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HS2, unaffordable in ten steps?

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The Ham

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I'm going to answer my own questions, and although I can't be certain of the exact outcome the answers I'm providing are probably fairly likely and are based on general principles rather than on details which may be a decade away before they are decided upon.

Can you explain how 5 extra platforms at Manchester will only benefit London (or for that matter the other platforms which are proposed outside of London)?

The likelihood is that the extra platform space freed up by moving the long distance services to the HS2 platforms will mean more local services. What that looks like in detail is unknown, but it's fairly safe to say that there would be more local services. As such there will most likely be benefits beyond just London.

Can you explain how improving journey times for those between Birmingham and several Northern cities is only benefiting London?

Given people's preference to get places faster people will opt to use these services, however people are also cost sensitive and so if the ticket costs have a large cost disparity between the existing and HS2 ticket prices then no one will use them.

Given the large capacity of the HS2 trains there's little advantage in seeing the prices high. However let's for a moment assume that they are set higher there would still be some who use the HS2 services. Even if this is only 1 in 50 people that's still upto 5 people who aren't using the current XC services per service.

That means that there's more XC capacity for more passengers. However the closer to the existing ticket prices the HS2 tickets are the greater the number of people who will swap to HS2.

If we assume that an existing ticket was £50, then if HS2 charged £150 they would get only a few people out of 1,000 existing passengers (an income of £600). If they dropped the cost to £75 then they'd probably get 100 people (an income of £7,500). Whilst if they set the price at £50 they would get 999 (allowing for those who have decided not to use HS2)
of those 1,000 people (an income of £49,950). As such if you were HS2 what Rick price is most likely? I would guess the £50 one, which is the same as existing.

As such the numbers of people moving from existing services to HS2 is likely to very high, meaning that for those who's stations are served by existing services and not HS2 would likely have more capacity available to them.

Can you explain how providing a significant increase in capacity between Manchester and Birmingham and they their airports only benefiting London?

Again, assuming similar ticket prices which would generate the most income as detailed above, chances are that there's going to be a lot more capacity to the airports.

Can you explain how by removing long distance services from the existing lines, and therefore allow extra services to be run, will only benefit London?

Although there is likely to be more services for London, there's also likely to be services to other places (such as suggested in my response to the platforms). Therefore there's likely to be benefits to other places, even if these haven't been defined yet.
 
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The Ham

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Good morning everyone!

Here is our publication: HS2: What Is It and How Could It Be Improved?

https://medium.com/hs2-what-is-it-and-how-it-could-it-be-done-better

We have summarising videos, and in-depth articles to substantiate our claims and explain better.

We have Social, Economic and Environmental Sustainability guidelines for the recommendations we make.

https://medium.com/hs2-what-is-it-and-how-it-could-it-be-done-better

I think it would be of interest to some here.

I hope to hear from you, for whatever purpose. We are very open to comments on what you like, what you would like to see... etc

If you'd like to collaborate with us by either writing or spreading the word, it would be wonderful.

I hope all is well with you and that you have a wonderful day

Best regards,

V

An interesting website with some interesting points, however I would suggest that some of the assumptions made (chiefly those on the article about improving city public transport). As it is assuming that there's going to be no change to existing services (it specifically references existing Intercity services, including Virgin services).

This is not going to be the case, in that most of the long distance services will become the HS2 services and those that don't will focus on passenger travel to and/or from the stations not served by HS2.

It should also be noted that there's likely to be improvements to local services by removing the long distance services from the existing network. As such some of the improvements that are being called for may by implicated as part of future franchises by using the paths and station capacity currently used by long distance services.

Due to the government not specifying this at this point in time it may appear that HS2 isn't providing this advantage, however it is likely that there would be other advantages.

It is also of note that some elements which are linked to HS2 (although not funded by it), such as Crossrail 2, could provide quite wide ranging benefits. In the case of Crossrail 2 this could include extra services being able to be run to Exeter via Salisbury (although this would require extra doubling on the single tracked sections, as well but the business case of this would be significantly improved as there would be paths into London which there currently aren't available).

Also, even by the data shown on the site, there's a significant amount of money being spent on Rail and so the other investment being called for is being invested. As the total spent isn't all on HS2.

One final point, assuming you invested in local city improvements first, this could work. However there's the possibility that the benefits of this could be limited as there would be no capacity for people to transfer to longer distance services. There's also the possibility that money is spent to provide more platforms only to see HS2 then require further platforms leaving too many platforms.
 

6Gman

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An interesting website with some interesting points, however I would suggest that some of the assumptions made (chiefly those on the article about improving city public transport). As it is assuming that there's going to be no change to existing services (it specifically references existing Intercity services, including Virgin services).

The website is interesting, but rather undermined by some odd errors such being unable to spell George Osborne's name correctly, saying that Leeds had a similar tram system to Birmingham and that HS2 is a threat to Bechstein's Bat !
 
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