How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[yorksrob]

If they've got the whole adult population vaccinated (which one would hope by next year) and they're still going on about restrictions, it'll be time to just get on with things.

 

[duncanp]

I think next winter we will need to return to the Catch It, Kill It, Bin It or Coughs and sneezes spread diseases slogans.

This means carrying a small packet of paper handkerchiefs, or sneezing into your armpit, if you are in an indoor public setting such as a crowded train.

The handkerchief or sneezing into your armpit fulfils the function of a temporary face covering, in that it reduced the number of droplets released into the air when you sneeze or cough.

People should also be encouraged to carry a small bottle of hand sanitiser with them when they are out and about, and I don't think it is too much of an issue if shops, pubs and railway stations continue to provide hand sanitiser for their customers to use.

There is nothing wrong in people wearing a face covering in future provided it is voluntary. Under no circumstances should face coverings be compulsory on a long term basis, and it should be illegal to refuse entry to someone on the grounds that they are not wearing a mask.

Other things that can be done without too much impact are making it easy to get a COVID test, possibly by having test kits on sale at pharmacies in the future. This way people who are working in high risk occupations (healthcare staff and teachers) can get tested on a regular basis.

 

[HSTEd]

So I would like to revise my estimate to - forever.

Boris has capitulated entirely to the Whitty/SAGE faction, and they will never allow lockdown easing to occur.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I suppose both of the articles belong here:

'No foreign holidays until 2022 possible' warns Professor Jason Leitch in leaked video

Scottish Government civil servants have been warned not to book a summer holiday abroad this year by the national clinical director in an internal video.

www.scotsman.com

Professor Jason Leitch goes on to warn civil servants that there may be no prospect of foreign holidays until 2022.

In the video, the Scottish Government clinical adviser answers questions from civil servants on various topics relating to Covid-19 vaccines and restrictions and said Scotland would come out of lockdown “very very slowly”.

Prof Leitch also indicated “occupational priorities” for vaccines will be announced by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) once more information on vaccine supply is known.

The video – leaked to The Scotsman – was published on Monday on the Scottish Government’s internal intranet.

Asked whether people should be booking summer holidays, Prof Leitch said he would advise against it and that freedom of movement restrictions could mean no foreign summer holidays until 2022.

He said: “I wouldn't book a non-refundable summer holiday if I were you. I might book a holiday in the autumn or Christmas time but even then I'm not entirely sure what the world will look like in terms of freedom of movement.”

Asked about the length of time current restrictions will be in place, Prof Leitch added that they will be in place for “a little bit longer” and restrictions would be eased “very very slowly”.

On Tuesday, Nicola Sturgeon announced an extension of restrictions until at least the middle of February.

In the video, Prof Leitch said: “I think we'll be in this version of lockdown for a little bit longer and then gradually – as we came in gradually – we'll go out gradually but it'll be slow - very very slow because we've learned now twice we've learned how quickly it is to go up and how slow it is to come down.”

He added that it is likely that Scotland would have to “learn what the post-Covid world looks like” and highlighted how the world learned to live with Spanish flu but added that process “would take a little while”.

Prof Leitch also suggested it would take cases dropping significantly before restrictions would begin to be eased due to concerns around public perception of the pandemic.

He said: “And one of the things we're worried about - Gregor and I were talking about it with the First Minister this week – one of the things we're worried about is resetting the country's expectations at 1,500 [cases per day] being a good thing.

"1,500 is not a good thing - it's awful and it has awful implications for those who get seriously unwell so we need to drop that number further down.”

Nicola Sturgeon has her say on fate of big events this summer

The First Minister said that it is likely to be a longer wait.

www.glasgowtimes.co.uk

Nicola Sturgeon has said not to expect large scale outdoor events to take place this summer.

The First Minister said that it is likely to be a longer wait.

She said: "If I'm asked will large scale events take place, the honest answer is no. I hope we will have restored a level of normality but we need to be realistic and pragmatic."

She said it was likely we would have to wait longer than this summer.

The organisers of Glastonbury have cancelled the festival again this year but Geoff Ellis, the boss of the Trnsmt festival in Glasgow, had said he was hopeful it go co ahead as planned. Hampden is also due to host Euro 2021 football matches in June.

Ms Sturgeon said she hoped a return to normality that allows event to take place would be as quick as possible once the vaccination programme was rolled out but added: "But will it be this summer, I can't say with any certainty."

Another 71 deaths have been registered of someone who tested positive for coronavirus.

The latest update given by Nicola Sturgeon showed there had been another 1480 positive cases in Scotland and 427 were in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area.

Ms Sturgeon said the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 increased by 49 to 2013 and there were 161 people in intensive care units with Covid, the same number as the day before.

She revealed there had been a total of 358,454 people given the first dose of the vaccine. The number meant that another 23,583 people have been vaccinated in the last 24 hours.

I have highlighted the key bits in bold. At this rate, 2021 is just going to be as much of a write off as 2020. Depressing as <enter expletive>.

 

[6862]

So I would like to revise my estimate to - forever.

Boris has capitulated entirely to the Whitty/SAGE faction, and they will never allow lockdown easing to occur.

I'll join you in predicting that.

I've just seen this quote on the BBC live news stream:

Patrick Vallance says he expects the virus “to be around, probably, forever" but it is going to be controlled.

As I see it, that pretty much equates to trying to control the virus forever - i.e. no return to freedom.

Long term, I predict:

- Permanent masks
- Total ban on indoor mixing to remain permanent
- Rule of 6
- Hospitality won't reopen
- Self isolation to remain

 

[brad465]

I suspect something that might help bring an end to social distancing is for one prominent country to experience and report on mass civil unrest in response to Covid restrictions, which then causes a domino effect where other countries follow suit. This is what happened in response to George Floyd's death worldwide, and we'd only need one or two countries to experience it. By this I don't mean just bog standard weekend protests, but a clear defiance of restrictions and protesting/rioting that lasts for days on end and thus causes inspiration for other countries' populations to follow suit.

I doubt we would be the first, but somewhere like Italy which has seen some Covid unrest before already, or France where the Gilet jaunes were prominent news at the time and evidence they can boil over more easily maybe likely starters. However, I won't try and put a guess on when exactly this might happen, only that I'm confident it won't be this winter remaining.

 

[DB]

I'll join you in predicting that.

I've just seen this quote on the BBC live news stream:



As I see it, that pretty much equates to trying to control the virus forever - i.e. no return to freedom.

Long term, I predict:

- Permanent masks
- Total ban on indoor mixing to remain permanent
- Rule of 6
- Hospitality won't reopen
- Self isolation to remain

I think there is an element of hysteria to this. It's simply not going to be possible for them to continue it for that much longer - the impacts on education, the economy and society in general are too great, and when cases and deaths plummet (which they will, both due to the vaccines and the time of year) it will be insupportable.

What does really need to be resisted though is any attempts to start reintroducing restrictions next Autumn.

 

[6862]

I suspect something that might help bring an end to social distancing is for one prominent country to experience and report on mass civil unrest in response to Covid restrictions, which then causes a domino effect where other countries follow suit. This is what happened in response to George Floyd's death worldwide, and we'd only need one or two countries to experience it. By this I don't mean just bog standard weekend protests, but a clear defiance of restrictions and protesting/rioting that lasts for days on end and thus causes inspiration for other countries' populations to follow suit.

I doubt we would be the first, but somewhere like Italy which has seen some Covid unrest before already, or France where the Gilet jaunes were prominent news at the time and evidence they can boil over more easily maybe likely starters. However, I won't try and put a guess on when exactly this might happen, only that I'm confident it won't be this winter remaining.

People this forum have been predicting unrest for some time, but unfortunately we haven't seen it materialise. I really hope we do see protests, but I doubt it. The majority of the population are too scared to do anything except comply with Our Benevolent, Most Wonderful, Supreme Leader Boris.

I think there is an element of hysteria to this. It's simply not going to be possible for them to continue it for that much longer - the impacts on education, the economy and society in general are too great, and when cases and deaths plummet (which they will, both due to the vaccines and the time of year) it will be insupportable.

What does really need to be resisted though is any attempts to start reintroducing restrictions next Autumn.

But as I keep on saying, they simply don't care at all about all the impacts their actions have! If they did, they would have ended this madness months ago (or better still never started it). They won't end it because they've sunk so much time and money into this 'strategy', and they're too proud to admit that their actions are harmful and wrong.

 

[takno]

As I see it, that pretty much equates to trying to control the virus forever - i.e. no return to freedom.

I'm fairly sure it was intended to mean ongoing vaccinations. The announcements are doom-laden enough without rolling out a laundry-list of conspiracy-grade nonsense

 

[brad465]

People this forum have been predicting unrest for some time, but unfortunately we haven't seen it materialise. I really hope we do see protests, but I doubt it. The majority of the population are too scared to do anything except comply with Our Benevolent, Most Wonderful, Supreme Leader Boris.

Yes that's why I didn't put a firm date on that other than it won't happen soon, as also believe if unrest spreads worldwide, it most likely will not start here. While mass unrest/disobedience is yet to be seen, protesting and low-level unrest has happened before in response to Covid measures, both here and in other countries.

 

[chris11256]

In all honesty I don’t take these press conferences seriously. The easy answer is that the government have been so badly burned over
promising before that this time they are doing the exact opposite being as pessimistic as possible.

It gives all the more chance for the government to claim credit when things do go well, like the current assumptions that the vaccine does nothing to prevent transmission, which is highly unlikely.

 

[birchesgreen]

People this forum have been predicting unrest for some time, but unfortunately we haven't seen it materialise. I really hope we do see protests, but I doubt it. The majority of the population are too scared to do anything except comply with Our Benevolent, Most Wonderful, Supreme Leader Boris.

Too many people in the UK seem to like lockdown and want it even harder. Was an amazing post in the Guardian fora i saw earlier which called for lockdown to last until 2022. Bonkers.

 

[DB]

Too many people in the UK seem to like lockdown and want it even harder. Was an amazing post in the Guardian fora i saw earlier which called for lockdown to last until 2022. Bonkers.

The Guardian does seem to be a real cheerleader for restrictions, so no surprises that there are similar views expressed by its readers (I used to be one, but not these days).

 

[bramling]

I'll join you in predicting that.

I've just seen this quote on the BBC live news stream:



As I see it, that pretty much equates to trying to control the virus forever - i.e. no return to freedom.

Long term, I predict:

- Permanent masks
- Total ban on indoor mixing to remain permanent
- Rule of 6
- Hospitality won't reopen
- Self isolation to remain

Even a few months ago I’d have said this was hyperbole. I’m beginning to have doubts now.

Some of these scientists really seem to be relishing the influence they now have on how people live their lives.

The Guardian does seem to be a real cheerleader for restrictions, so no surprises that there are similar views expressed by its readers (I used to be one, but not these days).

It does seem to be the case that plenty of people seem to like lockdown. One can only conject that they like the way of life where they have to do no thinking for themselves.

For balance perhaps the tv news should henceforth broadcast death figures from *all* (i.e. non-Covid) causes, along with the figure for what death rates would normally be for any given period. Just for balance. This focus on Covid death figures is unhealthy and alarmist.

 

[Chester1]

I suppose both of the articles belong here:

'No foreign holidays until 2022 possible' warns Professor Jason Leitch in leaked video

Scottish Government civil servants have been warned not to book a summer holiday abroad this year by the national clinical director in an internal video.

www.scotsman.com

Nicola Sturgeon has her say on fate of big events this summer

The First Minister said that it is likely to be a longer wait.

www.glasgowtimes.co.uk

I have highlighted the key bits in bold. At this rate, 2021 is just going to be as much of a write off as 2020. Depressing as <enter expletive>.

I suspect no foreign holidays in 2021 might be true for people who cannot WFH. Most EU members are not allowing Brits in for non essential travel now we are a "third country". Montenegro and Albania look like a good bet for a European beach holiday this summer. There is a reasonable argument for maintaining quarantine for all arrivals for the rest of 2021 to significantly reduce risk from new variants. The Polish app should be copied. You have regularly have to take a selfie within a specified period of time and it uses your phones GPS to verify that you took it at your registered place of quarantine. The suggestions of hotel quarantine are PR, its unmanageable because of the Northern Ireland sized hole in our border. The Irish Government has confirmed that it can't introduce hotel quarantining for most arrivals due to EU law. I would temporarily suspend all of our visa free travel arrangements and only give visas to people entering the UK for essential business and personal reasons. Brits could still go to whichever countries chose to allow Britsh tourists but they would have to quarantine on return. The extra domestic tourism would easily offset the loss of international tourist revenue (it accounted for just over a tenth of UK tourism in 2019).

 

[kez19]

Can I ask this then in relation to foreign holidays so what about the public “staycation” in the UK will this happen or are they just going to throw that in the gutter next?

Does seem the whole moving of goalposts, keep happening yet there is still no exit strategy or nothing but just provide more doom.

 

[Chester1]

Can I ask this then in relation to foreign holidays so what about the public “staycation” in the UK will this happen or are they just going to throw that in the gutter next?

Does seem the whole moving of goalposts, keep happening yet there is still no exit strategy or nothing but just provide more doom.

SNP will ban non essential travel to and from England for as long as possible. In terms of England, Wales and Northern Ireland tourism should resume with day trips within each country in tier 2 and 3, following by accommodation reopening and 3 nation travel in tier 1, probably in May or June.

I don't think the justification against restrictions on foreign travel will be that tourism is a serious risk to the individual, but that there is a risk of new variants entering the country. We could easily see foreign office travel advice against non essential travel being lifted but quarantine remaining in place for the rest of the year. That would give people the choice, go on a domestic holiday or go on a foreign holiday, taking covid tests and quarantining for 5-10 days. I would chose to go abroad, pay for tests and quarantine while I WFH.

 

[kez19]

SNP will ban non essential travel to and from England for as long as possible. In terms of England, Wales and Northern Ireland tourism should resume with day trips within each country in tier 2 and 3, following by accommodation reopening and 3 nation travel in tier 1, probably in May or June.

I don't think the justification against restrictions on foreign travel will be that tourism is a serious risk to the individual, but that there is a risk of new variants entering the country. We could easily see foreign office travel advice against non essential travel being lifted but quarantine remaining in place for the rest of the year. That would give people the choice, go on a domestic holiday or go on a foreign holiday, taking covid tests and quarantining for 5-10 days. I would chose to go abroad, pay for tests and quarantine while I WFH.

The first is not what I wouldn't rather hear if I am honest, I like going down south every now and again (i'm sure even on that part would backfire as she would moan about the lack of tourists up this way, even if they came from England)

Yet since and I doubt March I get anywhere, June was the backup but if we (Scotland) is not at same level as the rest that'll be another kick in the teeth for me (hope not!).

For me in general its the lack of information on both sides that nobody seems to clarify, they all come out with months (since it began) but when it gets closer its moved again, but I wish they all buck up their ideas and clarify when we are getting as close to normal.

 

[Chester1]

The first is not what I wouldn't rather hear if I am honest, I like going down south every now and again (i'm sure even on that part would backfire as she would moan about the lack of tourists up this way, even if they came from England)

Yet since and I doubt March I get anywhere, June was the backup but if we (Scotland) is not at same level as the rest that'll be another kick in the teeth for me (hope not!).

For me in general its the lack of information on both sides that nobody seems to clarify, they all come out with months (since it began) but when it gets closer its moved again, but I wish they all buck up their ideas and clarify when we are getting as close to normal.

The SNP have made significant gains by painting England as diseased. Last summer Scots were told to go on holiday in Scotland. With a ban already in place, simply not lifting it would allow them to get what they want. I expect in June you will be able to go on holiday in Scotland and go abroad subject to quarantine but non essential travel to England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be banned.

 

[kez19]

The SNP have made significant gains by painting England as diseased. Last summer Scots were told to go on holiday in Scotland. With a ban already in place, simply not lifting it would allow them to get what they want. I expect in June you will be able to go on holiday in Scotland and go abroad subject to quarantine but non essential travel to England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be banned.

She can get on her bike, she might have made gains but some up this way are naffed at Sturgeon so if she was meant to be that drastic I can see tide turning.

I don’t agree why she came away with England being diseased, Scotland has done badly too but it ain’t as rosy as it’s made out

Closest if it was in Scotland would be Glasgow but I’m wanting to return to at least Newcastle again and get use to areas down that way but I still stand that she can duck off

 

[Richard Scott]

Too many people in the UK seem to like lockdown and want it even harder. Was an amazing post in the Guardian fora i saw earlier which called for lockdown to last until 2022. Bonkers.

It's because they believe the nonsense and afraid aren't bothering to find out what they are actually dealing with. I'll stop short of calling them stupid but not too far short.

 

[DB]

It's because they believe the nonsense and afraid aren't bothering to find out what they are actually dealing with. I'll stop short of calling them stupid but not too far short.

The Guardian readership is generally well-educated too, which makes it worse that so many of them are just swallowing all the fearmongering.

 

[Richard Scott]

The Guardian readership is generally well-educated too, which makes it worse that so many of them are just swallowing all the fearmongering.

Unfortunately it seems education/qualifications and common sense don't necessarily go hand in hand. I work with a number of them.

 

[takno]

The Guardian readership is generally well-educated too, which makes it worse that so many of them are just swallowing all the fearmongering.

The trouble is that the guardian has historically been pretty good at carrying a diversity of opinion, and of had a decent editorial team focused on getting the truth out to a UK audience. The current editor is a disaster area though, and has put together a team obsessed with shallow identity politics, combined with an utterly hapless science editor and a joke of an economics editor. Top that with an unhealthy need to appeal to perhaps rather dimmer tribal US and Australian audiences, and replace the sub-editors with click air wranglers, and you've got a perfect storm. It's not the paper it was

 

[DB]

The trouble is that the guardian has historically been pretty good at carrying a diversity of opinion, and of had a decent editorial team focused on getting the truth out to a UK audience. The current editor is a disaster area though, and has put together a team obsessed with shallow identity politics, combined with an utterly hapless science editor and a joke of an economics editor. Top that with an unhealthy need to appeal to perhaps rather dimmer tribal US and Australian audiences, and replace the sub-editors with click air wranglers, and you've got a perfect storm. It's not the paper it was

Yes, I agree - and was already reading it a lot less even before this. The obsession with identity politics is particularly irritating.

 

[notlob.divad]

For balance perhaps the tv news should henceforth broadcast death figures from *all* (i.e. non-Covid) causes, along with the figure for what death rates would normally be for any given period. Just for balance. This focus on Covid death figures is unhealthy and alarmist.

Well I for one would be very supportive of National broadcasts of daily figures for deaths where the person has been in a road accident in the previous 28 days. (Arguably it should be significantly longer)

 

[island]

Understandable - they can't spend a fortune on organising it all without knowing what arbitrary restrictions the government will be making.

Not a surprise atall about Glastonbury being axed. I was expecting that, along with I expect most if not all festivals that are intended to take place in May and June. The government has indeed failed the events industry. So much for Oliver Dowden saying he expects the events industry to be back to normal by April! I am hopeful though that some of the smaller festivals during July/August/September may still be able to go ahead.

On Glastonbury specifically, it may be that they’re finding their virulently anti-Conservative attitude and expressions in previous years is coming back to bite them when they depend on the government to provide them an insurance backstop.

 

[DustyBin]

On Glastonbury specifically, it may be that they’re finding their virulently anti-Conservative attitude and expressions in previous years is coming back to bite them when they depend on the government to provide them an insurance backstop.

I think @brad465 suggested similar a couple of days ago. I’m a Conservative voter and to be honest festivals aren’t my scene, if true however it would be rather vindictive. Nothing would surprise me with this particular government....

 

[Carlisle]

Long term, I predict:

- Permanent masks
- Total ban on indoor mixing to remain permanent
- Rule of 6
- Hospitality won't reopen
- Self isolation to remain

I’d not go quite that far yet, but if this years major events like the Euros & Olympics, Wimbledon etc all end up cancelled or behind closed doors it’s fairly obvious the vaccine isn’t offering anything remotely resembling the return to normality we were promised, anytime soon, if at all in the foreseeable future

 

[DB]

On Glastonbury specifically, it may be that they’re finding their virulently anti-Conservative attitude and expressions in previous years is coming back to bite them when they depend on the government to provide them an insurance backstop.

The government seems no more keen to support sectors of the arts which appeal more towards Tory voters, so I doubt if it's that specific.