How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Dave91131]

I’d not go quite that far yet, but if this years major events like the Euros & Olympics, Wimbledon etc all end up behind closed doors, the vaccine simply isn’t likely to offer anything remotely resembling the game changer politicians have continually promised it’ll be, anytime soon

Specifically on the events referenced above I can't see any of them taking place with spectators in attendance, and wouldn't be surprised to see the Olympics cancelled or deferred again until 2022.

I can't see "back to normal" happening until 2022 at the earliest. It's all very well things beginning to re-open, but that and "back to normal" are very different things.

For example queuing outside shops unless they're at physical bursting point isn't normal. Limits on numbers of different household members in hospitality venues isn't normal. Compulsory masks on public transport, in shops etc isn't normal. Retail venues refusing cash isn't normal. Giving personal details for test and trace isn't normal. Seeing TV programmes with characters removing masks and stuffing them in their pockets or having them hanging off their ears isn't normal (not to mention the terrible example it sets to its audience in terms of what should be done in terms of hand washing etc). And that's just a few examples off the top of my head.

As I've stated before I really hope beyond hope that I'm wrong, but at present there's very little to convince me that 2021 will be anything other than a total washout and I'm already (on 23rd January) focussing on next year.

 

[Yew]

Specifically on the events referenced above I can't see any of them taking place with spectators in attendance, and wouldn't be surprised to see the Olympics cancelled or deferred again until 2022.

I can't see "back to normal" happening until 2022 at the earliest. It's all very well things beginning to re-open, but that and "back to normal" are very different things.

For example queuing outside shops unless they're at physical bursting point isn't normal. Limits on numbers of different household members in hospitality venues isn't normal. Compulsory masks on public transport, in shops etc isn't normal. Retail venues refusing cash isn't normal. Giving personal details for test and trace isn't normal. Seeing TV programmes with characters removing masks and stuffing them in their pockets or having them hanging off their ears isn't normal (not to mention the terrible example it sets to its audience in terms of what should be done in terms of hand washing etc). And that's just a few examples off the top of my head.

As I've stated before I really hope beyond hope that I'm wrong, but at present there's very little to convince me that 2021 will be anything other than a total washout and I'm already (on 23rd January) focussing on next year.

It's fairly easy to get back to normal, you stop the emergency powers and open everything back up, following the pre-existing pandemic plan that never even considered lockdowns, due to the damage they cause. We could do it tomorrow if we wanted.

 

[Bantamzen]

People this forum have been predicting unrest for some time, but unfortunately we haven't seen it materialise. I really hope we do see protests, but I doubt it. The majority of the population are too scared to do anything except comply with Our Benevolent, Most Wonderful, Supreme Leader Boris.



But as I keep on saying, they simply don't care at all about all the impacts their actions have! If they did, they would have ended this madness months ago (or better still never started it). They won't end it because they've sunk so much time and money into this 'strategy', and they're too proud to admit that their actions are harmful and wrong.

We have been predicting it for some time, and frankly I'm amazed it hasn't materialised en masse yet. However don't make the mistake of thinking that because it hasn't happened it won't. Underneath the compliance are a lot of people struggling financially & mentally. It won't take much to tip the balance, the government have basically being paying people off to keep compliance going, but when that runs out, well you figure it out.

 

[brad465]

We have been predicting it for some time, and frankly I'm amazed it hasn't materialised en masse yet. However don't make the mistake of thinking that because it hasn't happened it won't. Underneath the compliance are a lot of people struggling financially & mentally. It won't take much to tip the balance, the government have basically being paying people off to keep compliance going, but when that runs out, well you figure it out.

Indeed, we've also had some small scale protests even in this lockdown, so if you like we could argue the "breeding ground" for mass unrest eventually is there. There'll also need to be better weather for mass unrest going by historical cases of it, so I'm not expecting anything like this for a few more months at least.

 

[6862]

I think there is an element of hysteria to this. It's simply not going to be possible for them to continue it for that much longer - the impacts on education, the economy and society in general are too great, and when cases and deaths plummet (which they will, both due to the vaccines and the time of year) it will be insupportable.

What does really need to be resisted though is any attempts to start reintroducing restrictions next Autumn.

I'm fairly sure it was intended to mean ongoing vaccinations. The announcements are doom-laden enough without rolling out a laundry-list of conspiracy-grade nonsense

All I am predicting is a maintenance of the status quo. If I had predicted this a year ago I would have rightly been regarded as mad. But now our leader has become a lockdown maniac whose only goal is to suppress the population, and has made simple things like seeing family illegal, such predictions are far from improbable.

I suggest that the government will keep things like banning household interaction for two reasons. Firsrly they don't care at all about mental wellbeing, and secondly they regard Zoom as a substitute for real family gatherings (remember Hancock's comments at Christmas?). Masks will be permanent as they are regarded as a comfort blanket by a large proportion of the population. I think hospitality will never reopen because not only has it been devastated by repeated lockdowns, but also the government clearly doesn't care at all about the economic impact of keeping it closed.

 

[DustyBin]

People this forum have been predicting unrest for some time, but unfortunately we haven't seen it materialise. I really hope we do see protests, but I doubt it. The majority of the population are too scared to do anything except comply with Our Benevolent, Most Wonderful, Supreme Leader Boris.

But as I keep on saying, they simply don't care at all about all the impacts their actions have! If they did, they would have ended this madness months ago (or better still never started it). They won't end it because they've sunk so much time and money into this 'strategy', and they're too proud to admit that their actions are harmful and wrong.

We have been predicting it for some time, and frankly I'm amazed it hasn't materialised en masse yet. However don't make the mistake of thinking that because it hasn't happened it won't. Underneath the compliance are a lot of people struggling financially & mentally. It won't take much to tip the balance, the government have basically being paying people off to keep compliance going, but when that runs out, well you figure it out.

I agree with both of you. I never thought we’d reach this point without widespread protests or even civil unrest, but it appears we’ve come through the danger zone (from the government’s perspective) and the masses are now well and truly subjugated. It could all change though, some European populations are more volatile than ours and unrest elsewhere could be the trigger, or it may simply be that people start to wake up to reality, particularly those who have been temporarily bought off. Of course it may never happen, but something surely has to give at some point, and it doesn’t look like being the ending of restrictions.

 

[Bantamzen]

I agree with both of you. I never thought we’d reach this point without widespread protests or even civil unrest, but it appears we’ve come through the danger zone (from the government’s perspective) and the masses are now well and truly subjugated. It could all change though, some European populations are more volatile than ours and unrest elsewhere could be the trigger, or it may simply be that people start to wake up to reality, particularly those who have been temporarily bought off. Of course it may never happen, but something surely has to give at some point, and it doesn’t look like being the ending of restrictions.

Its already been happening in other countries. Italy for example has seen organised protests, and I'm sad to violence, from the various "Ultras" around the country. Of course its not reported much here, because the government fear that scenes of unrest abroad might stoke the fires at home. But regardless, when the Chancellor eventually announces the end of furlough along with tax rises lockdowns will become very unpopular very quickly.

 

[6862]

But regardless, when the Chancellor eventually announces the end of furlough along with tax rises lockdowns will become very unpopular very quickly.

That assumes that furlough ends. Will the government ever be able to wean the population off furlough?

 

[Bantamzen]

That assumes that furlough ends. Will the government ever be able to wean the population off furlough?

Furlough will end. Do you really believe the government will continue to pay for people to stay at home forever? No, they won't. In the coming months furlough will morph into Universal Credit. And when it does that's when the proverbial will hit the fan.

 

[DustyBin]

That assumes that furlough ends. Will the government ever be able to wean the population off furlough?

I’m sure those on the far left will want it to morph into some kind of universal basic income....

Furlough will end. Do you really believe the government will continue to pay for people to stay at home forever? No, they won't. In the coming months furlough will morph into Universal Credit. And when it does that's when the proverbial will hit the fan.

Posted at the same time!

 

[brad465]

Its already been happening in other countries. Italy for example has seen organised protests, and I'm sad to violence, from the various "Ultras" around the country. Of course its not reported much here, because the government fear that scenes of unrest abroad might stoke the fires at home. But regardless, when the Chancellor eventually announces the end of furlough along with tax rises lockdowns will become very unpopular very quickly.

According to the Financial Times (can't share the source under their copyright rules), Sunak has a Corporation Tax rise on the cards, which as has been said before will annoy Tory donors if implemented and likely their media backers as well. While a corporation tax rise won't hit the common population much, those who it will hit have great influence and power on the political stage and will use it to get the population against the Government, and in turn their restrictions that will be the first thing to blame for such a tax increase.

That assumes that furlough ends. Will the government ever be able to wean the population off furlough?

The furlough scheme is the most anti-Conservative policy I think they've ever used as a Conservative Government. Therefore the longer this goes on, the more uneasy their voter base, media backers and the like will get and the more they'll be inclined to try and stop it, especially if the above text about Corporation tax comes to being.

 

[6862]

Furlough will end. Do you really believe the government will continue to pay for people to stay at home forever? No, they won't. In the coming months furlough will morph into Universal Credit. And when it does that's when the proverbial will hit the fan.

I wouldn't put it past them. I think it's quite clear that this government doesn't stick to conservative economic policies despite its name.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think there is already a thread on furlough, but I wonder how many are currently thereon. It reached 9 million during the first lockdown but I doubt it's that high now. Saying that, not all teachers are required at the moment, non-essential retail is broadly shut and travel is still very much down.

 

[Bantamzen]

According to the Financial Times (can't share the source under their copyright rules), Sunak has a Corporation Tax rise on the cards, which as has been said before will annoy Tory donors if implemented and likely their media backers as well. While a corporation tax rise won't hit the common population much, those who it will hit have great influence and power on the political stage and will use it to get the population against the Government, and in turn their restrictions that will be the first thing to blame for such a tax increase.

As you rightly note, a Corporation tax will not go down well with Tory donors. Which is probably why they are dialling back on drastic changes in the March budget. But make no mistake, any rise in this will quickly be passed onto consumers, so we would feel it.

The furlough scheme is the most anti-Conservative policy I think they've ever used as a Conservative Government. Therefore the longer this goes on, the more uneasy their voter base, media backers and the like will get and the more they'll be inclined to try and stop it, especially if the above text about Corporation tax comes to being.

I'm amazed they've kept it going so long, but it is likely it won't last much longer. Not for ideological reasons, but simply cost.

I think there is already a thread on furlough, but I wonder how many are currently thereon. It reached 9 million during the first lockdown but I doubt it's that high now. Saying that, not all teachers are required at the moment, non-essential retail is broadly shut and travel is still very much down.

I've seen estimates between 2.5 & 5 million people. Its probably quite hard to nail down exact figures due to the ever changing regulations, but somewhere in that range seems about right.

 

[bramling]

I think there is already a thread on furlough, but I wonder how many are currently thereon. It reached 9 million during the first lockdown but I doubt it's that high now. Saying that, not all teachers are required at the moment, non-essential retail is broadly shut and travel is still very much down.

I'm not sure it's actually the furloughs that are the biggest problem at the moment - surely a good proportion of them must be realising that the longer this goes on for the higher the chance is there won't be a job for them to return to, whilst meanwhile their finances take some element of hit from the 80%.

I think the work from homes are the more vocal, especially your stereotypical home counties with garden types who detest their outer suburban commute.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'm not sure it's actually the furloughs that are the biggest problem at the moment - surely a good proportion of them must be realising that the longer this goes on for the higher the chance is there won't be a job for them to return to, whilst meanwhile their finances take some element of hit from the 80%.

I think the work from homes are the more vocal, especially your stereotypical home counties with garden types who detest their outer suburban commute.

I think this has been mentioned before, possibly on this very thread, but most Home Counties WFH types will be itching to get back into the office...

However, they will not be itching to do their old commute every day!

 

[DB]

I think the work from homes are the more vocal, especially your stereotypical home counties with garden types who detest their outer suburban commute.

That does seem to be the case - and many of those people who refuse to work in offices even occasionally because they are toxic death-traps are quite happy for those running the business support functions to carry on going in to keep everything running which allows them to work at home...

I think this has been mentioned before, possibly on this very thread, but most Home Counties WFH types will be itching to get back into the office...

That's not my experience (OK, not home counties, but doubt it's much different). There are certainly people who don't like working at home, and in the middle part of the year were going into offices voluntarily quite a lot. But there are also the committed WFH-ers who want this to carry on for as long as possible, and they are the vocal ones.

 

[yorksrob]

I think this has been mentioned before, possibly on this very thread, but most Home Counties WFH types will be itching to get back into the office...

However, they will not be itching to do their old commute every day!

As a reluctant work from homer who managed to get back to the office a couple of days a week last year, I found the commute a lot more pleasurable and less stressful than prior to the pandemic (the schlep around Leeds' one way system excepted). Those who do give it a go, might find a better experience if numbers have dropped.

 

[DB]

As a reluctant work from homer who managed to get back to the office a couple of days a week last year, I found the commute a lot more pleasurable and less stressful than prior to the pandemic (the schlep around Leeds' one way system excepted). Those who do give it a go, might find a better experience if numbers have dropped.

I've been doing it at least once a week during both this and the previous lockdown (across Yorkshire). Leeds station is annoying, but other than that the trains are generally fine - just need to watch out for the reduced timetables!

 

[bramling]

As a reluctant work from homer who managed to get back to the office a couple of days a week last year, I found the commute a lot more pleasurable and less stressful than prior to the pandemic (the schlep around Leeds' one way system excepted). Those who do give it a go, might find a better experience if numbers have dropped.

The ones round my way won't even entertain it. The office is lethal, and the train is full of dirty people who don't wash their hands after using the toilet (quote lifted straight from one of the have your say webpages, this one relating to masks).

They're too wedded to their new zombie-existence. Even more so when the inevitable "you can travel an unlimited distance for recreation" easement comes in, and they can all flock to places like Durdle Door and "work" from there...

 

[yorksrob]

I've been doing it at least once a week during both this and the previous lockdown (across Yorkshire). Leeds station is annoying, but other than that the trains are generally fine - just need to watch out for the reduced timetables!

They generally keep the hourly stopper on my line, which is easy enough to remember, since it's the one that stops at my station anyway !

The ones round my way won't even entertain it. The office is lethal, and the train is full of dirty people who don't wash their hands after using the toilet (quote lifted straight from one of the have your say webpages, this one relating to masks).

They're too wedded to their new zombie-existence. Even more so when the inevitable "you can travel an unlimited distance for recreation" easement comes in, and they can all flock to places like Durdle Door and "work" from there...

That does offer up some intriguing rail served opportunities of working from nice locations.

A friend of mine took early retirement and ended up working her last days from home in Portugal !

 

[philosopher]

All I am predicting is a maintenance of the status quo. If I had predicted this a year ago I would have rightly been regarded as mad. But now our leader has become a lockdown maniac whose only goal is to suppress the population, and has made simple things like seeing family illegal, such predictions are far from improbable.

I suggest that the government will keep things like banning household interaction for two reasons. Firsrly they don't care at all about mental wellbeing, and secondly they regard Zoom as a substitute for real family gatherings (remember Hancock's comments at Christmas?). Masks will be permanent as they are regarded as a comfort blanket by a large proportion of the population. I think hospitality will never reopen because not only has it been devastated by repeated lockdowns, but also the government clearly doesn't care at all about the economic impact of keeping it closed.

I do not think there will be civil unrest but I do think if lockdown continues for too long there will come a point where the majority of people simply ignore the law and the lockdown will in effect become unenforceable. Lets say there are two or three groups from different households having a picnic in a park, the police can quite easily fine them. However what if there are a 100 groups doing the same. By the time the police have got round to fining them all, most of them left anyway. The UK is ultimately not a police state and so any lockdown to a large extent relies on public goodwill.

In this case I suspect the government would end or ease the lockdown as the lockdown would no longer be achieving anything.

The ones round my way won't even entertain it. The office is lethal, and the train is full of dirty people who don't wash their hands after using the toilet (quote lifted straight from one of the have your say webpages, this one relating to masks).

They're too wedded to their new zombie-existence. Even more so when the inevitable "you can travel an unlimited distance for recreation" easement comes in, and they can all flock to places like Durdle Door and "work" from there...

The weirdiest thing about it is that if you said to someone a couple of years ago that you were not going into the office or use the train because I might pick up a bug there you would have probably been looked at as a paranoid germaphobe.

 

[6862]

The UK is ultimately not a police state

I think this was true a year ago, but definitely not today!

 

[brad465]

I do not think there will be civil unrest but I do think if lockdown continues for too long there will come a point where the majority of people simply ignore the law and the lockdown will in effect become unenforceable. Lets say there are two or three groups from different households having a picnic in a park, the police can quite easily fine them. However what if there are a 100 groups doing the same. By the time the police have got round to fining them all, most of them left anyway. The UK is ultimately not a police state and so any lockdown to a large extent relies on public goodwill.

In this case I suspect the government would end or ease the lockdown as the lockdown would no longer be achieving anything.

By some definitions what you've described is civil unrest. Our Police force also has been subjected to cuts from the austerity years and the efforts to recruit 20,000 more as Johnson proclaimed are neither complete yet or going to reverse all the previous cuts, which ultimately makes a police state harder to enforce.

 

[Mintona]

I see it is being reported in The Telegraph this evening that the legislation for lockdown has been extended from March to 17th July.

 

[Chester1]

More media reports this evening that the government may announce on Monday compulsory hotel quarantine for all arrivals into the UK (paid for by individual). How they intend to stop people flying to Ireland and entering the UK across the land border I don't know!

The Polish app using selfies and GPS to make sure people are staying at home during quarantine should be more than enough. If the justification is to stop new variants, then there would be no exit strategy. New variants will keep emerging, year after year.

 

[yorksrob]

I see it is being reported in The Telegraph this evening that the legislation for lockdown has been extended from March to 17th July.

Perhaps this will see the Tory party finished, once and for all.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I see it is being reported in The Telegraph this evening that the legislation for lockdown has been extended from March to 17th July.

Its extending powers to local councils but yet again its done covertly rather than through parliament - this is what a police state does

 

[yorksrob]

I'm beginning to think that these people in Government ought to end up in prison for their actions.

 

[DB]

I see it is being reported in The Telegraph this evening that the legislation for lockdown has been extended from March to 17th July.

Ridiculous.

Even with no intervention (i.e. vaccines) at all, cases would be dropping considerably from the middle of March simply due to the time of year.