Is Heathrow Express a good use of resources?

[HSTEd]

Whilst HEX does not directly consume paths between London and Reading, it is almost certain that elimination of HEX would enable a timetable recast that would make additional paths available for other services.
It removes an optimisation constraint - 100mph trains on the fast get in the way.

 

[johnnychips]

...according to HEX 100 million people have bored a train over the life of Heathrow Express...

...presumably by showing it their holiday photos

 

[fowler9]

...presumably by showing it their holiday photos

Ha ha. Here is me and the lads in the pool, here is me and the lads at a bar........ Trying to picture a bored HEX.

 

[Kite159]

Ha ha. Here is me and the lads in the pool, here is me and the lads at a bar........ Trying to picture a bored HEX.

Probably one sat behind a late running HST building up speed out of Paddington

 

[coppercapped]

Whilst HEX does not directly consume paths between London and Reading, it is almost certain that elimination of HEX would enable a timetable recast that would make additional paths available for other services.
It removes an optimisation constraint - 100mph trains on the fast get in the way.

I don't know whether you have been following the discussion in this thread very closely, but it has already been pointed out that the 'gaps' created in the train pattern west of Airport Junction where the HEx trains diverge for Heathrow make calls at Slough (by the limited stop Oxford trains), Maidenhead and Twyford on the Mains possible.

The 100mph running is, in the down direction at least not an issue in terms of restricting the number of paths, Airport Junction is less than 12 miles from Paddington and there is a 50mph speed limit out to the two mile post at Kensal Green. From there to the start of the 125mph limit at Acton Yard the limit is 100mph. The 125mph stretch to Airport Junction turnout at 11 miles and 15 chains is only just over 6 1/2 miles and whether that is run at 100 or 125mph makes no difference to track capacity.

There might be more of an issue in the Up direction, but again speed is limited to 100mph or less from 4 miles 60 chains so the effect of speed differentials is minor. What is more of an issue is the inability of the signalling system to interleave trains from the Airport Branch and the Main Line without delays. But this is a general problem which can also be seen at Didcot East Junction.

 

[InFoTan]

I highly doubt most people will prefer to use an already crowded longitudinal seated train with no toilets when travelling from Paddington to Heathrow.

It's only 22 minutes from Paddington to Heathrow (T2 & T3) on a stopping train, so toilets shouldn't really be an issue. Once the service becomes more frequent I'd expect more people to choose it over the Heathrow Express (though we still don't know the fares to be charged).

Until December 2019 the trains will be empty at Paddington, and after that the full Crossrail service will be much more attractive to many people. I do agree that people who need to get exactly from Paddington to Heathrow might still prefer the HEx, but the question is how many people will choose that as part of their journey when there are faster and/or cheaper options end-to-end.

 

[matt_world2004]

An educated guess on the Heathrow TfL Rail fares, Oyster will be priced at half the price of a return carnet between Hayes & Harlington and Heathrow Central for journeys between Acton Mainline/West Drayton and Heathrow Central off peak. With a LUL zone 1 premium for journeys to Paddington and beyond. Zones beyond 6 will be priced as an standard zonal add on for these destinations

This pricing structure ensures no one loses out with the transition to oyster while at the same time allowing Heathrow to save face on the airport premium. The oyster card arguably serves the same purpose as a carnet ticket

Paper tickets and oyster pay as you go fares will remain frozen or rise at a lower rate until there is parity with zone 6 fares at that point it will be merged into zone 6 and there will be an easement allowing West Drayton to heathrow to be charged at the zone 6 fare in preperation for western rail access

 

[stevekp]

It's only 22 minutes from Paddington to Heathrow (T2 & T3) on a stopping train, so toilets shouldn't really be an issue. Once the service becomes more frequent I'd expect more people to choose it over the Heathrow Express (though we still don't know the fares to be charged).

Exactly, I for one would definitely not use the Heathrow Express in those circumstances. I don't think most other people would either. It will end up being used only by wealthy first-class/business travellers, which are a minority of airport users.

What also might be of interest, travelling in from the West, is how feasible it will be (in the absence of the Heathrow Western access route), to get crossrail from Reading and then change at Hayes, to reach Heathrow. I wonder if that would be better/more convenient than the current RailAir offering from Reading?

 

[Cosmicismsx]

I don't know whether you have been following the discussion in this thread very closely, but it has already been pointed out that the 'gaps' created in the train pattern west of Airport Junction where the HEx trains diverge for Heathrow make calls at Slough (by the limited stop Oxford trains), Maidenhead and Twyford on the Mains possible.

In the Evening peak, not a single fast train stops at Slough. All trains are fast to Reading, apart from one an hour which is fast to Newbury or Didcot I believe.

 

[Mintona]

In the Evening peak, not a single fast train stops at Slough. All trains are fast to Reading, apart from one an hour which is fast to Newbury or Didcot I believe.

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C56005/2018/02/23/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C56004/2018/02/23/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/C55839/2018/02/23/advanced

 

[Ianno87]

In the Evening peak, not a single fast train stops at Slough. All trains are fast to Reading, apart from one an hour which is fast to Newbury or Didcot I believe.

No trains call at Slough on the Main Line, in the peak direction, would be the correct (or a more correct) statement.

 

[nottsnurse]

When Crossrail/EWR is finished I hope there are more suitable options available for people coming from the North. Because Hex is really really over priced and anyone from the north of London really wants a direct train rather than having to change somewhere in London.

Edit - In another thread it was stated that the rail link was paid for by the airport and the cost reflects a toll for repayment of the rail link itself. Then that same person stated it should be lobbied that cars pay this toll so more people use the train instead, therefore bringing down the cost of a Hex ticket. And I believe that is the right way forward..

So you recognise that those coming from 'the north" would rather have a direct service that doesn't require changing in London, but then state that people who drive to Heathrow (who could well be from "the north") should subsidise a reduced ticket price for the HEX?

 

[coppercapped]

Exactly, I for one would definitely not use the Heathrow Express in those circumstances. I don't think most other people would either. It will end up being used only by wealthy first-class/business travellers, which are a minority of airport users.

Whether you personally decide to use HEx or not is irrelevant - what counts are the choices made by the thousands of people who use Heathrow each day.

The London Assembly held a meeting in 2011 during which various aspects of travel to and from Heathrow were discussed. The Minutes are available and one section discussed Crossrail:

Murad Qureshi AM asked what BAA was expecting from Crossrail. Simon Earles stated that the current expectation was for four trains per hour from late 2019, replacing the current Heathrow Connect service. Network Rail has identified an issue of capacity on the Great Western Main Line, with an unmet demand of 5,000 passengers per day from the late 2010s to the mid-2020s. Network Rail has an option to increase Crossrail services from the planned four per hour to ten per hour, which would remove the Heathrow Express service. Four of these might be services that called at a smaller number of intermediate stations. However, BAA Heathrow estimated that mode share for rail would fall by three per cent if the non-stop Heathrow Express service was withdrawn, because of the number of passengers who use the service for its speed. BAA Heathrow has made representations to the Department for Transport and Office of Rail Regulation for more capacity on the Great Western Main Line.

This 3% does not sound a lot, but equates to 800,000 to 900,000 car journeys a year - see paragraph 19 of the Minutes where it is stated that a 3.5% modal shift to rail enabled by the (now abandoned) Airtrack proposal amounts to one million vehicles a year.
You are, in effect, saying that these extra vehicles don't matter.

What also might be of interest, travelling in from the West, is how feasible it will be (in the absence of the Heathrow Western access route), to get Crossrail from Reading and then change at Hayes, to reach Heathrow. I wonder if that would be better/more convenient than the current RailAir offering from Reading?

It entirely depends which Terminal at Heathrow you need to get to. The Railair link to Terminal 5 from Reading is faster than an express train to Paddington and then HEx to Terminal 5. However, because the coach serves Terminal 5 first and then goes to the Central Area the rail route via Paddington to Terminals 1, 2 and 3 is marginally quicker - but does involve a change.
Crossrail is not a fast service from Reading - it will call at all, or most, stations on the way to Hayes. Its website claims Reading to Hayes will take 33 minutes with another 13mins on to Terminal 5. If one allows 4 to 5 minutes to cross the lines (with a bag or two) and then wait on average 7.5 minutes (half the service interval) Reading to Terminal 5 would take about 57 or 58 minutes. Railair takes about 55 minutes in the peaks and 40 minutes off-peak. Rail involves a change - the coach doesn't and the driver loads and unloads your bags.

So, you pays your money and you makes your choice...

 

[InFoTan]

Whether you personally decide to use HEx or not is irrelevant - what counts are the choices made by the thousands of people who use Heathrow each day.

The London Assembly held a meeting in 2011 during which various aspects of travel to and from Heathrow were discussed. The Minutes are available and one section discussed Crossrail:

However, BAA Heathrow estimated that mode share for rail would fall by three per cent if the non-stop Heathrow Express service was withdrawn, because of the number of passengers who use the service for its speed.

This 3% does not sound a lot, but equates to 800,000 to 900,000 car journeys a year - see paragraph 19 of the Minutes where it is stated that a 3.5% modal shift to rail enabled by the (now abandoned) Airtrack proposal amounts to one million vehicles a year.
You are, in effect, saying that these extra vehicles don't matter.

So, you pays your money and you makes your choice...

Everyone has their opinions, and it's no surprise that the owners of the airport would argue in favour of the Heathrow Express. However, they don't know how many passengers would choose an alternative method of transport, and Crossrail will surely increase the total number of people going to the airport by rail.

As for speed, the Airport Express in Hong Kong takes 24 minutes from Central to the airport (two stops, no toilets, but there is luggage space and probably it's a bit more comfortable). So 22 minutes from Paddington or 26 minutes from Bond Street shouldn't be a problem.

 

[xotGD]

The few times that I have travelled on Heathrow Express I have generally seen two types of passengers:

1. Business people on expenses
2. Overseas tourists who don't realise that there are cheaper ways to get into town.

Group 2 will benefit from a well publicised lower cost Crossrail option. Group 1 will take Crossrail if it is more convenient for them or stick with the Express if they regard that as their better option.

It all adds up to a significant decline in usage of the Express service, perhaps to the point where the service is withdrawn on commercial grounds. Certainly under a centrally planned railway it would be got rid of as a partial duplication of the new Crossrail service.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

The few times that I have travelled on Heathrow Express I have generally seen two types of passengers:

1. Business people on expenses
2. Overseas tourists who don't realise that there are cheaper ways to get into town.

Group 2 will benefit from a well publicised lower cost Crossrail option. Group 1 will take Crossrail if it is more convenient for them or stick with the Express if they regard that as their better option.

It all adds up to a significant decline in usage of the Express service, perhaps to the point where the service is withdrawn on commercial grounds. Certainly under a centrally planned railway it would be got rid of as a partial duplication of the new Crossrail service.

While those may seem like fair assumptions it's also possible that many of those people would much prefer the comfort of HEX combined with a taxi to/from Paddington rather than using what will seem like just a "metro" type train. As has been said repeatedly in this thread there are plenty of people who are more than willing to pay the higher price of using HEX+taxi because compared to the overall cost of their trip it's peanuts. To some extent it comes down to whether or not you believe people are entitled to make such choices as opposed to the wider need for the capacity taken by HEX. As things stand it would appear quite reasonable to assess the situation when HAL's current access agreement expires. I also note that you admit to having used HEX yourself on more than one occasion...

 

[coppercapped]

Everyone has their opinions, and it's no surprise that the owners of the airport would argue in favour of the Heathrow Express. However, they don't know how many passengers would choose an alternative method of transport, and Crossrail will surely increase the total number of people going to the airport by rail.

As for speed, the Airport Express in Hong Kong takes 24 minutes from Central to the airport (two stops, no toilets, but there is luggage space and probably it's a bit more comfortable). So 22 minutes from Paddington or 26 minutes from Bond Street shouldn't be a problem.

The few times that I have travelled on Heathrow Express I have generally seen two types of passengers:

1. Business people on expenses
2. Overseas tourists who don't realise that there are cheaper ways to get into town.

Group 2 will benefit from a well publicised lower cost Crossrail option. Group 1 will take Crossrail if it is more convenient for them or stick with the Express if they regard that as their better option.

It all adds up to a significant decline in usage of the Express service, perhaps to the point where the service is withdrawn on commercial grounds. Certainly under a centrally planned railway it would be got rid of as a partial duplication of the new Crossrail service.

I think it should be accepted that Heathrow Airports understands its customers and their needs quite well - they are, after all, its business. The figures quoted in the Minutes referred to in my post concerning modal splits between rail and road were not plucked out of the air but based on an on-going series of surveys about origins/destinations and modes of surface transport used to reach and leave the airport. But of course nobody will know for certain how traffic will split until the alternative services are operating.

Paragraph 22 of the Minutes states, inter alia:

Theo Panayi indicated that many in-bound passengers make decisions about onward travel as they walk out of the baggage hall. Tickets for the Heathrow Express services were now sold in the baggage hall. The added advantage of encouraging passengers to use the service is that once they have tried it they are more likely to become repeat users. Simon Earles commented that at peak times passengers often had to stand on the Heathrow Express.

One could argue that Heathrow Connect tickets should be as readily available in the baggage halls as the HEx tickets. However even if they were, because part of the cost of both types of tickets is a component which services the cost of building the tunnels between Hayes and the airport and the airport Terminal stations, Heathrow Airport is indifferent as to whether the passenger takes HEx or HConn as far as the infrastructure cost is concerned. HAL is interested in making the passengers' onward journeys as hassle-free as possible.

I am not convinced that Crossrail alone, even if the frequency doubles compared to Connect, will very significantly increase the number of passengers travelling by rail between London and Heathrow. Until a third runway is built Heathrow is capacity limited, it already runs at about 98% of its theoretical capacity for aircraft movements per year so very few additional flights - and therefore air passengers - are likely. There will of course be a gentle increase in capacity as smaller aircraft are phased out but this is a process which takes years. The geographic spread of the sources and destinations of the passengers is also unlikely to change quickly so the addressable market post-Crossrail will not be greatly different to the current one. The same paragraph of the Minutes also states that:

Heathrow Express currently carried 5.5 million passengers per year and Heathrow Connect carries 400,000 passengers.

Suppose that doubling HConn's train frequency and extending it through the Central Line corridor in London triples the present passenger count (to 1.2 million per year), this would still leave HEx carrying 4.7 million people a year assuming there is no growth in the air passenger market.

Two further points:

• HAL expects Crossrail to take traffic from the Piccadilly Line rather than HEx
• Extending rail services to the west and south-west of the airport would address a new market which is poorly served by rail at the moment and increase rail's share of the total number of people travelling to and from Heathrow.

Quantitative data is very useful to help separate 'conclusions' from 'opinions'.
Note: added last but one paragraph with bullet points in edit.

 

[HowardGWR]

"However, BAA Heathrow estimated that mode share for rail would fall by three per cent if the non-stop Heathrow Express service was withdrawn, because of the number of passengers who use the service for its speed. "
(From LA minutes, 2011, thanks coppercapped)

Well, they would wouldn't they? That was a long time ago, now. I think planners should be looking forward to the opening of OOC in 2026, and probably are. I can't see a Hex surviving that.

 

[fowler9]

I don't think Heathrow Express is the best use of resources. It is the first thing that pops up if you google getting from Heathrow to Central London which probably boosts passenger numbers. If you google getting from JLA to Liverpool city centre the first two options are the 86A bus which is the joint cheapest and the 500 bus which claims to have luxury seats (It doesn't). The quickest and joint cheapest journey (Ignoring taxis which aren't cheap) is the 82A bus which is way down the list. I tend to ignore the official advice on travelling to airports.

 

[matt_world2004]

"However, BAA Heathrow estimated that mode share for rail would fall by three per cent if the non-stop Heathrow Express service was withdrawn, because of the number of passengers who use the service for its speed. "
(From LA minutes, 2011, thanks coppercapped)

Well, they would wouldn't they? That was a long time ago, now. I think planners should be looking forward to the opening of OOC in 2026, and probably are. I can't see a Hex surviving that.

I would be interested in the methodology of this survey did to get that result. I find it highly unlikely that people would pay an extra £20+ to save 6 minutes off a journey(Which depending on where they are going and what time the crossrail train arrives would likely be lost anyway)

 

[coppercapped]

"However, BAA Heathrow estimated that mode share for rail would fall by three per cent if the non-stop Heathrow Express service was withdrawn, because of the number of passengers who use the service for its speed. "
(From LA minutes, 2011, thanks coppercapped)

Well, they would wouldn't they? That was a long time ago, now. I think planners should be looking forward to the opening of OOC in 2026, and probably are. I can't see a Hex surviving that.

We are going round in circles...

The Track Access contract between, originally, BAA and BR expires in 2023. What happens after that depends on the results of negotiations between the parties involved and what, if any, rail infrastructure has been planned or built west and/or southwest of the airport. However if a fast service to Paddington is still seen to be needed then I see no reason why a stop at OOC for son-of-HEx to connect into or out of HS2 is not possible.

I would point out, however, that relocation of the HEx depot from OOC to Langley (Bucks.) is one of the HS2 work packages. Someone is already looking forward...

I would be interested in the methodology of this survey did to get that result. I find it highly unlikely that people would pay an extra £20+ to save 6 minutes off a journey(Which depending on where they are going and what time the crossrail train arrives would likely be lost anyway)

There's no need to understand the methods used in the survey - 5.5 million people a year do pay a premium. The fact is that more than 6 million people used HEx last year against some half a million on HConn shows that people are prepared to pay for the comfort, speed and convenience. You cannot seriously assert that none of these people were ignorant of the existence of the Piccadilly Line or HConn?

As I said in my previous post, even if the HConn passenger count triples as HConn transmogrifies into Crossrail, it still leaves a large number on the premium service.

 

[hwl]

I think it should be accepted that Heathrow Airports understands its customers and their needs quite well - they are, after all, its business. The figures quoted in the Minutes referred to in my post concerning modal splits between rail and road were not plucked out of the air but based on an on-going series of surveys about origins/destinations and modes of surface transport used to reach and leave the airport. But of course nobody will know for certain how traffic will split until the alternative services are operating.

Paragraph 22 of the Minutes states, inter alia:

One could argue that Heathrow Connect tickets should be as readily available in the baggage halls as the HEx tickets. However even if they were, because part of the cost of both types of tickets is a component which services the cost of building the tunnels between Hayes and the airport and the airport Terminal stations, Heathrow Airport is indifferent as to whether the passenger takes HEx or HConn as far as the infrastructure cost is concerned. HAL is interested in making the passengers' onward journeys as hassle-free as possible.

I am not convinced that Crossrail alone, even if the frequency doubles compared to Connect, will very significantly increase the number of passengers travelling by rail between London and Heathrow. Until a third runway is built Heathrow is capacity limited, it already runs at about 98% of its theoretical capacity for aircraft movements per year so very few additional flights - and therefore air passengers - are likely. There will of course be a gentle increase in capacity as smaller aircraft are phased out but this is a process which takes years. The geographic spread of the sources and destinations of the passengers is also unlikely to change quickly. The same paragraph of the Minutes also states that:
Suppose that doubling HConn's train frequency and extending it through the Central Line corridor in London triples the present passenger count (to 1.2 million per year), this would still leave HEx carrying 4.7 million people a year assuming there is no growth in the air passenger market.

Quantitative data is very useful to help separate 'conclusions' from 'opinions'.

Heathrow knew it customers quite well would be a better statement. The 2011 work presumably didn't mention the current proposed service level for Crossrail to passengers or the timings or improved connectivity providing savings on interchange at Paddington so real data would be comparing a well marketed Crossrail against HEx post December 2019
Crossrail to Heathrow will now be 6 tph so average wait at T123 is theoretically 5 minutes so comparing a 2tph Connect vs HEx in 2011 and 6tph Crossrail against HEx is very different.
Now Offer passengers 10tph Crossrail vs 4tph HEx and 6tph Crossrail and see what they want....

 

[matt_world2004]

As I said in my previous post, even if the HConn passenger count triples as HConn transmogrifies into Crossrail, it still leaves a large number on the premium service.

But the frequency of the Heathrow Connect as Crossrail is tripling.There will also be a relatively large demographic of passengers who hold freedom passes who will be entitled to free travel on Crossrail to Heathrow when it starts. For them the price differential between Crossrail and HEX is going to be even greater.

I think its quite wishful thinking for Heathrow to assume that Crossrail will abstract passengers from the picadilly line and not the HEX given that the picadilly line will be serving different sections of London to Crossrail with no bisection point.

 

[The Ham]

Heathrow knew it customers quite well would be a better statement. The 2011 work presumably didn't mention the current proposed service level for Crossrail to passengers or the timings or improved connectivity providing savings on interchange at Paddington so real data would be comparing a well marketed Crossrail against HEx post December 2019
Crossrail to Heathrow will now be 6 tph so average wait at T123 is theoretically 5 minutes so comparing a 2tph Connect vs HEx in 2011 and 6tph Crossrail against HEx is very different.
Now Offer passengers 10tph Crossrail vs 4tph HEx and 6tph Crossrail and see what they want....

In the 7 years since 2011 (probably 6 years and some months) passenger numbers have gone up:

We are currently experiencing a 9% growth in passenger numbers year-on-year.

https://londonist.com/london/transport/is-crossrail-going-to-obliterate-the-heathrow-express

As such since 2011 (assuming that level has been consistent all that time) passenger numbers could have gone up from 5.5 million to 7.3 million. Even from 2016 (the year of the changes to ticket prices) passenger numbers could have gone up by about 1 million.

With that sort of backdrop, even if HEX sees a 50% drop in passengers there's scope that it will still see passenger numbers that it's seen this centaury after Crossrail opens. As such, that would still be worth running HEX (even with lower ticket prices).

The question is, even with that growth is there a point at which the impact of Crossrail does then mean that HEX starts making a loss so that Heathrow then starts to considering stopping running HEX?

However, my guess would be that it would need to be quite a significant impact. As such those who think that Crossrail will certainly kill HEX could be in for a shock.

However, I'm willing to accept that Crossrail could mean the end for HEX.

 

[coppercapped]

In the 7 years since 2011 (probably 6 years and some months) passenger numbers have gone up:



https://londonist.com/london/transport/is-crossrail-going-to-obliterate-the-heathrow-express

As such since 2011 (assuming that level has been consistent all that time) passenger numbers could have gone up from 5.5 million to 7.3 million. Even from 2016 (the year of the changes to ticket prices) passenger numbers could have gone up by about 1 million.

With that sort of backdrop, even if HEX sees a 50% drop in passengers there's scope that it will still see passenger numbers that it's seen this centaury after Crossrail opens. As such, that would still be worth running HEX (even with lower ticket prices).

The question is, even with that growth is there a point at which the impact of Crossrail does then mean that HEX starts making a loss so that Heathrow then starts to considering stopping running HEX?

However, my guess would be that it would need to be quite a significant impact. As such those who think that Crossrail will certainly kill HEX could be in for a shock.

However, I'm willing to accept that Crossrail could mean the end for HEX.

Thank you, this has been the point I've been trying to make.
As I keep writing, after 2023 the situation may be very different - or it may not.

But the frequency of the Heathrow Connect as Crossrail is tripling.There will also be a relatively large demographic of passengers who hold freedom passes who will be entitled to free travel on Crossrail to Heathrow when it starts. For them the price differential between Crossrail and HEX is going to be even greater.

I think its quite wishful thinking for Heathrow to assume that Crossrail will abstract passengers from the picadilly line and not the HEX given that the picadilly line will be serving different sections of London to Crossrail with no bisection point.

There might very well be a large number of people holding Freedom Passes who will be able to travel to Heathrow for free. The question you have to ask yourself is how many of these holders of Freedom Passes will be flying? And what proportional of air travellers will these flying Freedom Pass holders make up? Will the ability to get to Heathrow for free induce them to make more flights?

Apropos the Piccadilly Line not serving the same area of London as Crossrail, I suggest that you look at a map. As hotels, offices and homes are not directly beside or above stations people have to do the so-called 'last mile' by taxi, bus or by walking. Paddington is only one and a quarter miles from Knightsbridge and the further east one goes the closer together are the stations on the two routes - Leicester Square and Tottenham Court Road are only a quarter of a mile apart and even Farringdon to Kings Cross is only a fraction over a mile. In my book that is the same section of London.

 

[matt_world2004]

Thank you, this has been the point I've been trying to make.
As I keep writing, after 2023 the situation may be very different - or it may not.

There might very well be a large number of people holding Freedom Passes who will be able to travel to Heathrow for free. The question you have to ask yourself is how many of these holders of Freedom Passes will be flying? And what proportional of air travellers will these flying Freedom Pass holders make up? Will the ability to get to Heathrow for free induce them to make more flights?

Apropos the Piccadilly Line not serving the same area of London as Crossrail, I suggest that you look at a map. As hotels, offices and homes are not directly beside or above stations people have to do the so-called 'last mile' by taxi, bus or by walking. Paddington is only one and a quarter miles from Knightsbridge and the further east one goes the closer together are the stations on the two routes - Leicester Square and Tottenham Court Road are only a quarter of a mile apart and even Farringdon to Kings Cross is only a fraction over a mile. In my book that is the same section of London.

Yes a rail service that serves the airport and goes across London will serve more hotels and be nore advantagous to the tourist and business market than one that doesnt.I dont know why someone hasn't thought of building one before. An across rail .One thag serves the shopling districts of Oxford Circus and the business districts of Canary wharf and liverpool street such an service will much better serve the needs of tourists.Than a fast service that goes to the western edge of zone 1.

A mile and a half is quite a distance for zone 1.

 

[InFoTan]

Is there any data to show how many people travel from the airport on Heathrow Express compared to the other direction? Heathrow Airport heavily promote HEx in the departure area, and I'm sure a lot of visitors do then use it again, but others will discover the alternatives whilst in London. Obviously the Elizabeth Line has much better branding than Heathrow Connect so that should make a difference.

 

[xotGD]

While those may seem like fair assumptions it's also possible that many of those people would much prefer the comfort of HEX combined with a taxi to/from Paddington rather than using what will seem like just a "metro" type train. As has been said repeatedly in this thread there are plenty of people who are more than willing to pay the higher price of using HEX+taxi because compared to the overall cost of their trip it's peanuts. To some extent it comes down to whether or not you believe people are entitled to make such choices as opposed to the wider need for the capacity taken by HEX. As things stand it would appear quite reasonable to assess the situation when HAL's current access agreement expires. I also note that you admit to having used HEX yourself on more than one occasion...

When I have used HEX I have fitted into my category 1 - travelling on company expenses. When I have been paying it has either been Connect or Piccadilly Line.

Clearly the opening of Crossrail isn't going to result in a modal shift TO HEX, so the only way is down, in terms of market share. Of course, if R3 gets built, a smaller slice of a bigger pie could still mean an increase in passenger numbers, but it will be a big ask.

 

[edwin_m]

From a passenger service point of view I'd say there is a good justification to provide a fast service between London and Heathrow just as there is to the less busy airports at Gatwick and Stansted. Removing HEx would be equivalent to withdrawing Gatwick Express and preventing Gatwick passengers using the Victoria fasts, or making the Stansted Express call at most of the intermediate stations. I don't think anyone would welcome a combination of airport passengers and inner-suburban commuters trying to use the same service (Charles de Gaulle is an illustration of why not).

Equally there are good reasons to provide stopping services to all three airports, particularly for people who live in the suburbs they pass through including Airport employees. The provision of an attractor at the outer end of these routes (the airport) leads to a more balanced loading than would otherwise be the case, as well as improving the airport's surface access public transport mode share at relatively low cost.

I'd therefore suggest that the post-Crossrail London to Heathrow service pattern is about right, and the question is more about whether the rather extreme luxury and the rather extreme fare on HEx can be justified. A Western or Southern rail link to Heathrow is something the airport ought to welcome as it further benefits the surface access mode share, and one or both will almost certainly happen at some stage. But for capacity reasons this will require the HEx paths to continue beyond the airport on something that is more akin to a typical suburban service, and if so the ultra-low-density layout of the HEx would be something of an anomaly when operating a more "normal" rail route with a mix of airport and other passengers. There is also the technical issue that the HEx trains probably aren't convertible to DC supply, which would probably be essential to operate a southern link, so if this is the chosen option the units themselves will be unsuitable.

For these reasons and because if it remains the same HEx will lose some mode share to Crossrail, I would expect to see HEx evolve from today's rather ostentatious offerning into a less differentiated service rather similar to Gatwick Express. But I think while Gatwick Express should remove its premium fare to enourage airport passengers off the Brighton fasts, there is a case for HEx to retain a more modest premium between Heathrow and Paddington to reflect the fact it will genuinely still be the fastest option for many airport passengers. The use of the same trains for other journeys such as Woking to Old Oak for HS2 interchange will offset the likely reduction in Heathrow-Paddington passengers.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

But where a premium can be justified then there is every chance that one will exist, as other posters have demonstrated.

Sydney T-Link even charges you $6.20 for the 2-minute trip under the runway between international and domestic airport terminals.