HS2 6 monthly report to Parliament

[Nicholas Lewis]

Dept of Transport has published it first 6 monthly report into the project covering progress as well as future phases

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/hs2-6-monthly-report-to-parliament

Already reporting cost pressures

HS2 Ltd is currently reporting cost pressures of £0.8bn. If not successfully remediated, these pressures will be drawn against the Company’s delegated contingency. These pressures are driven by:

enabling works to prepare the line of route for construction. These have been underway since 2017 and in some areas have encountered more significant challenges than anticipated, such as the need to safely remove more asbestos than expected, resulting in increased scope and duration. These additional costs are likely to be in the order of £0.4bn according to HS2 Ltd
Euston Station, where further development of the baseline scheme has identified a significant cost pressure, which HS2 Ltd is currently reporting as in the order of £0.4bn. Further work is ongoing to validate these initial estimates and this could identify further pressure. As this remains at the design stage, work is underway to consider opportunities, efficiencies and scope reductions in order to redress these pressures and we will report further on this in the next report

and earliest opening date starting to sound shaky despite its 9 years away

On Phase One, the Delivery into Service (DIS) range for initial services from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street remains 2029 to 2033. HS2 Ltd continues to predict that it will provide services within this range but notes some pressures on the earliest date from COVID impacts and delayed handovers from Enabling Works, which it is seeking to mitigate.

Still I guess they are learning from Crossrail debacle

 

[Mag_seven]

Already reporting cost pressures

Here we go again!

Putting my flippancy aside however, it is key that any cost pressures are identified and made public early and acted upon rather than just suddenly appear out of the blue later on.

 

[Bald Rick]

Here we go again!

Putting my flippancy aside however, it is key that any cost pressures are identified and made public early and acted upon rather than just suddenly appear out of the blue later on.

The key sentence being: “If not successfully remediated, these pressures will be drawn against the Company’s delegated contingency. ”

I.e. it’s within the budget.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Asbestos being a key issue, it will always need dealt with appropriately. It's not a cost HS2 can avoid, mitigate or control, nor should they.

The alternative is mesothelioma and one of the most horrible lingering deaths one can imagine.

 

[Purple Orange]

That’s a very useful document and it helps to get away from the more spurious cost estimates that are thrown about.

A £72bn-£98bn range seems like a significant scope to enable costs to come within budget. Taking phase 1 alone, it is predicted 2033-2036 at the latest for full opening to Euston and Birmingham 2029-2033, giving a 4 year range. On a straight line basis, if we include the full £9.6bn contingency for Ph1 over a 16 year period, it comes out at £0.6bn per annum from here onwards, of which £0.8bn has already been identified for contingency spend.

Obviously there is a long way to go, but keep that trend going and the project for phase 1 could overrun by £3.2bn if phase 1 goes to 2036 or £1bn if fully delivered by 2033. Thankfully time to affect change is available. Given HS2 have stated a £40.3bn forecast outturn, they must believe that their burn rate on the contingency budget can drop to £0.3bn per annum on average (which it could be depending on what period the £0.8bn relates to).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Award of preferred supplier for the rolling stock contract is now due in "summer next year".
I think that's a 6 month slip from the previous intention.

With the Avanti franchise/ERMA now posted to end in March 2022 it makes you wonder what impact they will have on forward planning for HS2 services, which was the whole point of getting Trenitalia involved in the WCP franchise.

 

[YorkshireBear]

BBC (shock horror) not reporting that this is within the contingency and instead reporting as if it is on top of the highest figure.

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

Top end 98Bn...? Where did that come from - wasn't the budget (@2020) meant to be 82-88Bn...?

 

[Purple Orange]

Top end 98Bn...? Where did that come from - wasn't the budget (@2020) meant to be 82-88Bn...?

It’s in the report. £72bn without contingency and £98bn with contingency. Those figures are at 2019 prices, therefore should be higher than the £88bn quoted from several years ago.

 

[mwmbwls]

Today on Parliament TV - an opportunity to see if they are thinking what we are thinking.

9.30 am - 12.00 pm Transport Committee - Oral evidence

High Speed Two: update

(at 9:30 am) Deborah Fazan, Commissioner, Independent Residents on HS2, Phil Gaskin, Chairman, Calvert Green Parish Council,Luci Ryan, Lead Policy Advocate for Infrastructure, The Woodland Trust

(at 10:30 am) Andrew Stephenson MP, Minister of State, Department for Transport,Clive Maxwell, Director General, High Speed Rail Group, Mark Thurston, Chief Executive, HS2 Ltd

Location: The Wilson Room, Portcullis House

 

[D365]

BBC (shock horror) not reporting that this is within the contingency and instead reporting as if it is on top of the highest figure.

I was just about to make this comment..! Not at all surprised that the media would misreport this.

 

[Purple Orange]

Any information of note come out?

 

[WatcherZero]

I think the only thing that came out and was picked up by media was them basically saying weve reached the stage where cancelling phase 1 would cost almost as much as completing it.

 

[mwmbwls]

Watcher - With all due respect I profoundly disagree. The session was split into two parts - the first session consisted of the MP's asking local residents in the "fly-over" zone between - "How is Phase One, which started in April 2020, going so far" whilst the second involved a discussion with the HS2 Minister and his DfT officials and what happens next. The second session is easier to summarise - the basic answer was "Wait until the outcome of the Integrated Rail Plan". The first session was an examination of how HS2 has impacted on the residents of the "flyover zone" of Buckinghamshire. The key complaint was HS2 is not paying attention to the granular critical impacts that that their contractors are having. Because the start of work has been delayed key assurances such as felling trees in ancient woodland their dormant season are not being delivered. This will result in significant long term ecological impacts.
ancient woodland Phase1 HS2 by Mwmbwls, on Flickr
The residents have no effective mechanism for escalating these concerns as HS2 appear to have devolved decisions to contractors. The imposition of sudden road closures and diversions to accommodate building works in an area where there are relatively few roads is having serious knock on effects. Diversions are often long and down narrow roads unsuited to surges in traffic. Mud on the roads and footpaths is critical concern Contractors are also deviating for pragmatic reasons where the plans don't meet the conditions on the ground. One witness, a local councillor reporting coming home to find blue paint lines on his lawn because the published plan was deemed unbuildable by the contractors when they got on site - so the contractors went for a pragmatic but not a legal fix. HS2 is seen as a remote body issuing "Just get on with it" instructions to contractors. In large part these problems stem from a not unreasonable desire to catch up. The mechanisms that were supposed to mediate between the residents and HS2 are not working because HS2 appears to have failed to grasp he detailed implications and is applying small scale project construction management paradigms to what is a mega project. All of this is storing up trouble for the future as politicians and residents of areas further north are watching and taking note. Getting the sharp end detail wrong at this stage will forewarn and forearm objectors further up the line. Gratuitous provision of evidence is not a good idea.

Has this happened before - when HS1 was diverted from Waterloo to St. Pancras? Is EWR watching so that it does not make the same mistakes?

 

[LordFlashheart]

ancient woodland Phase1 HS2 by Mwmbwls, on Flickr

Not sure that map is correct, some of those woods in South Bucks and Chilterns are where the tunnel goes underneath (Mantles, Sibleys, pipers) Is this from the early Woodland Trust stuff before the tunnel was introduced?
The Woodland Trust have proved themselves economical with facts, they've not explained why they list Rowborough Copse, in Halton, as under threat. Its over 1 mile from the route and the impact is having the village cricket pitch relocated to be next to it (replacing the intensively farmed field) Presumably some acorns are at risk from a stray cricket ball? They also never reveal that their lead campaigner has spent the summer living in Jones Hill Wood. The myth of 108 woodlands destroyed has been well and truly busted but keeps getting regurtitated
They also tacitly support the East West Arc road building scheme as it 'might' be benificial . An organisation that has lost its way unfortunatly.

 

[Bald Rick]

Has this happened before - when HS1 was diverted from Waterloo to St. Pancras?

There were loads of similar issues when HS1 was built through Kent, when Crossrail was built through Plimstead / Abbey Wood, when the Borders line was built, when the M40 was built, etc etc etc

In other news, there is loads of mud on the roads and footpaths near me, which makes cycling and walking difficult. I believe it’s called ‘winter’.

 

[mwmbwls]

Flasheart - Thank you for the clarifications - I picked up the diagram from the Internet and accept that it may not represent the current scenario. What, however, remains valid is that the compression of timetables will cause work to be done that will have a greater impact on existing woodlands. To infer that the Woodlands Trust is "economical with truth" is a snide euphemism. Your reference to individual members' behaviour may well be true but they were not giving evidence to the MPs - the Trust's representative made no extravagant claims, including the points you cite in supporting your case, in giving her evidence* - that unseasonable disruption to ancient woodlands has significant implications. This position is already accepted as the basis for settled Government Policy Ancient woodland, ancient trees and veteran trees: protecting them from development - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). * This is available to view on House of Commons TV Parliamentlive.tv - Transport Committee

In other news, there is loads of mud on the roads and footpaths near me, which makes cycling and walking difficult. I believe it’s called ‘winter’.

A somewhat specious argument that does not compare apples with apples. Seasonality may well be a contributing factor but it is not a causal factor. Fortunately the HSE has a more considered opinion on Public Nuisance Matters:

"The contractor in charge of the site should make sure mud cannot get into public areas; and should arrange for the road/s to be cleaned if it does.

If you think mud or debris from a construction site is making the road dangerous, and the contractor does not seem to be taking action, tell the police as they may need to close the road while it is cleaned. The local authority or county council Highways Department may also be able to assist if the problem occurs on a road that they are responsible for. Their website will have details of how to contact them, and their phone number will be in the phone book

Work should be arranged so that road going vehicles do not drive onto mud on the site. This includes laying site roads and using site based plant to move materials to holding areas at the edge of a site road. If wheels and ledges are likely to pick up mud the site should anticipate this and install a wheel-wash. Either routinely, or as a back-up plan, the site should have arrangements in place to call in a road sweeping machine at short notice. Site management should be monitoring conditions outside the site regularly during periods of material movement".
Frequently asked questions – Construction general - Public nuisance (hse.gov.uk)

 

[Phillipimo]

In an attempt to take a balanced view. I listened to most of the 2nd session of the select committee. The government is determined that HS2 will continue, and that it would be very expensive and damanging to stop now with thousands of people employed directly and in the supply chain. However the select committee emphasised how important community engagement and experience is. The seriousness of this is recognised by HS2, but it appeared their actions do no always align with their words. There have also been issues with contractors not putting the community first in the way HS2 would like. From what I heard HS2 area managers will be in charge of 'enforcing' quickly when issues such as mud on roads exists or lorries not following designated routes.

I would urge people on both sides of the argument to have some sympathy. Yes it is important this project goes ahead, but also yes it is important that damage to the environment and local communities is kept to an absolute minimum.

 

[The Planner]

Isn't this just part of the "subbie" culture we have now? HS2 will say it is down to the contractor, contractor says "not in the contract, who is paying", arguments, legal, arbitration etc etc...

 

[Phillipimo]

Isn't this just part of the "subbie" culture we have now? HS2 will say it is down to the contractor, contractor says "not in the contract, who is paying", arguments, legal, arbitration etc etc...

Lorry routes, mud on roads and other factors important to communtiy experience ARE part of the contracts from HS2, this was mentioned to the select committee.

 

[The Planner]

Lorry routes, mud on roads and other factors important to communtiy experience ARE part of the contracts from HS2, this was mentioned to the select committee.

And that automatically means the contractor will roll over or not argue they are doing what they are meant to?

 

[mwmbwls]

And that automatically means the contractor will roll over or not argue they are doing what they are meant to?

In the good old days main contractors and sub-contractors often went head to head but that happens less often these days. Template clauses supporting shared principles with regard health and safety and considerate constructor practices are now common. HS2 represents such a significant amount of potential future income that subbies will want to build on track record whilst HS2 will want to work with known quantities. We have moved beyond knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing.

 

[Bald Rick]

A somewhat specious argument that does not compare apples with apples.

Ok I was being a little spiky, sorry (I’ve been like that this week, work does that to a fellow), but my point stands. Mud on the road is mud on the road, regardless of where it comes from. As it happens I’ve spent a fair bit of time on the back lanes of Buckinghamshire over the last 30 years, and many of them are covered in mud at this time of year. The road outside my house is (I’m not in Bucks, but not far)

One suspects that the anti-HS2 fanaticals will find any reason for being upset. Yes the roads might be muddy, and yes those near HS2 worksites might be caused by HS2, but go round the corner and they’ll be muddy there as well caused by Farmer Giles. In summer it will be ‘the dust is ruining the washing in my line’, and then next day they’ll have a bonfire.

 

[gerryuk]

When will we know if the Eastern Arm through Sheffield to Leeds gets the go ahead, or goes on hold or completely scrapped?

 

[Purple Orange]

When will we know if the Eastern Arm through Sheffield to Leeds gets the go ahead, or goes on hold or completely scrapped?

I’d hope to know sooner rather than later, but I suspect it will go the same way as MML electrification. Paused, delayed, partially built, but never really taken off the table.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think the only thing that came out and was picked up by media was them basically saying weve reached the stage where cancelling phase 1 would cost almost as much as completing it.

They would say that otherwise they might not have a project!

However, if the govt have allowed them to let contracts without suitable termination clauses that would be a failure to learn anything from Crossrail and pretty negligent. Contracts should stay in the bottom drawer but if needed they at least need to provide appropriate remedies, however costly, as its not beyond the obvious that publically funded mega projects may need a way out.

 

[takno]

They would say that otherwise they might not have a project!

However, if the govt have allowed them to let contracts without suitable termination clauses that would be a failure to learn anything from Crossrail and pretty negligent. Contracts should stay in the bottom drawer but if needed they at least need to provide appropriate remedies, however costly, as its not beyond the obvious that publically funded mega projects may need a way out.

They've bought all the land and houses, and the drilling machines, they've knocked down all the valuable buildings in London and Birmingham done all the design work and legals, and paid out a bunch of compensation. A lot of the money is literally spent.

The actual build and fit-out contractors have hired the staff and got them on site. Some of them are already in the diggers. How much do you think it's irresponsible to have spent at this point? What would be fair compensation for cancellation?

 

[Ianno87]

They would say that if it is factually true!

Fixed that for you.

 

[MotCO]

If the costs of cancellation was also built into contract values, the costs would escalate, and value for money would be debatable.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

They've bought all the land and houses, and the drilling machines, they've knocked down all the valuable buildings in London and Birmingham done all the design work and legals, and paid out a bunch of compensation. A lot of the money is literally spent.

The actual build and fit-out contractors have hired the staff and got them on site. Some of them are already in the diggers. How much do you think it's irresponsible to have spent at this point? What would be fair compensation for cancellation?

The 1975 Channel Tunnel project was cancelled when the first two TBMs were installed and ready to go (a trial bore had started).
However, unlike HS2, the sunk cost up to that point would have been relatively small with an undersea route and little land purchase or property demolition needed.
Wiki reports the cancellation cost as £17 million, which was chickenfeed!

The (Labour) government decided it couldn't afford to build Concorde, a new London Airport and the Channel Tunnel at the same time*.
CT costs were rising out of control as well, which was the last straw.
I don't get the feeling we are in the same position with HS2 - there's too much cross-party political capital invested in it.

*Concorde came and went, and we are still waiting for the 3rd London Airport.
Concorde couldn't be cancelled because we had signed up not to, in order to prevent the French doing it to us