I think that it's interesting for rail to become so popular, I think that rail is a bit like the roads though in that the deterrent to using the train is overcrowding and reliability. If that puts off people and you then fix those problems, those people will come back to try the train again and over time, you end up back in square one.
Similar to increase road capacity = more people travel by car (not less traffic as our politicians and councillors think).
Buses just end up stuck in the same traffic as the car in most towns/cities so why get on a bus when you can sit in the same traffic but in the comfort of your own vehicle (also you don't need to travel to or from the bus stop at either end of the bus journey).
Yes, induced demand is definitely a proven concept on roads and I'm sure the same applies to rail to a certain extent. I think it is hard to discern between suppressed demand (where people don't make trips because of poor conditions) and induced demand (where people make trips because of the good conditions). I personally don't go back to the midlands very often because the journey is so difficult and expensive, so that's suppressed demand. However, if I got a carriage to myself and fares twice as cheap, I'd probably venture more often because of the convenience.
I think induced demand is probably less damaging when it happens on railways as each passenger has a lower carbon impact and the increased traffic doesn't pose a danger to others. I also reckon the walking, biking or getting a lift to the station would put you off making unnecessary journeys because of the convenience.
It probably also depends on the area. I reckon Crossrail 2's ridership will probably be made up of quite a lot of induced demand, whereas a London Underground capacity upgrade will most likely be entirely quenching suppressed demand.
Bus lanes and guided busways are a good solution to the bus problem, but most routes don't have these unfortunately.
Driving into big cities- any big city- is a grim experience. Expensive, too, if you then have to pay to park all day. So rail will attract people who work in cities away from their cars.
Most people don't work in cities though. They work in out-of-town business parks, in industrial estates, in shopping centres, in small towns. For those people, the car will always win hands-down.
When I lived and worked in London, a car was and is a stupid idea. But even 25 miles out, in Hemel Hempstead, a car was essential; sure, I used the train to work in Central London, but I needed a lift to the station, and my wife couldn't get to her job at a hospital in the next town without a car.
Younger people are now more likely to have the city centre apartment so don't drive (why would they?), but once the young 'uns join us middle-aged parents out in suburbia they'll quickly turn into a two car family.
Yes, the centres of cities are really not designed around cars...
Out of town shopping centres do seem to be on the decline somewhat, most likely due to online shopping, so I think the majority of in person retail is going to be done in the cities where people go for a day out/experience rather than pure convenience. Lots of businesses, like Maplin for example, made the jump to out of town stores at the worst possible time. Out of town business parks are also generally grim places, but I guess the real estate is cheap! The only ones I'll give a pass to are those built near stations or light rail lines, like NG2 business park just outside of Nottingham.
Personally I think I'll remain a city dweller for most of my life, but yes once the younger people move out into the suburbs many will get cars. Still, the UK seems to do a decent job of keeping most areas connected and our suburbs are still far more dense/walk-able than those you might see in North America for example.
Many factors influence someone's choices, including their age, location, domestic circumstances, their job and its location, and their income.
If I lived in a large city I might well feel able to use public transport for most journeys which were beyond walking distance. I could use a minicab to bring home a heavy load of shopping and hire a car for any longer journeys for which the train wasn't easily usable. As it is I live in a large village eight miles from Basingstoke. It's two thirds of a mile to the bus stop with a daytime service every thirty minutes to Basingstoke. It's a mile and a quarter to the station where the service is mostly hourly. I'm 80 and my wife is 79. I usually walk to the local shops (a third of a mile). If I go to London I always go by train but I usually drive to the station because I find it preferable not to have to walk home especially if I'm returning late at night - not because of safety concerns, though others might have them, but because at that point I want to get home as soon as possible. If we're shopping in a supermarket we use the car. There's one supermarket a mile before the centre of Basingstoke but the bus doesn't pass it. In any case, the car is the most convenient way to bring home a large quantity of purchases. My wife uses the car on the three afternoons a week she picks up a granddaughter from the local primary school, which is a mile away. She would now find a two-mile return walk stressful. If we're visiting our daughter's family who live in Whitchurch four miles away, or taking a granddaughter home, the car is far more convenient than the bus, which would require a seven or eight-minute walk at one end and a twelve minute walk at the other. Some might argue that as we're retired we've got time to wait for buses and the walking would do us good, but we have quite a lot of other things to do, and occupying your time is also said to be good for you. I don't have a bike because I think motorists generally don't give sufficient consideration to cyclists, i.e. cycling is risky.
I've presented these details because they show the range of factors that influence a person's decisions about how to travel; others will have a different range of commitments which affect their choices. What's also clear is that we, like a great many other people, have arranged our lives around the availability of a car and the things it enables you to do. It would be possible to live here without a car but we'd have to re-arrange our lives in several ways.
As long as you can drive confidently, I see no reason you should stop doing so!
Cycling is very scary! I've considered getting a bike, but honestly the roads terrify me.
Your point about people's lifestyles effecting their decisions on how to travel is very true! Even though I live in a city, if I liked going out to the countryside on weekends or worked at an out of town location, then I would be considerably more likely to drive, even though the local area around me has amenities close by.
My grandad used to live out in the burbs, but unfortunately is unable to drive now, which left him almost stranded in his house. We convinced him to move 20 miles closer to my parents in the Midlands and he currently lives in an apartment near the centre of town, which means he is closer to family and the shops which is very convenient.
I don't drive - I'm not old enough, so obviously cannot.
My only parent does not drive - she does not have a license, nor can she particularly afford to get one. Even if she could, I doubt we would be able to afford a car.
I could be able to take lessons and get one in about 2 years when I'm old enough. However I don't think I'd be able to afford a car either.
Therefore, whenever we go anywhere, it's either walking or public transport. The terrible public transport in Humberside doesn't help matters (I view Greater Manchester as having a comparatively good system when it's frequently referred to as terrible, to put it into context. London is space-age tech as far as I'm concerned).
I feel for you! Being trapped out in the suburbs in an area with rubbish public transport is the worst.
Sometimes I find it hard to get around with public transport in Greater Manchester and I only live just under two miles outside of the city centre, so the fact you find it worse is worrying!
The cost of learning can vary depending on how fast you pick it up, you might need some more lessons if you can't practice with your mum, but that will be far outweighed by the savings of not having to insure a car.
I definitely think that public transport plays a really important role in allowing people who don't have a car access to the same jobs, opportunities, shopping and leisure as other people! Unfortunately this has been eroded somewhat by the rise of entirely car-oriented developments, but things seem to be moving back in the right direction.