person(outside of your family group) two, three times a week. That isn't healthy in the long run.

What works in an emergency doesn't necessarily translate to everyday.

 

[Purple Orange]

they will be easier. or people will railhead.

I’m not so sure about easier. Even today I wouldn’t bother driving in to Manchester.

Why? - everybody I know is delighted with the new WFH arrangements. Improves home-life balance enormously. Probably the biggest improvement ever for many people's lifestyle.

Not entirely. It is good to have some wfh, but not 4-5 days per week. I know plenty who want to get back.

 

[DarloRich]

Thirdly, there's the mental health aspect of it. While being at home is great, unless you actively get out and meet up with your friends, who may or may not be as flexible as you, you might only interact with another real person(outside of your family group) two, three times a week. That isn't healthy in the long run.

Not entirely. It is good to have some wfh, but not 4-5 days per week. I know plenty who want to get back.

I cant imagine many want to wfh 100% of the time. I certainly don't. I want to have a blend. There are going to be fewer excuses that employers can make to stop this because we all know the technology works, even with poor broadband and we all know that productivity ( or at least hours worked) are up mainly because we are not commuting.

I suspect employers ( at least the sensible ones) have taken a look at the prices they pay for office space and started to wonder if they can downsize.

The railway has to work put how it can respond to that chnage