How much support will the Lib Dems gain over the next 5 years?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by jcollins, 8 May 2015.

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  1. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    The Conservatives have managed to take credit for the raising of the personal allowance (a Lib Dem proposal which Cameron said wouldn't work before the last election) and haven't got much flack for the policies the Lib Dems blocked (like the inheritance tax changes) because most voters wouldn't have benefited from them.

    On the other hand the Lib Dems have received a lot of flack for negotiating the terms of rising university tuition fees rather than blocking the move.

    I personally think the Lib Dems will gain support as the Conservatives start implementing the policies which will only be popular with the rich that the Lib Dems managed to block as part of a Coalition.
     
  2. Paul Sidorczuk

    Paul Sidorczuk Veteran Member

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    I foresee a very long and slow road for Liberal Democrat acceptance once again, with far more than the 5 years needed to achieve this.
     
  3. telstarbox

    telstarbox Established Member

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    With only 8 MPs and no ministers this time round, they won't have much of a profile either.

    General party membership is likely to decline which reduces the ability to campaign locally.
     
  4. NSEFAN

    NSEFAN Established Member

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    Agreed. If it's not the libdems then it will be someone else. We're already seeing suggestions that the Conservatives will have another stab at their unworkable snooper's charter. :roll:
     
  5. GrimsbyPacer

    GrimsbyPacer Established Member

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    In my area the Lib Dems are very popular on the council, and hated in government as they sold Royal Mail and other Tory type things.
    Now a Lib Dem vote won't help Tories or anyone else I expect them to gain seatsnow Nick Clegg has gone. He was a big ptoblem for voters who showed their anger.

    However, as the voting system is biased to the biggest party in all general election it will be difficult. Their 8 seats is lucky if you look at the poor Green's, Ukip, who both got totally ripped off. While SNP, DUP, UUP all got alot of seats for their votes because of regional concentration which the others don't have.
     
  6. Arctic Troll

    Arctic Troll Established Member

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    It's only going to be in this parliament that we see just how much the Lib Dems protected us from the excesses of the current Tories' sociopathy.

    Sadly, it will be too little and too late. I can see the Lib Dems bouncing back up to 20 or so MPs at the next election- the West Country lot who defected to the Tories will come back after five years of the Nasty Party- but it'll be a very long time before they'll be as successful as they were in the early 2000s.

    That said, the Lib Dems have been here before; in 1989 they finished behind the Greens in the EU elections. They'll come back. But it took Ashdown a decade to achieve it last time.
     
  7. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    How long before Clegg resigns his seat to take a nice cushy job, probably in Europe? I'd give it a year max, during which time his appearances in the House will probably equal Gordon Brown's in the last parliament. Leadership of the 'group' between Norman Lamb and Tim Farron IMO.
     
  8. TheJRB

    TheJRB Established Member

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    I agree. When you look at the Sussex seats of Lewes and Eastbourne, two popular local MPs were ousted.

    On the local news it was said that a lot of Lib Dem voters wanted to get back at them for entering the coalition but split between Labour and the Greens thus letting the Conservatives in. I reckon the same thing happened in a lot of the 'Con gain from LD' seats.
     
  9. Jonny

    Jonny Established Member

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    I think the LDs will get very little support - especially when their carrier bag charge kicks in later this year.
     
  10. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    2,000 new members in one day. Now the Tories will have to accept responsibility for their own policies I expect we'll see a resurgence.
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    This. I weighed up between the two (as I was voting on principle in my Labour safe seat) and went for the LDs in the end. I still can't stand Green party science and energy policy as long as it's against animal testing and nuclear power. Very nearly went MRL, but thought that even though the LDs and Greens will lose it counts towards the important statistics.
     
    Last edited: 9 May 2015
  11. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    I had the same decision, though mine was between Greens, Labour (safe) and a random anti-corruption campaigner. Greens are wrong on a lot of things (HS2, the monarchy...) but I too wanted them to have higher poll numbers for post-election arguing.
     
    Last edited: 9 May 2015
  12. fowler9

    fowler9 Established Member

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    I have been a lib dem voter for many years but after the last general election I will never vote for them again. Not to teach them a lesson but because I won't vote for anyone who gets in to bed with the Tories. Just a personal opinion.They won't miss my vote with the current electoral system anyway because I am in a safe Labour seat. Why is it safe? Because no one votes for what they believe in, whats the point. Where I live also has a tiny turnout to vote.
     
  13. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    To go back to the original question, decades if at all. David Steel certainly thinks so, Ashdown is gung-ho as usual but who takes any notice of him? Actually, far too many took notice of him in the LD leadership and helped their complacency along, Here in Cornwall, with no Liberal representation for the first time in decades, but where Labour has never got any sort of hold except briefly in Camborne, there is talk of a new left(ish) movement being created to counteract the onslaught of True Blues, with disaffected LibDem and Labour supporters coming together, and those for whom neither of those parties offered much.
     
  14. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    No one should trust Ashdown until he is seen literally eating a hat.
     
  15. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    Now at 3000 new members.
     
  16. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    But (A) how many lost since 2010 and (B) how many re-joiners?
    In the West Country, the only LibDem seat lost by a slight swing was St Ives, with Torbay a bit more: in some of the seats, and others where LibDem had been a close second like Camborne they were slaughtered. Nick Harvey in North Devon quoted in Western Morning News reiterating the old rubbish about history judging the coalition well. Get real, 'Sir' Nick.
     
    Last edited: 9 May 2015
  17. Welly

    Welly Member

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    One of my colleagues said that before 2010 the Lib Dems used to promise the Earth since they never expected to be in power.
     
  18. imagination

    imagination Member

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    a) About 20000. So this is about 15% of that so far - not a huge number but not bad for about a day and a half. It'll go up more.
    b) There's no way to know. But does that really matter? An increase in membership is an increase in membership whether it comes from people who abandoned the party in the past or from new people.
     
    Last edited: 9 May 2015
  19. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    A bit like the Greens now who would have everyone in full time jobs on at least £18,200 a year, working no more than 7 hours a day based on a 5 day week.

    Personally ignoring the Green's manifesto that I think would take 15-20 years to implement, I think the Lib Dems had the best manifesto this time. Labour had a few good ideas but the rest of it was fairly dull. The Conservatives have a few good ideas but then they have some I strongly oppose.

    So overall I would have preferred a Labour-Lib Dem Coalition.
     
  20. AM9

    AM9 Established Member

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    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    There's nothing wrong with a 35 hour week. Our major competitors in Europe get higher productivity without the ridiculous 'presentism' hours that qualify employees as 'hardworking people' according to many employers and right-wing politicians.
     
    Last edited: 9 May 2015
  21. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    France introduced a maximum 35 hour week some years ago, and productivity there is markedly better than ours.
     
  22. CC 72100

    CC 72100 Established Member

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    I must have unfortunately dreamt only working 35 hours in France, with a mass exodus from my office at 5pm, after having arrived at 9 with a one-hour lunch break everyday.

    That didn't happen. In my office, people worked beyond their contracted and paid-for hours like anywhere else. My average week was probably around 40 hours (€436 month internship, based on 35 hour week) and I imagine that given the fact that their lunch breaks were either only 30 minutes or inexistant, my colleagues probably did 45 - 50 hours a week,

    (I realise that may come across as a personal snipe at you; apologies if it did. It was more so meant as a bit of a myth-debunker)
     
  23. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    I have no personal experience of working in France, so defer to you on that. I'm only going on what was announced to have happened, just as on productivity figures I only see what government produces as fact and have no independent way of verifying any of it!
    No offence has been taken at this end, indeed thanks for clarifying the reality.
     
  24. CC 72100

    CC 72100 Established Member

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    It was only 8 months, so I'm only one case. I'm sure their are perhaps better-run companies where the 35 hours are more respected! ;)

    However, based on the times that would receive messages from clients, I think it was more like a 35 hour paid week, with pretty much compulsory overtime dictated by the workload existing in french companies in a similar way to as it does over here.

    In short, not everybody downed tools and walked home at 5; they just stopped being paid then!
     
  25. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying it would take more than a few years to implement.

    A lot of people who are paid £10/hour or more are on contracts which require them to work more than 35 hours/week and they wouldn't necessarily be happy to go down to 35 hours/week contracts if it means their salary proportionally decreases. Obviously people on low salaries could get more money for working less hours so a win win for them.

    People on zero hours and seasonal contracts objected to implementing a mandatory 48 hour maximum week in line with what Brussels wanted EU wide. I think the end result was employees can opt out but employers can't make you do more than 48 hours.
     
  26. deltic

    deltic Established Member

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    around 5,000 new members now in just 48hrs. If the next few budgets really do follow through on Tory statements about slashing spending and welfare then there will be some bounce back. Depends whether people who voted Greens become even more disillusioned - 1m votes and only 1 seat and go back to voting Lib Dem.
     
  27. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    I'm not surprised.

    When companies here experience a drop in workload and need to cut staff they often cut staff further than the number required to do the work left within contracted hours, so a 25% fall in work load can result in a 33% cut in staff. That makes it practically impossible for the remaining people to do their jobs within the contracted hours then there's no chance of getting overtime pay because the company apparently has no money and no chance of getting hours back because there's no quiet days when you can finish early to make up for the extra hours you've done.

    That's another reason why I don't think a 35 hour week could be implemented overnight. It would have similarities with reducing staff numbers.
     
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