If BA leaves Gatwick, could this be the end of GTR's 'Gatwick Express' route?

[Deepgreen]

Moderator note: Split from

Gatwick Express class 387 in the brave new world

WIth the Corona outbreak and reduced timetable all Gatwick Express services are suspended. Does anyone know the situation? Are any Gatwick Express class 387 units out on Southern services or they simply stored at Lovers Walk and Stewarts Lane?

www.railforums.co.uk

If GatwickAirport's air traffic declines permanently as much as many predict, the need for a dedicated service may disappear.

This also applies to routes like the North Downs line, where platform extensions have just been completed for the alleged class 769s, and where a 3tph service is overdue by several timetable revisions. The latter may now never materialise.

 

[JonathanH]

If Gatwick Airport's air traffic declines permanently as much as many predict, the need for a dedicated service may disappear. This also applies to routes like the North Downs line, where platform extensions have just been completed for the alleged class 769s, and where a 3tph service is overdue by several timetable revisions. The latter may now never materialise.

That is a bit far fetched - if the airport shut then obviously there could be a different timetable on the Brighton line, but for as long as there is a airport, I think the airport operator will want a branded direct train service and, at the current level of operation the signalling at Clapham Junction requires a service to go non-stop through the platforms.

As for 3tph on the North Downs line, I hope that if the decision is made to abandon the plans and retain 2tph, the existing timetable is retained rather than the one which puts the fast and slow trains on the opposite side of the hour and has ten minute dwells at Guildford. Of course, one option if Gatwick Airport were to eventually close would be to truncate the North Downs service at Redhill.

 

[Meerkat]

Does North Downs really need Gatwick to justify more trains?
it gets pretty busy and would attract more people if it was frequent enough to make better connections

 

[JonathanH]

Does North Downs really need Gatwick to justify more trains?
it gets pretty busy and would attract more people if it was frequent enough to make better connections

The 3tph timetable as drafted (the extra train only calling intermediately at Wokingham, Guildford, Dorking, Reigate and Redhill) is all about getting 2tph to Gatwick. You might have done something different if the priority was a more frequent flow from the Blackwater Valley into Reading or Guildford.

 

[southern442]

If Gatwick Airport's air traffic declines permanently as much as many predict, the need for a dedicated service may disappear. This also applies to routes like the North Downs line, where platform extensions have just been completed for the alleged class 769s, and where a 3tph service is overdue by several timetable revisions. The latter may now never materialise.

I don't think there will be a permanent decline per se.
However, even without the coronavirus outbreak, a very strong argument could be made for getting rid of the dedicated service.

 

[davetheguard]

I don't think there will be a permanent decline per se.
However, even without the coronavirus outbreak, a very strong argument could be made for getting rid of the dedicated service.

Or, at the very least the removal of the now hugely overpriced fares on Gatwick Express; and what extra do you get these days? You travel on the same class of EMU; you no longer have the "buy on board" ability, the removal of which has brought in ticket gates; and you no longer always have a train waiting in the platform at Gatwick available to board - so all you're getting for the large premium is fewer station stops on the way.

 

[Minstral25]

The 3tph timetable as drafted (the extra train only calling intermediately at Wokingham, Guildford, Dorking, Reigate and Redhill) is all about getting 2tph to Gatwick. You might have done something different if the priority was a more frequent flow from the Blackwater Valley into Reading or Guildford.

From my experience normally North Downs local traffic generates more patronage than Gatwick itself does so getting 3 tph is probably worth while. The issue of Timetable structure should be addressed separately as is off topic here, for example should the Reading to Guildford and Guildford to Redhill services become separate and additionally should North Downs extend beyond Gatwick to say Brighton.

On the Gatwick Express 387's - perhaps they should be rebranded "Gatwick and Coast Express" so that terminators are removed at Gatwick and they serve further destinations on the coast (Brighton/Eastbourne perhaps) but running non-stop from Victoria still (although I'd prefer to see them call at Clapham Junction too for connections to SWR and remove Airport passengers from local services)

 

[Bletchleyite]

On the Gatwick Express 387's - perhaps they should be rebranded "Gatwick and Coast Express" so that terminators are removed at Gatwick and they serve further destinations on the coast (Brighton/Eastbourne perhaps) but running non-stop from Victoria still (although I'd prefer to see them call at Clapham Junction too for connections to SWR and remove Airport passengers from local services)

Or turn it back into what it's meant to be - a self contained shuttle with a unit always waiting at each end. If demand is low, just run half hourly with 4-car only. Just stop discouraging people from using it by accepting the normal fares on it - or better still making it a quid or so cheaper to use it. Slow tourists with bags of luggage are not compatible with regular commuter services and are best kept off them.

By all means recreate an "InterCity service" on the BML with a distinct brand, but the GatEx shouldn't be part of it.

 

[Minstral25]

Or turn it back into what it's meant to be - a self contained shuttle with a unit always waiting at each end. If demand is low, just run half hourly with 4-car only. Just stop discouraging people from using it by accepting the normal fares on it - or better still making it a quid or so cheaper to use it. Slow tourists with bags of luggage are not compatible with regular commuter services and are best kept off them.

By all means recreate an "InterCity service" on the BML with a distinct brand, but the GatEx shouldn't be part of it.

The problem is that it would be a hardly used service on an over congested railway. It blocks provision of many other services along the line that are really needed. So best combine as part of another service that then gets more frequency and provides services to many more people.

4 coach services north of Purley are not really worth while

 

[BayPaul]

Or turn it back into what it's meant to be - a self contained shuttle with a unit always waiting at each end. If demand is low, just run half hourly with 4-car only. Just stop discouraging people from using it by accepting the normal fares on it - or better still making it a quid or so cheaper to use it. Slow tourists with bags of luggage are not compatible with regular commuter services and are best kept off them.

By all means recreate an "InterCity service" on the BML with a distinct brand, but the GatEx shouldn't be part of it.

Really, no!
The BML needs to have entirely full-length trains that are not carrying fresh air. Combining all the GatEx services into express Brighton or other services seems like by far the best solution. Half hourly airport services really isn't good enough, they should be turn up and go, otherwise people will go by car. The slow speed of the tourists isn't a big deal, as there is only one station en-route where they are embarking/debarking, so it only would add a few minutes to through timings. The baggage is a challenge, but if the train is suitably designed for both flows, with areas suitable for baggage or standees (and bearing in mind that the timings tend to be different - Gatwick doesn't have all that many early arrivals that will be on peak trains into London) there is no reason why it shouldn't work fine. I would personally review the fares structure, but

 

[Triumph]

I know this has nothing to do with Gatwick and the 387's but Heathrow needs to be addressed as well!
The usage of the Heathrow Express has dropped dramatically during the past year even before COVID-19.
Mon-Fri midday and Saturdays the trains carry little more than fresh air.
If it is necessary to have a non-stop service to Heathrow why not run them through the Crossrail tunnels to Liverpool St or further east and free up a platform at Paddington.
As it is only 5 car trains run all day on Saturdays and Sundays until the late afternoon.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unlike GatEx, HEx is a commercial open access service. If it ceases to be profitable it'll just go away. I personally reckon Crossrail will kill it.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

If the emergency timetable is still running in May, will there be no timetable change and Southern services continue running to Brighton or will the timetable change and Brighton have no service to Victoria?

During the Gatwick rebuild, I would imagine trains still need to run (and serve the airport), so I expect a limited Victoria-Brighton service serving just 2 lines with Gatwick terminators suspended. I imagine the old diversionary route via Sutton is too congested now with no available paths

Oh and I'm sure the red 387s will be utilised throughout in 12-car formation

 

[Meerkat]

Unlike GatEx, HEx is a commercial open access service. If it ceases to be profitable it'll just go away. I personally reckon Crossrail will kill it.

Or HEx grows to include the Southern Link.
Connecting Woking/Guildford (and all their connections) to Heathrow (with more rail/tube/bus connections) and OOC for HS2 and Thames Valley trains has got to be worth a few quid.
Get building it now!
The possibility might be a good reason for HEx to use rather than lose the paths....

 

[Minstral25]

During the Gatwick rebuild, I would imagine trains still need to run (and serve the airport), so I expect a limited Victoria-Brighton service serving just 2 lines with Gatwick terminators suspended. I imagine the old diversionary route via Sutton is too congested now with no available paths

Oh and I'm sure the red 387s will be utilised throughout in 12-car formation

Or roughly what GTR have already announced.

Gatwick terminators to not run and Southern's Victoria to Brighton service withdrawn for a half-hourly Eastbourne/Ore service with the Littlehampton Service no longer splitting at Haywards Heath.

This of course caused chaos when Gatwick Expresses was not going to accept Southern tickets at Brighton, but has since been allowed.

 

[Triumph]

Looks like BA are completely pulling out of Gatwick now and will be running only from Heathrow.
So that will create a big hole at Gatwick.

 

[matt_world2004]

I know this has nothing to do with Gatwick and the 387's but Heathrow needs to be addressed as well!
The usage of the Heathrow Express has dropped dramatically during the past year even before COVID-19.
Mon-Fri midday and Saturdays the trains carry little more than fresh air.
If it is necessary to have a non-stop service to Heathrow why not run them through the Crossrail tunnels to Liverpool St or further east and free up a platform at Paddington.
As it is only 5 car trains run all day on Saturdays and Sundays until the late afternoon.

They are incompatible with the platform edge doors in the core , also because of the high frequency service in the core they would not be able to run express from Paddington to Stratford because they will be stuck behind a red signal constantly.

 

[JonathanH]

Looks like BA are completely pulling out of Gatwick now and will be running only from Heathrow.
So that will create a big hole at Gatwick.

Forever or just for the foreseeable future?

 

[cactustwirly]

Looks like BA are completely pulling out of Gatwick now and will be running only from Heathrow.
So that will create a big hole at Gatwick.

Your source?
I can see them reducing capacity, but not completely withdrawing.

 

[JonathanH]

Your source?
I can see them reducing capacity, but not completely withdrawing.

BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes - BBC News

The airline has told staff that it cannot rule out keeping the operation closed indefinitely.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think it is quite likely - Gatwick is just an overflow for their operation at Heathrow and prices tend to be lower from Gatwick. Having two nearby bases instead of one can't really make sense in the new world.

 

[Triumph]

They are incompatible with the platform edge doors in the core , also because of the high frequency service in the core they would not be able to run express from Paddington to Stratford because they will be stuck behind a red signal constantly.

They wouldn't need to run fast from Paddington to Stratford, they could stop at the 4 stations to Liverpool St, which would greatly cut down passengers changing to the Hammersmith line at Paddington.
I would very surprised if anyone wants to go to Stratford from Heathrow!
Regarding the door edges in the core, just replace the trains with Crossrail stock.

 

[Triumph]

Your source?
I can see them reducing capacity, but not completely withdrawing.
[/QUOTE

BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes - BBC News

The airline has told staff that it cannot rule out keeping the operation closed indefinitely.

www.bbc.co.uk

Thank you.

 

[matt_world2004]

They wouldn't need to run fast from Paddington to Stratford, they could stop at the 4 stations to Liverpool St, which would greatly cut down passengers changing to the Hammersmith line at Paddington.
I would very surprised if anyone wants to go to Stratford from Heathrow!
Regarding the door edges in the core, just replace the trains with Crossrail stock.

I don't think TfL would approve of a train service running express from Heathrow central to paddington express a minimum of a stop at Hayes and Ealing Broadway would be demanded. It would also have to be part of the ticketing system for crossrail and at that point your better off handing the operation over to Crossrail

 

[Meerkat]

I would very surprised if anyone wants to go to Stratford from Heathrow!

Why? Sports facilities and pilots of office space over there!

 

[Jim Jehosofat]

I would very surprised if anyone wants to go to Stratford from Heathrow!

Those travelling to most of East Anglia would. One change of train at Stratford to get to Norwich, what's not to like?

 

[matt_world2004]

IIRC the track access agreement for the central operating section is quite restrictive, and it would be cost prohibitive for an four trains per hour service to have an open access agreement with rail for London and London underground. Especially as there would be an uneven service interval.

IIRC it also requires the operator to instal their own ticketing equipment at stations in the core and have staff available to respond to issues in the core.

Have rolling stock that's compatible with the cores operating section.

There is also a requirement for any operator using the central operating section to indemnify crossrail for any losses caused by delays or disruption to its services which could be huge given how big the fines are for disruption to Crossrail services

Crossrail Central Operating Section

These documents show how train service operators might apply for access to the Crossrail Central Operation Section

tfl.gov.uk

There's a lot of documents to wade through though.

It's £713 per path from pudding mill lane to westbourne park plus there are station access charges of £20 to £134 per station call.

 

[Minstral25]

BA may not reopen at Gatwick once pandemic passes - BBC News

The airline has told staff that it cannot rule out keeping the operation closed indefinitely.

www.bbc.co.uk

I think it is quite likely - Gatwick is just an overflow for their operation at Heathrow and prices tend to be lower from Gatwick. Having two nearby bases instead of one can't really make sense in the new world.

In any case they are being slaughtered by EasyJet who have just under 50% of passengers at Gatwick, plus Emirates, Virgin and Norwegian move a lot of passengers through as well. Wouldn't be good for Gatwick but not the worse thing that can happen. Now if EasyJet left!!!!

They wouldn't need to run fast from Paddington to Stratford, they could stop at the 4 stations to Liverpool St, which would greatly cut down passengers changing to the Hammersmith line at Paddington.
I would very surprised if anyone wants to go to Stratford from Heathrow!
Regarding the door edges in the core, just replace the trains with Crossrail stock.

Plenty of passengers will go to Stratford for connecting services to West Anglia, East London, Norwich and Southend. Eventually they may be "Elizabeth Line" and call at Ealing, Old Oak, Paddington and all stations through the Crossrail tunnels.

 

[HowardGWR]

If BA left Gatwick, watch EasyJet and others make more swift code-sharing deals!

 

[cactustwirly]

If BA left Gatwick, watch EasyJet and others make more swift code-sharing deals!

And it leaves space for WizzAir and Ryanair to swoop in!

 

[FenMan]

If a vaccine is developed and is made widely available (two "ifs" I know) then no airline would stand idly by to watch competitors hoover up rapidly increasing passenger numbers. So if BA* were to permanently vacate its slots at Gatwick (in addition to slots that are very likely to be vacated by Norwegian, as it's basically bust) there would be no shortage of demand to fill them up again.

*BA has a long history of being a reluctant operator out of Gatwick and most of its flights are subcontracted anyway. I suspect it's kept its remaining routes running to block competitors from using the slots.