HS2 - phase2 route announcement?

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Padav

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Perhaps I have misunderstood recent information but I believe the announcement of the preferred route (will there be only one preferred route published initially to minimise potential property blight?) of HS2, phase 2 will be announced within a matter of weeks?

I know this issue has been discussed previously but this time we won't have to wait too long to discover the actual route. Intriguing snippets of information have already emerged, providing some insight into the likely route.

I'm strongly supportive of HS2 and I've taken a particular interest in this aspect of the contentious debate about High Speed Rail. I believe that I live in relatively close proximity to the pathway phase 2 will follow. For what it's worth, I've compiled my best guestimate of the route, based on what little information has been available for the last two years.

I've split the route on the attached image into four basic sections;
1. Phase 1 where it terminates (already known), in RED
2. Phase 2, above ground, Groundlevel, on Viaduct or Embankment, in YELLOW
3. Phase 2, partially obscured, in Cutting or Green Tunnel, in GREEN
4. Phase 2, subterranean, in Deep Bored Tunnel, in BLUE

The attached diagram is only approximate - I don't have access to detailed topograhical information.
 

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swt_passenger

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Perhaps I have misunderstood recent information but I believe the announcement of the preferred route (will there be only one preferred route published initially to minimise potential property blight?) of HS2, phase 2 will be announced within a matter of weeks?
Advice to ministers is to be provided by March 2012. I doubt it will be publicised at that stage.
 

IanG

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The DFT document High Speed Rail sets out the following timetable

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-governments-decisions/hs2-governments-decisions.pdfHigh Speed Rail: The Timetable

Spring 2012
Public consultation on blight proposals
Spring 2012
Consultation with statutory bodies on the safeguarding zone for phase 1
Spring 2012
Government receives HS2 Ltd advice on phase 2 route options
Spring 2012
Engagement programme along phase 1 route on Environmental Impact Assessment issues
Autumn 2012
New blight scheme and safeguarding zone in place
Autumn 2012
Engagement programme on phase 2 preferred route, to discuss local views and concerns
Spring 2013
Consultation on Environmental Statement for phase 1
End of 2013
Introduction of a hybrid bill to provide necessary powers to construct and operate phase 1 of the railway.
Early 2014
Consultation on preferred route for phase 2
Late 2014
Government’s announcement of the chosen route for phase 2
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Padav

Interested in your speculated route - any chance you could upload a higher definition scan?
 

Padav

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@IanG / @swt_passenger

Thanks for your response - there seems to be some confusing information circulating about this issue.

Spring 2012 Government receives HS2 Ltd advice on phase 2 (Leeds, Manchester and Heathrow) route options
Autumn 2012 Engagement programme along phase 2 (Leeds, Manchester and Heathrow) preferred route, to take on board local views

How can there be an "Engagement Programme" during the Autumn of 2012 without that information becoming public? Engagement with whom - imagine the scenario where householders are approached later this year by HS2 Ltd and asked for their views about phase 2 passing either very close by or directly through their property - WWIII would break out with stories immediately appearing in the press. It would be impossible to suppress these details for the eighteen months period before the official "Consultation on preferred route for phase 2" takes place in "Early 2014"

There has already been a story in a Staffordshire newspaper, with the local MP Michael Fabricant claiming (indirectly) to have seen the plans for phase 2 and assuring readers that named villages (Armitage and Kings Bromley) will not be badly affected by phase 2 - phase 1 ends and phase 2 begins in his constituency

Consultation on phase 1 took place during the Summer of 2011 but precise details of the preferred route were in the public domain in March 2010.
 

swt_passenger

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Consultation on phase 1 took place during the Summer of 2011 but precise details of the preferred route were in the public domain in March 2010.
The March 2010 announcement of a preferred route must have been published well after earlier advice to Ministers though, so there might also have been previous stages that were kept from the public. Looking at the DfT archive site, many of the reports that were published in March 2010 were actually dated in late 2009 - presumably when they went to the DfT.

The decision to set up the HS2 company was taken in Jan 2009 - so it took 15 months to decide upon the basis of the London - Birmingham route, the process was described here:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.....uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedtwo/highspeedtwo.pdf

That doesn't mean there weren't other routes discussed during 'local engagement' (whatever that is/was) - but they always wanted the alternative routes kept from the public to prevent widespread property blight around routes that were subsequently discarded. This had been an issue in Kent with the CTRL1 - they had allowed too much info into the public domain in hindsight.
 
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HSTEd

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I'm still annoyed that the HS1 route is the one that was chosen even though it makes little geopolitical sense in the UK..... oh well, I'm sure we can expect multiple stations in beat fields in the Phase 2 project.
 

Stats

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The March 2010 announcement of a preferred route must have been published well after earlier advice to Ministers though, so there might also have been previous stages that were kept from the public. Looking at the DfT archive site, many of the reports that were published in March 2010 were actually dated in late 2009 - presumably when they went to the DfT.

The decision to set up the HS2 company was taken in Jan 2009 - so it took 15 months to decide upon the basis of the London - Birmingham route, the process was described here:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.....uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedtwo/highspeedtwo.pdf

That doesn't mean there weren't other routes discussed during 'local engagement' (whatever that is/was) - but they always wanted the alternative routes kept from the public to prevent widespread property blight around routes that were subsequently discarded. This had been an issue in Kent with the CTRL1 - they had allowed too much info into the public domain in hindsight.
HS2 Ltd delivered their 3 route options to ministers on 31 December 2009 - "Route 3" (Minister's chosen preferred route), "Route 2.5" and "route 4". All 3 routes as well as options considered and discarded at the various stages in the development of the routes were including in Arup's report published by the Government in March 2010.
 

swt_passenger

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HS2 Ltd delivered their 3 route options to ministers on 31 December 2009 - "Route 3" (Minister's chosen preferred route), "Route 2.5" and "route 4". All 3 routes as well as options considered and discarded at the various stages in the development of the routes were including in Arup's report published by the Government in March 2010.
Thanks - as you can imagine I haven't waded through every report all over again, given how well they are hidden away in the archives. That procedure you have summarised does suggest that if they do the same sort of thing again there won't actually be a public announcement in the next few weeks.
 
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Rational Plan

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Once reports start to circulate in Department well start to get leaks to the press. I doubt that the date between ministers receiving info and official publication will be that long.
 

Padav

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@Rational Plan

Exactly my thoughts.

HS2 is now, due to the unceasing efforts of a tiny but well connected, well funded and very vocal minority in the Chilterns, something of a political hot potato.

The STOPHS2, HS2AA and AGHAST campaign groups are just itching to discover details of the preferred phase 2 route in order to foment more opposition to the overall project - their campaign has reached a plateau with hopes focused primarily on Judicial Reviews (there are two underway, based on different legal criteria; one environmental, the other procedural). What they wouldn't give for a fresh wave of campaigners joining their ranks to exert more pressure, via MPs, on the decision making process. That's why I'm convinced any attempt to keep phase 2 routes out of the public domain is doomed to failure.

Given that the date for the enabling Hybrid Bill beginning its passage through Parliament is 25th October 2013, there seems little point in delaying announcement of phase 2 because, whilst it might provide ammunition for groups viscerally hostile to the project (for very obvious reasons close to their backyards!), it will also make the entire project that much more tangible to a potentially huge audience of beneficiaries, residing in East Midlands, NW.England and York-Humber Regions?
 
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HSTEd

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Will it ever happen and when?
Probably not, although I do note that the Scottish government would likely only have to pay for an extension from Newcastle to Edinburgh/Glasgow rathr than the whole thing.

Although building such a line might be a price to keep the UK together so it might happen on that basis (attempt to weaken scottish nationalist sentiment by bringing Scotland far closer to London in terms of travel time)
 

AlanFry1

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Probably not, although I do note that the Scottish government would likely only have to pay for an extension from Newcastle to Edinburgh/Glasgow rathr than the whole thing.

Although building such a line might be a price to keep the UK together so it might happen on that basis (attempt to weaken scottish nationalist sentiment by bringing Scotland far closer to London in terms of travel time)
Well I would like Westminster to at least plan a Phase 3 (to Scotland) and then talk with the Scottish Government about funding
 

swt_passenger

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The NE part of the Y network will probably stop around York anyway, but why would the Scottish government be involved as far as Newcastle - the border is about 60 miles away...

In any case, I think a HS line to Scotland would be an extension of the west side of the 'Y'. They certainly won't build a new line on both sides, and the west is the most likely...
 

AlanFry1

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The NE part of the Y network will probably stop around York anyway, but why would the Scottish government be involved as far as Newcastle - the border is about 60 miles away...

In any case, I think a HS line to Scotland would be an extension of the west side of the 'Y'. They certainly won't build a new line on both sides, and the west is the most likely...
I think they would want both branches of the HS2 to be extended so that both Edinburgh and Glasgow are reached by HSR. I also think that North East would also want HSR
 

HSTEd

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The NE part of the Y network will probably stop around York anyway, but why would the Scottish government be involved as far as Newcastle - the border is about 60 miles away...

In any case, I think a HS line to Scotland would be an extension of the west side of the 'Y'. They certainly won't build a new line on both sides, and the west is the most likely...
Yes, because lots and lots of people live on the west coast between Manchester and Glasgow?
I already crunched the numbers on this half a dozen times, you end up saving 10 minutes and you loose any ability to send captive HS trains to Newcastle (and you don't even save a significant amount of track as Leeds is further north already).
Additionally with a route through Newcastle you get a viable Glasgow/Edinburgh line for free.

And I don't think the British government would pay for a High Speed route to serve the people of Berwick, Newcastle ist he practical northern limit of any English HS system.
 

swt_passenger

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I think they would want both branches of the HS2 to be extended so that both Edinburgh and Glasgow are reached by HSR. I also think that North East would also want HSR
But in your fantasy world, money is no object.

There's no way they'll plan for two HS lines into Scotland - you can bet on that.
 

HSTEd

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But in your fantasy world, money is no object.

There's no way they'll plan for two HS lines into Scotland - you can bet on that.
Indeed, there is barely traffic for one, and the Leeds-York-Newcastle-Edinburgh-Glasgow one still delievers london-glasgow travel times of 3h15 and under 3hr for London-Edinburgh. And thats with intermediate stops and Leeds-York-Newcastle and Edinburgh.
 

AlanFry1

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Yes, because lots and lots of people live on the west coast between Manchester and Glasgow?
I already crunched the numbers on this half a dozen times, you end up saving 10 minutes and you loose any ability to send captive HS trains to Newcastle (and you don't even save a significant amount of track as Leeds is further north already).
Additionally with a route through Newcastle you get a viable Glasgow/Edinburgh line for free.

And I don't think the British government would pay for a High Speed route to serve the people of Berwick, Newcastle ist he practical northern limit of any English HS system.
It will be the Scottish Government that will pay for at least most of it and I think they want as much of in Scotland, sone other HSR plain have included branches to both cities
 

HSTEd

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It will be the Scottish Government that will pay for at least most of it and I think they want as much of in Scotland, sone other HSR plain have included branches to both cities
Yes, but the branches cost quite a bit of money which could be spent connecting other cities if the route was simply connected directly from Glasgow to Edinburgh to Newcastle.

The Scottish government could never afford to build a line from Leeds or Manchester to Scotland themselves, there population is far too small to absorb it.
 

tbtc

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If HS2 is built from London to Leeds and Manchester then it'd be cheaper to build a combined Scottish extension on the Manchester side of the "Y" and split the Glasgow/Edinburgh branches somewhere in South Lanarkshire.

Look at the map (Edinburgh being *west* of Carlisle etc)
 

AlanFry1

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Yes, but the branches cost quite a bit of money which could be spent connecting other cities if the route was simply connected directly from Glasgow to Edinburgh to Newcastle.

The Scottish government could never afford to build a line from Leeds or Manchester to Scotland themselves, there population is far too small to absorb it.
Both Westmister and Scottish Government will have to pay for it. If there is going to a line to scotland, extend both branches to Glasgow (from Mancester) and Edinbugh via Newscastle (from Leeds). Then it can replace long distance servcies on WCML and ECML
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
If HS2 is built from London to Leeds and Manchester then it'd be cheaper to build a combined Scottish extension on the Manchester side of the "Y" and split the Glasgow/Edinburgh branches somewhere in South Lanarkshire.

Look at the map (Edinburgh being *west* of Carlisle etc)
That could also work
 

HSTEd

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If HS2 is built from London to Leeds and Manchester then it'd be cheaper to build a combined Scottish extension on the Manchester side of the "Y" and split the Glasgow/Edinburgh branches somewhere in South Lanarkshire.

Look at the map (Edinburgh being *west* of Carlisle etc)
Yes, but you get no significant traffic to anywhere between Manchester and the Scottish stations.

Going via Newcastle gets you Newcastle and a viable Glasgow-Edinburgh line for a similar amount of track (because there are no branches).

Additionally the terrain for much of it is cosiderably easier?

High Speed Rail has to go where the people are, it can't simply cut across the Lake District
 

AlanFry1

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Yes, but you get no significant traffic to anywhere between Manchester and the Scottish stations.

Going via Newcastle gets you Newcastle and a viable Glasgow-Edinburgh line for a similar amount of track (because there are no branches).

Additionally the terrain for much of it is cosiderably easier?

High Speed Rail has to go where the people are, it can't simply cut across the Lake District
Maybe both Manchester and Leeds branches join together at Newcastle and then go to Edinburgh and Glasgow for Phase 3 of HS2
 

tbtc

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Yes, but you get no significant traffic to anywhere between Manchester and the Scottish stations.

Going via Newcastle gets you Newcastle and a viable Glasgow-Edinburgh line for a similar amount of track (because there are no branches).

Additionally the terrain for much of it is cosiderably easier?

High Speed Rail has to go where the people are, it can't simply cut across the Lake District
There's no population between Newcastle and Edinburgh either.

However, the point of this HS2 line would be to get from London/ Manchester to Glasgow/Edinburgh, not to stop every ten miles, so the lack of population in the Lake District isn't much of an issue.
 

ainsworth74

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There's no population between Newcastle and Edinburgh either.
I think point was more that when choosing which arm of the Y to extend if you extend the Manchester arm then there is pretty much nothing between there and Edinburgh/Glasgow whilst if you extend the Leeds arm you can hit Teesside and Newcastle on your way to Scotland.
 

HSTEd

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There's no population between Newcastle and Edinburgh either.

However, the point of this HS2 line would be to get from London/ Manchester to Glasgow/Edinburgh, not to stop every ten miles, so the lack of population in the Lake District isn't much of an issue.
Between Newcastle and Edinburgh is only 150km of no major population centres.
Between Manchester and Glasgow is 300km of no major population centres.

As for HS2-3, if you are trying to justify it for London-Scotland traffic you can't, one train per hour to each destination would easily saturate demand, the air market may look big on paper but it isnt really in terms of people per day in each direction.

Newcastle is neccesary to make the route even begin to look worthwhile, but you want to throw it all away for 10 minutes faster journey times to Glasgow.
(Remember, the trains will be able to sustain 320kph for almost all of the journey which means they will eat up distance faster than 5km per minute, 50km further or whatever means effectively nothing)
 

LE Greys

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The original proposals from Greengauge 21 split the line further north, with the Newcastle branch coming off at Manchester and the Scottish branch dividing again at Carstairs (which reminded me of Serpell a somewhat). However, they also evaluated an eastern route from York/Darlington southwards. Having a split further south does put more emphasis on the eastern side, which would make the option of extending up through the borders, probably via Coldstream, more likely. I'm assuming it would fan out after Edinburgh, with CC trains serving Aberdeen, Inverness and Glasgow. There are a lot of slow sections there, and a new line cutting out Morpeth, Berwick and Penmanshiel would save a lot of time just by doing that.

Still, there's always the problem of cutting the ECML in half and my part of the country ending up as a railway backwater. <(
 
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