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How critical is the return of passengers and busy trains for railway jobs?

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Undiscovered

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I cant imagine many want to wfh 100% of the time. I certainly don't. I want to have a blend. There are going to be fewer excuses that employers can make to stop this because we all know the technology works, even with poor broadband and we all know that productivity ( or at least hours worked) are up mainly because we are not commuting.
Productivity is up as everywhere is closed and it's only essential business that's open- Heck even the railways are running (mostly) on time!

Will both these continue when everything reopens?
 
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Purple Orange

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I cant imagine many want to wfh 100% of the time. I certainly don't. I want to have a blend. There are going to be fewer excuses that employers can make to stop this because we all know the technology works, even with poor broadband and we all know that productivity ( or at least hours worked) are up mainly because we are not commuting.

I suspect employers ( at least the sensible ones) have taken a look at the prices they pay for office space and started to wonder if they can downsize.

The railway has to work put how it can respond to that chnage

Yes the railway needs to respond to that change, but I think the wrong response is to see a drastic cut to frequency. The railway also needs to attract people out of their cars and apart from London, most TOCS the industry should be targeting these demographics. A 2 tph frequency on an urban commuter line is sometimes no match for the ease of driving, but a 3 tph or 4 tph frequency could start to really turn heads, especially for those people who only have a second car because of their job. If demand drops by 30%, the industry should be able to recover those passenger volumes in the medium term, but to drop frequency is to give up and concede to the car. There also needs to be a complete shift in terms of where rail priorities sit. In some areas such as Manchester, the industry prides the occasional long distance passenger over the regular short distance passenger. The opposite is true in Liverpool.

 

Robertj21a

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Productivity is up as everywhere is closed and it's only essential business that's open- Heck even the railways are running (mostly) on time!

Will both these continue when everything reopens?
Any good manager can monitor productivity. For many occupations I'd expect WFH to be very beneficial for the company, and the employee.

Yes the railway needs to respond to that change, but I think the wrong response is to see a drastic cut to frequency. The railway also needs to attract people out of their cars and apart from London, most TOCS the industry should be targeting these demographics. A 2 tph frequency on an urban commuter line is sometimes no match for the ease of driving, but a 3 tph or 4 tph frequency could start to really turn heads, especially for those people who only have a second car because of their job. If demand drops by 30%, the industry should be able to recover those passenger volumes in the medium term, but to drop frequency is to give up and concede to the car. There also needs to be a complete shift in terms of where rail priorities sit. In some areas such as Manchester, the industry prides the occasional long distance passenger over the regular short distance passenger. The opposite is true in Liverpool.

How do you think that the industry can recover a 30% drop in passenger volumes in the medium term?
 

Mintona

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Why? - everybody I know is delighted with the new WFH arrangements. Improves home-life balance enormously. Probably the biggest improvement ever for many people's lifestyle.

Spending all day every day staring at the same three rooms and same three people sounds pretty dull to me.
 

bramling

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Any good manager can monitor productivity. For many occupations I'd expect WFH to be very beneficial for the company, and the employee.


How do you think that the industry can recover a 30% drop in passenger volumes in the medium term?

I can’t see that happening. The thing will be more what happens to demand - a mega-peak on Tuesday to Thursday is going to be completely impractical all-round, however a smoothed off peak with 2000s levels of demand could introduce opportunities to actually make some cost savings.
 

Ken H

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Spending all day every day staring at the same three rooms and same three people sounds pretty dull to me.
I had a burst appendix in may 2018. I was keen to get back to work fairly quickly because i enjoy what I do. the boss agreed and drove a considerable distance to bring a laptop for me to work with. He wanted my project to progress.
I havent worked in the office since except for 3 days end of 2018. They have spent on decent internet connection into their network. I dont need to transfer loads of data between home and work, so my rubbish home broadband connection is not an issue.
I like not travelling and staying away. Saves loads of money too. I can chat to colleagues via teams. I can attend meetings the same way.
There again, as its a trans-european business, many meetings were Teams when i was in the office.

When I finish, I often go into the nearby town for a coffee and chill. With my wife often. i can also leave home for a while at lunchtime and sit on a bench a kilometre away, and watch the birds/sheep, and look at the local hills.

WFH suits me 100%
 

yorksrob

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I'm thoroughly sick of Teams/Zoom/Skype meetings.

Work seems very long without the occasional spontaneous chat.
 

Ken H

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I'm thoroughly sick of Teams/Zoom/Skype meetings.

Work seems very long without the occasional spontaneous chat.
dont you ever chat about rubbish on zoom? Just call up a friend and chat for 5 minutes about whatever.
 

yorksrob

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dont you ever chat about rubbish on zoom? Just call up a friend and chat for 5 minutes about whatever.

Occasionally, but it's not particularly spontaneous.

And I can't be doing with phone conversations.
 

43066

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Any good manager can monitor productivity. For many occupations I'd expect WFH to be very beneficial for the company, and the employee.

I disagree.

Most office based jobs done by the kind of people who will pay for expensive railway commuting aren’t “widgets in, widgets out”. They’re more about building networks, developing relationships with colleagues and clients, and often about good old fashioned salesmanship.

Influencing people (as opposed to just speaking to them) can be achieved far better through face to face meetings than endless zoom calls. Of the people I know doing these kinds of jobs, all of them are looking forward to getting back into the office.

That might mean doing three days per week rather than five, but return to the office they most certainly will.
 
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Robertj21a

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I disagree.

Most office based jobs done by the kind of people who will pay for expensive railway commuting aren’t “widgets in, widgets out”. They’re more about building networks, developing relationships with colleagues and clients, and often about good old fashioned salesmanship.

All of the above can be achieved far better through face to face meetings than endless zoom calls. Of the people I know doing these kinds of jobs, all of them are looking forward to getting back into the office.

That might mean doing three days per week rather than five, but return to the office they most certainly will.
We're all different, do different jobs, have different views and different needs as to how much contact is necessary. You can't say that 'All of the above can be achieved far better' when you clearly have a blinkered understanding of what people do.
 

philosopher

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Spot on. People might not WANT to work Friday/Monday but not everyone WILL be able to do that. The key is for employers to smooth that demand and the railway to have capacity to deliver for travelers ( especially new style commuters) in a way that is different to pre COVID.
Some of those splitting their time between the home and the office may choose to work Fridays so they go for an end of the week drink with their colleagues.
 

SuperNova

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Why? - everybody I know is delighted with the new WFH arrangements. Improves home-life balance enormously. Probably the biggest improvement ever for many people's lifestyle.
Employers on the whole aren't delighted and have seen productivity decrease. Friends of mine who don't have the luxury of a nice big house with plenty of space for a home office don't like it. The social, mental health and health implications aren't being fully seen either.

WFH should be part of a wider flexible way of working, but it certainly isn't the panacea some make it out to be.
 

43066

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We're all different, do different jobs, have different views and different needs as to how much contact is necessary. You can't say that 'All of the above can be achieved far better' when you clearly have a blinkered understanding of what people do.

On the contrary, a decade spent working in city of London based professional roles means I have a very good understanding indeed of what these kinds of people do, and how face to face meetings always trump zoom calls.

Perhaps your own experience of these matters is somewhat lacking?!

WFH should be part of a wider flexible way of working, but it certainly isn't the panacea some make it out to be.

Fully agreed.
 

Purple Orange

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Any good manager can monitor productivity. For many occupations I'd expect WFH to be very beneficial for the company, and the employee.


How do you think that the industry can recover a 30% drop in passenger volumes in the medium term?
It depends on what you consider medium term. I will say 5 years. We have to expect a modal shift and also recognise the efforts being made to reduce car usage in our cities. That requires good public transport and I think the rail industry needs to look more seriously at local markets. As one example, 3 fast tph from London to Birmingham & Manchester may not be needed, but additional stopping trains may be a better use of the paths in to those cities.
 

ChiefPlanner

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I disagree.

Most office based jobs done by the kind of people who will pay for expensive railway commuting aren’t “widgets in, widgets out”. They’re more about building networks, developing relationships with colleagues and clients, and often about good old fashioned salesmanship.

Influencing people (as opposed to just speaking to them) can be achieved far better through face to face meetings than endless zoom calls. Of the people I know doing these kinds of jobs, all of them are looking forward to getting back into the office.

That might mean doing three days per week rather than five, but return to the office they most certainly will.

I tend to agree - and especially the deep level of personal contacts in most non manufacturing industries thrive on one to one and more personal contacts (that is , for example how the City of London thrived in the past) - not just work locations but all the soft things like lunches , drinks and basically being "social" - something that Zoom , good enough to hold the line - but not a patch on direct human relationships. Meetings could be tedious - but there was always some benefit in chatting about other things.

I did more than my bit of "groundhog day" on Thameslink (never a good experience with 4 car peak sets !) , but commuting is not necessarily dire and 3 days a week sounds a good compromise.

I think it was Weber in the 19thC who said "Man is a gregarious animal" (apologies for not being inclusive of women in the workforce) - in terms of community , and like it or not , unless you fancy being a lighthouse keeper (few vacancies these days) , better to have some form of real human interaction.
 

Robertj21a

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On the contrary, a decade spent working in city of London based professional roles means I have a very good understanding indeed of what these kinds of people do, and how face to face meetings always trump zoom calls.

Perhaps your own experience of these matters is somewhat lacking?!



Fully agreed.
I can assure you that my professional experience, over decades, across the UK, allows me to have a wider view of the issues than your decade in the City of London (totally unrepresentative of the UK as a whole).
You need to get out and about a lot more!
 

miami

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Some phone centre operators are already considering company provided IT with mandatory webcams to monitor what their employees are doing while they are supposed to be on shift at home. That'll creep out into many other areas of commerce too.

God knows why, call centres have always had easy metrics to measure. The only reason to be physically in a building is to reduce morale.

What we will see is a hell of a lot of low-level managers lose their jobs -- those who have no idea what their staff do, and who's sole purpose is to ensure that the staff are sat at a screen.
The railway needs to adapt to what its customers want and not assume it can force customers to travel when the railway wants

This has always been the way, the railway industry treats passengers as annoyances that get in the way of them playing with their trainsets.
 

Purple Orange

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I can assure you that my professional experience, over decades, across the UK, allows me to have a wider view of the issues than your decade in the City of London (totally unrepresentative of the UK as a whole).
You need to get out and about a lot more!

To be honest, what @43066 is saying is a theme I view in Manchester. I work across offices in the City, Manc, Brum, Leeds & Edinburgh and the culture of face-to-face meetings can’t be underestimated. There will be a compromise though. It will never be 5 days per week, but it hasn’t been that way for years. It will also not be 2 days per week either.
 

yorksrob

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I think it was Weber in the 19thC who said "Man is a gregarious animal" (apologies for not being inclusive of women in the workforce) - in terms of community , and like it or not , unless you fancy being a lighthouse keeper (few vacancies these days) , better to have some form of real human interaction.

Even then, I'm sure I read that they had teams of three lighthouse keepers (in case one was out of action).
 

Wolfie

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As we're now on the brink of the easing of restrictions and unlimited travel domestically; along with non-essential shops, businesses and hospitality opening soon, I am wondering just how important is a substantial pick-up in numbers and how soon does it need to happen, in relation to job security in the railway industry?

We keep hearing these figures about the railway being £7 million in debt from last year (about £9 million spent and only £2 million in revenue). A railway job has been traditionally thought of as a job for life providing you don't do anything that is considered gross misconduct. The unions are still there to fight for jobs and there have been questions about railway job security for many years, more so since the McNulty report, but of little substance away from TfL. What are your thoughts about railway job security in relation to the hopeful pick up in passenger numbers; by how much and how soon do numbers need to pick up to keep the employment foundations strong? Taking into account mobile technology in relation to retail; DOO with guards; self dispatch with platform staff; computers with signalling etc.

There can be different views and opinions, and it can be about any kind of railway job...traincrew, booking office/retail, platform, cleaners, revenue protection, HR, accounts, customer services, control, planning etc.
Methinks that you are orders of magnitude out. Those figures certainly aren't millions. I fear that they are more like billions....

Replace million with billion and that's rather nearer to the actual figures!

Given the current government messaging regarding public transport (it was only 2 months ago that the 'Coronavirus takes the train too' adverts came out), I can't see any scenario in which passenger numbers, and crucially revenue, recover sufficiently quickly as to render this a moot issue.
Sorry, posted before l saw this and think that you are likely spot on.

To put it bluntly, a speedy return of Saturday shoppers and people going to the beach doesn't do much for the bottom line. Business travellers yield highly, though they can be quite fickle as they have the resources to get hold of alternatives at short notice, such as company cars, taxis, and last-minute flight tickets. Daily commuters, especially those who are buying longer than monthly season tickets, are the opposite. Usually low yield but very loyal indeed - they've got to get to work and if they buy that Season the revenue is very visible into the future. Leisure travellers are the worst of both worlds. They don't want to pay too much because they always have the option of staying at home, they'll be very much influenced by the uncontrollable weather in the case of things like seaside holidays and days out, and if the train isn't particularly conveniently timed or appears not to be of very good quality then they will not be compelled to return. Overwhelmingly they're also able to get discounts. Then there's an "other" category which is very small and will probably turn up come what may, including people travelling by rail for environmental reasons, staff and rail enthusiasts.
Very thoughtful and l suspect spot on.
 

ChiefPlanner

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Even then, I'm sure I read that they had teams of three lighthouse keepers (in case one was out of action).

Even then, I'm sure I read that they had teams of three lighthouse keepers (in case one was out of action).

Culture time - and maybe a tad off-record / topic.



To me , trying though it often was , the comrade and customer relations certainly beat a solitary staring at computer screen existance in a limited zone. Perhaps a better reference would be a National Park (USA) fire spotter !
 

Wolfie

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Of course, if we're able to cut costs in a substantial way, we're also able to use the same amount of money to run more trains.
True but you obviously haven't had many dealings with HMT.....

The Government has estimated future usage of (mainly commuter) services and believes that the bounce back in demand will be very low.
The Government needs to stem the £billion a month loss/subsidy.
The plan the Government will be delayed until after May elections.
There will be significant cuts in commuter services.
Based on my knowledge of politicians gained from working in Whitehall for far too long, that is eminently plausible. What is the timing of the May local elections vs the May rail timetable changes?
 

zwk500

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True but you obviously haven't had many dealings with HMT.....


Based on my knowledge of politicians gained from working in Whitehall for far too long, that is eminently plausible. What is the timing of the May local elections vs the May rail timetable changes?
Election is first week of May, so 1-2 weeks before the timetable change. However, service changes would be visible before that in journey planners, and publicity would be active before May to warn people where trains have changed.
 

Wolfie

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Money they won’t have to waste when employers start paying workers less.
Does anybody actually think that employers will not start cutting wages or at least offering vastly reduced salaries to new staff, when the workforce no longer has to travel to work?
London weighting must be at risk for a start... Conversely staff should expect employers to pick up the additional costs implicit in home working.
 

Ken H

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On the contrary, a decade spent working in city of London based professional roles means I have a very good understanding indeed of what these kinds of people do, and how face to face meetings always trump zoom calls.

Perhaps your own experience of these matters is somewhat lacking?!



Fully agreed.
Im a computer techie. I dont need to be in the office most of the time, I am just doing techie stuff on a computer. So 75% of my time I am not interacting, maybe more.
 

Wolfie

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employers will get wise on methods to measure home workers output. That will be reflected in pay awards at review time or maybe some people not having a job any more.
There are limits to the effectiveness of such methods. Mtgs for example can be essential to the business but have no measurable output.
 

bramling

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On the contrary, a decade spent working in city of London based professional roles means I have a very good understanding indeed of what these kinds of people do, and how face to face meetings always trump zoom calls.

Perhaps your own experience of these matters is somewhat lacking?!



Fully agreed.

For sure there’s a hell of a lot of working from home which *isn’t* able to achieve normal productivity.

Back in January I requested a specialist CCTV download relating to a potentially rather serious train door incident. It’s only just arrived, as the contractor concerned has only just returned to work as of this week.

It’s the same with numerous processes at my place, they’re either taking far longer than usual, or can’t be done - and the standard reason is that key people are WFH.

I’m sure there’s plenty of people who are able to do their full workload at home. But for every one of those I bet there’s another who is currently at home and only carrying out those elements of work which are practicable to do at home, and hoping they can permanently shelve the remaining elements of work.

Businesses may be quite happy to equip someone with a laptop and Zoom, however once it becomes necessary to utilise more specialist equipment the benefits of WFH quickly disappear.

In the medium term I don’t think it will catch on quite as much as people think.
 

Wolfie

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The answer to the question posed by the OP is one or more of the following words: massive, enormous, gigantic, stupendous, colossal, vast, mammoth, tremendous, immense, monumental

Leisure travel wont make up for a shortfall in commuting. Commuting isn't coming back at the levels it was before COVID. People have learned the benefits of working from home and shown increases in productivity while working in that manner. Sensible employers will see the benefits in productivity, saving on vast office spaces and transfering some of the support costs ( heat, light, internet, consumables etc) onto the worker. Job cuts are coming and they are coming very soon. The Tories will also be gunning for the dirty unions and for terms and conditions. Don't believe me? Look at the funding that has been pumped into the industry as a whole over the last year. The figures are incredible. While the government did the right thing in keeping the system running that cant carry on for much longer. The government are going to want /need that back somehow. The fare returns aren't going to cut it so that money has to come from cuts elsewhere.

PS don't get me started on people who think working from home means messing about all day. it is insulting and preposterous to suggest that, which is why Johnson did it.

PPS the housing market is possibly in for a shock also. The value of my house was that it was 45 minutes from London. Who needs to be 45 minutes from London these days?
All highly plausible.

I agree, but 100% home working wont be the answer for most. It is going to be a blend. Some time in the office, some time at home. The industry needs to work out how to cater for these people and provide tickets that deliver for both parties.
Yup. There are certain things in my job that just can't be done from home.
 
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