How will new travel patterns affect the Railway?

[irish_rail]

I am interested to see how the railway will go forward in the medium term post covid.
There are rumours out there that the government will be asking the TOCs for some big sacrifices in order for continuing support over the next two years.
We have already seen B*ris demand the tube go driver less in order to keep its funding, so what do people think we are likely to see on the mainline?

 

[stuu]

We have already seen B*ris demand the tube go driver less in order to keep its funding, so what do people think we are likely to see on the mainline?

When was that? That wouldn't be possible without spending billions on resignalling, but then Boris and reality aren't often seen in the same room

 

[geoffk]

The money provided to keep the trains running with so few passengers will have to be recovered somehow, unless we want see another Beeching or Serpell. I would think DCO will reappear on the agenda for Northern. On the other hand there will be efficiency savings from reducing the fragmentation which has resulted from franchising and, on some routes, reducing the number of trains to a more sensible level, e.g. York - Newcastle, Newcastle - Edinburgh and Manchester - Leeds.

 

[irish_rail]

The money provided to keep the trains running with so few passengers will have to be recovered somehow, unless we want see another Beeching or Serpell. I would think DCO will reappear on the agenda for Northern. On the other hand there will be efficiency savings from reducing the fragmentation which has resulted from franchising and, on some routes, reducing the number of trains to a more sensible level, e.g. York - Newcastle, Newcastle - Edinburgh and Manchester - Leeds.

I think you are right. I think DOO will be inevitable now, plus fewer duplicating services. I can see the 4 tph to Bristol quietly dropped, plus the half hourly cornish service looks vulnerable in my opinion .

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would say we may see something like:
- DOO (without OBS) on all local trains
- DCO (with OBS) on all InterCity type trains
(i.e. the complete abolition of the Guard grade)

- Mass ticket office closures, ticketing to be via TVMs and online/mobile only other than at very large major stations
- Reduction in platform staff, with driver self dispatch becoming the norm
- Rationalisation of excessive frequencies, e.g. the likes of 6tph across the Pennines down to a more sensible 4 but with longer trains
- Removal of peak extras, with an all day Takt being operated due to reduced commuter demand (i.e. all-week Saturday style timetables)
- A new fare system which will be overall revenue positive to reduce subsidy

If any of this triggers strikes we may see legislation to ban them; we are talking about Tories here.

There is also possibly the risk of closure of a small number of "token" routes. The Conwy Valley may well be safe because the Welsh Government are responsible for it, not Westminster, but I would suggest that the likes of the middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast or the Whitby branch could well be vulnerable, as could any route requiring considerable sums of money spending on it e.g. the way the S&C did a few years ago.

We might see HS2 canned or descoped, but as the funding model for that is mostly borrowing from future fares income probably not. Similar for EWR (the building of which is likely to save the Marston Vale which might otherwise be a closure candidate).

 

[futureA]

I would say we will see something like:
- DOO (without OBS) on all local trains
- DCO (with OBS) on all InterCity type trains
(i.e. the complete abolition of the Guard grade)

- Mass ticket office closures, ticketing to be via TVMs and online/mobile only other than at very large major stations
- Reduction in platform staff, with driver self dispatch becoming the norm
- Rationalisation of excessive frequencies, e.g. the likes of 6tph across the Pennines down to a more sensible 4 but with longer trains
- Removal of peak extras, with an all day Takt being operated due to reduced commuter demand (i.e. all-week Saturday style timetables)
- A new fare system which will be overall revenue positive to reduce subsidy

If any of this triggers strikes we may see legislation to ban them; we are talking about Tories here.

There is also possibly the risk of closure of a small number of "token" routes. The Conwy Valley may well be safe because the Welsh Government are responsible for it, not Westminster, but I would suggest that the likes of the middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast or the Whitby branch could well be vulnerable, as could any route requiring considerable sums of money spending on it e.g. the way the S&C did a few years ago.

We might see HS2 canned or descoped, but as the funding model for that is mostly borrowing from future fares income probably not. Similar for EWR (the building of which is likely to save the Marston Vale which might otherwise be a closure candidate).

I think you have it spot on. As much as I hate to say it the role of the railway will decline from now on since so many office workers have realised they prefer not commuting.

I agree that we will see a dramatic reduction in staffing and a reduction in frequencies.
I do not think that we will see a Beeching type closure program for the foreseeable future but we may very well see a reduction in infrastructure. Perhaps some double lines going down to single and some quadruple lines going down to double.

Before long some of our city centre termini will be deemed too large and the land will be sold off for redevelopment. Of course this will be difficult since many stations are listed buildings

As much as I would have loved to have seen HS2 built I would imagine it's businesses case has completely evaporated. The congestion argument has been solved through other means.

 

[JonathanH]

I think you have it spot on. As much as I hate to say it the role of the railway will decline from now on since so many office workers have realised they prefer not commuting.

I agree that we will see a dramatic reduction in staffing and a reduction in frequencies.
I do not think that we will see a Beeching type closure program for the foreseeable future but we may very well see a reduction in infrastructure. Perhaps some double lines going down to single and some quadruple lines going down to double.

Before long some of our city centre termini will be deemed too large and the land will be sold off for redevelopment. Of course this will be difficult since many stations are listed buildings

As much as I would have loved to have seen HS2 built I would imagine it's businesses case has completely evaporated. The congestion argument has been solved through other means.

If what you and 'Bletchleyite' are saying is really true, we could probably afford to implement rather heavy road pricing (and rationing) and try to force custom to the railway using the spare capacity. It isn't quite all over yet and rationalising track layouts is a bit drastic at this point.

If no one is going back to cities there isn't going to be much demand for 'redevelopment'.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If what you and 'Bletchleyite' are saying is really true, we could probably afford to implement rather heavy road pricing (and rationing) and try to force custom to the railway using the spare capacity. It isn't quite all over yet and rationalising track layouts is a bit drastic at this point.

If no one is going back to cities there isn't going to be much demand for 'redevelopment'.

I think road pricing will be necessary in the coming years anyway due to electric vehicles (they won't give up all that tax!) so yes, that may well also be applied in some way.

One thing important to bear in mind is that on many routes, particularly around London, the reduction in commuters will actually save considerable sums of money. Additional peak capacity is really expensive to provide, particularly peak extra trains, requiring expensive modern rolling stock which basically operates one return journey per day and a higher level of staffing. It's likely that reduction to an all day Saturday style timetable will be possible - enough capacity will be able to be provided by way of standing space (perhaps we'll see more trains with a 70x style layout?) and by just lengthening maybe 4-5 peak trains in each direction in the manner that Merseyrail does. And most users of those peak trains are on monthly or longer seasons, so they pay per return journey often similar to or less than an off peak walk-up, so they don't pay for it either.

That would allow redeployment of considerable quantities of rolling stock, which would allow ex-BR EMUs to be wiped out entirely (not that there's many left) and potentially also considerable DMU replacement if it meant Chiltern could release some 170s to cascade and replace 150s.

So it's not all bad.

 

[JonathanH]

And most users of those peak trains are on monthly or longer seasons, so they pay per return journey often similar to or less than an off peak walk-up, so they don't pay for it either.

Yes, and they are all going to demand travel at 40% of their current season ticket price for only going to work two days a week.

 

[irish_rail]

I would say we may see something like:
- DOO (without OBS) on all local trains
- DCO (with OBS) on all InterCity type trains
(i.e. the complete abolition of the Guard grade)

- Mass ticket office closures, ticketing to be via TVMs and online/mobile only other than at very large major stations
- Reduction in platform staff, with driver self dispatch becoming the norm
- Rationalisation of excessive frequencies, e.g. the likes of 6tph across the Pennines down to a more sensible 4 but with longer trains
- Removal of peak extras, with an all day Takt being operated due to reduced commuter demand (i.e. all-week Saturday style timetables)
- A new fare system which will be overall revenue positive to reduce subsidy

If any of this triggers strikes we may see legislation to ban them; we are talking about Tories here.

There is also possibly the risk of closure of a small number of "token" routes. The Conwy Valley may well be safe because the Welsh Government are responsible for it, not Westminster, but I would suggest that the likes of the middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast or the Whitby branch could well be vulnerable, as could any route requiring considerable sums of money spending on it e.g. the way the S&C did a few years ago.

We might see HS2 canned or descoped, but as the funding model for that is mostly borrowing from future fares income probably not. Similar for EWR (the building of which is likely to save the Marston Vale which might otherwise be a closure candidate).

I think u make a fair point on strikes. I think the T*ries will ban rail workers striking in order to get whatever changes through, and , unfortunately I think this will be seen as acceptable by the wider public who still see unions as bad and government as good.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes, and they are all going to demand travel at 40% of their current season ticket price for only going to work two days a week.

Are they? I would expect a discount from the Anytime fare for carnets but nowhere near to that level. 10% off seems to be the going rate so far.

 

[futureA]

I think road pricing will be necessary in the coming years anyway due to electric vehicles (they won't give up all that tax!) so yes, that may well also be applied in some way.

One thing important to bear in mind is that on many routes, particularly around London, the reduction in commuters will actually save considerable sums of money. Additional peak capacity is really expensive to provide, particularly peak extra trains, requiring expensive modern rolling stock which basically operates one return journey per day and a higher level of staffing. It's likely that reduction to an all day Saturday style timetable will be possible - enough capacity will be able to be provided by way of standing space (perhaps we'll see more trains with a 70x style layout?) and by just lengthening maybe 4-5 peak trains in each direction in the manner that Merseyrail does. And most users of those peak trains are on monthly or longer seasons, so they pay per return journey often similar to or less than an off peak walk-up, so they don't pay for it either.

That would allow redeployment of considerable quantities of rolling stock, which would allow ex-BR EMUs to be wiped out entirely (not that there's many left) and potentially also considerable DMU replacement if it meant Chiltern could release some 170s to cascade and replace 150s.

So it's not all bad.

Agreed. If electric vehicles are perceived as green and are cheaper to operate than petrol cars then people may very well use them more often.

However when driverless cars become a thing it will become common to simply order a car using an app and it will pick you up and take you to your destination. We may very well see car ownership decline and people will simply hire cars as and when they need to.

 

[futureA]

If no one is going back to cities there isn't going to be much demand for 'redevelopment'.

City centres will adapt and become more like suburbs. Shopping Areas will reduce in size but there will still be a need for some shops. Vacant Office buildings and shops will be redeveloped into residential buildings. But because city centre land prices will fall and more people will be working from home there will be an incentive to build larger apartments and family sized homes. This will also lead to more green space being created in city centres.

 

[JonathanH]

Are they? I would expect a discount from the Anytime fare for carnets but nowhere near to that level. 10% off seems to be the going rate so far.

Yes, if you believe what is written here https://bettertransport.org.uk/camp...t-time-workers-during-national-work-life-week and London provides a worked example after they reduced the price of a peak travelcard to 1/5 of the weekly price.

Indeed, their latest report https://bettertransport.org.uk/site...19_Recovery_Renewing_the_Transport_System.pdf says:

How consumers pay for transport

Reforms to fares, fare structures and ticketing should be prioritised. For some time though, many have felt they get poor value for money from public transport. Given the potential impacts of Covid-19 on the economy, the government should cancel the next planned fare increase on the railway due in January 2021, which will be confirmed in August with the announcement of the July inflation rate. Raising rail fares at this stage would be counter-productive to encouraging passengers back and to limiting the cost of people getting into work.

A new approach is needed to fare setting on public transport, which should address future fare rises (or reductions) and how these are calculated. Fares structures should be reviewed. Currently, there are too many confusing options for the different types of tickets and fares, and passengers are not automatically offered the best-value option.

From a passenger’s perspective, having an integrated multi-operator and multi-modal ticketing approach would bring benefits, including simplifying the ticket purchasing process and improving affordability.

Digital ticketing and booking systems for passengers will need to be default for the sector with a move away from paper tickets.

There should be a rapid move to simplified fare structures and account-based ticketing. Multi-modal tickets and zonal fares should be expedited for the cities beyond London as part of more devolved and better integrated transport. Local transport authorities that are devolved responsibility for rail should consider introducing new fares structures with tickets valid across operators, so passengers are not penalised if they need to change trains and from trains to buses.

The government will need to step in to facilitate this and require operators to participate in account-based ticketing schemes and put in place the systems necessary. There will need to be investment in the back-end systems as well as an opening up of data across the transport sector and provision of APIs so that technology firms and operators can provide new retail and transport information products to consumers. Improved integration between modes should also be actively supported, including capital funding from government to support easier physical interchange, data availability for journey planning and the widespread adoption of multi-modal ticketing.

Inflexible season tickets have left those who do not need to commute every day being faced with buying either a full-time season ticket they will not use fully and cannot transfer, or expensive daily ‘anytime’ tickets that give no discount for frequent or regular travel. With greater potential for working patterns changing post-Covid and greater likelihood of working from home at least part of the week creating a larger cohort of part-time commuters, there should be a new range of capped, flexible season ticket products, which better address this need.

The government should review the model of concessionary fares and how these are funded. It should support specific demographics that would benefit from concessionary fares to improve access to education and employment, producing a return for the economy by enabling those least able to afford it to travel. It will be vital to keep fares on public transport low, and to increase the levels of patronage.

 

[xotGD]

It isn't just commuter traffic that will be impacted. We've all realised that you don't need to get up at stupid o'clock to go down to London for a 2 hour meeting, and Teams does the job just fine without you having to leave home. Consequently, much long distance business travel, in particular to London, will dry up.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It isn't just commuter traffic that will be impacted. We've all realised that you don't need to get up at stupid o'clock to go down to London for a 2 hour meeting, and Teams does the job just fine without you having to leave home. Consequently, much long distance business travel, in particular to London, will dry up.

Though I think there'll be some offsetting to that, I think we will see, for example, people living in Birmingham or even the North West to do 2 days a week in London rather than living on the expensive London commuter belt. There are for example some lovely quaint little villages in Lancashire where you'll find the same house a third of the price or less than the same house in a similar village in the Chilterns. This is potentially very, very attractive.

This could, as an aside, mean some levelling of house prices from north to south.

 

[irish_rail]

It isn't just commuter traffic that will be impacted. We've all realised that you don't need to get up at stupid o'clock to go down to London for a 2 hour meeting, and Teams does the job just fine without you having to leave home. Consequently, much long distance business travel, in particular to London, will dry up.

I think your right in that it is intercity travel that will be impacted the most. The descion to make the environment on intercity trains so poor may backfire shortly as I think it will help tip the balance in favour of the private car for many on longer distant trips going forward, esp when considering the better cleanliness and hygiene of not using public transport.

 

[dctraindriver]

I think u make a fair point on strikes. I think the T*ries will ban rail workers striking in order to get whatever changes through, and , unfortunately I think this will be seen as acceptable by the wider public who still see unions as bad and government as good.

I’m concerned. We are going to have to be a bit smart here as I think the govt could well implement changes that will change the T&Cs we currently have....

I guess once the economic impact in the next few months and beyond we will have more of an idea of what will happen. I’m hoping my pessimism is totally wrong.

 

[Class 170101]

It isn't just commuter traffic that will be impacted. We've all realised that you don't need to get up at stupid o'clock to go down to London for a 2 hour meeting, and Teams does the job just fine without you having to leave home. Consequently, much long distance business travel, in particular to London, will dry up.

It does depend how powerful the country's internet infrastructure is. Currently I would say it manages and is adequate but only just. I'm aware of drop outs and 're-boots' possibly due to the pressure of many of us working at home. Its not there just yet for this on a permanent basis.

 

[158756]

It does depend how powerful the country's internet infrastructure is. Currently I would say it manages and is adequate but only just. I'm aware of drop outs and 're-boots' possibly due to the pressure of many of us working at home. Its not there just yet for this on a permanent basis.

At least part of the problem there will be that businesses haven't invested in the technology for remote working, because it's never been essential before. If this experience forces them to prioritise that there will be much less need to do anything face to face in future.

 

[Non Multi]

I think you have it spot on. As much as I hate to say it the role of the railway will decline from now on since so many office workers have realised they prefer not commuting.

I agree that we will see a dramatic reduction in staffing and a reduction in frequencies.
I do not think that we will see a Beeching type closure program for the foreseeable future but we may very well see a reduction in infrastructure. Perhaps some double lines going down to single and some quadruple lines going down to double.

Before long some of our city centre termini will be deemed too large and the land will be sold off for redevelopment. Of course this will be difficult since many stations are listed buildings

As much as I would have loved to have seen HS2 built I would imagine it's businesses case has completely evaporated. The congestion argument has been solved through other means.

British Rail rationalised the rail network fairly comprehensively in the mid-to-late 20th century when passenger and freight traffic was declining.

Some excess car parking land might be sold off at the larger stations, smaller railway station buildings may be converted into private residences or for commercial use. Enhancement projects may be binned or halted until the demand returns. A few more rural stations may become request stops.

Modest reconfiguration of some commuter trains for the benefit of leisure travellers. Bustitution may get mentioned once again for the unprofitable routes.

 

[NorthOxonian]

There is also possibly the risk of closure of a small number of "token" routes. The Conwy Valley may well be safe because the Welsh Government are responsible for it, not Westminster, but I would suggest that the likes of the middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast or the Whitby branch could well be vulnerable, as could any route requiring considerable sums of money spending on it e.g. the way the S&C did a few years ago.

What might save both of those lines is politics. The Cumbrian Coast line would fall under Copeland or Barrow and Furness (both marginal seats), and the Whitby line is mostly in Scarborough and Whitby constituency (which Labour could win in a good year especially if local issues played a role).

My suspicion is that any branches which close will be in much safer seats - perhaps the Looe Valley?

 

[irish_rail]

Personally I doubt we will see any branch line closures as it would be political suicide whatever the constituency.
I think the areas that will take the hits are discretionary intercity travel and commuter stuff.
I think service cuts as opposed to line closures will be the order of the day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It does depend how powerful the country's internet infrastructure is. Currently I would say it manages and is adequate but only just. I'm aware of drop outs and 're-boots' possibly due to the pressure of many of us working at home. Its not there just yet for this on a permanent basis.

Working from home puts a very low load on the infrastructure compared with e.g. streaming video, so I'd contend that, provided you don't put the video on for your conference (and we rarely use it, you get used to not using it and screensharing is more important), it's plenty. More likely it's your employer's infrastructure that is a bit lacking, and if they aren't now making plans to get it up to scratch they are probably an exception.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think service cuts as opposed to line closures will be the order of the day.

And, I'll be honest, I think there are plenty of places where taking the 2 x 3-car units that operate a service every 10 minutes, coupling them up and operating every 20 instead as a 6-car formation will have a very, very positive effect - that is, the service will actually be punctual and reliable for the first time in years. Sad that it took a global pandemic to even consider stopping the "short trains far too often" thing, but that's a positive outcome if it is what happens.

What might save both of those lines is politics. The Cumbrian Coast line would fall under Copeland or Barrow and Furness (both marginal seats), and the Whitby line is mostly in Scarborough and Whitby constituency (which Labour could win in a good year especially if local issues played a role).

My suspicion is that any branches which close will be in much safer seats - perhaps the Looe Valley?

Cornish branches are an interesting one, I'd have thought those fairly safe because of the huge summer demand, and there's going to be a lot more British holidaying...

 

[DarloRich]

Surely no one knows what the "new travel patterns" will be like once we start to get back to "normal". I would expect business are planning for a number of different scenarios.

 

[PR1Berske]

And, I'll be honest, I think there are plenty of places where taking the 2 x 3-car units that operate a service every 10 minutes, coupling them up and operating every 20 instead as a 6-car formation will have a very, very positive effect - that is, the service will actually be punctual and reliable for the first time in years. Sad that it took a global pandemic to even consider stopping the "short trains far too often" thing, but that's a positive outcome if it is what happens.



Cornish branches are an interesting one, I'd have thought those fairly safe because of the huge summer demand, and there's going to be a lot more British holidaying...

British holidaying is subject to many spinning plates being in the air at the same time. How many people can board a train to, say, North Wales, if they're not from the same household, and how many venues in Llandudno will allow walk-ins at no advance notice? Travel patterns are at the whim of external forces, and unless/until restrictions are lifted that "huge summer demand" may never happen.

 

[Bow Fell]

I would say we may see something like:
- DOO (without OBS) on all local trains
- DCO (with OBS) on all InterCity type trains
(i.e. the complete abolition of the Guard grade)

- Mass ticket office closures, ticketing to be via TVMs and online/mobile only other than at very large major stations
- Reduction in platform staff, with driver self dispatch becoming the norm
- Rationalisation of excessive frequencies, e.g. the likes of 6tph across the Pennines down to a more sensible 4 but with longer trains
- Removal of peak extras, with an all day Takt being operated due to reduced commuter demand (i.e. all-week Saturday style timetables)
- A new fare system which will be overall revenue positive to reduce subsidy

If any of this triggers strikes we may see legislation to ban them; we are talking about Tories here.

There is also possibly the risk of closure of a small number of "token" routes. The Conwy Valley may well be safe because the Welsh Government are responsible for it, not Westminster, but I would suggest that the likes of the middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast or the Whitby branch could well be vulnerable, as could any route requiring considerable sums of money spending on it e.g. the way the S&C did a few years ago.

We might see HS2 canned or descoped, but as the funding model for that is mostly borrowing from future fares income probably not. Similar for EWR (the building of which is likely to save the Marston Vale which might otherwise be a closure candidate).

It’s sad but perhaps inevitable that the ones that have the kept the country and the railway moving over the past few months, is the most likely place where the axe will fall.

Don’t think though, however it hasn’t been noticed that during the pandemic, TOC’s are experiencing some of their best performance ever, the railway is still moving and operating, despite the fact that you have plenty of ‘Marketing’ ‘Customer Experience’ and HR jobs sat at home all day/furloughed, trust me that will be food for thought for a lot of TOC’s.

 

[irish_rail]

Personally I do think slightly fewer, but longer services would be beneficial long term due to the increase in punctuality it can offer. Also, look at operators like XC where most of there trains are now formed of 7 8 or 9 carriages, it's almost a joy to travel with them. Sure there are slightly fewer services to places like penzance or Aberdeen, but it is for the benefit of the majority.

 

[PTR 444]

Everyone seems to think that the railways will decline in the long term from now on as people ditch commuting for working from home, but I don’t think this will be the case.

For starters, we have the issue of climate change to contend with, and the last thing we want is everyone who commuted by train to switch to using private cars. People will still want to visit London for leisure and tourism, not to mention the workers who cannot work from home, therefore the capital’s streets and air quality would not cope with any mass modal shift to car.

If we are going to have a proper green recovery, we need to reverse the “avoid public transport” message and create incentives to get people out of their cars. For starters, we need to slash fares on the quietest journeys, with any revenue shortfall made up by introducing a national road charging scheme. This should be combined with a mass advertising campaign to entice people to visit the great British countryside and change the minds of those put off rail travel.

Introducing an all-day Saturday service isn’t a bad idea. I’d be in support of an a takt style timetable where there are no changes in frequency for peak hours, oh and longer trains too.