Is it possible that the new state owned Scotrail franchise will ditch the HST project when the franchise with Abellio ends?

[Blindtraveler]

moderator note - split from this thread:

ScotRail HST Introduction - Updates & Discussion

A close friend of mine came across a set of documents lying on the table in a staff bothy regarding in-depth details of the refurbishment plan for the ScotRail HST fleet. I can't find any released PDFs online nor on this forum, so I've started this thread dedicated to the ScotRail HST arrival...

www.railforums.co.uk

And just in time for Abellio hand the keys back to transport Scotland for the new Scottish government at arm's-length company to come in and decide that the HST project is hemorrhaging too much money from the public purse and send them all for scrap. Cynical? Definitely. Might happen? Again I would say it very possible

 

[najaB]

And just in time for Abellio hand the keys back to transport Scotland for the new Scottish government at arm's-length company to come in and decide that the HST project is hemorrhaging too much money from the public purse and send them all for scrap.

Not likely, at least in the short term as there isn't a fleet of DMUs available to replace them with. What's more likely is that the order date for their bi-mode replacements will be brought forwards with the acceptance that they'll be spending more time running in diesel mode than they would have liked.

 

[Dfatcontroller]

And just in time for Abellio hand the keys back to transport Scotland for the new Scottish government at arm's-length company to come in and decide that the HST project is hemorrhaging too much money from the public purse and send them all for scrap. Cynical? Definitely. Might happen? Again I would say it very possible

Cynical me would be that the new arms-length "owner" will claim the success for the depot opening!

 

[Goldromans]

What's more likely is that the order date for their bi-mode replacements will be brought forwards with the acceptance that they'll be spending more time running in diesel mode than they would have liked.

ScotRail won’t be ordering diesel bi-modes. Much more likely to be electric trains with sufficient battery power to work along with discontinuous electrification. But agree that any interim HST replacement is unrealistic.

 

[InOban]

Cynical me would be that the new arms-length "owner" will claim the success for the depot opening!

Well Transport Scotland is paying for it one way or another.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And just in time for Abellio hand the keys back to transport Scotland for the new Scottish government at arm's-length company to come in and decide that the HST project is hemorrhaging too much money from the public purse and send them all for scrap. Cynical? Definitely. Might happen? Again I would say it very possible

There aren't enough other DMUs to scrap them now. Advancement of their replacement with 80x or similar would be sensible, though.

 

[najaB]

ScotRail won’t be ordering diesel bi-modes. Much more likely to be electric trains with sufficient battery power to work along with discontinuous electrification. But agree that any interim HST replacement is unrealistic.

That would be the plan for a 2030-ish buy as a lot more of the network will have been wired by then. But an order placed now would need to be able to run from Dunblane to Inverness in self-powered mode, so diesel bi-mode is the only option.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Ok so I haven't done the maths but here goes. When East Midlands get there new trains in the next couple of years, there's going to be a surplus of 222

These could be leased and dedicated to the long-distance work from the Central belt to Aberdeen and Inverness for which they would be pretty well suited. Transport for Wales are due to release a whole pile of as yet and accounted for class 158 which have been refurbished to a similar standard to the ScotRail fleet and with nicer seats in some cases as well well and which could be obtained and run in in formation of semi-fixed for coaches on other services on the inter7city network as it stands today and also used to replace 156 on the likes of Glasgow Dumfries to Carlisle which are are crying out for something a little bit more comfortable

I admit the sprinters are not a long-term option as the entire sprinter fleet will need changing in the next decade but what as the solution for years on ScotRail long-distance has been of a sticking plaster nature with seemingly indiscriminate diagramming of 17th with varying facilities etc as a common feature having just more of the same surely is is no big headache to transport Scotland who who despite all their public press releases have allowed the HST fiasco to rumble on largely unmonitored or so it would appear to the general public,

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd put money on those 158s going to Northern.

222s might indeed be an option as a short term pre-electrification measure.

 

[najaB]

222s might indeed be an option as a short term pre-electrification measure.

ISTR that 22x were ruled out because they're not very kind to the track.

 

[Energy]

Scotland has plans to electrify all of the Inter7City network though this wont be done for 14 years. HSTs can't last that long so I think the question is whether 170s and 158s could cover the non electrified routes until they are electrified, I doubt the Scottish government is too interested in leasing brand new diesel trains after announcing the electrification plan.

 

[najaB]

I doubt the Scottish government is too interested in leasing brand new diesel trains after announcing the electrification plan.

They definitely will not. It'll either be bi-modes now, or battery trains later.

 

[43096]

Ok so I haven't done the maths but here goes. When East Midlands get there new trains in the next couple of years, there's going to be a surplus of 222

These could be leased and dedicated to the long-distance work from the Central belt to Aberdeen and Inverness for which they would be pretty well suited.

So, you'd just bin off the HSTs before the end of their lease? That gets very expensive very quickly - you can't just unilaterally break contracts without a consequence.

 

[Domh245]

ISTR that 22x were ruled out because they're not very kind to the track.

221s possibly, but 222s have lightweight bogies and aren't particularly heavy or light compared to other vehicles. From memory, the 22x generally didn't meet the original specification which was written to rule out underfloor engines, especially ones as loud and vibration inducing as the QSK19

 

[Energy]

They definitely will not. It'll either be bi-modes now, or battery trains later.

I would include bi modes in the no new diesel trains, 755s might get by. The original spec didn't want underfloor engines.

 

[najaB]

I would include bi modes in the no new diesel trains, 755s might get by. The original spec didn't want underfloor engines.

That depends on the bi-mode. The FLIRT design - where the noisy bits are in a separate mini-carriage - would meet the no underfloor engine requirement.

Edit: Just realised that you said 755s! So we're actually saying the same thing. For some reason I pictured 796s instead.

 

[waverley47]

The 22x won't be coming to Scotland. Firstly, TS aren't looking kindly towards the 22x units, with the scotrail franchise spec specifically written to exclude "units with a bad smell" and "units with poor space utilisation".

Secondly, it's all but confirmed that in absence of XC getting any new units in the coming years, all the available 221s will be going there. Most likely they'll be joined by the 222s, however if not, I can imagine there are a couple of franchises which would like some spare diesel units.

Thirdly, ScotRail will never allow any pure diesel units on the network that aren't already there. Any new units (even stopgaps) will be bimode at minimum to take advantage of rolling electrification.

So, will ScotRail ditch the HSTs? Probably, they haven't held up to well and five years on, the plan looks a bit foolish with hindsight. However they've got another five years at least, before some wires go up and any contract is let and units built.

I suspect they'll be made to soldier on for another decade, with the replacement units being ordered around 2027, in service for 2030, and for those to be battery bimodes.

 

[GLC]

221s possibly, but 222s have lightweight bogies and aren't particularly heavy or light compared to other vehicles. From memory, the 22x generally didn't meet the original specification which was written to rule out underfloor engines, especially ones as loud and vibration inducing as the QSK19

Looking at track access charges here, and assuming it’s a case of just adding these numbers up as required, the basic access charge for a even a 9 car Class 222 is lower than a 5 car HST. Voyagers can also run with an engine or two out to save fuel, so presumably would also be cheaper to keep going than thirsty HSTs

 

[hexagon789]

ISTR that 22x were ruled out because they're not very kind to the track.

RA 2 as per 220s from memory.

 

[JonathanH]

Secondly, it's all but confirmed that in absence of XC getting any new units in the coming years, all the available 221s will be going there. Most likely they'll be joined by the 222s, however if not, I can imagine there are a couple of franchises which would like some spare diesel units.

That isn't confirmed at all, especially in a railway needing to reduce costs.

It is equally possible that Cross Country take five of Avanti's 221s to replace the HSTs and turn down the rest of the fleet.

222s to Cross Country as well as 221s seems quite improbable.

The 222 fleet of 27 units is the same fleet size as the HSTs. It is very difficult to see the 222s being of use to any other operator.

In all cases, the extra lease costs, staff costs and maintainance arrangements need to be considered.

 

[Clansman]

Any future procurement for ScotRail for HST replacements will be bi-modes, not cascades. Any cascades to replace the HSTs prior to decarbonisation will take at least two years just to train up staff and get testing done, plus the time taken to procure whatever is going off-lease. By which point you're up to the point when the contract for new trains would be issued ahead of 2025-2030ish.

Transport Scotland last month had advertised for a new head of fleet procurement to oversee the rolling stock programme for decarbonisation including the contract negotiations and specification for new stock to replace the HSTs.

Decarbonisation has been the game changer that pretty much secures the future of the HSTs for the next five years at least.

If for whatever reason the HSTs have to go earlier than 2030, then all ScotRail have to do is extend the lease of the 156s (which are due to be replaced ~2025) and absorb them through Fife and the Borders to allow 170s/158 to cover Aberdeen/Inverness for a few short years.

A quick conversion course for untrained Edinburgh crews and a few more empties penned in to rotate them back to Corkerhill for maintenance. Minimal faff, and no wholesale cascades and the baggage that comes with it. The most likely scenario if the HSTs get binned early, and one that is at ScotRail's fingertips if they needed a contingency in place.

 

[Goldromans]

I just can’t see the HST’s getting replaced before the intended date. Regardless of the faff it’s been getting them into service, they’re here now and will be in full operation by the end of the year. They also provide a new standard for long-distance ScotRail services (buffet with hot food, first class that actually feels first class etc) which will need to be matched going forward, so I can’t see the public accepting a return to inter-urban DMUs. I know the public can’t tell the difference between a 170 and an HST, but they can tell the difference between a nice train and a not nice one. Whatever replaces the HST’s (and for whatever time), it will have to be an inter-city spec train.

 

[Energy]

I just can’t see the HST’s getting replaced before the intended date. Regardless of the faff it’s been getting them into service, they’re here now and will be in full operation by the end of the year. They also provide a new standard for long-distance ScotRail services (buffet with hot food, first class that actually feels first class etc) which will need to be matched going forward, so I can’t see the public accepting a return to inter-urban DMUs. I know the public can’t tell the difference between a 170 and an HST, but they can tell the difference between a nice train and a not nice one. Whatever replaces the HST’s (and for whatever time), it will have to be an inter-city spec train.

How nice are the HSTs? From what I've heard they sound good on paper but IRL are pretty used and feel old.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I just can’t see the HST’s getting replaced before the intended date. Regardless of the faff it’s been getting them into service, they’re here now and will be in full operation by the end of the year. They also provide a new standard for long-distance ScotRail services (buffet with hot food, first class that actually feels first class etc) which will need to be matched going forward, so I can’t see the public accepting a return to inter-urban DMUs. I know the public can’t tell the difference between a 170 and an HST, but they can tell the difference between a nice train and a not nice one. Whatever replaces the HST’s (and for whatever time), it will have to be an inter-city spec train.

Depends what you mean by DMUs. I can't see 170s and 158s back, but an 80x is underfloor-engined and would be a perfectly competent replacement (indeed I'd say the most likely one).

 

[Falcon1200]

How nice are the HSTs? From what I've heard they sound good on paper but IRL are pretty used and feel old.

Having travelled on a few now I would say they are very nice, definitely better than any other form of current traction on the routes they operate. IMHO most passengers would have no idea how old they are !

 

[Goldromans]

Depends what you mean by DMUs. I can't see 170s and 158s back, but an 80x is underfloor-engined and would be a perfectly competent replacement (indeed I'd say the most likely one).

It goes back to the point that ScotRail are almost definitely not going to be getting any new-build diesel trains. Even a bi-mode 80X. The plan seems to be for the new rolling stock to be electric trains with batteries to work with discontinuous electrification. It would be near-impossible (and if possible, likely very expensive) to throw some Diesel engines on there too. No doubt ScotRail want any new-build to be long term, and diesel just doesn’t have a long-term future with ScotRail.

 

[Meerkat]

It goes back to the point that ScotRail are almost definitely not going to be getting any new-build diesel trains. Even a bi-mode 80X. The plan seems to be for the new rolling stock to be electric trains with batteries to work with discontinuous electrification. It would be near-impossible (and if possible, likely very expensive) to throw some Diesel engines on there too. No doubt ScotRail want any new-build to be long term, and diesel just doesn’t have a long-term future with ScotRail.

Unless they start with diesel packs that can be changed for battery packs when the range needed comes down.

 

[waverley47]

Unless they start with diesel packs that can be changed for battery packs when the range needed comes down.

Thou misunderstand the reality. It's not that it's too expensive or not possible.

Scotrail have decided that ordering any new train with a diesel engine (including bimodes) isn't going to happen. It's politically unacceptable and if they're hamstrung with HSTs for a decade to avoid buying new diesel trains, then so be it.

The only diesel trains that will make up part of ScotRail's fleet from this point forwards are the trains that are already there (apart from a few extra 153s if demand requires). Yes, bimodes would be the most logical move if you wanted to replace HSTs today's but they don't.

ScotRail's order books will be whilesale replacement of the Strathclyde fleet with pure suburban EMUs, then battery bimodes to replace 170s and HSTs, then a new battery or hydrogen rural fleet.

Diesel doesn't factor and the optics of ordering any train from this point forwards with a diesel engine would be disastrous.

 

[Meerkat]

Diesel doesn't factor and the optics of ordering any train from this point forwards with a diesel engine would be disastrous.

As bad as the optics of HSTs failing and being replaced with old DMUs rather than modern intercity units?

 

[waverley47]

As bad as the optics of HSTs failing and being replaced with old DMUs rather than modern intercity units?

In ScotRail's eyes, it's a gamble that's worth it.

Lax numbers are down, so you don't need as many HSTs to do the full timetable. Each one can spend longer in the depot, and as crews gain experience they'll keep soldiering on.

They're not particularly unreliable at the moment. Granted, they're also not particularly hard working units at the moment either.

These HSTs will be made to keep working for another decade, whether or not with hindsight it was a good idea to buy them. They're here to stay until they can be replaced with battery bimodes.