TheKnightWho
Established Member
Ah - I think I had been looking at incomplete numbers. A Tory boost near the end isn't surprising.
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How did the polls get it so wrong?
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Ah - I think I had been looking at incomplete numbers. A Tory boost near the end isn't surprising.
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My 2 cents.
1) there is form in the conservative vote being underestimated in the polls, people polled are possibly shy of admitting this?
2) the 'undecided' - there are a great many who choose which way to vote as they walk into the polling booth and/or do not really know the detail of each party's policies. Many will decide based on what they see of the party leaders. And, frankly, I suspect many could not see Miliband as the man to lead and represent this country.
1) there is form in the conservative vote being underestimated in the polls, people polled are possibly shy of admitting this?
2) the 'undecided' - there are a great many who choose which way to vote as they walk into the polling booth and/or do not really know the detail of each party's policies. Many will decide based on what they see of the party leaders. And, frankly, I suspect many could not see Miliband as the man to lead and represent this country.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
...or perhaps, the numbers of voters who actually voted for the party that won. Amazing to see that democracy is seen to be the correct method these days, but in the eyes of certain people, only if their own favoured party are the winners...
UKIP probably gave the victory to the Tories. A lot of people probably secretly like the idea of UKIP but knew it was a wasted vote, thus the next nearest was Conservative. The promise of a referendum likely helped too.
UKIP had no obvious plans for anything so was never credible.
Meanwhile Labour had a leader that wasn't fit to lead, and a shadow Chancellor that was repeatedly made to look stupid. Saying 'cost of living crisis' over and over didn't work, and the mansion tax wasn't going to raise enough money to be spent on just about everything - as seemed to be the case. How many times was this mentioned as some sort of unlimited pot of money?
What's more, many people probably realised that the 'nasty' rich people expected to pay for a huge spending spree under Labour likely included them. Basically anyone with a job above minimum wage would be considered fair game. There just aren't enough billionaires to fund a huge increase in spending.
Oh, and all the attempts on social media to get Labour in (including a last minute vote of approval from Russell Brand) probably failed to realise that a lot of young people can't actually be bothered to vote. Tweeting #gettoriesout and liking pages isn't actually enough to change Government. Facebook and Twitter failed miserably.
UKIP had no obvious plans for anything so was never credible.
Meanwhile Labour had a leader that wasn't fit to lead, and a shadow Chancellor that was repeatedly made to look stupid. Saying 'cost of living crisis' over and over didn't work, and the mansion tax wasn't going to raise enough money to be spent on just about everything - as seemed to be the case. How many times was this mentioned as some sort of unlimited pot of money?
What's more, many people probably realised that the 'nasty' rich people expected to pay for a huge spending spree under Labour likely included them. Basically anyone with a job above minimum wage would be considered fair game. There just aren't enough billionaires to fund a huge increase in spending.
Oh, and all the attempts on social media to get Labour in (including a last minute vote of approval from Russell Brand) probably failed to realise that a lot of young people can't actually be bothered to vote. Tweeting #gettoriesout and liking pages isn't actually enough to change Government. Facebook and Twitter failed miserably.
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TheKnightWho
Established Member
...or perhaps, the numbers of voters who actually voted for the party that won. Amazing to see that democracy is seen to be the correct method these days, but in the eyes of certain people, only if their own favoured party are the winners...
Except for the fact that FPTP is hideously undemocratic... We're having this debate in another thread, but it feels pretty unfair to wheel out the idea that it was just good old democracy and that's that.
TheNewNo2
Member
Over 10% of people voted UKIP, if anything they'd have COST Tories votes!
I wonder how much of it is the "shy Tories" effect?
Over the past five years I have noticed a considerable amount of rudeness and other unpleasant comments directed towards the Conservative party and its supporters on the internet, from supporters of left-leaning parties.
Perhaps this has resulted in people who want to support the Conservative party not wishing to declare this, should they become victims of these comments. In contrast, I have seen very few such comments about Labour supporters. One only has to look at the comments on the Facebook page of "Conservatives" versus those on "The Labour Party."
Over the past five years I have noticed a considerable amount of rudeness and other unpleasant comments directed towards the Conservative party and its supporters on the internet, from supporters of left-leaning parties.
Perhaps this has resulted in people who want to support the Conservative party not wishing to declare this, should they become victims of these comments. In contrast, I have seen very few such comments about Labour supporters. One only has to look at the comments on the Facebook page of "Conservatives" versus those on "The Labour Party."
CC 72100
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I think this, plus I believe that when push comes to shove, people would rather carry on with "the devil you know" as opposed to the one you are let to meet, in others words, are slightly afraid of change and so err on the side of caution by voting for 'more of the same'.
(Even though this time of course, with it being an absolute majority, it is not the same!)
Quite. At my sports club a couple of years back, a member who had been perfectly civil till then, called me a "F*****g Tory *******" on hearing I had voted Conservative - we have barely spoken since. Many of my Facebook "friends" had been quite vitriolic up to the election, and this has not improved. In social gatherings, I have been ignored or treated as an idiot if I question the correct view. I have a broad back and can cope, but it can be quite distressing.
But of course, as a "F*****g Tory *******", I am quite unfeeling and uncaring anyway.
I voted conservative.
I am a railway worker. A guard.
I have always held traditional conservative views. I would never consider voting for anybody else. I nearly didn't vote as I do have issues with the deviation of the Conservative party from the traditional.
If I had been asked a day or three before I would have said "undecided" as I had not decided if I was voting or not. I think there were probably a lot of undecideds who made the conservative choice late in the day.
I would also comment that if is very unpopular to admit you are a Tory. I was told in no uncertain terms by a colleague "There is no place on the railway for a Tory".
I am a railway worker. A guard.
I have always held traditional conservative views. I would never consider voting for anybody else. I nearly didn't vote as I do have issues with the deviation of the Conservative party from the traditional.
If I had been asked a day or three before I would have said "undecided" as I had not decided if I was voting or not. I think there were probably a lot of undecideds who made the conservative choice late in the day.
I would also comment that if is very unpopular to admit you are a Tory. I was told in no uncertain terms by a colleague "There is no place on the railway for a Tory".
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
I totally agree with what you say and would also add my comment that the stated unpleasantness will only make Conservative voters even more determined to register their vote for that particular political party,
I don't know...
Since I came out as a Tory (many years after coming out as gay - something far more acceptable within the industry it would seem) I have had a number of people tell me that they actually also have Tory tendencies.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
There remains huge resentment against the Conservative party in those communities that were severely affected by Thatcher's policies. However those are places where any "shy Tories" are unlikely to have been numerous enough to affect the result, as they would be safe Labour seats in England and now SNP in Scotland.
To my mind it is mostly down to the Conservatives' oft-repeated line on Labour needing SNP support, and people fearing that a Labour government would therefore lead to more powers for Scotland and ultimately the break-up of the UK. The irony is that the results of the election have made the latter more likely, and if Cameron truly believes in keeping the UK united he will have to do things that a big slice of his MPs and those who voted for him will not support.
To my mind it is mostly down to the Conservatives' oft-repeated line on Labour needing SNP support, and people fearing that a Labour government would therefore lead to more powers for Scotland and ultimately the break-up of the UK. The irony is that the results of the election have made the latter more likely, and if Cameron truly believes in keeping the UK united he will have to do things that a big slice of his MPs and those who voted for him will not support.
It is relevant. The difficulty with polls relates to matching proportion of vote with proportion of seats without having to ask millions of people each time. 33% of the votes can result in 10% of the seats under First Past The Post.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
Was it not the former leader of the Labour Party in Scotland who accused the Labour Party leadership of "treating them like a branch office" ?
edwin_m
Veteran Member
I'm not saying Labour in Scotland is exactly popular and there are reasons for that. My post was in response to the point about "shy Tories".
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
If you go back even further into history, you will find that the savage policies of William the Conqueror that were carried out in "The Harrying of the North" caused death by starvation to a great number of people. "Salting the croplands" was just one method used to ensure that crops to feed the local people would fail.
Though those events aren't within living memory in the way that the collapse of heavy industry is for certain sections of the North so they're hardly a relevant comparison as far as I can see.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
Just making a comparison to the fact that it is not just in recent times that "The North" has suffered at the hands of a ruling elite based in the south of England.
How about the decimation of the cotton industry in Lancashire...any thoughts on that more recent event?
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Simple question; Has anybody here ever been approached by political polsters? I am 61 and have never been asked and no one I know has ever been asked either. I guess my location has somthing to do with that but do any city dwellers have a different experience? Just how good is their profiling?
TheNewNo2
Member
Nope, never.
Tetchytyke
Veteran Member
From the archives, a fascinating article about "shy Tories"during the 1992 in the Guardian.
"Shy" as in "they didn't realise the Tory election agents changed their vote to a proxy vote and then voted Tory".
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/may/09/election2001.comment1
I'm absolutely positive that the gerrymanderers and the electoral fraudsters in the late 80s/early 90s Conservative Party have no influence at all these days.
"Shy" as in "they didn't realise the Tory election agents changed their vote to a proxy vote and then voted Tory".
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/may/09/election2001.comment1
I'm absolutely positive that the gerrymanderers and the electoral fraudsters in the late 80s/early 90s Conservative Party have no influence at all these days.
TheKnightWho
Established Member
The ones from the 80s and 90s maybe
On the other hand, the new calls for gerrymandering are less than welcome.
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
Of course, the saga of Derek Hatton and the Militant Tendency in that time period would surely have been a creation of those above in the Conservative Party at that time, as the Labour Party was like a beacon of unblemished virtue in those "good old days".. :roll:
Busaholic
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Five people in an old people's home in Penwith who had died between the electoral register coming out and postal votes going out voted Tory from beyond the grave: it was decided 'not to be in the public interest' to prosecute. The Conservative ex-councillor who 'collected' the votes lives barely 100 yards from me; her daughter, also an ex-councillor for the same party, at the recent election was displaying a large LibDem poster in her window!
My view is the polls were essentially right, but a lot of people looked at the polls and changed their vote particularly in marginal seats, I didn't change my vote at the last minute but the polls had a major influence on the way I voted, which I guess does beg the question should we ban polls during an election?
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ChiefPlanner
Established Member
I would have thought the so called decimation of the Lancashire Cotton Industry was inevitable - if not from about 1870 , by 1900 ....not making much sense to move raw material to process in the North of the UK , when it could (and was increasingly) done at the source of the raw material.
Only inertia (frankly) seemed to keep it going into the 1960's when the outdated equipment gave up...there must be some books on this..
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