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HS2 - phase2 route announcement?

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Nym

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Equally, it is currently looking most unlikely that HS2 will have a spur into Sheffield city centre.
The logical choice for Sheffo is a through station anyway, so it wouldn't need a spur. Such a station can follow terrain through Nunnery Square.

It does appear that the current service specification is assuming that all Leeds services to Euston will stop at Meadowhall, and most at East Midlands Interchange; but these are the exceptions that prove the rule. Elsewhere on the system; Brum, Manc, Newcastle, Liverpool, once on the HS2 track itself, there are minimal stops other than at OOC.

The non-Euston services do look more like conventional 'stoppers'; but they are not where HS2 will be making its money.

That assumes 4tph up the Eastern arm, 2tph captive to Leeds, and 2tph CC to Newcastle / Edinbrugh and somewhere else, splitting at York / Sheffeild.

1tph: Euston, BSP, EMP, Shef, LDS
1tph: Euston, Shef / EMP, LDS
1tph: Euston, BSP, EMP, Shef (Split)
- York, Northallerton, Darlington, Durham, Newcastle
- Doncaster (Either)
- Selby, Brough, Hull
- Scuntorpe
- Lincoln
1tph: Euston, Shef / EMP, York (Split)
- Newcastle, Edinbrugh
- (Either)
- Scarbrough
- Harrogate
- Sunderland
- Middlesbrough
 
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nerd

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Then there will be not be a High speed line to Scotland, purely Scotland-London services are not enough to justify a ten-twenty billion pound project.
And where will the paths come from for your separate Newcastle services that wont pick up business?

There is a reason no other high speed railway in the world runs significant non stop services end to end.... its a bad business model, it completely neglects the main strengths of trains.... being able to make multiple stops.

And about these Newcastle trains..... how will they manage to beat the existing trains on the ECML significantly? Without the eastern alignment they are ~80 minutes from Leeds.

And if you plan to build a separate spur to Newcastle regardless.... why bother with the western alignment as you gain essentially nothing apart from those ten minutes to Glasgow.

Additionally calculating the distances from Wigan is cheating, unless you want to loose half an hour crawling through north Manchester.

Maybe you are right that the Scots services in themselves won't generate enough business - as yet HS2 haven't done much detailed modelling of Phase 3. But now it looks like politics is taking over anyway.

However, what modelling has been done suggests big potential in taking business off the airlines on the Glasgow/Edinburgh - London routes. And the faster the trains go, the more business will be taken, up to around 130 mins when the air demand falls to zero. In this context each minuteabove 130 saved is gold dust.

The paths are already identified - 2 Liverpool, 2 Scots, 3 Brum, 4 Manc, 4 Leeds, 2 Newcastle. That makes 17 in all, with one potentially 'spare'.

I don't know whether HS2 have any idea of when they might take a full captive HS service up to Newcastle. My guess is that - unless required for the Scots link - it is very much a longer term prospect, and both Newcastle and Liverpool will remain as 'classic compatible' for severall decades. Apart from anything else, HS2 is going to spend a lot of money buying classic compatible trainsets for Phase 1. They are not likely to convert the entire system to captive standard during the life of these vehicles.

And yes, it may well be difficult to demonstrate much faster services via HS2 from Newcastle compared to the ECML - especially if the ECML itself is capable of having line-speeds increased with in-cab signalling. Which is one reason I suspect why intermediate stops of any sort along the HS line are not found on the Newcastle services.

Not sure I understand your point about Wigan; that (so far as we know) is where HS2 is going to rejoin the WCML, though it could possibly be a bit further north.

I think you may not have appreciated the basic design principle for HS2 alignments. Apart from Euston and Glasgow, the main HS2 line does not pass through or stop at any urban centres, nor does it use existing stations. Instead there are spur lines off into each city - Brum, Manc, Leeds. If it is extended North, there wil be additional spurs into new stations at Edinburgh (and perhaps Newcastle). The stations on the main HS lline itslef are 'intechanges' and are not in city centre locations.
 

WatcherZero

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You also need to examine other benefits outside the line itself. The business case for HS2 phase 1 is built in part on the benefits of freeing up the southern WCML to other services as opposed to the cost of upgrading of the WCML which would have to occur by 2025 if HS2 didnt occur. This also influenced the route making it more westerly rather than a central route straight up the middle between the ECML and WCML mainlines. The same arguments are now being put forward by freight companies for the northern WCML.
 

HSTEd

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Maybe you are right that the Scots services in themselves won't generate enough business - as yet HS2 haven't done much detailed modelling of Phase 3. But now it looks like politics is taking over anyway.

However, what modelling has been done suggests big potential in taking business off the airlines on the Glasgow/Edinburgh - London routes. And the faster the trains go, the more business will be taken, up to around 130 mins when the air demand falls to zero. In this context each minuteabove 130 saved is gold dust.

The paths are already identified - 2 Liverpool, 2 Scots, 3 Brum, 4 Manc, 4 Leeds, 2 Newcastle. That makes 17 in all, with one potentially 'spare'.

I don't know whether HS2 have any idea of when they might take a full captive HS service up to Newcastle. My guess is that - unless required for the Scots link - it is very much a longer term prospect, and both Newcastle and Liverpool will remain as 'classic compatible' for severall decades. Apart from anything else, HS2 is going to spend a lot of money buying classic compatible trainsets for Phase 1. They are not likely to convert the entire system to captive standard during the life of these vehicles.

And yes, it may well be difficult to demonstrate much faster services via HS2 from Newcastle compared to the ECML - especially if the ECML itself is capable of having line-speeds increased with in-cab signalling. Which is one reason I suspect why intermediate stops of any sort along the HS line are not found on the Newcastle services.

Not sure I understand your point about Wigan; that (so far as we know) is where HS2 is going to rejoin the WCML, though it could possibly be a bit further north.

I think you may not have appreciated the basic design principle for HS2 alignments. Apart from Euston and Glasgow, the main HS2 line does not pass through or stop at any urban centres, nor does it use existing stations. Instead there are spur lines off into each city - Brum, Manc, Leeds. If it is extended North, there wil be additional spurs into new stations at Edinburgh (and perhaps Newcastle). The stations on the main HS lline itslef are 'intechanges' and are not in city centre locations.

Yes, I calculated the additional business count based on obliterating the entire existing air market.... it comes out to roughly 1 400m train set additional to the existing services to Scotland each hour. It is nowhere near enough to justify this enormously expensive railway line.
Even if you remove all long distance services north of Manchester/Newcastle from the WCML/ECML you have trouble justifying three trains per hour. (And that includes the Birmingham-Manchester Pendos).

Additionally I understand the idiotic business model that HS2 Ltd have chosen to reasons best known to themselves, but I've been attacking it as a bad model since it was first released.
In a nation of our demographic layout and relatively small distances the model they have chosen makes little sense.

Additionally I have no idea why you are assigning two paths specifically to Liverpool as it can handle at best 200m CC sets so those trains should be combined with other CC destinations.
Assigning 4 trains to Manchester each hour additionally makes no sense, as the Liverpool trains already leave at-least 2 200m CC sets unaccounted for, unless you really think 4000+/seats an hour is really necessary.
Which I believe comes to quadruple the existing capacity, a similar calculation applies to Leeds, as 200m sets are assigned to Newcastle at best, so you have two CC sets apparently going spare up that side.

This ridiculous near zero actual stop system is just going to produce a network that runs lots of really short trains while pretending in the press that it is at "80% capacity".

As to the "130 minute" journey to anywhere being necessary, assuming one takes the Heathrow Express and boards a plane for an internal journey with the minimum check-in time recommended by the airport.... it'll be 105 minutes after you leave Paddington before your plane in even takes off.

Assuming it flies to Edinburgh that is 82 additional minutes in the air (according to BMI) before it is scheduled to land, putting us at 187 minutes.
If we then assume the destination will be somewhere near the middle of Edinburgh (where people live) that is another half hour in from the airport, putting us at a magical 217 minutes. 3hr37.

We aren't that far off doing that now.
Airport Security has done the job for us, a Shinkansen could stop a dozen times and still beat that time.
Our country is so small that airport security means that high speed rail doesn't need to be the TGV model taken to extremes to beat it.

But HS2 Ltd wants to build a network that looks impressive on paper and not one that will actually do what is required of it. That is provide more than simple point to point journeys and by piling seats high and selling them cheap, leveraging the surprisingly low per seat operating costs of modern double-decks.
 
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WatcherZero

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What your advocating however is the low cost airlines of rail networks, cheap tickets with long routes and cramped seating. That would to some extent be occuring on the classic networks, £25 Manchester-London tickets if you dont mind it taking an hour longer and the train being filled with short distance commuters. Would be the equivalent of todays touring the country on Sprinters to get cheap routing points.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Because the aim is not to simply get to Scotland as fast as possible as it was in the past, is has to be to provide service to the largest number of possible of people. "High Speed Rail has to go where the people are"

Central Lancashire (including Preston) has roughly 350,000 people.
Tyne and Wear alone has over a million.

And then we add the areas south of it into the picture.

Unless the plan is to leave Newcastle to rot at least half of the eastern line will have to be built anyway.
The same cannot be said for Preston.

Well it's hardly Newcastle v Preston is it.
More like Lancs/West Mids v Yorks/East Mids/Tyneside (with Glasgow and Edinburgh vying for top dog in Scotland).

I agree the construction cost might favour the east (less tunnelling).
 

LE Greys

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Yes, I calculated the additional business count based on obliterating the entire existing air market.... it comes out to roughly 1 400m train set additional to the existing services to Scotland each hour. It is nowhere near enough to justify this enormously expensive railway line.
Even if you remove all long distance services north of Manchester/Newcastle from the WCML/ECML you have trouble justifying three trains per hour. (And that includes the Birmingham-Manchester Pendos).

Additionally I understand the idiotic business model that HS2 Ltd have chosen to reasons best known to themselves, but I've been attacking it as a bad model since it was first released.
In a nation of our demographic layout and relatively small distances the model they have chosen makes little sense.

Additionally I have no idea why you are assigning two paths specifically to Liverpool as it can handle at best 200m CC sets so those trains should be combined with other CC destinations.
Assigning 4 trains to Manchester each hour additionally makes no sense, as the Liverpool trains already leave at-least 2 200m CC sets unaccounted for, unless you really think 4000+/seats an hour is really necessary.
Which I believe comes to quadruple the existing capacity, a similar calculation applies to Leeds, as 200m sets are assigned to Newcastle at best, so you have two CC sets apparently going spare up that side.

This ridiculous near zero actual stop system is just going to produce a network that runs lots of really short trains while pretending in the press that it is at "80% capacity".

As to the "130 minute" journey to anywhere being necessary, assuming one takes the Heathrow Express and boards a plane for an internal journey with the minimum check-in time recommended by the airport.... it'll be 105 minutes after you leave Paddington before your plane in even takes off.

Assuming it flies to Edinburgh that is 82 additional minutes in the air (according to BMI) before it is scheduled to land, putting us at 187 minutes.
If we then assume the destination will be somewhere near the middle of Edinburgh (where people live) that is another half hour in from the airport, putting us at a magical 217 minutes. 3hr37.

We aren't that far off doing that now.
Airport Security has done the job for us, a Shinkansen could stop a dozen times and still beat that time.
Our country is so small that airport security means that high speed rail doesn't need to be the TGV model taken to extremes to beat it.

But HS2 Ltd wants to build a network that looks impressive on paper and not one that will actually do what is required of it. That is provide more than simple point to point journeys and by piling seats high and selling them cheap, leveraging the surprisingly low per seat operating costs of modern double-decks.

Quite right, it strikes me that someone has thought things through really badly. Connecting everywhere in the country with just London makes vague sense, but connecting everywhere in the country with London and other places is a much better idea. OK, maybe we can have one daily non-stop express, such as the Flying Scotsman for publicity purposes, but that's show rather than anything. It did load fairly well, but so did the semi-fast to Leeds and Hull that ran in front.

As for putting stations at airports, what a waste of infrastructure! We have plenty of stations that could be accessed, some of which are even disused and available for redevelopment. Take the time to improve the links in and out, and I can guarantee that almost every city except London will have an unused or under-used alignment that can be modified to get trains in and out. It's more difficult and costs more, but it's worth it in the end because that's where people want to go.
 

nerd

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Yes, I calculated the additional business count based on obliterating the entire existing air market.... it comes out to roughly 1 400m train set additional to the existing services to Scotland each hour. It is nowhere near enough to justify this enormously expensive railway line.
Even if you remove all long distance services north of Manchester/Newcastle from the WCML/ECML you have trouble justifying three trains per hour. (And that includes the Birmingham-Manchester Pendos).

Additionally I understand the idiotic business model that HS2 Ltd have chosen to reasons best known to themselves, but I've been attacking it as a bad model since it was first released.
In a nation of our demographic layout and relatively small distances the model they have chosen makes little sense.

Additionally I have no idea why you are assigning two paths specifically to Liverpool as it can handle at best 200m CC sets so those trains should be combined with other CC destinations.
Assigning 4 trains to Manchester each hour additionally makes no sense, as the Liverpool trains already leave at-least 2 200m CC sets unaccounted for, unless you really think 4000+/seats an hour is really necessary.
Which I believe comes to quadruple the existing capacity, a similar calculation applies to Leeds, as 200m sets are assigned to Newcastle at best, so you have two CC sets apparently going spare up that side.

This ridiculous near zero actual stop system is just going to produce a network that runs lots of really short trains while pretending in the press that it is at "80% capacity".

As to the "130 minute" journey to anywhere being necessary, assuming one takes the Heathrow Express and boards a plane for an internal journey with the minimum check-in time recommended by the airport.... it'll be 105 minutes after you leave Paddington before your plane in even takes off.

Assuming it flies to Edinburgh that is 82 additional minutes in the air (according to BMI) before it is scheduled to land, putting us at 187 minutes.
If we then assume the destination will be somewhere near the middle of Edinburgh (where people live) that is another half hour in from the airport, putting us at a magical 217 minutes. 3hr37.

We aren't that far off doing that now.
Airport Security has done the job for us, a Shinkansen could stop a dozen times and still beat that time.
Our country is so small that airport security means that high speed rail doesn't need to be the TGV model taken to extremes to beat it.

But HS2 Ltd wants to build a network that looks impressive on paper and not one that will actually do what is required of it. That is provide more than simple point to point journeys and by piling seats high and selling them cheap, leveraging the surprisingly low per seat operating costs of modern double-decks.

I suppose its a case of 'you go your way, and I'll go mine'. When the Secretary of State pubishes the HS2 route we will know whose way is closer to the way that HS2 Ltd are thinking; though I suspect both of us can guess the answer to that already.

As of modelling long-term demand for rail trips from Scotland though, the big-ticket figures (from HS2's modelling) are here.

http://www.hs2.org.uk/assets/x/77832

Basically, HS2 modelling indicates that London - Glasgow daily passenger demand will increase from 900 per day (currently) to 5,900 per day in 2043. London-Manchester demand will increase from 6,000 currently to 18,100 in 2043 (see p 11).

Maybe they are entirely wrong - as you suggest - we can only wait and see. But if they are right, then the mix of hourly train path allocations that I set out (which comes straight from HS2's own publications), would not look to be over-ambitious.

And if there is this level of long-distance end-to-end demand, there is no need to pick up or let down passengers on the way.

The graph illustrating the modelled relationship of trip time to modal demand is on page 15.
 
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HSTEd

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It is quite feasible to build a 400m HSR double deck trainset that could have approaching 1200 seats. (TGV Duplex Grande Capacite will basically do this and its not a multiple unit - and is basically off the shelf)

The capacity of the core route operating for roughly 16 hours a day becomes ~280 trains per day ( at roughly 18tph) which is 336,000 seats in each direction. (Assuming all captive trains on the core section which is probably unobtainable, even if half of the trains are CC (which is hugely excessive) this is still over 200,000 - and still easily saturates those demand projections).


Now you see the difference between what they are proposing and the "pile em high, sell em cheap" multiple stop model I am proposing.

EDIT
I calculate those "West Midlands" projections as being roughly 52000 one way journeys each day.
If we increase that to roughly 80,000 to include the destinations apparently excluded from that analysis, that means roughly 40,000 trips in and trips out would occur.
The line would be able to handle that with an extended ~2-3hr rush hour in each direction, assuming they were all commuters and everyone gets a seat.
 
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nerd

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sorry folks

The justification for not publishing the HS2 report earlier, is claimed to be that ministers want to delay until they have firm response on options for additonal stations.

The HS2 report will specify recommend station locations for central Manc, central Leeds, South Yorkshire (probably Meadowhall); and East Midlands (probably East Midlands Parkway). These were required in the original terms of reference. In all of these, HS2 are likely to include details of less-favoured alternative sites also evaluated; with the possibility that ministers might wish to pick one of those instead.

But HS2 will also report on optional additonal station sites. Most obvious amongst these will be Manc outskirts (probably Davenport Green), which we already know that HS2 are likely to support. Others presumably discussed could include Sheffield central (via a Sheffield spur), and Stoke outskirts (most likely near Cresswell), and perhaps a South Lancs interchange station. Ministers want to have their justifications ready if they are going to be disappointing pressure from local politicos on their 'own' per station proposals.

The Government will publish its plans for the second phase of the
HS2 high-speed rail project in the autumn, it was announced today.

The proposals could include options for stations in Manchester, Leeds, South Yorkshire, the East Midlands and at Heathrow airport.

A report on phase two from HS2 Ltd, including such options, will be received by the Government by the end of this month, Transport Secretary Justine Greening said today.

The report from HS2 Ltd, the Whitehall-set up company considering the case for the line, will also include "advice on the case and potential locations for additional stations", she added.

But to minimise the risk of blight, Ms Greening said she would publish the advice at the same time as giving the Government's preferences.

The Government is already committed to going ahead with the first phase of the £32 billion HS2 which would see ultra-fast trains running through Tory heartlands from London to Birmingham on a new line which could be completed by 2026.

The second phase envisages a Y-shaped line continuing north of Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds with connections further north and into Scotland and which would be completed around 2032/33.

In a Parliamentary written statement today, Ms Greening said she intended to publish the HS2 Ltd report in the autumn "together with a Government response setting out initial preferred route and station options".

She went on: "An important part of this process will be to consider the views of delivery partners in the cities where HS2 stations may be located, including any underpinning evidence which they have identified.

"Understanding local desires and plans for development will be crucial in helping me reach initial preferences for station locations. I am particularly keen to ensure that the network best supports the economic potential of the cities and regions it serves, through well-integrated station locations that build on local and regional plans."

Ms Greening said: "Minimising the risk of blight is a serious consideration, and it is for this reason that I expect to publish HS2 Ltd's advice once I have reached a view on routes and station options.

"Publishing a detailed range of possible options without an indication of the Government's preferences would generate unnecessary and harmful blight across areas that ultimately might never be affected by the lines. I will be working with national environmental stakeholders to discuss key sustainability issues and how best to consult on lines of route going forward to help meet the needs of different stakeholders and the public."

Ms Greening said that only once a full public consultation had been launched and completed would any decisions be reached.

When the preferred route options are published, the Government would consult on and introduce an exceptional hardship scheme to assist property owners impacted by the proposals, Ms Greening said.

She added that she had asked her officials to explore options for bringing forward formal public consultation on phase two to 2013, and she would set out her proposed timetable later this year.
 
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sprinterguy

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2. While it is true that trains to Glasgow would be faster via Manchester than Leeds, the difference in track is only roughly 60km or so between the two routes.
This means that a train doing 320kph (as the train would simply cruise for longer at its top speed) would eat up the extra distance in eleven minutes. This is hardly significant on the end of a ~3hr journey.
Using existing rail mileages as a yardstick, the difference in distances between an eastern and a western HS2 route to Scotland is actually more like 70-75 miles.

Using the average speeds that the DfT are using to calculate journey times on the HS2 route (As you cannot assume that HS2 trains will simply be travelling at 200mph throughout their entire journey; there are likely to be lower speed restrictions for any potential tunnels or sinuous sections of route and the trains will probably make at least one intermediate stop), which is about 170mph, then the difference in journey time from London to Glasgow between the two routes is 25 minutes: 2 hours 20 minutes from Birmingham to Glasgow via an East Coast route (3 hours 2 minutes from Euston) and 1 hour 55 minutes from Birmingham to Glasgow via a West Coast route (2 hours 37 minutes from Euston).
 

HSTEd

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Using existing rail mileages as a yardstick, the difference in distances between an eastern and a western HS2 route to Scotland is actually more like 70-75 miles.

Using the average speeds that the DfT are using to calculate journey times on the HS2 route (As you cannot assume that HS2 trains will simply be travelling at 200mph throughout their entire journey; there are likely to be lower speed restrictions for any potential tunnels or sinuous sections of route and the trains will probably make at least one intermediate stop), which is about 170mph, then the difference in journey time from London to Glasgow between the two routes is 25 minutes: 2 hours 20 minutes from Birmingham to Glasgow via an East Coast route (3 hours 2 minutes from Euston) and 1 hour 55 minutes from Birmingham to Glasgow via a West Coast route (2 hours 37 minutes from Euston).

The ECML does not take a direct route between Newcastle and Edinburgh, indeed it could not at the time because of the need to keep gradients within reason in the steam era.

Yes, and I'm well aware of the fact that the trains will not be going at 200mph the entire journey, but the acceleration curves lead to the train cruising at 200mph for substantial portions of the journey, and the extra distance is effectively added in the middle of the journey when the train is going at 200mph.
This is the reason that longer journeys are undertaken at the higher average speeds if they have the same number of stops.

The average speeds HS2 have been using are also based on the rather anemic acceleration curves of loco hauled high speed formations like conventional TGVs when I think multiple units are far more appropriate in the modern era, especially with the apparent capability of modern Shinkansen sets to go from 0 to 170mph in three minutes.
(So yeah, I want a double deck 320kph multiple units with at least three quarters of the axles motored, failing that I will take the slower acceleration and go with TGV Duplex Grande Capacite).

As to the route not being built in its entirety for 320kph running, one would hope it will be considering the amount of money being expended on it, and the Chiltern tunnels are being sized for 320kph running according to the Phase 1 engineering survey.

EDIT: My proposed route is 540km from Birmingham delta to Glasgow.
This is roughly 2hrs at your stated 270kph.

EDIT #2: Using the 2010 Tokaido Shinkansen timetable a journey of 704km (Shin-Yokohama - Okayama) takes 2h55 with four intermediate stops.
I make London to Glasgow on my projected route is roughly 715km, but the Tokaido Shinkansen has a top speed of 270kph for N700 series trainsets, so we can probably end up ahead.
Four stops gets us a sub three hour travel time with intermediate stops at Birmingham Int, Leeds, Newcastle and Edinburgh. You can replace the Birmingham Int. stops with York stops on some trains (as the projected route goes via York simply to avoid the Dales)
 
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nerd

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sorry HSTEd, all the technical details are beside the point; three hours is simply too long for a Euston-Glasgow captive HS journey.

Two and a half hours is what HS2 have been stating as their eventual expected timings for this service. Half and hour extra makes a massive difference - in terms of demand projections - for a 2-3 hour trip. Ideally they would like to cut times even further.

Forget (in this country) the intermediate stops; and forget the idea of linking Newcastle into the Glasgow service. There will still be regional trains that will do that, and no reason not to travel on them.

But the High Speed lines will carry passengers almost entirely point-to-point. maximising speed and maximising capacity. If HS2 really can find six thousand potential customers per day for a direct Glasgow to Euston service, that will - at peak periods - fill the trainsets anyway.

Once these end-to-end trips are taken off the classic system, it will be possible to achive a big increase in regional rail coverage, with higher frequencies and many more stops. The trains will be a bit slower, but by being more frequent, dor-to-door journey times will still reduce.

Essentially intercity rail and regional rail have opposite drivers. Intercity is driven by capacity and speed; regional/cross-country/commuter by coverage and frequency. At present, these conflicting drivers are inhibiting the ability of rail systems to respond to increasing demand for peak-period regional and commuter rail. With big intercity flows onto HS2 (and HS3?) the regional and commuter services can get on with doing what they do best.
 

HSTEd

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sorry HSTEd, all the technical details are beside the point; three hours is simply too long for a Euston-Glasgow captive HS journey.

Two and a half hours is what HS2 have been stating as their eventual expected timings for this service. Half and hour extra makes a massive difference - in terms of demand projections - for a 2-3 hour trip. Ideally they would like to cut times even further.

Forget (in this country) the intermediate stops; and forget the idea of linking Newcastle into the Glasgow service. There will still be regional trains that will do that, and no reason not to travel on them.

But the High Speed lines will carry passengers almost entirely point-to-point. maximising speed and maximising capacity. If HS2 really can find six thousand potential customers per day for a direct Glasgow to Euston service, that will - at peak periods - fill the trainsets anyway.

Once these end-to-end trips are taken off the classic system, it will be possible to achive a big increase in regional rail coverage, with higher frequencies and many more stops. The trains will be a bit slower, but by being more frequent, dor-to-door journey times will still reduce.

Essentially intercity rail and regional rail have opposite drivers. Intercity is driven by capacity and speed; regional/cross-country/commuter by coverage and frequency. At present, these conflicting drivers are inhibiting the ability of rail systems to respond to increasing demand for peak-period regional and commuter rail. With big intercity flows onto HS2 (and HS3?) the regional and commuter services can get on with doing what they do best.

1. 2hr55 would be with 4 stops at 270kph top speed, you would very rapidly pick up extra ground thanks to the insanely high power to weight ratio of modern HSR trainsets, probably leaving you around the 2h40 mark more than anything. (The N700 does 0-170mph in three minutes and then 170mph-200mph in 2 minutes more)

2. 2hr30 compared to 2hr55 in reality would make little difference to demand, you have already obliterated air travel and are still too long for commuters, and as I said, 2h40 is probably a more reasonable assumption.

3. Running point to point services in the UK will not maximise capacity because not even the London-Birmingham flow can justify 3 or 4 1200 seat trains per hour, (they predict less than 15000 journeys in each direction a day) leading me to conclude that the projections assume the use of deliberately shortened trainsets to suppress capacity and thus justify higher ticket prices.

4. Not running the high speed route over the eastern alignment results in the project having little benefit for Newcastle, with no significant decrease in travel times and the north-east being left to rot.... again.
If having 2hr30 journey times is going to cause exploding demand on the Glasgow-London route, imagine what sub-2hr journey times would do for Newcastle.

5. In Summary, the HS2 Ltd people need to pick one story and run with it, either this is about massive transport capacity for the 21st century (at which point every train should be running in 400m formations and all trains that can be double decker should be and the services should have intermediate stops) or this is about a premium service for the privileged few (at which point they should stop making the capacity argument and admit that they don't care about the rest of the network).

The "regional trains will be improved" argument is also on extremely shakey ground because it assumes that the current service frequencies on the classic lines will be affordable without drastically increased subsidies (once you have taken away all the end to end traffic), let alone increasing frequencies.
 

Zoe

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The "regional trains will be improved" argument is also on extremely shakey ground because it assumes that the current service frequencies on the classic lines will be affordable without drastically increased subsidies (once you have taken away all the end to end traffic), let alone increasing frequencies.
The point here though is that as people move away from the private car and onto public transport there will be extra demand and so increased frequencies will be justified. HS2 will allow extra capacity for these frequency improvents.
 

HSTEd

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The point here though is that as people move away from the private car and onto public transport there will be extra demand and so increased frequencies will be justified. HS2 will allow extra capacity for these frequency improvents.

This won't occur overnight however, and we have little guarantee that this will actually occur, but then I'm pro HS2 so I wont go on about that, just get annoyed when people don't even bother to consider it.

EDIT:
As an example of the acceleration of Shinkansen trainsets:

An N700 service can go from Hiroshima to Fukuoka in 67 minutes with two intermediate stops, this works out at an average speed of 255kph with a stop every 95km.
ie. it nearly matches the average speed apparently in use by HS2 despite a line speed of 270-300kph and stops every 95km.

Over my full 715km projected route that is 2h48 with something like 6 intermediate stops.
 
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tbtc

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1. Sending Leeds passengers via Manchester would bypass the million+ people in the Nottingham and Sheffield areas unless you double back on yourself

You would get a direct fast link between Manchester and Leeds (which would be a significant improvement over the current offering) by doing this.

Also, I'm not sure that a station at East Midlands Parkway and a station at Meadowhall will serve the "million plus" people in Nottingham/ Sheffield *that* well.

For me, HS2 should either be one big line (the Tory proposal which is the "simplest" option, which means going London - Birmingham - Manchester - Leeds - Newcastle - Edinburgh - Glasgow) or it should be separate lines (rather than trying to tie everywhere up with one big snaking route).

It would also require you to build a transpennine connection whereas the current Y formation prevents having to build through terrain quite that formidable

Its only around forty miles, as the crow flies
 

nerd

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3. Running point to point services in the UK will not maximise capacity because not even the London-Birmingham flow can justify 3 or 4 1200 seat trains per hour, (they predict less than 15000 journeys in each direction a day) leading me to conclude that the projections assume the use of deliberately shortened trainsets to suppress capacity and thus justify higher ticket prices.

4. Not running the high speed route over the eastern alignment results in the project having little benefit for Newcastle, with no significant decrease in travel times and the north-east being left to rot.... again.
If having 2hr30 journey times is going to cause exploding demand on the Glasgow-London route, imagine what sub-2hr journey times would do for Newcastle.

5. In Summary, the HS2 Ltd people need to pick one story and run with it, either this is about massive transport capacity for the 21st century (at which point every train should be running in 400m formations and all trains that can be double decker should be and the services should have intermediate stops) or this is about a premium service for the privileged few (at which point they should stop making the capacity argument and admit that they don't care about the rest of the network).


The modelling is predicting 20,900 passengers per day in each direction between Euston/Heathrow and Brum/Brum Interchange in 2043; plus 18,100 per day from Manc. That represents and average (for Brum) of around 430 passengers per trainset. At peak periods, they will certainly be filling 1100 seat 'doubles'.

The benefit to Newcastle may not be as dramatic, but it is not insignficant. Newcastle will get 2 paths per hour, using extended classic-compatible trainsets, and with a projected journey time of 138 minutes (compared to around 178 minutes now). That is not 'being left to rot'. Certainly not compared to Bristol, Stoke or even Liverpool. You can't create a national rail policy entirely around the needs of Tyneside.

The key is capacity, and here you are entirely at variance with HS2; you are suggesting a Shinkansen style service with intermediate stops - which from Japanese experience imposes a limit of around 9 paths per hour. By elimiiting the intermedite stops, HS2 reckon to increase that to 18 paths an hour. Even if we allow that your 'nine' services per hour are run by doubles through the day - whereas on the HS2 business model doubles run only at peak; nevertheless I think it is clear that HS2 win the capacity argument.
 

HSTEd

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The modelling is predicting 20,900 passengers per day in each direction between Euston/Heathrow and Brum/Brum Interchange in 2043; plus 18,100 per day from Manc. That represents and average (for Brum) of around 430 passengers per trainset. At peak periods, they will certainly be filling 1100 seat 'doubles'.
But it doesn't say that.
The numbers of predicted daily trips between a selection of city centres and London with and without HS2 are shown in Table 4. These are the total number of (one way) rail trips which originate within a city council area

It very specifically says that that is the number of one way trips that begin in either the London or the city council area and not round trips.

The benefit to Newcastle may not be as dramatic, but it is not insignficant. Newcastle will get 2 paths per hour, using extended classic-compatible trainsets, and with a projected journey time of 138 minutes (compared to around 178 minutes now). That is not 'being left to rot'. Certainly not compared to Bristol, Stoke or even Liverpool. You can't create a national rail policy entirely around the needs of Tyneside.
It is highly unlikely that there will be a northern High Speed route out of Leeds to rejoin the ECML further north, either trains will have to run out of the city on the classic lines (likely stopping at the city station) or they connection will be in the vicinity of Doncaster.
Its hardly going to save 40 minutes like that. (80 minutes to Leeds and then the current 90 minutes)
You need to extend the High Speed line to the vicinity of York to manage savings like that, at which point eastern alignment looks even more attractive than the western one.

The key is capacity, and here you are entirely at variance with HS2; you are suggesting a Shinkansen style service with intermediate stops - which from Japanese experience imposes a limit of around 9 paths per hour. By elimiiting the intermedite stops, HS2 reckon to increase that to 18 paths an hour.

And yet HS2's own documentation details how it is confident that it can support the planned 18 trains per hour over junction pointwork at Birmingham Delta and with stopping services at Birmingham International
This indicates that with appropriate approach "slips" you can run 18tph with stopping serviecs if you want, despite the extremely conservative assumptions made by HS2 Ltd in drawing up that document (it assumes emergency stop distances from 360kph twice those demonstrated repeatedly in adverse conditions by JR East during the testing related to the construction of the new E5 Hayabusa sets. Tests which were undertaken I might add with only friction brakes, not the linear eddy current brakes we have at our disposal in Europe under TSI)

Even if we allow that your 'nine' services per hour are run by doubles through the day - whereas on the HS2 business model doubles run only at peak; nevertheless I think it is clear that HS2 win the capacity argument.

But HS2 relies on being able to switch trains at 18tph, which is all you need for stopping services with the appropriate facilities, you must remember that the Shinkansen system is not entirely equipped with top of the line N700 or series 800 trainsets, it has numerous slower, and slower accelerating services only rated for 150mph on it. (indeed only full length N700 sets are allowed to use 170mph speeds on the Tokaido Shinkansen).
This is the primary limitation on these line's capacity, not whether or not a train can accelerate or decelerate on the line fast enough as it can be demonstrated that it can.

EDIT:
Additionally the FASTECH-360 tests I referenced earlier also demonstrated that running fixed formation 400m trains improves the emergency stopping distance as conditions such as wet rail and the like decrease in importance as you move down the train (the water is forced from the railhead or simply boiled) this means that a 16 carriage train will have better braking performance in the adverse conditions defining the safety case.
An improved emergency stopping distance reduces the required headways, especially with possible dynamic block signalling.
 
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tbtc

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You need to extend the High Speed line to the vicinity of York to manage savings like that, at which point eastern alignment looks even more attractive than the western one

Why the obsession with serving York?

Its quite a big diversion out of the way (between Leeds and Newcastle) yet not *that* big a place.
 

HSTEd

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Why the obsession with serving York?

Its quite a big diversion out of the way (between Leeds and Newcastle) yet not *that* big a place.

I'm not obsessed with serving York.

Take a look at the terrain north of Leeds and then look at the terrain over by York.
Once the route goes over there anyway its not that expensive to serve York.
 

Nym

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Quite asside from that it's a very handy place to divide classic compatable sets since platforms are long enough (or can be extended easilly to be) to do so.

Personally I'd invisage CC sets (assuming my via Sheffeild HS2 plan) splitting at Sheffeild 1tph and York 1tph, with one half of the CC set kindly buggering off to Newcastle or beyond and the other to a secondary ECML destination. Now, assuming 18x23m or 20x20m formations for HS2 ~400m sets, and the desire to keep longer formations running to Newcastle, then a 2/3 + 1/3 formation could be put together to split at Sheffeild or York with the smaller portion running to secondary destinations and the larger to Newcastle and Edinbrugh.

Before anyone says that wouldn't work with shorter CC sets, if we have fully distributed traction EMUs, one can simply swap out carriages from a 200m set into another 200m set, say steal 3 cars from a 200m set to put in another and get a 260m and 140m set. And all of these sets would be locomotive haulable away from the wires (Part of my primary plans for the WC sections).

So at York and/or Sheffeild we'd have 2tph short(er) Classic Compatable sets capable of being loco hauled anywhere available to serve, ya know, them off wires and off route destinations.

Hull (From Sheffeild via Doncaster, or Leeds East Parkway via Selby), Lincoln (From Sheffeild via Retford), Harrogate or Scarbrough (From York), Bradford Interchange via Leeds (From Leeds East Parkway). etc etc, where 140m every 1 or 2 hours would be perfectly sufficent for their London services. Opersite hourly (nearly) services could run in a similar form to Birmingham.
 

LE Greys

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Why the obsession with serving York?

Its quite a big diversion out of the way (between Leeds and Newcastle) yet not *that* big a place.

In my case, because it allows easier access to the (bypassed) southern half of the ECML than Leeds does. There's even the hope that some trains can use the new section between Edinburgh and York, then come off the new line and continue to King's Cross via Doncaster and Peterborough.
 

Waverley125

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HS2 should not serve York, and nore should it serve an 'East Leeds Parkway' in the middle of nowhere. It should serve Leeds City Centre, i.e. the main hub of the Leeds City Region and West Yorkshire as a whole. By using the southeastern approach you can build an HS station at the current Crown Point retail park, tunnel under the Aire and rise in East Leeds, somewhere near Neville Hill. This would then allow the line to turn north at Cross Gates and head basically straight to Newcastle.

The very silly argument of the 'terrain' actually disappears, as you then cut past York to the west into the Vale of York north of the city, while avoiding the need to go through any terrain that might actually be difficult, about 20 miles to the west of any sane alignment of the line.

The only way you could have any difficulty in terrain would be by drawing a straight line from Leeds city centre to Newcastle, and even then it'd not be much.

The most sensible alignment would involve heading north from Toton (East Midlands) then to Sheffield Victoria, Leeds Crown Point, Durham Tees Valley airport (Tees Valley Parkway) & Newcastle Central.
 

Nym

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But that wouldn't actually serve LEEDS CITY station...

If I was doing my ideal plans for Leeds it would, at the end of Stage II (Manchester and Leeds) be formed of a Delta Junction between the M62 and Garforth with the line accessing Leeds City Station area and taking over the car park on a higher level so that additional domestic platforms can be added underneath, if you have been to Leeds you'll notice the height difference of Platforms 1 - 4 compared with the others and realise this isn't in-sensible. The HS station would run for 430m length for 6 platforms taking over the car park and running over the current lines on a small viaduct then following the line out to Stourton for the Delta Junction near Woodlesford, fed from the south between Wakefeild and Normanton, and flowing out to add to the "Leeds East Parkway" station complex and join the mainline west of Micklefeild Junction near Sherburn in Elmet for the link to the ECML and hopefully include a small cord to link into South Milford for Selby and Hull.

From the south it would come through Nunnery Square in Sheffeild, so there would be stations in Leeds City Centre, Leeds East Parkway, north of the Junction (where it will link to the current ECML via Sherburn) and Sheffeild Nunnery Square as a through station. Leeds East Parkway would then form an insanely large P&R station the same as Manchester West and South Parkways would.
 

LE Greys

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HS2 should not serve York, and nore should it serve an 'East Leeds Parkway' in the middle of nowhere. It should serve Leeds City Centre, i.e. the main hub of the Leeds City Region and West Yorkshire as a whole. By using the southeastern approach you can build an HS station at the current Crown Point retail park, tunnel under the Aire and rise in East Leeds, somewhere near Neville Hill. This would then allow the line to turn north at Cross Gates and head basically straight to Newcastle.

The very silly argument of the 'terrain' actually disappears, as you then cut past York to the west into the Vale of York north of the city, while avoiding the need to go through any terrain that might actually be difficult, about 20 miles to the west of any sane alignment of the line.

The only way you could have any difficulty in terrain would be by drawing a straight line from Leeds city centre to Newcastle, and even then it'd not be much.

The most sensible alignment would involve heading north from Toton (East Midlands) then to Sheffield Victoria, Leeds Crown Point, Durham Tees Valley airport (Tees Valley Parkway) & Newcastle Central.

Most of this makes sense. My reasons for preferring the York alignment are obvious, but I definitely agree that city centres are far more useful than stations off in the distance somewhere (that's why I support a connection to Darlington, but that's another matter). As a temporary solution, assuming that the line gets built from south to north, the Sheffield section could open with CC-stock serving Leeds and beyond. Then an extension to Leeds with a junction at Neville Hill to allow access to the ECML via Church Fenton. Then I'd reassess whether routing via York is needed or not. The junction could remain for access for permanent way trains and occasional diversions.
 

Waverley125

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the most expensive part of running my plan would be the necessary tunnel in Leeds City centre. Given the space on the SE approach, and the low land value of what is currently an industrial estate, you could get almost right up to the Aire in a cutting for a below street-level station. From Waterloo Street (Leeds Waterloo anyone?) You'd need to tunnel for about a mile, dropping under the river and turning reasonably sharply east, before rising in the extant freight yard at Neville Hill. The Leeds Eastern approach can then easily be widened to 6 lines through to Cross Gates, before allowing a flyover out from the central reservation to a line heading north.

Edit: Necessary tunnel length would be about 1-1.5 miles.
 
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HSTEd

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as Leeds City station will likely be rebuilt again prior to the arrival of HS2, I prefer the route into central Leeds using the alignment of the current Wakefield line with the Wakefield traffic redirected through Cottingley using a relatively short cutting/cut and cover tunnel.

Leeds City would be completely rebuilt with a nice new almost entirely transparent ETFE roof with a new concourse above the platforms in a sort of reverse St Pancras, additional platforms would be added over the current car park, the current bays would be extended to full platforms (is the facade at Leeds listed?).

Additionally if more platforms were required they could be built above the lower ones, level with the new concourse.

The viaduct on the east approach would either be double decked (with High speed trains on top) or widened to four tracks depending on what ended up being cheaper. Additonally the platforms would be built to allow ~170kph through running to allow trains not actually stopping to run through the city centre, saving the expense of a bypass lines.

The HS2 lines would run alongside, or above, the current ones to the freight yard adjacent to East End Park where it would continue in a straight line and then loop around to escape to the North East by going between the city and Garforth.

Once you are that far east not going to York saves roughly 6km so is basically inconsequential.

As for York, you would approach to York along the alignment of the ECML from London, using the obsolete railway land and possibly sacrificing that new fourth approach line (since most of the Intercity traffic will be gone).
It would then climb onto a viaduct, cross over the York Avoiders and have a station with two platforms and two through roads over the current NRM car park, and then escape down the alignment of the line to Scarborough (which would be singled for a short distance) before looping back around to pass East of Haxby and return to a northerly direction.

EDIT:

As to the price of running fixed formation 400m trains rather than coupling 200m sets.

If we assume the maintenance of a TGV Duplex vehicle is roughly £1/mile (more than double a normal EMU) and that a High speed trainset's traction package has an overall 80% capacity factor (including regenerative braking) then the cost of 12 18m trailers (two powered but with maintenance free PMMs) running to Birmingham and back would be:-

Maintenance: ~120 miles in each direction -> ~240 x 12 vehicle miles -> ~2880 vehicle miles -> ~£2880
Electricity: ~45 minutes under power in each direction -> ~90 minutes under power -> 1.5hrs x 8800kW x 80% -> 10560kW.hr

10560kW.hr at ~6p/kWh is roughly £633 worth of electricity so the total costs are ~£3550.
(NOTE: Capital costs are irrelevant as this stock has already been purchased regardless and a 400m trainset likely costs as much as 2 200m trainsets largely made of the same components, likewise as trains are fitted with through corridors and all stations will be protected with barriers additional crew are not required, as for track access charges I'm having trouble calculating this as it seems to be chiefly based on price-per-path, so I'll just use my conservative maintenance estimate to cover it).

So a single TGV Duplex has 545 seats while a Grand Capacite trainset will have somewhere in the region of 1200, leading to roughly ~655 additional seats.
This means that roughly 655 additional passengers could be carried and this would be the lower bound for the additional ticket prices.
£3550/655 = ~£5.40 assuming every seat is full.

I doubt every seat would be full but additional off-peak Birmingham tickets could be sold for less than £10 quite easily in my estimation. With the additional Manchester and Leeds tickets coming in at less than £15.
And this is before we consider the extra crew and paths used for ECS moves to move the peak time sets around or the fact that the additional seats would be all standard class in all likelihood, increasing the additional seat count still further.
And as to having to keep more stock in for repair it is likely that the HS fleet will be sufficient large that failure rates will be easy to predict statistically, meaning that the total number of vehicles held in reserve should not change, just they will be formed into one set instead of two.
 
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Waverley125

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as Leeds City station will likely be rebuilt again prior to the arrival of HS2, I prefer the route into central Leeds using the alignment of the current Wakefield line with the Wakefield traffic redirected through Cottingley using a relatively short cutting/cut and cover tunnel.

Leeds City would be completely rebuilt with a nice new almost entirely transparent ETFE roof with a new concourse above the platforms in a sort of reverse St Pancras, additional platforms would be added over the current car park, the current bays would be extended to full platforms (is the facade at Leeds listed?).

Additionally if more platforms were required they could be built above the lower ones, level with the new concourse.

The viaduct on the east approach would either be double decked (with High speed trains on top) or widened to four tracks depending on what ended up being cheaper. Additonally the platforms would be built to allow ~170kph through running to allow trains not actually stopping to run through the city centre, saving the expense of a bypass lines.

The HS2 lines would run alongside, or above, the current ones to the freight yard adjacent to East End Park where it would continue in a straight line and then loop around to escape to the North East by going between the city and Garforth.

Once you are that far east not going to York saves roughly 6km so is basically inconsequential.

As for York, you would approach to York along the alignment of the ECML from London, using the obsolete railway land and possibly sacrificing that new fourth approach line (since most of the Intercity traffic will be gone).
It would then climb onto a viaduct, cross over the York Avoiders and have a station with two platforms and two through roads over the current NRM car park, and then escape down the alignment of the line to Scarborough (which would be singled for a short distance) before looping back around to pass East of Haxby and return to a northerly direction.

EDIT:

As to the price of running fixed formation 400m trains rather than coupling 200m sets.

If we assume the maintenance of a TGV Duplex vehicle is roughly £1/mile (more than double a normal EMU) and that a High speed trainset's traction package has an overall 80% capacity factor (including regenerative braking) then the cost of 12 18m trailers (two powered but with maintenance free PMMs) running to Birmingham and back would be:-

Maintenance: ~120 miles in each direction -> ~240 x 12 vehicle miles -> ~2880 vehicle miles -> ~£2880
Electricity: ~45 minutes under power in each direction -> ~90 minutes under power -> 1.5hrs x 8800kW x 80% -> 10560kW.hr

10560kW.hr at ~6p/kWh is roughly £633 worth of electricity so the total costs are ~£3550.
(NOTE: Capital costs are irrelevant as this stock has already been purchased regardless and a 400m trainset likely costs as much as 2 200m trainsets largely made of the same components, likewise as trains are fitted with through corridors and all stations will be protected with barriers additional crew are not required, as for track access charges I'm having trouble calculating this as it seems to be chiefly based on price-per-path, so I'll just use my conservative maintenance estimate to cover it).

So a single TGV Duplex has 545 seats while a Grand Capacite trainset will have somewhere in the region of 1200, leading to roughly ~655 additional seats.
This means that roughly 655 additional passengers could be carried and this would be the lower bound for the additional ticket prices.
£3550/655 = ~£5.40 assuming every seat is full.

I doubt every seat would be full but additional off-peak Birmingham tickets could be sold for less than £10 quite easily in my estimation. With the additional Manchester and Leeds tickets coming in at less than £15.
And this is before we consider the extra crew and paths used for ECS moves to move the peak time sets around or the fact that the additional seats would be all standard class in all likelihood, increasing the additional seat count still further.
And as to having to keep more stock in for repair it is likely that the HS fleet will be sufficient large that failure rates will be easy to predict statistically, meaning that the total number of vehicles held in reserve should not change, just they will be formed into one set instead of two.

And in fantasyland that works. A few reasons why City won't be rebuilt like that...

1) It's on a viaduct, entirely brick arched (including the carpark), the structure is already at load bearing capacity, you'd have to do serious work to make is strong enough to hold even more infrastructure.

2) There's no space. The place 'on top of the carpark' you highlight is already needed for further western capacity on the Harrogate & Airedale/Wharfedale lines, especially if plans to increase frequency over the S&C & LNW, and to introduce through services to Glasgow via the S&C come to fruition.

Moreover, the area to the south of the station is highly built up, and construction is starting on new buildings. There's not enough capacity at City station now, without adding more requirements for longer trains. City House (the office block attack) is also not owned by NR, you'd have to buy out the entire space to demolish it, and you'd then not have a concourse to speak of for City station as a whole.

The viaduct on the eastern approach is also not strong enough to stand a second one on top of it, additionally accessing the site to start construction would be a nightmare given the constriction around City's eastern throat right through to Marsh Lane. Further to this, if you were running on top of the Eastern approach, you'd break all the overbridges, and either have to build new ones (humpbacks?) or drop the trackbed in EEP tunnnel to allow for 2 decks.

Then you've got to build a fairly significant viaduct over the Valley between Beeston & Cottingley, to bring extra classic trains onto the already congested Huddersfield lines, which will soon be handling up to 10tph through them.

In other words, HELL to the NO. This plan is STUPID.


Alternatively, in what I'll call 'sane world'

The southeastern approach (i.e. Methley Junction-Hunslet) is wide enough for 6 lines from Stourton, allowing for both a completely segregated HS approach, and potential 4-tracking of that line at a later date. No tunnelling, viaducting etc etc needed, just laying the line.

At Crown Point, you reach the approach to the old Crown Point goods station, which is still there & unused. The station site is a retail park, with low land values and no problematic infrastructure already there. You can uy & demolish relatively cheaply, and build the station on a gradient so that the line can duck under Hunslet Lane (road viaduct inset into the station Roof) and be at a level to pass under the Aire by the time it reaches the portals (I'd imagine just before Waterloo Street).

You'd then need a tunnel between 1.5 and 2 miles to go out to Killingbeck, where you could again have an isolated line before swinging north at Cross Gates.

This is beneficial for several reasons:

1) It's cheaper. As in ****eloads cheaper. One tunnel, one station, and additional tracks on existing corridors.

2) It requires no more infrastructure changes. Sending HS to city would require a huge extra redevelopment of City station, beyond the already planned Main concourse redevelopment & 3 new platforms. Given that's then City full, putting iron blocks on capacity enhancement is very silly indeed.

3) Well located station. Given the station building would be at the north end of a Crown Point station (i.e. on Waterloo Street/Meadow Lane junction), it would be just south of the river but still eminently within the city centre (you could see right up Briggate from the main entrance), and could be easily connected to city via a footbridge over the Aire and a southeastern entrance on Sovereign Street (which is also the prime site for relocating the long-distance Coach station). This is a site much preferred by everyone in Leeds, and would be a catalyst for development on the Southside, as well as being very handy for Holbeck Urban Village and Clarence Dock.


Altogether, anyone who thinks Leeds station will be at City is in dreamland, the cost of taking it there and the problems it incurs doing so is going to be way too expensive. The easiest option is Crown Point, the major battle is going to be ensuring it's build as a through station for connections to the north.



3)
 

HSTEd

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And in fantasyland that works. A few reasons why City won't be rebuilt like that...

1) It's on a viaduct, entirely brick arched (including the carpark), the structure is already at load bearing capacity, you'd have to do serious work to make is strong enough to hold even more infrastructure.

2) There's no space. The place 'on top of the carpark' you highlight is already needed for further western capacity on the Harrogate & Airedale/Wharfedale lines, especially if plans to increase frequency over the S&C & LNW, and to introduce through services to Glasgow via the S&C come to fruition.

Moreover, the area to the south of the station is highly built up, and construction is starting on new buildings. There's not enough capacity at City station now, without adding more requirements for longer trains. City House (the office block attack) is also not owned by NR, you'd have to buy out the entire space to demolish it, and you'd then not have a concourse to speak of for City station as a whole.

The viaduct on the eastern approach is also not strong enough to stand a second one on top of it, additionally accessing the site to start construction would be a nightmare given the constriction around City's eastern throat right through to Marsh Lane. Further to this, if you were running on top of the Eastern approach, you'd break all the overbridges, and either have to build new ones (humpbacks?) or drop the trackbed in EEP tunnnel to allow for 2 decks.

Then you've got to build a fairly significant viaduct over the Valley between Beeston & Cottingley, to bring extra classic trains onto the already congested Huddersfield lines, which will soon be handling up to 10tph through them.

In other words, HELL to the NO. This plan is STUPID.


Alternatively, in what I'll call 'sane world'

The southeastern approach (i.e. Methley Junction-Hunslet) is wide enough for 6 lines from Stourton, allowing for both a completely segregated HS approach, and potential 4-tracking of that line at a later date. No tunnelling, viaducting etc etc needed, just laying the line.

At Crown Point, you reach the approach to the old Crown Point goods station, which is still there & unused. The station site is a retail park, with low land values and no problematic infrastructure already there. You can uy & demolish relatively cheaply, and build the station on a gradient so that the line can duck under Hunslet Lane (road viaduct inset into the station Roof) and be at a level to pass under the Aire by the time it reaches the portals (I'd imagine just before Waterloo Street).

You'd then need a tunnel between 1.5 and 2 miles to go out to Killingbeck, where you could again have an isolated line before swinging north at Cross Gates.

This is beneficial for several reasons:

1) It's cheaper. As in ****eloads cheaper. One tunnel, one station, and additional tracks on existing corridors.

2) It requires no more infrastructure changes. Sending HS to city would require a huge extra redevelopment of City station, beyond the already planned Main concourse redevelopment & 3 new platforms. Given that's then City full, putting iron blocks on capacity enhancement is very silly indeed.

3) Well located station. Given the station building would be at the north end of a Crown Point station (i.e. on Waterloo Street/Meadow Lane junction), it would be just south of the river but still eminently within the city centre (you could see right up Briggate from the main entrance), and could be easily connected to city via a footbridge over the Aire and a southeastern entrance on Sovereign Street (which is also the prime site for relocating the long-distance Coach station). This is a site much preferred by everyone in Leeds, and would be a catalyst for development on the Southside, as well as being very handy for Holbeck Urban Village and Clarence Dock.


Altogether, anyone who thinks Leeds station will be at City is in dreamland, the cost of taking it there and the problems it incurs doing so is going to be way too expensive. The easiest option is Crown Point, the major battle is going to be ensuring it's build as a through station for connections to the north.



3)

1) Given that suburban trains in London can do 24tph in each direction suitable realignments of the through suburban lines (such as caused by the proposed realignment of the Wakefield Line) and electrification of the line to york would allow all suburban trains to be collapsed onto two of the through platforms, allowing all London-Leeds conventional trains to move into the bays.
Indeed you could probably fit all North Transpennine trains onto another same pair of platforms with the suitable realignments.

Platform capacity is not really the issue at the current time, the issue is primarily in the station throat.

2) Any station at Crown Point will certainly not be for through services, the northern approach would be a complete nightmare to take at any sort of speed, the costs would be colossal and you would still have to rebuild Leeds City anyway.
At best you would get a delta junction south of Leeds which would require any South-Leeds-North trains to reverse and thus be non competitive.

3) The structural limitations of the viaducts can be dealt with by filling the arches with concrete if possible, or simply building a new station concourse in the undercroft and just be a carbon copy of St Pancras.
Additionally the eastern bridges would only have to be double-decked/widened for at most 800m, as it appears they end rapidly and it appears there would be room for four/six tracks all the way through if you replace the embankments with retaining walls.

4) Oh and the southern approach to Crown Point is far appealing than the approach to City I outlined, you end up either going around the houses or having to tunnel far more extensively.
 
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