Impact of the Johnson Ministry on the UK Rail Industry

[Jorge Da Silva]

Ok, now Grayling is out (this is not the main topic of this thread, so please do not go on about this), and Shapps in and Johnson in government, what sort of plans could end up coming into fruition baring in mind Shapps and Johnson have both supported devolution. Johnson is also a massive fan of transport projects hence why he has yet to scrap HS2 (or at least reluctant to). What schemes/plans could come up? Devolution? Crossrail 2? HS3/NPR?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I really hope they just reinstate all the Graylinged projects for a start and finally confirm TransPennine Route Upgrade - even if only partial electrification.

 

[pdeaves]

I'm desperately hoping for electrifying Didcot-Oxford but not holding my breath. That would make sensible use of electric trains matching where people want to go.

 

[pt_mad]

Hopefully :Committment to electrify Western Route as far as Swansea and Temple Meads.
Electrification at least as far as Leicester on the MML if not further, or the whole lot.
Some plan to get voyagers out from under the wires for more than 50 miles, across the whole network, including the West Coast Partnership.
Taking into account the committment to no diesel after 2040 and zero net carbon emissions after 2050. We better start further wiring sooner rather than later.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

Hey, if BoJo was committed to transport projects he wouldn't be laying down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow Airport because it affects many of his constituates.

 

[DarloRich]

Impact: zero

 

[deltic]

Well Shapps has asked for an explanation of why delays have increased over the last few years. I can see a scrapping of infrastructure projects and concentration on day to day operational issues and further pushing of hydrogen trains as a way of reducing the need to pay for expensive electrification projects.

 

[hwl]

Well Shapps has asked for an explanation of why delays have increased over the last few years. I can see a scrapping of infrastructure projects and concentration on day to day operational issues and further pushing of hydrogen trains as a way of reducing the need to pay for expensive electrification projects.

NR already have a nice report from 3.5 years ago on why delays had increased in the preceding years (and newer material too for certain routes too). There are direct causes and indirect impacts that multiply them. The biggest direct delay increase cause within railway control are station dwell times being unrealistic, passenger usage has increase but the stock can't cope (e.g. trains not full length, narrow doors, not designed for standing) so that real dwell times were longer than timetabled dwell times ideally needing action in both directions: action to reduce dwell times and being realistic about timetabling.

The May 2018 southern timetable showed the benefits of being realistic on dwell times. (the southern network has the largest indirect delay multiplier due to network geography and lack of grade separation)

The new SW and SE franchises are mandating action on the rolling stock side.

Abellio Anglia seen resistant to accepting realistic dwell times in the future as then they wouldn't have enough rolling stock for another reason it also enables more blame to be pushed on NR.

One thing from the old NR report that has hardly seen any action is the importance of spreading people evenly along the train - this often means improving canopies so everyone does try to use a small number of doors at a station when it rains.

 

[StaffsWCML]

Well Shapps has asked for an explanation of why delays have increased over the last few years. I can see a scrapping of infrastructure projects and concentration on day to day operational issues and further pushing of hydrogen trains as a way of reducing the need to pay for expensive electrification projects.

The answer is fairly basic, because they keep handing out franchises to the same garbage companies. If they hand out franchises at least partially based on previous performance as opposed to pie in the sky schemes and liability shifting.

 

[Djgr]

Hopefully it will have no impact, because hopefully BoJo and the rest of his circus will be rapidly assigned to history.

 

[StaffsWCML]

Hopefully it will have no impact, because hopefully BoJo and the rest of his circus will be rapidly assigned to history.

And replace with what Comrade Corbyn and his circus! Not sure what is worse!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'd be very surprised if stalled electrification schemes keep Grant Shapps awake at night.
He's probably a bit more concerned about what happens on 1 November (when he will be in the firing line for the length of queues at Dover).

 

[baz962]

Hey, if BoJo was committed to transport projects he wouldn't be laying down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow Airport because it affects many of his constituates.

Bit different though, as more planes bring more noise and fuel pollution. Electrifying reduces both.

 

[Camden]

I think what comes next all hinges on whether Johnson wakes up to the reality of the job he took on, and starts putting substance behind his spin, or whether he falls into the civil servant led trap of regurgitating the Osborne years of snake oil sales.

Early signs (a meaningless visit to Manchester to re-announce a divisive overspend on some at the expense of others) have not been promising.

 

[ainsworth74]

I suspect it depends on what happens with HS2 in large part. If HS2 goes ahead as planned then I don't think we'll see much beyond what's already been committed to. Perhaps we might get lucky and see some extension to the GW wires (Didcot - Oxford perhaps the most obvious contender) but not much beyond that. If HS2 gets cancelled or severely curtailed (perhaps only completing as far as phase 2a (the line to Crewe) or maybe even just phase 1 (line to Birmingham)) then I suspect we'll probably see at least a commitment to significant spending on the conventional lines probably including electrification. I can well imagine a scenario where HS2 phase 2b is cancelled but the MML gets wired to Sheffield/Nottingham and Manchester gets platforms 15 and 16 for example.

 

[sprunt]

Wasted millions on a feasibility study into an escalator to the moon, probably.

 

[DarloRich]

hen I suspect we'll probably see at least a commitment to significant spending on the conventional lines probably including electrification. I can well imagine a scenario where HS2 phase 2b is cancelled but the MML gets wired to Sheffield/Nottingham and Manchester gets platforms 15 and 16 for example.

I don't. If HS2 gets cancelled beyond Birmingham ( which i have often said it might!) the money will go on trying to hide the impact of the no deal Brexit . It wont, beyond a few crumbs, go on domestic transport.

I think what comes next all hinges on whether Johnson wakes up to the reality of the job he took on, and starts putting substance behind his spin, or whether he falls into the civil servant led trap of regurgitating the Osborne years of snake oil sales.

Early signs (a meaningless visit to Manchester to re-announce a divisive overspend on some at the expense of others) have not been promising.

what do you expect? The announcement in Manchester was a standard new PM/Ministerial announcement designed to promise some vague future improvement many years hence that doesn't actually cost anything today but makes it look like the new bloke cares about your area and gets him in the paper looking like he care about your area.

Well Shapps has asked for an explanation of why delays have increased over the last few years.

It would save time if he just read a newspaper. The causes are obvious, but at least it looks like he is doing something!

He's probably a bit more concerned about what happens on 1 November (when he will be in the firing line for the length of queues at Dover).

No he wont! people like him wont own whats is coming.

 

[hooverboy]

NR already have a nice report from 3.5 years ago on why delays had increased in the preceding years (and newer material too for certain routes too). There are direct causes and indirect impacts that multiply them. The biggest direct delay increase cause within railway control are station dwell times being unrealistic, passenger usage has increase but the stock can't cope (e.g. trains not full length, narrow doors, not designed for standing) so that real dwell times were longer than timetabled dwell times ideally needing action in both directions: action to reduce dwell times and being realistic about timetabling.

The May 2018 southern timetable showed the benefits of being realistic on dwell times. (the southern network has the largest indirect delay multiplier due to network geography and lack of grade separation)

The new SW and SE franchises are mandating action on the rolling stock side.

Abellio Anglia seen resistant to accepting realistic dwell times in the future as then they wouldn't have enough rolling stock for another reason it also enables more blame to be pushed on NR.

One thing from the old NR report that has hardly seen any action is the importance of spreading people evenly along the train - this often means improving canopies so everyone does try to use a small number of doors at a station when it rains.

station dwell times can be compensated by better acceleration of rolling stock procured, or elimination of "tight spots" in the route which require hard deceleration to a set of obstacles,and then hard acceleration back to line speed on the other side.
on a rural route for instance, you can quite easily shave 2 or 3 minutes by a less severe grading of one set of points from a 20mph crossing to a 35/40mph crossing.lots and lots of those on the network,but they've been neglected for decades.

as for hydrogen trains, it's another fad.LNG will be much more useful.
Hydrogen has a very low calorific value,and needs insanely high pressure systems to work effectively.From a health+safety point of view it's batsh*t crazy!
(ok so hydrogen tanks get stored on the train roof so the gas cloud goes up...problem is it also goes out radially a LOT faster than a better controlled substance,hence more explosive.in the case of operating under the wires, given a decent amount of humidity/environmental conditions you have a very ready source of ignition)

LNG we are fortunate to have in spades in this country, far cheaper than diesel and rather less troublesome when you have problems.

the technology everyone REALLY wants to have is the enzymes that can convert plastics and long chain esters/hydrocarbons/polymers like carrier bags and Coke bottles , back into useable short chain types like propane/butane/hexane//heptane/octane

 

[hwl]

station dwell times can be compensated by better acceleration of rolling stock procured, or elimination of "tight spots" in the route which require hard deceleration to a set of obstacles,and then hard acceleration back to line speed on the other side.
on a rural route for instance, you can quite easily shave 2 or 3 minutes by a less severe grading of one set of points from a 20mph crossing to a 35/40mph crossing.lots and lots of those on the network,but they've been neglected for decades.

as for hydrogen trains, it's another fad.LNG will be much more useful.
Hydrogen has a very low calorific value,and needs insanely high pressure systems to work effectively.From a health+safety point of view it's batsh*t crazy!

LNG we are fortunate to have in spades in this country, far cheaper than diesel and rather less troublesome when you have problems.

What happens when the stock already has reasonable acceleration and there are lots of stops? In weighted passenger number terms station dwell times is the biggie but is need a multi-prongerd approach of which acceleration is part e.g. see SWR 701s for dual pedflow and acceleration approach. Agree with line speed stuff where it can make an impact.

I'm working on deflating Hydrogen...

 

[pt_mad]

.The May 2018 southern timetable showed the benefits of being realistic on dwell times. (the southern network has the largest indirect delay multiplier due to network geography and lack of grade separation)

The new SW and SE franchises are mandating action on the rolling stock side.

Abellio Anglia seen resistant to accepting realistic dwell times in the future as then they wouldn't have enough rolling stock for another reason it also enables more blame to be pushed on NR.

One thing from the old NR report that has hardly seen any action is the importance of spreading people evenly along the train - this often means improving canopies so everyone does try to use a small number of doors at a station when it rains.

Worthy of a thread in its own right. Some long distance intercity services have stops of one minute, yet passengers queue up for two or three doors. And if there's any booked assistance, or unbooked, they would either need to be rushed to keep the train's path, or, delay the train.

The answer is fairly basic, because they keep handing out franchises to the same garbage companies. If they hand out franchises at least partially based on previous performance as opposed to pie in the sky schemes and liability shifting.

But bidders need a pass to bid don't they? So random corporate speculators wouldn't actually be able to bid even if they were billionaires?

 

[ainsworth74]

don't. If HS2 gets cancelled beyond Birmingham ( which i have often said it might!) the money will go on trying to hide the impact of the no deal Brexit . It wont, beyond a few crumbs, go on domestic transport.

Hence why I said "comittment". I never said I thought they'd actually pony up the cash for it!

 

[DarloRich]

Hence why I said "comittment". I never said I thought they'd actually pony up the cash for it!

My apologies. I agree entirely in that case!

 

[hooverboy]

What happens when the stock already has reasonable acceleration and there are lots of stops?

..

maybe auto braking profile.
a bit less driver selectivity as to how he/she enters a particular station.

if the entry/exit is governed by the train knowing what is permissible in terms of speed change, environmental factors,wheelslip etc then they can probably achieve a more optimised approach than a manual driver, no matter how skilled they are.

should be thought of in the same way cars ABS took over from a driver actually knowing the technique of cadence braking(I suspect a lot of people under a certain age have not heard that term before!,it's what we had to learn before ABS existed,and you had bags of fun on ungritted roads in a rear-wheel drive!)

I know WSP exists, but that's just to stop everything locking and causing wheelflats, I'm talking a bit more up-market!

 

[hwl]

maybe auto braking profile.
a bit less driver selectivity as to how he/she enters a particular station.

if the entry/exit is governed by the train knowing what is permissible in terms of speed change, environmental factors,wheelslip etc then they can probably achieve a more optimised approach than a manual driver, no matter how skilled they are.

Soon to be seen on 701s combined with auto door opening

 

[StaffsWCML]

But bidders need a pass to bid don't they? So random corporate speculators wouldn't actually be able to bid even if they were billionaires?

Not sure at present there is much to stop anyone bidding if you make the right 'promises' to the government to implement things on their agenda. Much along the lines of how a ferry company with no ferries won a ferry contract under Grayling.

Really the government need to be more interested in encouraging whoever it is to run a decent reliable service.

Too much focus is going on shiny new things instead of getting the basic right! I would rather be on a 30 year old train with no Wi-Fi, no sockets, that was well maintained and on time rather than a brand new shiny train with nice paint that is late!

 

[Djgr]

And replace with what Comrade Corbyn and his circus! Not sure what is worse!

Well yes, except Jeremy Corbyn does know something about railways, in that he subscribes to (or used to) a well-known fortnightly railway magazine (and also a bit more about the realities of broken Britain, outside the world of the 1%-ers)

 

[pt_mad]

Not sure at present there is much to stop anyone bidding if you make the right 'promises' to the government to implement things on their agenda. Much along the lines of how a ferry company with no ferries won a ferry contract under Grayling.

Really the government need to be more interested in encouraging whoever it is to run a decent reliable service.

Too much focus is going on shiny new things instead of getting the basic right! I would rather be on a 30 year old train with no Wi-Fi, no sockets, that was well maintained and on time rather than a brand new shiny train with nice paint that is late!

Yes i think they need to be a 'passholder' to be able to bid for franchises which afaik comes from a proven track record of anyone can clarify.

Weather a private bus company who runs their small operator excellently could get hold of a pass if they wanted to I don't know? Such as the Scarborough bus company - is this a private firm(forgot the name)?, or Midland Classic.

 

[hooverboy]

Too much focus is going on shiny new things instead of getting the basic right! I would rather be on a 30 year old train with no Wi-Fi, no sockets, that was well maintained and on time rather than a brand new shiny train with nice paint that is late!

I totally agree!
not just in train world but industry in general is way to much emphasis on marketing and new shiny stuff, and nowhere near enough on the engineers and people that actually make the gear work.

 

[pt_mad]

I totally agree!
not just in train world but industry in general is way to much emphasis on marketing and new shiny stuff, and nowhere near enough on the engineers and people that actually make the gear work.

Aye but even if all Pacers ran right time they'd be widely slated.

 

[hooverboy]

Yes i think they need to be a 'passholder' to be able to bid for franchises which afaik comes from a proven track record of anyone can clarify.

Weather a private bus company who runs their small operator excellently could get hold of a pass if they wanted to I don't know? Such as the Scarborough bus company - is this a private firm(forgot the name)?, or Midland Classic.

I don't see why in truth.
they have tried to model the railway on airline transportation to a degree.

now what do you need to run that?
FAA certification that the planes are safe to run+inspections
air traffic control slots

that's about it.
the rest is pretty much open access as long as the operator can pay for the berths/slots