HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

[The Planner]

Going to crewe is a bit silly if you really believe in improving East-West rail links though, its a huge dogleg that achieves very little for the cost (it is cheap only in comparison to the rest of HS2).

From where we are now I would argue the best would be east of Stoke to Newton-le-Willows via Manchester Airport.
Phase 1 would be to the Derby Stoke line east of Blythe Bridge.

25km of new route and 15km of double track rail electrification (30stkm) and you remove the Colwich bottleneck and indeed possibly render the Colwich-Stone line questionably necessary.

Destroys the connectivity Crewe provides.

 

[stephen rp]

The railway (vague term as I’m not sure who*) needs to come up with a review showing what they need to do to deal with HS2 trains getting kicked off at Handsacre, and comparing the expense and disruption to that of just building HS2 to Crewe. Then do some really strict value engineering on 2a (maybe cheat and stick some bits under other names - Crewe regeneration for example), as much as possible within the existing parliamentary approval. Show that lessons have been learned from the current construction programme.
Then rebadge it and gift to politicians as a “I’ve made them do it cheaper” political win.

*Not sure who as I imagine the Treasury/DfT are going Taliban on making sure no money is being spent on such things.

PS How do you pronounce Handsacre - is it just hands - acre?

You mean come up with a new review to replicate the Higgins review ten years ago that gave us HS2a?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7eb2bfe5274a2e8ab47a0e/HS2_Plus_-_A_report_by_David_Higgins.pdf

 

[GJMarshy]

Badge 2a as a new “Northern” project, sneak in passive provision for a new line to Manchester and it’s far more likely to get off the ground. To Crewe alone would make the world of difference, especially for fright and outright seating capacity.

 

[Howardh]

Will Manchester Airport be getting a new station despite the cancellation of HS2, in other words is Liverpool - MIA - Manchester - Leeds still a thing?

I'd like to see a map of future plans without HS2 if there are any?

 

[may032]

Will Manchester Airport be getting a new station despite the cancellation of HS2, in other words is Liverpool - MIA - Manchester - Leeds still a thing?

I'd like to see a map of future plans without HS2 if there are any?

I haven’t seen an updated map since the IPR in 2021, which includes HS2 lines / Manc Airport new station, and therefore is out of date.

AIUI, the only part of NPR currently going ahead is the bit that utilises the TPRU.

 

[The Ham]

I recon Labour could pull a rabbit out of the hat, if they're infrastructure review highlights a need for extra North/South capacity, but says that to build a new road would take 15 years before it was able to start work and another 10 to deliver it. Yet the construction of HS2 to Crewe would give us enough capacity improvements to ensure that the new road wasn't needed for another (say) 25 years, whilst High Speed lines to Manchester and Liverpool this could delay the road for 40 years. Not least due to the extra local and freight services which could be delivered (and actually detail what this could look like), as well as how it would benefit those still using roads (as whilst it might not make the queues shorter than they currently are the added delays over time would be far smaller).

Having determined that, it then goes on to say that having looked at these Western facing high speed lines that the extra to deliver an eastern facing element to create an East/West route could be delivered fairly quickly (still 15 years out, for the whole lot, but would be able to be delivered in stages so as to improve this vital link). Again detaining an example of how this could also improve other services as well as road travel.

To really make people take notice, suggest 3 routes for the new road which would be fairly controversial (for example maybe even suggesting that it would need to bisect some town or be the wrong side of a town to a larger settlement - for example east of Bedford so that those from Milton Keynes would have drive through it to get to this new road).

 

[JamesT]

I haven’t seen an updated map since the IPR in 2021, which includes HS2 lines / Manc Airport new station, and therefore is out of date.

AIUI, the only part of NPR currently going ahead is the bit that utilises the TPRU.

My understanding from the HS2 cancellation was that the 2b route had been safeguarded along with a chunk of the money to go towards NPR. However it was then up to Transport for the North to actually decide what NPR should be, ie whether they still want a high speed tunneled route into Manchester with an airport station.

 

[stephen rp]

Will Manchester Airport be getting a new station despite the cancellation of HS2, in other words is Liverpool - MIA - Manchester - Leeds still a thing?

I'd like to see a map of future plans without HS2 if there are any?

The government said the Liverpool-Manchester bit could still be delivered, but it's hard to see how. Freight line from Ditton Junction to Warrington, cross the Ship Canal, burrow through an M6 embankment, tunnel under south Manchester, build 3 new stations (Bank Quay, Airport, new Piccadilly platforms) and it would be slower than Lime St to Victoria now.

 

[may032]

The government said the Liverpool-Manchester bit could still be delivered, but it's hard to see how. Freight line from Ditton Junction to Warrington, cross the Ship Canal, burrow through an M6 embankment, tunnel under south Manchester, build 3 new stations (Bank Quay, Airport, new Piccadilly platforms) and it would be slower than Lime St to Victoria now.

Would it not be more cost-effective to use the NPR funds to tunnel from west of Castlefield to Piccadilly, connecting to existing lines, to remove the central-Manc bottleneck?

 

[Arkeeos]

My understanding from the HS2 cancellation was that the 2b route had been safeguarded along with a chunk of the money to go towards NPR. However it was then up to Transport for the North to actually decide what NPR should be, ie whether they still want a high speed tunneled route into Manchester with an airport station.

Since the route makes no sense without hs2 and is completely unjustifiable, if they choose to keep the current route that could put the government into an impossible position.

 

[stephen rp]

Would it not be more cost-effective to use the NPR funds to tunnel from west of Castlefield to Piccadilly, connecting to existing lines, to remove the central-Manc bottleneck?

I'd say no, without even asking how far west of Castlefield on which line, or where it would connect at Piccadilly. We're trying to save billions, not spend them.

Since the route makes no sense without hs2 and is completely unjustifiable, if they choose to keep the current route that could put the government into an impossible position.

I've no idea what this means!

 

[Arkeeos]

I've no idea what this means!

I probably should have been more specific.

The current NPR route that is in stasis until the regional mayors decide what to do with it is completely unjustifiable and will have a very poor business case since it uses the HS2 alignment but with no HS2. If they choose to keep the safeguarding and commit to the NPR plan outlined in the IRP it will be a massive headache for government as the treasury will hate it, while if the government override the decision and choose to scrap it, it will go down terribly PR wise.

 

[Tezza1978]

I probably should have been more specific.

The current NPR route that is in stasis until the regional mayors decide what to do with it is completely unjustifiable and will have a very poor business case since it uses the HS2 alignment but with no HS2. If they choose to keep the safeguarding and commit to the NPR plan outlined in the IRP it will be a massive headache for government as the treasury will hate it, while if the government override the decision and choose to scrap it, it will go down terribly PR wise.

Politically there is no chance the Tories would get away with scrapping NPR. Not after the Network North debacle - and there is also no chance that Starmer would give them any political cover, he has fully committed to East West rail upgrades. He isn't going to to betray Northern MPs and Mayors.

All the more reason why I think 2a will just be rebadged and completed....as if NPR is built and HS2 phase 1 completed in full.........why would you not do the cheap bit joining them together when a lot of other upgrade work e.g. at Crewe has to be done regardless of HS2?

 

[snowball]

My understanding from the HS2 cancellation was that the 2b route had been safeguarded along with a chunk of the money to go towards NPR. However it was then up to Transport for the North to actually decide what NPR should be, ie whether they still want a high speed tunneled route into Manchester with an airport station.

Only the part of the 2b route that is shared with NPR. There is no intention to keep safeguarding the Crewe-Rostherne section.

 

[stephen rp]

Only the part of the 2b route that is shared with NPR. There is no intention to keep safeguarding the Crewe-Rostherne section.

Future quiz question. What links Rostherne and Moscow?

Where a scorched earth policy ended.

 

[HSTEd]

Destroys the connectivity Crewe provides.

How much connectivity does Crewe actually provide though?

The bulk of Manchester trains will still have to leave at Handsacre to get to Stoke et al, as will any cross country or short workings to manchester. So will any trains that want to serve Stafford.

That means Colwich remains an active constraint on the railway for the forseable future as the reduction in trains using it will be comparatively small and all the crossing moves will still be required.

Going to Stoke eliminates the flat junction at Colwich as a factor in the timetable, going to Crewe does not. As well as going to Crewe costing an awful lot more money.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Would it not be more cost-effective to use the NPR funds to tunnel from west of Castlefield to Piccadilly, connecting to existing lines, to remove the central-Manc bottleneck?

Or more usefully, tunnel from Piccadilly to Salford and stick in some grade separation where the various lines diverge to different destinations West of Salford, plus add some additional 4-tracking/line-speed improvements to the Chat Moss line. It would be just as expensive, but what you'd get for the money would be far more significant since the tunnel wouldn't only allow much faster Liverpool-Piccadilly journeys but would completely transform commuter rail services around and through Manchester, completely solving the bottleneck around Piccadilly. And absolutely no reliance on HS2 necessary.

 

[Krokodil]

Only the part of the 2b route that is shared with NPR. There is no intention to keep safeguarding the Crewe-Rostherne section.

The BCR for that section would be very good though if it was the only missing link.

 

[stephen rp]

Politically there is no chance the Tories would get away with scrapping NPR. Not after the Network North debacle - and there is also no chance that Starmer would give them any political cover, he has fully committed to East West rail upgrades. He isn't going to to betray Northern MPs and Mayors.

All the more reason why I think 2a will just be rebadged and completed....as if NPR is built and HS2 phase 1 completed in full.........why would you not do the cheap bit joining them together when a lot of other upgrade work e.g. at Crewe has to be done regardless of HS2?

They have scrapped NPR, unless you actually believe they'll spend £12bn on a new route from Liverpool to Manchester with a very poor cost/benefit business case. In fact, you have to be very "creative" to understand how "We will also create a network where all the 9 biggest cities of the North are connected to each other by fast, electric trains several times an hour" or "Bradford will be given a new through station and new line linking to the NPR route near Huddersfield, with a Bradford-Manchester journey time of around 30 minutes once the new high-speed line west of Marsden is open". Has anyone costed a high-speed line from Manchester under Standedge to Marsden, let alone a new line on to Bradford?

 

[HSTEd]

Politically there is no chance the Tories would get away with scrapping NPR. Not after the Network North debacle - and there is also no chance that Starmer would give them any political cover, he has fully committed to East West rail upgrades. He isn't going to to betray Northern MPs and Mayors.

All the more reason why I think 2a will just be rebadged and completed....as if NPR is built and HS2 phase 1 completed in full.........why would you not do the cheap bit joining them together when a lot of other upgrade work e.g. at Crewe has to be done regardless of HS2?

Because if you have a high speed line from Manchester to Manchester Airport and one from Handsacre to London, there are many different solutions beyond building a high speed line from Handsacre to Crewe to Manchester Airport.
For example, you could do what I suggested and go east of Stoke instead of to Crewe, and connect to the Chat Moss line or similar for Liverpool and North of Manchester services.

Once HS2 Phase2A is gone it is not at all clear that reviving it is the optimal decision to make, even assuming NPR ever actually happens and isn't sacrificed to "repair the damage the Tories have done to the national finances" (or more cynically, prop up the triple lock for a few more years).

 

[stephen rp]

Because if you have a high speed line from Manchester to Manchester Airport and one from Handsacre to London, there are many different solutions beyond building a high speed line from Handsacre to Crewe to Manchester Airport.
For example, you could do what I suggested and go east of Stoke instead of to Crewe, and connect to the Chat Moss line or similar for Liverpool and North of Manchester services.

Once HS2 Phase2A is gone it is not at all clear that reviving it is the optimal decision to make, even assuming NPR ever actually happens and isn't sacrificed to "repair the damage the Tories have done to the national finances" (or more cynically, prop up the triple lock for a few more years).

Er... Liverpool? North Wales? Scotland?

 

[Envy123]

I am wondering if Stafford will get better journey times or worse ones after HS2 Phase 1, given that it seems that HS2 trains would go via Birmingham?

 

[sprinterguy]

I am wondering if Stafford will get better journey times or worse ones after HS2 Phase 1, given that it seems that HS2 trains would go via Birmingham?

London - Stafford journey times are expected to be 54 minutes via HS2 and stated to be 21 minutes faster than existing timings, though most present day timings seem to be slower than the 75 minutes that suggests.

HS2 trains between London and Stafford will run via the out-of-town Birmingham Interchange, but not via central Birmingham.

 

[The Planner]

How much connectivity does Crewe actually provide though?

The bulk of Manchester trains will still have to leave at Handsacre to get to Stoke et al, as will any cross country or short workings to manchester. So will any trains that want to serve Stafford.

That means Colwich remains an active constraint on the railway for the forseable future as the reduction in trains using it will be comparatively small and all the crossing moves will still be required.

Going to Stoke eliminates the flat junction at Colwich as a factor in the timetable, going to Crewe does not. As well as going to Crewe costing an awful lot more money.

No Manchester HS2 trains went via Stoke, if the western side was built as planned, Handsacre would have had 1tph residual to Macclesfield which went Stafford Stoke Macc.

 

[stephen rp]

Required reading (preferably before posting!):

HS2 cutback update - Rail Engineer

The only parts of HS2 now certain to be built are from Old Oak Common to Birmingham and Handsacre Junction on the West Coast Main Line (WCML). When announcing his decision to cancel HS2 phase 2 and replace it with Network North, Prime Minister Sunak gave an assurance that HS2 would terminate at...

www.railengineer.co.uk

 

[Envy123]

London - Stafford journey times are expected to be 54 minutes via HS2 and stated to be 21 minutes faster than existing timings, though most present day timings seem to be slower than the 75 minutes that suggests.

HS2 trains between London and Stafford will run via the out-of-town Birmingham Interchange, but not via central Birmingham.

Thank you. I was worried, as the current Stafford to London via Birmingham services are awfully slow.

 

[Meerkat]

That has been happening ever since Rishi made his decision to bin it. Yes, that is how its pronounced.

Who is paying? In light of the bridge burning attitude to land sales any government funded spending on such stuff would be strictly verboten?

You mean come up with a new review to replicate the Higgins review ten years ago that gave us HS2a?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7eb2bfe5274a2e8ab47a0e/HS2_Plus_-_A_report_by_David_Higgins.pdf

Ten years ago, pre Covid, pre changes in travel patterns, pre experience of building the bits done so far

How much connectivity does Crewe actually provide though?

Well for a start you can send a 400m HS2 train to Crewe and split it to give more direct services to Chester (if electrified), Liverpool, Preston etc

 

[Speed43125]

pre experience of building the bits done so far

But also Pre-GWML upgrade which (again)showed just how disruptive and expensive it is to do upgrade works in this country. I'm not sure either way has really shone in the intervening years.

 

[HSTEd]

Well for a start you can send a 400m HS2 train to Crewe and split it to give more direct services to Chester (if electrified), Liverpool, Preston etc

You can split in any number of places, so I'm not sure that's any particular argument for building many many kilometres of extra track to Crewe.

We could put a 400m platform in somewhere convenient for a tiny fraction of the cost of HS2 Phase 2A.
Indeed, there is no particular reason that a train can't leave HS2 at Handsacre, run to Crewe and split there.

 

[AndrewE]

You can split in any number of places, so I'm not sure that's any particular argument for building many many kilometres of extra track to Crewe.

We could put a 400m platform in somewhere convenient for a tiny fraction of the cost of HS2 Phase 2A.
Indeed, there is no particular reason that a train can't leave HS2 at Handsacre, run to Crewe and split there.

apart from the fact that no more freight (or passenger) paths will suddenly materialise through N Staffs.