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How does a pandemic end?

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al78

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Found this interesting video on YouTube which having watched it, seems to be quite objective. It asks how the current pandemic will end.


It looks back at historical pandemics, and concludes the COVID pandemic is most likely to end socially rather than medically, socially meaning people gradually get more and more fed up with the restrictions and populations transition into living a normal life whilst learning to live with the virus.
 
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HSTEd

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The virus kills the people it kills and doesn't kill the rest and fades into the background.
 

C J Snarzell

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It'll probably finally end sometime in 2025, when the High Streets are finally wiped out except for Primark and Home Bargains.

Amazon becomes the most profitable business in the Country.

Everyone drinks at home, because there are no pubs left. All socialising is done privately. Taxes go through the roof because the economy will be in the red until the turn of the century (when all of us have gone).

Two thirds of the UK population are claiming Universal Credit, and those that are working are mainly working from home.

Half of the UK population is overweight and suffers from angina or diabetes because all gyms and leisure facilities have gone.

Everyone born since 2005 will be either socialy inept or academic failures because of the impact Covid has had on Education.

The government will be under an independant party, because no one has voted for Labour or Tory at the previous election.

Boris Johnson & Carrie Symonds will have gone into witness protection under new identities to prevent someone murdering him.

CJ
 

philosopher

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It clearly does. We are not still in the grip of Bubonic plague or Spanish flu, so history shows that pandemics do end.

What annoys me is the theory that many people seem to have of what I have termed the ‘never ending pandemic hypothesis‘. The theory seems to be that Covid-19 infections will provide no immunity and Covid-19 if it mutates will remain as or become more deadly, meaning people will keep on getting reinfected until they eventually die from it.

As far as I know, there has never been a pandemic like this. Either the virus mutates to become weaker (e.g Spanish flu) or individuals gain enough immunity for it to no longer be a major risk for them (e.g Measles). Therefore for Covid-19 to be the one virus were these factors do not apply seems to me to be extremely unlikely.
 

Bantamzen

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It'll probably finally end sometime in 2025, when the High Streets are finally wiped out except for Primark and Home Bargains.

Amazon becomes the most profitable business in the Country.

Everyone drinks at home, because there are no pubs left. All socialising is done privately. Taxes go through the roof because the economy will be in the red until the turn of the century (when all of us have gone).

Two thirds of the UK population are claiming Universal Credit, and those that are working are mainly working from home.

Half of the UK population is overweight and suffers from angina or diabetes because all gyms and leisure facilities have gone.

Everyone born since 2005 will be either socialy inept or academic failures because of the impact Covid has had on Education.

The government will be under an independant party, because no one has voted for Labour or Tory at the previous election.

Boris Johnson & Carrie Symonds will have gone into witness protection under new identities to prevent someone murdering him.

CJ

Hell's teeth, shoot me now....
 

Bikeman78

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What annoys me is the theory that many people seem to have of what I have termed the ‘never ending pandemic hypothesis‘. The theory seems to be that Covid-19 infections will provide no immunity and Covid-19 if it mutates will remain as or become more deadly, meaning people will keep on getting reinfected until they eventually die from it.

As far as I know, there has never been a pandemic like this. Either the virus mutates to become weaker (e.g Spanish flu) or individuals gain enough immunity for it to no longer be a major risk for them (e.g Measles). Therefore for Covid-19 to be the one virus were these factors do not apply seems to me to be extremely unlikely.
I've heard people express this view and I agree that it's unlikely. Also, if it is true, what's to be gained by hiding in our houses? It will get us all in the end.
 

al78

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What annoys me is the theory that many people seem to have of what I have termed the ‘never ending pandemic hypothesis‘. The theory seems to be that Covid-19 infections will provide no immunity and Covid-19 if it mutates will remain as or become more deadly, meaning people will keep on getting reinfected until they eventually die from it.

As far as I know, there has never been a pandemic like this. Either the virus mutates to become weaker (e.g Spanish flu) or individuals gain enough immunity for it to no longer be a major risk for them (e.g Measles). Therefore for Covid-19 to be the one virus were these factors do not apply seems to me to be extremely unlikely.

I agree. History sometimes provides good guidance as to what will happen in the future.

At the moment we seem to be roughly following the lines of historical pandemics by social distance and restricting travel, and at some point we are going to get to the point where the weakest get killed off, and the rest build up enough immunity (maybe with the aid of a vaccine) that the virus runs out of people to infect. There is a lot of extreme criticism on here about lockdowns, masks and restrictions, but what is the alternative? Do we just remove restrictions and say we have to accept a high death toll and let the virus run its course, which almost sounds like saying the weakest are expendable? That might be a brutally logical solution, but it is not an ethical solution.

The periodic lockdowns seem to me analogous to putting meat in a freezer. When you purchase meat, it might have some bacteria on it (not enough to make you ill if you cook it properly). Putting it in the freezer doesn't kill the bacteria, it just makes it dormant and stops it multiplying. Take the meat out of the freezer, it defrosts and the bacteria that are still there begin multiplying again, which is why you are advised not to refreeze defrosted food. If you put it back in the freezer, the bacteria go dormant, but with a higher population than before. The bacteria is still there and presents the same health hazard, and all refreezing the meat does is slow down the multiplication, you still have to deal with the risk when you want to cook it and eat it. Periodic lockdowns like the imminent one seem to be doing the same as constantly putting the meat in the freezer, then easing lockdown is like defrosting the meat again.
 

43066

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Do we just remove restrictions and say we have to accept a high death toll and let the virus run its course, which almost sounds like saying the weakest are expendable? That might be a brutally logical solution, but it is not an ethical solution.

The ONS predicted that the last lockdown will produce circa.
200,000 non Covid related excess deaths. So where is the logic (or the ethics) in imposing a similar lockdown to prevent the forecast 85,000 deaths this winter?
 

kristiang85

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I was thinking in the shower this morning how countries with more hardline leaders (Belarus, Brazil, the US (!), Turkey, etc.) seem to let their citizens have far more COVID freedoms, yet the most liberal countries (Sweden apart) are the ones with their populations mostly locked down.

The disease is clearly going to become endemic; I think the best way to stop is it to stop testing asymptomatic people with PCR, and then develop a less sensitive test. This is mostly a casedemic now in the UK, borne out by the excess death figures.
 
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