Is Crossrail going to be a complete victim of its success?

Status
Not open for further replies.

mrmartin

Member
Joined
17 Dec 2012
Messages
590
I live in East London, but have been having to go to Hammersmith in the west recently for work in a secondment (normally I work in the city).

I was thinking while on the H+C line that Crossrail is going to be ridiculously busy when it opens. Right now it is a horrible 1h10+ slog each way to do this journey. After Crossrail, it'll be more like 40m, which is tolerable. I would not take a job in west london if I had to do the current commute permenantly, but would if crossrail was open (probably).

This is also on top of all the demand that will come off the central line (and also there is a huge amount of unrealised demand I think on the central line - ie people that won't even consider a central line commute even if it is quicker time wise).

I really can see it being full to breaking point on day 1. Are there any studies or projections of how busy they think it will be?
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

contrex

Member
Joined
19 May 2009
Messages
305
In late 2013 Sir Peter Hendy, Commisioner of Transport for the Metropolis said:

"I predict that when Crossrail opens in 2018 it will be immediately full. The people who predicted that it will take all the traffic out of Oxford Street or that we’ll be able to sit down on the Central Line in the rush hour will be wrong. It will just be full up with people."

Article on London Reconnections:

http://www.londonreconnections.com/2014/happens-crossrail-full-part-1-problem/

...Last month a report commissioned, at least in part, by the New West End Company and produced by Arup was published. It got quite an airing on the BBC local news. The news report stated that by 2026 many more people than previously thought would be heading to Oxford Street via Crossrail. This was the conclusion reached by looking at the expected figures for passenger numbers at three central Crossrail stations then. Not surprisingly the New West End Company were calling for dramatic measures to accommodate the greatly increased footfall which would make the environment outside two of the stations (Bond Street and Tottenham Court Road) more pleasant for the increased number of shoppers that, it was presumed, would be using them....
 
Last edited by a moderator:

theironroad

Established Member
Joined
21 Nov 2014
Messages
3,632
Location
London
I live in East London, but have been having to go to Hammersmith in the west recently for work in a secondment (normally I work in the city).

I was thinking while on the H+C line that Crossrail is going to be ridiculously busy when it opens. Right now it is a horrible 1h10+ slog each way to do this journey. After Crossrail, it'll be more like 40m, which is tolerable. I would not take a job in west london if I had to do the current commute permenantly, but would if crossrail was open (probably).

This is also on top of all the demand that will come off the central line (and also there is a huge amount of unrealised demand I think on the central line - ie people that won't even consider a central line commute even if it is quicker time wise).

I really can see it being full to breaking point on day 1. Are there any studies or projections of how busy they think it will be?

I reckon in summer especially there will be a lot of transfer from the central to crossrail. The difference between an air-conditioned crossrail and the sweltering temps the central line reach will encourage a shift even if not for a complete journey.
 

swt_passenger

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Apr 2010
Messages
25,973
It has always been intended as a Central Line relief, and I'd be gobsmacked if there were not vast amounts of research and passenger projections done before it was given the go ahead. It will be finding anything online that'll be the problem...
 

MadCommuter

Member
Joined
4 Oct 2010
Messages
543
Research and projections are exactly that. The reality is often very different. And to make it a political success, it will need to exceed projections. Cough Borders Line cough.
 

deltic

Established Member
Joined
8 Feb 2010
Messages
2,428
Peak hour load at Liverpool St on Crossrail is forecast to be around 16,000 on opening so people will be standing from day 1

Central line loading are expected to reduce by 10-30% in the central area so still very crowded
 

The Ham

Established Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
8,389
IIRC, I think I recall seeing an article saying that Faringdon had already passed the number of passengers expected when Crossrail opened.
 

al78

Established Member
Joined
7 Jan 2013
Messages
1,950
I wonder if the research and projections have taken into account the induced demand phenomenon.

https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/
...The concept is called induced demand, which is economist-speak for when increasing the supply of something (like roads) makes people want that thing even more....

This is normally associated with building new roads in an attempt to reduce traffic congestion, but I would not be surprised if a similar effect could happen on the railway.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
There is a lot of 'previous' when it comes down to underestimating the effects of "transformational" changes. The problem is that there's nothing to compare them against - each scheme is different.

Thameslink will also have a big boost when London Bridge is finished and the new trains are running. Farringdon is going to see another huge increase IMO.
 

deltic

Established Member
Joined
8 Feb 2010
Messages
2,428
because of the conservative way business cases are done induced demand is not included however there is a recognition that provision of additional capacity will reduce peak spreading to some degree and more people will travel in the peak hour
 

matt_world2004

Established Member
Joined
5 Nov 2014
Messages
3,521
Considering the Heathrow Connect is leaving passengers behind at Southall when going to paddington it is needed.
 

samuelmorris

Established Member
Joined
18 Jul 2013
Messages
4,992
Location
Brentwood, Essex
I don't see the demand on the Central line falling too much - I already avoid it most times of day and use the North/South Circle most of the time instead, e.g. Farringdon instead of Chancery Lane and sometimes Holborn, Barbican or Mansion House instead of St. Paul's, get to Oxford Circus via Kings Cross and the Victoria line and so on. It isn't quite so bad during winter months but on warm days peak time Central line travel really is deeply unpleasant, even though the service has a stunning throughput of passengers per hour and, certainly when compared to NR services, is quite reliable.

When Crossrail is introduced, a lot of that demand will transfer to it. I'm not sure if necessarily that many people using the Central line will switch because the line is of minimal utility to people currently using Holborn or Oxford Circus. About the only station I anticipate shedding a fair number of Central line passengers to Crossrail is Tottenham Court Road.
 

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
I reckon a lot of people who get on/off the Central at Stratford or Liverpool St will change their journey pattern.
 

swt_passenger

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Apr 2010
Messages
25,973
I'm not sure if necessarily that many people using the Central line will switch because the line is of minimal utility to people currently using Holborn or Oxford Circus. About the only station I anticipate shedding a fair number of Central line passengers to Crossrail is Tottenham Court Road.

They intentionally kept clear of Oxford Circus to avoid overwhelming the existing interchanges, but for anyone heading to destinations in the general areas isn't the double ended station at Bond St supposed to provide more options, from the Hanover Square entrance (about 150 yards from Oxford Circus)?
 

rebmcr

Established Member
Joined
15 Nov 2011
Messages
3,527
Location
Cambridge
I live in East London, but have been having to go to Hammersmith in the west recently for work in a secondment (normally I work in the city).

I was thinking while on the H+C line

I've also just started doing exactly the same thing (except normally I'm in the West End). Use the District, it's 10-15mins faster.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
5,379
I wonder if the research and projections have taken into account the induced demand phenomenon.

https://www.wired.com/2014/06/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand/

This is normally associated with building new roads in an attempt to reduce traffic congestion, but I would not be surprised if a similar effect could happen on the railway.

Oh, it will definitely happen. It's exactly the same effect - although with the key difference that induced demand on the railways doesn't harm other people to anything like the same extent that induced demand on the roads does.

In the short term, people will route their commutes differently to take advantage of Crossrail, but will also make new or different leisure/shopping trips because they now can. In the longer term, when people are looking for new jobs or a new place to live, they'll factor in the existence of Crossrail when deciding what places are commutable. So for example, I'd expect that in 5 years' time you'll see people living in Woolwich or Ilford and commuting to Heathrow (currently completely impractical) or living in Hayes or Iver and working in Canary Wharf (also currently quite hard) - all creating induced demand for Crossrail.

(None of that changes that Crossrail is a very good thing - because of the way it improves mobility).

I don't see the demand on the Central line falling too much - I already avoid it most times of day and use the North/South Circle most of the time instead, e.g. Farringdon instead of Chancery Lane and sometimes Holborn, Barbican or Mansion House instead of St. Paul's, get to Oxford Circus via Kings Cross and the Victoria line and so on.

I agree that demand may not fall very much, and actually your post illustrates one reason why: You're avoiding the Central Line, but presumably if it was less busy, you wouldn't avoid it? As some people swap from the Central Line to Crossrail, others will see that the Central Line is less unpleasant, and so rearrange their journeys to fill the gap. The result will still be some reduction in people using the Central Line, but not as much as it would have been without that effect. (It's a phenomenon in roads too: If you build public transport to take some cars off the roads, you actually find the roads don't empty too much because other drivers come in to take advantage of the lower congestion).
 

samuelmorris

Established Member
Joined
18 Jul 2013
Messages
4,992
Location
Brentwood, Essex
Quite possibly, I'm sure Bond Street will cater for a fair proportion of entry/exit but unless it's very well laid out I don't know how many tourists it'll capture, and there's also the lack of direct interchange.
 

PeterC

Established Member
Joined
29 Sep 2014
Messages
3,241
If you build public transport to take some cars off the roads, you actually find the roads don't empty too much because other drivers come in to take advantage of the lower congestion).
The theory is that as well as a market price there is a market time for any journey. As long as there is supressed demand any improvement to the roads will attract more journeys until the journey time goes back to its previous value. The way around this is to provide mass transit that is faster in end to end times than the existing road journey. Sufficient people will then, supposedly, shift modes until the two journey times match.
 

AM9

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
10,216
Location
St Albans
The theory is that as well as a market price there is a market time for any journey. As long as there is supressed demand any improvement to the roads will attract more journeys until the journey time goes back to its previous value. The way around this is to provide mass transit that is faster in end to end times than the existing road journey. Sufficient people will then, supposedly, shift modes until the two journey times match.

Then with various traffic measures create priority access for road public transport over private cars which improves the public transport transit times whilst maintaining the same slower private transport times. That would have the benefit of increasing the potential speed and frequency available to public transport. Bus lanes were introduced when the futility of more cars in cities had not not been recognised. Fortunately, the car-driving populace seems to have learnt at last that transport in cities is about moving all travellers, not a free-for-all.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
13,192
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
In late 2013 Sir Peter Hendy, Commisioner of Transport for the Metropolis said:

"I predict that when Crossrail opens in 2018 it will be immediately full. The people who predicted that it will take all the traffic out of Oxford Street or that we’ll be able to sit down on the Central Line in the rush hour will be wrong. It will just be full up with people."

Article on London Reconnections:

http://www.londonreconnections.com/2014/happens-crossrail-full-part-1-problem/

My understanding is the Crossrail platforms will have space for at least one further carriage to be added later. If even the likes of Hendy are predicting Crossrail to be immediately full, why isn't this being arranged now? Surely it's cheaper in the long run to buy everything now, rather than having to add at a later date?
 

jon0844

Veteran Member
Joined
1 Feb 2009
Messages
25,021
Location
UK
My understanding is the Crossrail platforms will have space for at least one further carriage to be added later. If even the likes of Hendy are predicting Crossrail to be immediately full, why isn't this being arranged now? Surely it's cheaper in the long run to buy everything now, rather than having to add at a later date?
Probably advantageous to wait a bit then do a big announcement later, no doubt when a mayor finds it most advantageous.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
14,597
My understanding is the Crossrail platforms will have space for at least one further carriage to be added later. If even the likes of Hendy are predicting Crossrail to be immediately full, why isn't this being arranged now? Surely it's cheaper in the long run to buy everything now, rather than having to add at a later date?

Two carriages, to be precise, but only within the central tunnelled stations and associated infrastructure (e.g. turnback sidings)

On the surface, any works to build Crossrail where possible passively provided for the two extra carriages, except in a few cases where the added cost of doing so would have been prohibitive.

Where no work has been done at all, no passive provision has been provided.

And there would be the extra siding/depot space for the extra rolling stock.

Adding all the above from Day One may have rendered the total cost unaffordable (even if it were cheaper in the long run)
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
13,192
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Probably advantageous to wait a bit then do a big announcement later, no doubt when a mayor finds it most advantageous.

You're getting as cynical as me! ;)

Probably spot on though.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Two carriages, to be precise, but only within the central tunnelled stations and associated infrastructure (e.g. turnback sidings)

On the surface, any works to build Crossrail where possible passively provided for the two extra carriages, except in a few cases where the added cost of doing so would have been prohibitive.

Where no work has been done at all, no passive provision has been provided.

And there would be the extra siding/depot space for the extra rolling stock.

Adding all the above from Day One may have rendered the total cost unaffordable (even if it were cheaper in the long run)

It's a silly, if understandable, position -- having to revisit all the worksites to add extra length will work out a lot more expensive in the long run.

DLR and East London Line are both examples where the incremental approach has resulted in difficult work later on. New Cross Gate Depot had to be expensively reconfigured, and the DLR has cost a small fortune over the years having to go back and modify (at best)/start again (at worse) works already carried out.
 

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
It's the way governments work. Look at EGIT (appropriately named).
 

Busaholic

Established Member
Joined
7 Jun 2014
Messages
10,526
I travelled on DLR on its first day, a Sunday, and had to wait for the fourth train in order to get on, and that was at the Island Gardens terminus! It was overloaded from day one and has remained that way, just like Overground over the East London Line and down into south London. Abbey Wood and Woolwich will see huge usage, not all of it abstracted from SouthEastern and DLR, although it may not happen from day one. I can't really imagine huge extra numbers from the Shenfield branch, although possibly the District might lose some from its eastern extremities.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
19,678
I travelled on DLR on its first day, a Sunday, and had to wait for the fourth train in order to get on, and that was at the Island Gardens terminus! It was overloaded from day one and has remained that way, just like Overground over the East London Line and down into south London.

That's interesting, because I also went on the DLR in the first week of opening, on a weekday afternoon, and had a whole train to myself (aside from the train captain, and my dad).

And then I went on the new section of the ELL repeatedly in the two months after opening, peak and off peak, and never failed to get a seat.

It is safe to assume that patronage will build up over time.
 

bicbasher

Established Member
Joined
14 May 2010
Messages
1,567
Location
London
I remember the ELL extension to West Croydon/Crystal Palace being busy on the first Sunday, then there was the honeymoon period when I could get a seat on a peak service from Forest Hill, that vanished after around 4 months when they were full to the brim.

However I'll use Crossrail from Stratford to get to Whitechapel instead of using the Central and then the District/H&C from Mile End.
 

AM9

Established Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
10,216
Location
St Albans
I remember the ELL extension to West Croydon/Crystal Palace being busy on the first Sunday, then there was the honeymoon period when I could get a seat on a peak service from Forest Hill, that vanished after around 4 months when they were full to the brim.

However I'll use Crossrail from Stratford to get to Whitechapel instead of using the Central and then the District/H&C from Mile End.

That's right, Crossrail will have Central Line passengers piling on at Stratford, Abbey Wood, Farringdon and Ealing Broadway. The core section will be packed in the peaks.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top